patrick.net

AD says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/29/the-lock-in-effect-and-mortgage-rates-update-on-unwinding-a-phenomenon-that-wrecked-the-housing-market/

The only way out of this trap is to lower the price of homes, which lowers the underlying price assessment for insurance and property taxes.

Looks like about 70% of mortgages are no more than at an interest rate of 5%.

Prices now down around 15% from all time high price set in early 2022 in Panama City Beach.
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Interesting article about the impact of low interest rates on the housing market dynamics.

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/housings-deep-freeze-existing-home-sales-at-25-year-lows/

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

Nope. Because not even in the Florida is your average buyer 'sophisticated'.

How the fuck do you know ? You live in the Democrat shithole California.

Logic. Which you seem to refuse to engage in just to continue living in your Marie Antionette bubble.

You refusal to acknowledge that your typical house hunter doesn't even know wtf a point even is and that your typical seller has the money to offer to do that is your undoing.

You see l, there's this whole world outside of your Florida Circle Jerk Zone.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Vegas is based on employment. They have low employment because of online gaming, sports betting and slot machines in every gas station across the country. Vegas tourism is dead currently. Unless they cut room rates back to 90's and early 2000's rates no one is going there or gambling except poor white people thinking going to Vegas would be fun. It's a dead city. So it's no surprise values are down. Actually surprised it's not more on the downswing.

For the last 3.5 years people have been braying about how now is a terrible time to buy a house. They use all kinds of historical measures to persuade people not to buy. The market sentiment in the residential real estate market is low. Prices nationwide have dropped a whole 1% from the peak, which occurred this summer. Residential real estate does not exist in a vacuum. Sentiment can change and change rapidly.

There are only about 2 million houses up for sale. With an average price of $430k, it puts the value up for sale at about $86 billion. The stock market is up about 15% this year or about $8 trillion. So, if about 1% of the stock market's gain were to look for diversification into another asset like residential real estate...well all that inventory is simply gone in the blink of an eye.

Yes, the stock market is waaaaaaay over valued and money managers are looking anywhere to put their coin.

Again sentiment can change on a dime.

Realtors (I’m in the DMV) are starting to tell me the market is turning. Lots of price drops.

https://reventureapp.blog/us-housing-bubble-2025-bigger-than-2006/

WookieMan says

Actually surprised it's not more on the downswing.

Agreed. And deportation of illegals is going to hit cities like Vegas hard.

Isn't this fraud?

MolotovCocktail says

Isn't this fraud?

yes, 18 U.S.C. § 1343

no way it is not a fake post

PeopleUnited says

WookieMan says

Actually surprised it's not more on the downswing.

Agreed. And deportation of illegals is going to hit cities like Vegas hard.

Do you mean a lot of apartment and house vacancies will result from deportations?

So what percentage of rental housing was with undocumented or illegal immigrants in Las Vegas prior to Trump's second inauguration?

What percentage of illegal immigrants in Las Vegas will get arrested and what percentage of those arrested will get deported during the Trump administration?

Remember Trump admin is arresting even immigrants who having pending green card applications as there may be an arrest quota.

What happens is there is a due process involved after the arrest where they may not be immediately deported especially if they already have pending status like a green card application still under review.

AD says

yes, 18 U.S.C. § 1343

no way it is not a fake post

I reported it to X. They don't care.

Not a fake. Fucker posted it.

https://x.com/chasedownleads/status/1980310381429141514

Here he is:



Doesn't identify as a parody account but it seems that he is.

Say, could underpricing by realturds be prosecuted under 18 U.S.C. § 1343?

They advertise a fraudulent price which they know the buyer will never accept. That's standard practice in CA.

AD says

What happens is there is a due process involved after the arrest where they may not be immediately deported especially if they already have pending status like a green card application still under review.

Deportations are legally an administrative function, not a criminal enforcement one. Thus they do not 'arrest'. They 'detain'. It's why these idiot judge rulings get completely overturned so often.

I suppose green card petitioners have more due process rights, but not much more. I remember reading through my wife's green card docs and it was clearly stated she could be deported anyway. Green cards are still visas, despite what some activists/politicians...even lawyers..bullshit otherwise while on TV.

Will see how housing fares in these 22 states especially if housing prices were very inflated compared to the other 28 states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/economist-mark-zandi-says-these-22-states-have-slipped-into-recession-based-on-2-clear-indicators-could-the-ripple-effects-hit-your-wallet-next/ar-AA1OXMkJ

The states that Zandi believes are in recession are as follows: Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, Washington, D.C., West Virginia, and Wyoming.

So, only the hipster states?

AD says

Will see how housing fares in these 22 states especially if housing prices were very inflated compared to the other 28 states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/economist-mark-zandi-says-these-22-states-have-slipped-into-recession-based-on-2-clear-indicators-could-the-ripple-effects-hit-your-wallet-next/ar-AA1OXMkJ

The states that Zandi believes are in recession are as follows: Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, Washington, D.C., West Virginia, and Wyoming.

How in the heck can Virginia, DC and Maryland be in this list? Because of the government shutdown?

GNL says

So, only the hipster states?

Explain any of them? Have you been to Wyoming or MT? IL is just fine. Kansas, SD and Iowa are odd balls I don't believe that are down. Need to see stats and they won't be provided.

But yes the list proves coastal and hipster areas. Surprised Idaho isn't on there. 3 out of 50 states. Math.

GNL says

How in the heck can Virginia, DC and Maryland be in this list? Because of the government shutdown?

Yes, as I suspect likely a lot of federal government contractors being laid off also. Consider alone the cuts to USAID.

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GNL says

How in the heck can Virginia, DC and Maryland be in this list?

I have been seeing price drops on acreages over the last few months in the Northern VA area, similar to this:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37016-Longmoor-Farm-Ln-Purcellville-VA-20132/82560668_zpid/

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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-average-mortgage-rates-across-the-u-s-in-2025/

Florida's average mortgage rate is around 6.2%. I would think with all the buying over the last 10 years in Florida and with FHA and VA mortgages being very popular, that the average mortgage rate would be well below 6.2%.

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Bad news for the Housing Doomers. The Case/Shiller went up a tiny amount month over month in the latest readings I normally wouldn't read too much into a single data point, but mortgage rates have continued to decrease since then. If rates continue down and housing prices go up even a little bit over the next 3-4 months we may see a FOMO homebuying blitz during next year's Spring season.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

Misc says

Bad news for the Housing Doomers. The Case/Shiller went up a tiny amount month over month in the latest readings I normally wouldn't read too much into a single data point, but mortgage rates have continued to decrease since then. If rates continue down and housing prices go up even a little bit over the next 3-4 months we may see a FOMO homebuying blitz during next year's Spring season.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

Hahaha

Misc says

Bad news for the Housing Doomers. The Case/Shiller went up a tiny amount month over month in the latest readings I normally wouldn't read too much into a single data point, but mortgage rates have continued to decrease since then. If rates continue down and housing prices go up even a little bit over the next 3-4 months we may see a FOMO homebuying blitz during next year's Spring season.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

Depends on housing market consumer sentiment which is based on economic factors like stock market and employment conditions.

Of course it depends on the local market such as here in Panama City Florida there has been noticeable job growth not just in the tourism industry such as Eastern Shipyard is expanding and there is an aerospace campus to be built which will add at least 1500 new long-term jobs.

Rents have essentially been frozen in Panama City for last 3 years, but housing costs are going down like property insurance, HOA regular assessments, etc.

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That’s the first I’ve heard about insurance going down. It’s been reported for some time now that insurance has been going up.

Glock-n-Load says

That’s the first I’ve heard about insurance going down. It’s been reported for some time now that insurance has been going up.

Florida property insurance has gone down after Ron DeSantis insurance reforms.

Yes, Florida has enacted reforms that effectively cap certain lawsuits against property insurance carriers—especially by limiting attorney fees, shortening filing windows, and restricting bad faith claims.
Here’s a breakdown of the key legal changes affecting property insurance litigation in Florida:

⚖️ Legal Caps and Restrictions on Lawsuits
1. Attorney Fee Limits
• SB 2-A (2022 Special Session) eliminated the longstanding “one-way attorney fee” provision.
• Previously, policyholders who won against insurers could recover legal fees.
• Now, each party pays their own legal costs, making lawsuits less financially viable for many homeowners.
2. Shortened Filing Deadlines
• Claims must now be filed within 1 year of the date of loss (down from 2 years).
• Supplemental claims must be filed within 18 months.
3. Bad Faith Lawsuits Curtailed
• Policyholders cannot file bad faith lawsuits unless they first win a breach of contract case.
• This change significantly reduces the number of high-dollar punitive claims against insurers.
4. Assignment of Benefits (AOB) Restrictions
• AOB agreements—where contractors sue insurers directly—are now heavily restricted.
• This reform has cut down on third-party litigation, which was a major driver of insurance costs.

Impact on Homeowners and Insurers
• These reforms aim to stabilize Florida’s insurance market, which has been plagued by high litigation rates and insurer insolvencies.
• Critics argue they limit consumer protections, while supporters say they reduce fraud and frivolous lawsuits.
If you're analyzing how these changes affect Panama City Beach homeowners or comparing litigation trends pre- and post-reform, I can help chart that out. Want to see how lawsuit volume or average payouts have shifted since SB 2-A? Just say the word.

Desperately trying to prop up wildly inflated house pices with more debt...just like Japan tried when their housing market crashed and never recovered.

https://ground.news/article/thiel-says-housing-crisis-pushes-millennials-toward-socialism_7f8c3b

Peter Thiel's 2020 private email resurfaced and went viral after Zohran Mamdani's mayoral victory, with Chamath Palihapitiya posting a screenshot on X on November 5, 2025, and Business Insider verifying it.

Peter Thiel wrote in January 2020 that too much student debt and unaffordable housing leave Millennials with negative capital, noting 70% identify as pro-socialist in a message to Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO, and Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist.

Thiel told the Free Press Friday that strict zoning and construction limits have benefited boomers while making homebuying extremely hard for millennials, warning this could push young people toward extremist ideologies.

Polling expert Frank Luntz called the off-year results a 'wake-up call' as an August Gallup poll found 49% adults 18 to 34 held a positive view of socialism.

Thiel, often described as a libertarian who supported President Donald Trump, urged Mark Zuckerberg and tech leadership to address young Americans' growing disconnection, saying he would be the last to advocate socialism.

It's not just zoning. It's continuous warfare against the working class by outsourcing to China and insourcing illegals to drive down wages further. And laws that unfairly benefit owners, like Prop 13 and the mortgage interest deduction, both of which simply make houses more expensive.

I ran a side-by-side comparison of a 30-year vs. 50-year mortgage on a $500,000 loan at 6% interest.

Here are the takeaways:

In a 30-year mortgage, 17% of your payments in the beginning of the loan go toward principal. In a 50-year mortgage, only 5% goes to principal.

In a 30-year, 25% of your payment goes to principal by year 7.

In a 50-year, that doesn't happen until year 26.

In a 30-year, 50% of your payments goes to principal by year 18.

In a 50-year, that takes 38 years.

Here's the bottom line:

30 years is already an insanely long period of time to finance a purchase.

If you're going to get a 50-year mortgage, you might as well just rent and let someone else deal with major repairs and capex.

https://x.com/bavedikian/status/1987554135357493362?s=20

The citizens need a much less daunting way to become self employed also.

MolotovCocktail says

If you're going to get a 50-year mortgage, you might as well just rent and let someone else deal with major repairs and capex.

I don't agree with a 50 year mortgage. Since the crash, and I don't know the percentage, but a lot of people have gotten into 15 year mortgages when rates were low. The smart people are not looking for a 50 year if it was available.

Thing with 50 year is that lenders, brokers, builders, attorneys all would want it. More business. Also those groups in combination are the biggest lobbyist in DC. So if someone floats it, I'd bet they all jump on board.

I think the % of homeowners is in/near the sweat spot. Some people just shouldn't own homes and/or can't do the basic maintenance. They drop a number 2 and clog the toilet they call the plumber. If you make it easier it just results in more defaults.

The only argument would be the wealthy. Make $300k/yr plus and get a low monthly nut on a $900k house. If times get tough, your payment is low. If it get good times, you pay more toward principle. No different than rent and invest. Question is does anyone really do that most of the time? Likely no in either scenario.

10, 15, 20 and shortly 30! But now 50!!
So 100 year (multi-generational) mortgages is not too far off at this rate 🤡
Congratulations to fiat currency and Ponzi scheme laws like CA prop 13 and derivatives for rich comrades 😂
The alternative is going back to caves! 😜

Banks will likely charge an extra 1% for a 50 year mortgage, so if the 30 yr rate is now 6% than the 50 year rate will be 7%.

A nice tour of Pacifica ocean erosion. Those expensive concrete sea walls are even being covered by landslides.

Many areas of Santa Cruz don't look much different although the cliffs aren't as high. If this winter is a Pacific pile driver, we'll see what happens. Winter storms plus a temblor over 5 would be a double whammy that could wreck a lot of expensive ocean front real estate. Even a modest tsunami would also put the nails in a few real estate coffins.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGg73CvDkmA&t=432s


Remains of concrete sea wall up above with crumbled sea wall below exposing mud cliffs again.

https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/make-america-affordable-again

America has plenty of housing. The reason it has become unaffordable is due to unsustainable immigration and crime levels. ~300 million Americans must compete with ~50 million legal and illegal immigrants for homes. Vast swaths of neighborhoods within and suburbs surrounding every city are no-go zones. They are overrun by criminals, drug addicts, and foreigners concentrated in ethnic enclaves that don’t speak English. Skid Row (LA) and Tenderloin (SF) are the two most prominent examples of prime locations ruined by leftist policies. Areas that were livable for middle class families a generation ago are now unrecognizable and undesirable.




Everyone knows these brutal realities, but can’t say them out loud. Real estate brokers steer clients to the few remaining patches that resemble a first world country. Those places require over $1 million for a starter home or $5,000/month of rent for a 2-bedroom apartment. The cost of living pressure keeps rising as corporations continue to cut well-paying American jobs, while replacing them with cheaper H1-B indentured servants or outsourcing. On the revenue side, protect the American workers’ wages above all else. “Affordable housing” is leftist doublespeak for seizing land as patronage slums for their voters and enrich their developer cronies. Let the local markets decide where to build new homes. If we keep criminals in jail and deport illegals, millions of existing residential real estate units can boost viable inventory. For good measure, ban foreign and institutional investors from buying up single family homes. Supply rises, demand drops, and prices fall.

MolotovCocktail says

I ran a side-by-side comparison of a 30-year vs. 50-year mortgage on a $500,000 loan at 6% interest.

Add to that the 50 year loan will be at a higher interest, just likes today's 30 year loan is at a higher interest than a 15 year loan.

You could always consider it a 50 year hedge against hyper-inflation.

Misc says

You could always consider it a 50 year hedge against hyper-inflation.

A 30 year mortgage is already sufficient for that.