patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Keep poundin' em down, they're still wayyy over priced.

The Great Demographic shift has begun. It's inevitable, or as a Hegelian would say, capital H History.

"Did you sell your home yet, Mr. Wallace?"
"Yes, when my neuropathy and my bad knee got worse after my 67th birthday, I couldn't climb the stairs. I simply had to sell my 2 story house for something more manageable. I had hoped to retire in it, but I just couldn't get upstairs."

I would have looked into a stair lift so I could live in the 2 story home. Take out a reverse mortgage if needed to finance the stair lift purchase.

As far as the great demographic change, there will have to be ways to cater to a large population of senior citizens. This will allow them to remain in their homes as long as they reasonably can, which impacts the real estate sales market.

Companies like Visiting Angels will have to innovate and come up with new ideas to support their clients who live independently in their homes, and do not have children to help them with their daily needs like going to the doctor's office or shopping at a local grocery.

I noticed rentals are cooling down such as in Austin and Miami:

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/austin-tx/

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/miami-fl/

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/orlando-fl/

AD says

As far as the great demographic change, there will have to be ways to cater to a large population of senior citizens. This will allow them to remain in their homes as long as they reasonably can, which impacts the real estate sales market.

No one should be building 2 story homes anymore. Make the lots bigger and build ranches. I hate regulations, but 2 story homes are hideous and should be banned. Fire/EMT scanner at work and it's all old people falling during the day. It's literally every 5 minutes. "Older male fell down the stairs, he's breathing but needs an ambulance."

Thinking of this I might pipe in an outlet on the stairs to the basement for a lift that is 40 years out. Laundry is upstairs, but at 80 I probably don't want to fall down the stairs to watch a movie/show if there's anything not totally gay by then.

WookieMan says

AD says
As far as the great demographic change, there will have to be ways to cater to a large population of senior citizens. This will allow them to remain in their homes as long as they reasonably can, which impacts the real estate sales market.

No one should be building 2 story homes anymore. Make the lots bigger and build ranches. I hate regulations, but 2 story homes are hideous and should be banned. Fire/EMT scanner at work and it's all old people falling during the day. It's literally every 5 minutes. "Older male fell down the stairs, he's breathing but needs an ambulance."

Thinking of this I might pipe in an outlet on the stairs to the basement for a lift that is 40 years out. Laundry is upstairs, but at 80 I probably don't want to fall down the stairs to watch a movie/show if there's anything not totally gay by then.

For those "stuck with 2 floor homes like townhomes" , there should be solutions like stair lifts.

This ensures senior citizens are not forced out of their homes and forced to sell during a bad real estate market. This also will not cause an oversupply of homes being sold by senior citizens.

Also the reverse mortgage is another option for them to help them remain in it.

In addition to this, senior citizens living independently at home can get a monitoring device:

https://www.seniorsafetyreviews.com/life-alert-cost-comparison-review/

I like this LifeFone option since it has the call center contact you each day to ensure you are okay.



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I strongly believe that much of the shenanigans we've seen in the past couple of decades are about trying to flood the zone with refugees to avoid a housing crash due to Demographics.

Not just in the US, but in Europe as well. It's the reason for not only the number of Refugees, but for the speed and unwillingness to halt or discuss it.

For the obscene bailouts, and now, the FHA paying of mortgages to avoid foreclosures

There have only been 2 times in the Nation's history where there has been a pronounced decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis.

The first was the Great Depression and the second was the GFC.

In one case we let about 3000 banks fold up and people lost everything. The other we poured trillions into the banking system at the expense of everything else.

If housing prices were to decrease on a nationwide basis again, I would suspect that the government (Fed included) would send out "free money" to inflate the situation away.

AmericanKulak says

I strongly believe that much of the shenanigans we've seen in the past couple of decades are about trying to flood the zone with refugees to avoid a housing crash due to Demographics.

Not just in the US, but in Europe as well. It's the reason for not only the number of Refugees, but for the speed and unwillingness to halt or discuss it.

For the obscene bailouts, and now, the FHA paying of mortgages to avoid foreclosures

And Canada. Especially Canada.

But the other reason is the need for more workers to support retirees. And in Canada & Europe, their Healthcare systems.

This is why we need to move off of funding FICA programs from workers to a broad-based consumption source, like a VAT.

Misc says

There have only been 2 times in the Nation's history where there has been a pronounced decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis.

19th century. Ppl were leaving for the West and that suppressed much of East property values.

DeportLibtards says

This is why we need to move off of funding FICA programs from workers to a broad-based consumption source, like a VAT.

And terminate health insurance, a huge ripoff. Pay cash. Remove big hospital and big pharma and insurance pricing power.

HeadSet says

First of all, unlikely they had $63k lump sum to buy those stocks, as they likely got a mortgage for the home. Secondly, they would be paying rent if they did not buy a home.

@HeadSet the NY Times rent vs buy calculator takes all that into account.

AmericanKulak says

And terminate health insurance, a huge ripoff. Pay cash. Remove big hospital and big pharma and insurance pricing power.

They lobby hard to prevent any of that from happening. Look at the number of medical industries among the top lobbyists:

https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/top-spenders

This is an argument for publicly financed Congressional campaigns, so people can get elected without selling out.

I'm hoping Trump starts a trend as far as making reforms to the medical insurance industry such as through Medicare and Medicaid.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/184968/us-health-expenditure-as-percent-of-gdp-since-1960/

College, health care and housing costs have skyrocketed over the last 25 years , hopefully demographic trends like high school seniors more wanting to go to trade school than college will help gradually reduce the inflation of college costs



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I cherish the American invention of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. No other country on earth has them. Thar's because our forefathers didn't trust bankers a lick.

Everywhere else the mortgages are variable rate after just a few short years.

Misc says

I cherish the American invention of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. No other country on earth has them. Thar's because our forefathers didn't trust bankers a lick.

Everywhere else the mortgages are variable rate after just a few short years.

Seems we have the 30 year because of govt interference in the mortgage markets.

DeportLibtards says

Misc says

I cherish the American invention of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. No other country on earth has them. Thar's because our forefathers didn't trust bankers a lick.

Everywhere else the mortgages are variable rate after just a few short years.

Seems we have the 30 year because of govt interference in the mortgage markets.

Fixed rate mortgage for entire term, good. 30 years, not so much. In average and above average interest rate environments, one winds up spending more on interest than the cost of the house. Self discipline to pay off in 15 years is required, or taking a 15 year out to begin with. Having a maximum threshold of 25-30% of income going towards housing expenses is important to ensure you don’t wind up house poor.

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Scroll down at https://www.zillow.com/research/market-heat-index-34054/

and notice that most zip codes are in Florida for "buyers market"

Panama Ciy Beach, FL is not in the list of "buyers market" as its down about 10% from its all time high price set in 2022:

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/71975/panama-city-beach-fl-32407/

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ForcedTQ says

Self discipline to pay off in 15 years is required, or taking a 15 year out to begin with.

30 years 100% of the time. At minimum round up the payment monthly and toss even more at it when you have extra cash or a bonus.

You live life once. I wanna do cool things for myself and family. A 15 year makes no sense. Save and pay cash or buy though other means. A mortgage loan is not the only way to get a house.

Just the beginning. Florida is doing the usual spike and drop. Lots of people got called back to work in person back up north, or tired of Florida, or are done with hurricanes, or had it with condo boards and insurance costs.

WookieMan says

No one should be building 2 story homes anymore. Make the lots bigger and build ranches. I hate regulations, but 2 story homes are hideous and should be banned. Fire/EMT scanner at work and it's all old people falling during the day. It's literally every 5 minutes. "Older male fell down the stairs, he's breathing but needs an ambulance."

Whether they build them or not, much of the US housing supply is two story. Some folks have their laundry or main bath upstairs and it's too much bother.

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

No one should be building 2 story homes anymore. Make the lots bigger and build ranches. I hate regulations, but 2 story homes are hideous and should be banned. Fire/EMT scanner at work and it's all old people falling during the day. It's literally every 5 minutes. "Older male fell down the stairs, he's breathing but needs an ambulance."

Whether they build them or not, much of the US housing supply is two story. Some folks have their laundry or main bath upstairs and it's too much bother.

My problem with 2 story is the setback and easement areas. Your yard is useless. Even at 41 I'm not going upstairs to bed. I'm talking subdivision houses as well with less than 1/4 acre lots.

I'll show a drone shot of my house once done to show everyone at some point. Then I'll drone some of my neighbors houses to make my point. 2 story houses shouldn't exist. Since the 90's they've become ugly as can be with tiny lots.

I've been skeptical that any plan to repurpose federal lands could yield much housing, but this
@WSJ
analysis is making me more optimistic.

1) "About 47 million acres, or 7.3% of all federal land, falls within metropolitan areas that need more homes."

2) "Developing even 512,000 acres of the Bureau of Land Management’s lots could yield between three million and four million new homes across western states such as Nevada, Utah, California and Arizona, according to a preliminary analysis by the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C., center-right think tank."

Of course, not all of that land will be suitable for housing. Some is already in use, and others may be too far on the outskirts of MSAs. But the impact could still be significant.

The secretaries of HUD and Interior are partnering together on a project to identify federal lands suitable for housing and then fast-track development -- with an emphasis on affordable housing.

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https://x.com/jayparsons/status/1901989397178044571

DeportLibtards says

California

It may create incentives for retirees to sell their homes near the job centers and move an hour east so that they'll still be close to family and/or whatever else is keeping them in California.

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https://youtu.be/WgSgvPVOJMw?si=5cVzM8FhbZCNdOpy

Looks like rentals n multi are in in loss, anyone know what reit/stocks this might impact. Or reit / stocks prices already baked in.

Florida
https://youtu.be/6frcm2NlN3I?si=tOGsg_7LZQ6hTDTv

KgK one says

Florida

yeah Florida : https://www.zillow.com/home-values/71975/panama-city-beach-fl-32407/

Misc says

I cherish the American invention of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. No other country on earth has them. Thar's because our forefathers didn't trust bankers a lick.

Everywhere else the mortgages are variable rate after just a few short years.

This came about during the "Great Depression" of the 1930's. Prior to this economic crisis, most home and farm loans were 10-year balloon loans (interest only until maturity, upon which the principal was due), fully callable at any time. When the banks started going under in the early 1930's they called these loans, starting with the borrowers who were one payment away from paying off their loan. In the Depression environment, many of these "almost free" debtors lost it all so that the banks could realize maximum recovery on their loans. The deadbeats who had almost nothing paid off were the last to be financially destroyed.

The power of the 30-year mortgage is not that it's 30 years, but it's un-callable. No bank can make you pay back a loan faster than you are contractually obligated per the amortization schedule.

FYI some countries have 100-year mortgages - but they are not dischargeable in bankruptcy, and IIRC are incumbent upon heirs.

WookieMan says

My problem with 2 story is the setback and easement areas. Your yard is useless.

I hate 2 story as well, but I'd appreciate you being able to elaborate about these issues you mentioned. Thanks!

not sure if this include paying for the land

DeSantis and FL Legislature mention doing away with the FL State Property Tax entirely.

Several proposals are focused on providing tax relief for homeowners and property owners.

HB 359 – A new $100,000 tax exemption on all properties, including non-homesteaded properties, to provide immediate relief.
SB 1018 – A proposal to increase the homestead exemption from $25,000 to $75,000.
HB 787 / SB 996 – A bill to cap year-over-year property tax revenue growth at 2% to prevent rapid increases.
SB 852 – A bill ordering a study on eliminating property taxes in Florida, though no similar House bill has been filed, Sen. Jonathan Martin tells Florida’s Voice he is hopeful for a co-sponsor.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has voiced support for eliminating property taxes altogether, no bills to fully abolish them have been filed.

https://flvoicenews.com/hot-topic-bills-to-watch-in-the-2025-legislative-session-property-tax-relief-firearms-term-limits-more/

With the explosion of FL housing prices in the past 5 years, so has been the explosion of property tax bills. On top of explosive insurance bills.

AmericanKulak says

With the explosion of FL housing prices in the past 5 years, so has been the explosion of property tax bills. On top of explosive insurance bills.

And the only way to fix it is lower property values.

But nobody wants to talk about that.

DeportLibtards says

And the only way to fix it is lower property values.

But nobody wants to talk about that.

Nope, DeSantis put into place a committee looking to do away with property taxes in the State of Florida.

Misc says

Nope, DeSantis put into place a committee looking to do away with property taxes in the State of Florida.

No. They are going to apply it when a house is sold. Which will reduce sale prices.

The property is still going to get taxed.

Unless Florida replaces it with another revenue source, like an income tax.

AD says

It may create incentives for retirees to sell their homes near the job centers and move an hour east so that they'll still be close to family and/or whatever else is keeping them in California.

Yes, but not just retirees.

I know so many folks, retirees and non-retirees, who did this. It's been going on for decades.

The couple who sold their home to us over three decades ago were one of those non-retirees who relocated to the Central Valley. The neighboring house on the north side sold by a 40-ish bachelor who relocated to the Sierra Foothills with his fiancee in the 1990's. The neighboring guy on the south side, also not retired yet, relocated to the Central Valley about 15 years ago for a job similar to the one he had here.

The three recent sales on the culdesac in the past decade were by folks who retired to be near their kids at places not too far away.

The recent sales, for 1200 sq ft 50 year old sh*tboxes with aluminum wiring in an undesirable school district, were all over $1 million. The local schools have turned into a "don't care" for the new childless demographic in these parts. Our former blue-collar 'hood is gentrifying a bit more with each sale.

This is what gentrification looks like:

First, some background. The extreme overcrowding, horrible traffic, and insane over the top prices (including, $15k-$20k per year property taxes on recent purchases here) look like the Wide Open Prairie, at Bargain Prices, compared to where these folks come from in Asia.

The extended family of childless working age buyers pool their resources to pack like rats into these little sh*tboxes. SInce they're all on the hamster wheel working to pay for their American Dream, they all have autos. Where a household formerly had two or at most three vehicles, with two in the driveway and maybe one on the curb, the new-sale homes may have five, six or more. Besides spilling over to take up the curb space, they have to park on their front lawns which some have paved over. During the workday there's plenty of parking. But good luck finding a spot on the curb at night. And after servicing their Bargain Prices housing cost, they seem to have the resources left over to spend on payments for Status Symbol cars. Teslas, Audi, BMW, etc. Come here at night and the length of the curb on the culdesac looks like a valet parking area for Silicon Valley tech titans.

B.A.C.A.H. says

. Come here at night and the length of the curb on the culdesac looks like a valet parking area for Silicon Valley tech titans.

No thank you as I respectfully decline that implied offer to visit your white liberal and Democrat shithole state

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DeportLibtards says

Unless Florida replaces it with another revenue source, like an income tax.

Upping the sales tax would be great. Also why not a good old fashioned PER CAPITA tax? Or a flat tax on bedrooms or bathrooms?

Average Rental Price in January 2024
In January 2024, the average rental price in Florida was around $2,433, according to data from a Newsweek article (Why Florida Rents Are Falling).
Average Rental Price in March 2025
As of March 2025, the overall average fair market rent for residential rental properties in Florida is estimated at $1,752, based on data from RentalRealEstate.com (Florida (FL) Average Rent Prices 2025).

Via Grok3 Deep Search

Down almost $700?

Glock-n-Load says

Down almost $700?

Florida not only has a Condo problem, but also a huge apartment/townhouse explosion the past few years with 100k's of units added from Ocala to Orlando, St. Petersburg to Pt St Lucie

UPDATE: Checked a few of the professionally owned and operated nearby new apt complexes (less than 10 years old) - not only did they drop from ~$2.5k for a two bed to ~$1900, they're now offering 2 free months and waiving all the "Admin/Move-In" fees which were at least $250. These are properties either on the Island or on the intercoastal on the mainland.

UPDATE 2: HOLY SHIT! Near the University area (east of downtown Orlando) 2 beds were going for $2400 a few years ago and now down to $1600 plus a month free lease. These are the nice, new "luxury" ones for spoiled students or recent grads.

I remember how much this was because in 2022 I had just come back to the States.

AmericanKulak says

UPDATE 2: HOLY SHIT! Near the University area (east of downtown Orlando) 2 beds were going for $2400 a few years ago and now down to $1600 plus a month free lease. These are the nice, new "luxury" ones for college students/recent grads.

yep, Zillow is not bullshiting as it says "cool" market for rentals and average $1795 for 2 bedrooms : https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/orlando-fl/?bedrooms=2

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/72282/orlando-fl-32890/

AmericanKulak says

This is what was reported in the Wall Street Journal as far as Birdbrain Biden admin trying to prevent a significant increase in foreclosures during election year 2024.

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WookieMan says

My problem with 2 story is the setback and easement areas.

Another problem with 2 storied residential homes is the staircase riser and tread dimensions. These two dimensions are short by 2 to 4" which makes the staircase less user friendly. What do you guys think?