patrick.net

Panama City requires a $50 annual license and a 1% tax on gross income from AirBNBs.
https://excisehome.com/panamacitybeach/App_Themes/Default/HTML/Registration-Individual%20ShortTermRental.pdf

https://www.airbnb.com/help/article/2832

A 5% Tourist Development Tax is also levied by the County:
https://baytouristtax.com/

And 6% FL State Sales Tax must also be paid on top of Panama City Beach on rents less than 6 months duration:
https://floridarevenue.com/forms_library/current/gt800034.pdf

So about 12% tax so far

And any property rented out to more than 3 times a year is subject to a $250 setup fee from the City, plus an annual renewal of at least $75.
https://www.pcbfl.gov/departments/fire-department/fire-inspections/short-term-rentals

You must also surrender your rights as an Owner in order to short-term rent, allowing the City to Inspect The Property On Demand:
https://www.pcbfl.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/26090/638708062525500000

Full City Code here:
https://gladespcb.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Panama-City-Beach-FL-Code-of-Ordinances-1632-Short-Term-Rentals.pdf

Note there is a mandate that a person available to inspect the property or handle any issues be located within 1 hour of the property at all times, and any violations require a re-inspection at at least $150/incidence.

I mention all this because I like to know the worst in any scenario, makes me feel better knowing that for some reason.

Owners and Builders will try anything except cutting prices until there is no other option.



There are now 0 down builder incentives in Florida, Texas, and Tennessee as the largest number of new single families goes unsold since the Financial Crisis, and the 2nd highest inventories since the Crisis generally.



Meanwhile Hillsborough/Tampa, Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade are seeing an OUTFLOW of domestic residents.

DeportLibtards says

Only the drop in prices is likely to happen.

And since 3% mortgage rate averages aren't going to happen anytime soon, nor (sadly) wage gains, looks like it's pound down housing prices!

Owners, sell now at a big discount or forever hold your piece.

"Permanent Plateaus in Pricing since the COVID inflation" is not happening. Homeloaners are holding out for a hero, but those rates aren't gonna get cut in half anytime soon.

AmericanKulak says

Owners and Builders will try anything except cutting prices until there is no other option.

There are now 0 down builder incentives in Florida, Texas, and Tennessee as the largest number of new single families goes unsold since the Financial Crisis, and the 2nd highest inventories since the Crisis generally.

This is exactly why I don't like a "finance" guy with a builder family running the Federal Finance department or whatever the hell it's called. Some users just don't get it.

Also, this isn't nationwide. All the states you listed I've been calling out for a year. But whatever. Not directed at you. Just getting sick of the uneducated trolling. FL, TN, TX, ID, UT all have issues coming their way. Those are big markets with inflated prices that will drag down the median making it look like doomsday.

Paper money CA will lose a lot, but percentage wise it won't look that bad.

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Data from Professor Shiller's research

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AmericanKulak says

Note there is a mandate that a person available to inspect the property or handle any issues be located within 1 hour of the property at all times

It's not really enforced even in the Hood Rat or Section 8 resorts like Shores of Panama And Laketown Wharf, but my original post budgeted for a management company which also handles the cleaning.

Yes also the $200 a night is the base rate plus there is a total of 12% tax and also likely a $30 a night cleaning fee so it comes out to $254 a night to rent a 2 bedroom townhome within a couple minutes walk of the white sand beach and emerald water of the Gulf of America.

AD says

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Data from Professor Shiller's research

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those numbers match inflation in lockstep. fiat is fucking america

AD says

Yes also the $200 a night is the base rate plus there is a total of 12% tax and also likely a $30 a night cleaning fee so it comes out to $254 a night to rent a 2 bedroom townhome within a couple minutes walk of the white sand beach and emerald water of the Gulf of America.

More expensive than a hotel most of the year!

4 nights is just $500 at this beachfront townhouse going into the 4th of July
https://bit.ly/4hVqsG4

Or how about the 3rd week of August, before the kids start school, under $500!
https://bit.ly/3Y7YrDV

Or Thanksgiving Weekend, to visit Grandma? Also $500
https://bit.ly/4ciD74E

If you play on the Bookings site, there's tons of availability.

Waitaminute, that development looks familiar!

Oh, it's a neighboring building in the same townhome complex as...
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/164-Robin-Ln-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/42798385_zpid/?mmlb=g%2C25

Just $667 for 4 nights at this beachfront hotel (also just before the 4th)
http://bit.ly/41YPH5K

On the beach with two Queen beds and an ocean view, Holiday Inn reliability. Under $300/night most of the year, and no extra cleaning fee.
https://www.booking.com/hotel/us/holiday-inn-sunspree-resort-panama-city-beach.html

These townhomes are selling between the high 200s and mid 300s. If the ROI was so easy and robust, they wouldn't be so cheap.

I think there is a huge pullback from the COVID era and from AirBNBs generally. One of the big killers of short term were Karens. "Why didn't you put all the sheets in the washer?"

DeportLibtards says

WookieMan says

Yes financing shit homes for his family to make money. That's a real winner you want latch to?

YOU SAID "I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department", not me.

Stop your projecting.

Projecting what? A guy from a housing family business isn't going to loosen finance standards??? I don't care if he is in the "finance" game as far as a career. He's going to juice it to sell more homes. Most bankers aren't involved in housing with huge family companies, let alone get a federal gig. They just loan and can't change regulations.

This isn't a good thing is the point. Someone in charge of housing finance has connections to a massive builder. Hmmmm, what could go wrong?

AmericanKulak says

More expensive than a hotel most of the year!

See, I wouldn't rent a town home for vacation. Individual house, yes. More expensive than a hotel, yes. I also have no interest in spending a week in a hotel with a family of 5. We generally have to get 2 rooms as well.

VRBO and AirBnb rentals also generally have everything you'd need like your own home. So two rooms at a hotel is comparable to a rental for my situation. As a couple or solo traveler a hotel makes sense.

Problem is with hotels is I don't want to go out to eat for every meal and can only refrigerate a case of beer and some snacks at a hotel with a college sized fridge is my bigger issue. Not having a freezer or an oven in a hotel is my biggest beef.

My chef buddy brings an Instantpot when we get together for concerts in Indiana and Michigan. That works, but we're driving. Ain't bringing that when flying. Although now my gears are turning. We get 10 checked bags free (2pp). Hard case Instantpot luggage? Would make hotel stays cheaper than going out to eat and probably getting the shits the next morning because the food is different. Might talk to my plastic mold injecting buddy tonight. I know I could market it. Everything else is soft bags for carrying it to your car.

Panama City Beach Beach condos

If Panama City Beach sees a 20% decline from the all time high price then the price will be around $340,000 and only about 12% greater than the price set at (~$302,000) the peak of Bill Clinton-created housing bubble (2002 to 2006). Prices now are only down about 7% from the all time high price.

What I noticed is prices only appreciated about 1.5% annually from 2006 to 2023, when the all time high price was $425,000.

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https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7684-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/305989634_zpid/

Sept 2020: sold for $220,000 (brand new purchase)

21 April 2022: sold for $369,000

Jan 2024: Listed for sale $369,000
(this HOA allows short term / vacation rentals since its 2 miles to the beach, I wonder if they could not make $ on this)

Oct 2024: Barclay's Mortgage sued in October 2024 the owner as he was defaulted on the $277,425 mortgage for this townhome
link: https://trellis.law/doc/221328647/2-other-ep-initial-complaint-unofficial

Feb 2025: sold for $280,000
(a 24% drop from 21 April 2022 price, and about a 5.5% annual appreciation since 2020)

.

AD says

Feb 2025: sold for $280,000
(a 24% drop from 21 April 2022 price, and about a 5.5% annual appreciation since 2020)

This is why I say coastal markets don't really know what is going in the rest of the market. Mind you, you know your market better than I do. Most of the country doesn't have vacation rentals outside of cities or at least in quantity. That skews the market massively.

I've driven down 98 past that area for 20 years when we're down there. We drive east from Pensacola and stop for lunch in Destin or PCB to break the drive up to St. George Island. Then vacation rental prices and purchases prices went full retard so we don't go anymore. My mom and sister were just down in Navarre Beach about 2 weeks ago.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I would have bought the house we stayed at if I knew better. Private subdivision (Plantation) on a barrier island for $480k in 2016 roughly. That house has to be worth $1M now and could have had renters pay it down. That island has gone bat shit crazy since they don't allow high rises or condo towers. Low supply. Also had a landing strip in the subdivision.

To get into St. George Island you're gonna need $200-500k down payment or cash. It's gotten crazy in the last decade.

MolotovCocktail says

What is a "typical home" versus a "typical apartment?" Are we comparing a 1500 sqft 3-bedroom house on a suburban lot to a 900 sqft 2-bedroom flat in a highrise?

HeadSet says

What is a "typical home" versus a "typical apartment?" Are we comparing a 1500 sqft 3-bedroom house on a suburban lot to a 900 sqft 2-bedroom flat in a highrise?

You're just broke 95% of the time. Owning you have to save. Renting you don't. You're an anomaly if you rent AND save. That rarely exists.

I would say if you're not handy I probably wouldn't own. I can fix and figure out 99% of things wrong in a house. Owning is the way to go unless your employment has you moving frequently. Even then you could just rent the place out if you bought it and pay down the equity via a renter.

Patrick might be an outlier, but no one rents and then saves. Maybe 1% of them if that. They get a cool pad and are broke.

WookieMan says

HeadSet says

What is a "typical home" versus a "typical apartment?" Are we comparing a 1500 sqft 3-bedroom house on a suburban lot to a 900 sqft 2-bedroom flat in a highrise?

You're just broke 95% of the time. Owning you have to save. Renting you don't. You're an anomaly if you rent AND save. That rarely exists.

I would say if you're not handy I probably wouldn't own. I can fix and figure out 99% of things wrong in a house. Owning is the way to go unless your employment has you moving frequently. Even then you could just rent the place out if you bought it and pay down the equity via a renter.

Patrick might be an outlier, but no one rents and then saves. Maybe 1% of them if that. They get a cool pad and are broke.

Willing to bet most home owners were at one time renters who save. It’s how they got the money for the down payment and closing costs to become a “homeowner” property tax renter.

WookieMan says

Patrick might be an outlier, but no one rents and then saves. Maybe 1% of them if that. They get a cool pad and are broke.

Yeah when I first saw Patrick on 20/20 many years ago talking about the housing bubble I knew he was the rare exception not the norm as anyone in his household income bracket likely is going to own a home, and I said to myself when watching that 20/20 episode he is lucky to have a wife and kids who is okay with renting

Just use the NY Times rent versus buy calculator for different zip codes like renting versus buying a 3 bedroom townhome in Hathaway Townhomes in Panama City Beach.

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AD says

Yeah when I first saw Patrick on 20/20 many years ago talking about the housing bubble

Is this true?

Patrick makes a case as the worlds most interesting man. Are there any links available to that episode?

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-buyers-strike-multiple-cities-2057886

Florida Housing Market Sees 'Buyers on Strike' in Multiple Cities

stfu says

Are there any links available to that episode?

Patrick should just post the video for it somewhere here.

stfu says

AD says

Yeah when I first saw Patrick on 20/20 many years ago talking about the housing bubble

Is this true?

Patrick makes a case as the worlds most interesting man. Are there any links available to that episode?

I saw Patrick on TV and thought I saw it on 20/20. Calculated Risk Blog was out there and gave warning back around 2005; that site had very insightful info from a former mortgage broker Tanta Dungey.

Patrick is my favorite anti-home owner.

I saw it firsthand when living in Alexandria, VA and most of my neighbors were GS-14's from DOJ, DOD, EPA, etc and then all of a sudden townhomes in my HOA are getting bought by Frito Lay truck delivery drivers.

https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1

https://news.mortgagecalculator.org/interview-with-patrick-killelea-of-patrick-net-its-a-fantastic-time-to-be-a-renter/

AD says

all of a sudden townhomes in my HOA are getting bought by Frito Lay truck delivery drivers.

This is why why anecdotal is best. If you see something that doesn't look right, it's not right. During the housing bust I didn't see a single train car or semi with lumber on it for 6 months. I got my ass handed to me by not paying attention.

I look at every single detail daily now. Not markets. Stupid things most don't think of. Mail count, as in what marketing material you get. Trains coming through town. Look at trucks. Private jets at a local airport. The information is all there for you. Don't listen to paid media.

I don't think we're in a recession right now. At least not regionally for me. Nationally fine, but they drag down the entire country. There's 200 apartments with framed panels built every 2 days in my town.

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

AmericanKulak says

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

AmericanKulak says

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Gotta look at internal migration for the states. FL had a huge influx of Boomers. They're dying. FL built for what was coming in not realizing it was a 10-20 deal to be alive. As they die inventory is gonna go up and prices go down.

No one is 65-70 and wakes up one morning and says they gonna move to IL. So we didn't build for 2 decades. Now we are again. Demographics on population, inventory and probability of work are easy indicators as to where you market it gonna move.

DeSantis should limit the Property Tax reduction only to Homestead Exemption.

Landlords pay the full property tax. If $1000 makes or breaks a landlord from making a profit, they should sell the property.

AmericanKulak says

DeSantis should limit the Property Tax reduction only to Homestead Exemption.

Landlords pay the full property tax. If $1000 makes or breaks a landlord from making a profit, they should sell the property.

Cut the county or if FL has townships like IL does, get rid of all those assessor positions. If you buy a house and it get taxed at 1% or whatever rate and it then follows cost of living rate wise. You cut costs by the thousands of people you let go and can reduce property taxes and simplify the whole thing.

These are all government jobs with healthcare and decent wages in most cases. Outside of extremely rural areas, it's not a volunteer job yet they just sit at a desk and deal with a dozen inquiries or requests a day. It's a do nothing job.

In Florida, the boomer dieoff has begun....

I plotted that column with gnuplot:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14596061/panicked-buyers-bailing-home-contracts-amid-chaotic-markets-plummeting-bank-accounts.html

Spring is typically the best season for the housing market in the US. Not this year.

The housing market is struggling as panicked buyers back out of deals amid widespread financial uncertainty. One homebuyer in Florida, Joel Efosa, tells Daily Mail that he not optimistic about where the US housing market is headed, but he does have a plan - to wait for a market crash to buy.

'I'm waiting on the market to cycle as it did in 2008. This is a perfect storm for an eventual market crash due to this affordability crisis. I will be one of the smart ones waiting on the sideline to buy at the right time, not at the top of the market,' he says.

EBGuy says

In Florida, the boomer dieoff has begun....

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

WookieMan says

AmericanKulak says

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Gotta look at internal migration for the states. FL had a huge influx of Boomers. They're dying. FL built for what was coming in not realizing it was a 10-20 deal to be alive. As they die inventory is gonna go up and prices go down.

No one is 65-70 and wakes up one morning and says they gonna move to IL. So we didn't build for 2 decades. Now we are again. Demographics on population, inventory and probability of work are easy indicators as to where you market it gonna move.

Will have to see the reason for any recovery of Illinois population such as new manufacturing jobs for young married couple, etc

Maybe there are incentives to move to rural Illinois for economic refugees escaping expensive Florida.



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Patrick says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14596061/panicked-buyers-bailing-home-contracts-amid-chaotic-markets-plummeting-bank-accounts.html

Spring is typically the best season for the housing market in the US. Not this year.

The housing market is struggling as panicked buyers back out of deals amid widespread financial uncertainty. One homebuyer in Florida, Joel Efosa, tells Daily Mail that he not optimistic about where the US housing market is headed, but he does have a plan - to wait for a market crash to buy.

'I'm waiting on the market to cycle as it did in 2008. This is a perfect storm for an eventual market crash due to this affordability crisis. I will be one of the smart ones waiting on the sideline to buy at the right time, not at the top of the market,' he says.

Housing peaked around 2006 and then dropped from 2006 to 2011.

Housing peaked around 2022 in the Florida panhandle. So maybe the bottom feeders are looking for a crash 4 years later (in 2026).

A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1 car garage townhome in my HOA just sold for around $272,000. It would have easily sold for $330,000 in 2022

and another 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my HOA just sold for $285,000

So its hard to tell if we are going to have a crash like the bottom feeders are hoping for, or is it just going to level off to where it is now (while household income increases 2% annually) which is about 15 to 20% below 2022 peak prices, or all time high prices

.

ForcedTQ says

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.

Misc says

AmericanKulak says
Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

From what I've read online such as Florida Politics page, Florida Today, etc the state is diversifying its economy.

Where I live in the Florida panhandle there is a shipyard that builds Coast Guard ships, off shore vessels, tug boats, ferry boats, and is vying to build Navy ships.

And we have other manufacturing like Berg Pipe, Trane Air Conditioning, an industrial washing machine manufacturer, an outboard motor manufacturing facility, a small pleasure fishing boat manufacturer, etc

They also have a few software companies here as well.

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Patrick says

ForcedTQ says

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.

The growth in Florida panhandle like Bay County is due to the shipyard growing, Tyndall Air Force Base growing its drone program, and manufacturing base growing as well as they brought in tech companies like accounting software company and they have an incubator called Tech Farms which has created a few startups that local private capital investors (mostly restaurant / bar owners, lawyers and doctors) are funding.

I know this also by following the amount of school bonds issued by county in Florida for new construction as well as expansion of existing schools.

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