17
5

housing prices peak 2


 invite response                
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   599,731 views  5,613 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

« First        Comments 774 - 813 of 5,613       Last »     Search these comments

774   HeadSet   2022 Sep 13, 7:12am  



Why would someone buy a house and then sell less than a month later for just a $9,900 gain? That would not even come close to covering the sales costs.
775   WookieMan   2022 Sep 13, 8:08am  

HeadSet says



Why would someone buy a house and then sell less than a month later for just a $9,900 gain? That would not even come close to covering the sales costs.

Money laundering? We don't know the down payment amount. I know certain amounts of cash need to be reported, but there's ways around that. Could be a corporate relocate as well. I'd likely guess that's the case. We need you here and fucked up and should have sent you elsewhere. Happened to my MIL's neighbor. Family moved in and then was shipped somewhere else 2 months later. Felt bad for the kids.
776   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Sep 13, 3:52pm  

HeadSet says



Why would someone buy a house and then sell less than a month later for just a $9,900 gain? That would not even come close to covering the sales costs.


found out neighbor is gay
777   Blue   2022 Sep 14, 10:31am  

ZipperTits says

Mortgage demand from homebuyers falls 29% since last year, as interest rates surge past 6%

In other words about 2/3 looks still ok. Its time to look and lock RE if not stocks somewhere affordable across US where friends or family lives around. Once the interest rates go down, inflation affect can kick-in fast and rise the properties. RE could still go down but can not crash unless run into big recession. Chasing and picking at bottom is hard for many unless you know someone in gov, banks who knows good ones at great price.
778   GNL   2022 Sep 14, 10:42am  

Tell em @ZipperTits.
780   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 14, 10:53am  

This one is going to be on the market for a long time:

781   Tenpoundbass   2022 Sep 14, 10:57am  

How can that monstrosity have 4 beds and 4 baths and only be 1798 sqft?

I wonder if the garage is part of that square footage, it's gotta be 400 ft alone.
782   Blue   2022 Sep 14, 11:36am  

Tenpoundbass says


How can that monstrosity have 4 beds and 4 baths and only be 1798 sqft?

Because the picture contains their neighbor house as well. This is why I hate RE deception pictures. They are looking for tenant expecting $4K rent.
786   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Sep 14, 2:09pm  

zzyzzx says





we sold ours pretty fast. but yeah if rates were lower easy another 100k in profit. and i know in 10 years that place would be worth more. i just fucking hated california government, all their liberal fag shit to a point i didn’t want anything to do with those liberal fags. not a penny more from me in property taxes
787   GNL   2022 Sep 14, 3:49pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

zzyzzx says






we sold ours pretty fast. but yeah if rates were lower easy another 100k in profit. and i know in 10 years that place would be worth more. i just fucking hated california government, all their liberal fag shit to a point i didn’t want anything to do with those liberal fags. not a penny more from me in property taxes

Where did you move?
788   Eman   2022 Sep 14, 7:40pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


zzyzzx says





we sold ours pretty fast. but yeah if rates were lower easy another 100k in profit. and i know in 10 years that place would be worth more. i just fucking hated california government, all their liberal fag shit to a point i didn’t want anything to do with those liberal fags. not a penny more from me in property taxes



No need to hate CA and their liberal fag shit. You can make a ton of money by providing them what they need and living a good life in any other city.

We sold this flip in Berkeley for $1.75M in June. Bought last October for $1.075M. Permits got delayed. 🙄 Had we hit the market in March, it would have been bigger Ka-Ching!

Simply do what we can control. No need to be jealous of anyone. Happiness comes from within.

https://redf.in/H28A6Z
789   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 15, 8:10am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-mortgage-rates-breach-6-percent-140013849.html

Housing: Mortgage rates breach 6% for first time since 2008

Still too low.
790   NDrLoR   2022 Sep 15, 8:33am  

Tenpoundbass says

How can that monstrosity have 4 beds and 4 baths and only be 1798 sqft?
They're probably including those stupid looking dormers everywhere. Ugliest garage treatment I've ever seen! Doesn't even have a front, the first thing you see is the maw of the garage leering at you.
791   RWSGFY   2022 Sep 15, 9:27am  

Eman says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says



zzyzzx says






we sold ours pretty fast. but yeah if rates were lower easy another 100k in profit. and i know in 10 years that place would be worth more. i just fucking hated california government, all their liberal fag shit to a point i didn’t want anything to do with those liberal fags. not a penny more from me in property taxes




No need to hate CA and their liberal fag shit. You can make a ton of money by providing them what they need and living a good life in any other city.

We sold this flip in Berkeley for $1.75M in June. Bought last October for $1.075M. Permits got delayed. 🙄 Had we hit the market in March, it would have been bigger...


Wait, no BRRR? Why not?
793   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Sep 15, 9:46am  

zzyzzx says


This one is going to be on the market for a long time:

They'd increase the value by updating the dormers with Bushmaster gun turrets.
794   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 15, 9:46am  

Investor wants to know buying strategy during when rates hit 8% during affordability crisis after boning himself on first negative cash flow investment

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/xe3ms3/how_should_younger_investors_navigate_upcoming/
795   GNL   2022 Sep 15, 9:48am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

zzyzzx says



This one is going to be on the market for a long time:

They'd increase the value by updating the dormers with Bushmaster gun turrets.

Now you're talkin.
796   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 15, 9:50am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xeborb/flood_of_55_age_community_homes_for_sale/

Flood of 55+ age community homes for sale

We live in a Seattle suburb. We moved last year and just renting now until things settle down. I like to keep an eye out on the listings so I can gauge how the market is doing around us. I usually see one or two 55+ age community homes come up for sale here and there. It seems like lately there have been quite a few come up for sale. We can’t buy in there because we aren’t that age, but wondering why there seems to be a significant increase. Most of them are condo/townhomes, with a few homes. Any thoughts on why?
797   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 15, 9:52am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-affordability-200916571.html

Housing affordability hits worst level in 37 years
799   WookieMan   2022 Sep 16, 10:13am  

ZipperTits says

Well, some good news!




“The CPI, the data they are looking at is old data. All they have to do is call Doug McMillon at Walmart, call any of the real estate fellas and ask what is happening to our apartment rents,” he said, pointing out that the rate of rent growth is now slowing.

The continuation of rate hikes will also cause a “major crash” in the housing market, Sternlicht predicted. The once-hot real estate market is swiftly slowing down, with mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan over 6% — up from 3.29% at the start of the year, according to Mortgage News Daily.

While the Fed’s target is 2%, inflation should run at 3% to 4%, Sternlicht said.

“Inflation that is driven by wage growth is fabulous. We should want wages to go up,” he said.

“You can pay higher rents, you can buy your equipment, you can go to the restaurant if...

The bank owns 120k apartments. Sure he might own a couple buildings outright, but there's no way a real estate investor isn't leveraged to the max. Which is why the dude is concerned. A bank can and will call the note if shit starts hitting the fan and he'll end up with 100 apartments if his rents don't keep up with your typical 5 year commercial loan that is reviewed annually. That's not a joke either. I worked with a guy in Chicago that had 2k units. Lost them ALL during the crash.
800   HeadSet   2022 Sep 16, 12:20pm  

WookieMan says

I worked with a guy in Chicago that had 2k units. Lost them ALL during the crash.

Sounds like someone (or several people) got a great buying opportunity from an overleveraged landlord.
801   Shaman   2022 Sep 16, 12:47pm  

Anyone still wanting to buy a house near Nashville? My acquaintance is selling his in Greenbrier. 5 bed, 5k sqf. New construction with a lot of extras.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/139-Empson-Dr-Greenbrier-TN-37073/80375447_zpid/
802   HeadSet   2022 Sep 16, 1:05pm  

Shaman says

Anyone still wanting to buy a house near Nashville? My acquaintance is selling his in Greenbrier. 5 bed, 5k sqf. New construction with a lot of extras.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/139-Empson-Dr-Greenbrier-TN-37073/80375447_zpid/

Possible mis link - that is not new construction. Asking price is almost triple of what it sold for in 2015.
803   Eman   2022 Sep 16, 6:19pm  

RWSGFY says

Eman says


FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says




zzyzzx says







we sold ours pretty fast. but yeah if rates were lower easy another 100k in profit. and i know in 10 years that place would be worth more. i just fucking hated california government, all their liberal fag shit to a point i didn’t want anything to do with those liberal fags. not a penny more from me in property taxes





No need to hate CA and their liberal fag shit. You can make a ton of money by providing them what they need and living a good life in any other city.

We sold this flip in Berkeley for $1.75M in June. Bought last ...


If I wanted to own rentals in Berkeley and SF, I would have owned them many moons ago. There’s no reason to subject myself to their crazy rent control rules and regulations when there are better options in the Bay.
804   Eman   2022 Sep 16, 6:31pm  

WookieMan says

ZipperTits says


Well, some good news!





“The CPI, the data they are looking at is old data. All they have to do is call Doug McMillon at Walmart, call any of the real estate fellas and ask what is happening to our apartment rents,” he said, pointing out that the rate of rent growth is now slowing.

The continuation of rate hikes will also cause a “major crash” in the housing market, Sternlicht predicted. The once-hot real estate market is swiftly slowing down, with mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan over 6% — up from 3.29% at the start of the year, according to Mortgage News Daily.

While the Fed’s target is 2%, inflation should run at 3% to 4%, Sternlicht said.

“Inflation that is driven by wage growth is fabulous. We should want wages to go up,” he sai...


Can you share the loan underwriting details during the last housing crash and now if you know?

Based on what our lender told us, he said the loan underwriting last time was madness. 1.0 DSCR of pro-forma rents, which the borrower couldn’t likely achieve, which explained the end result.

Loan underwriting now is…..
805   Eman   2022 Sep 16, 6:35pm  

HeadSet says

WookieMan says


I worked with a guy in Chicago that had 2k units. Lost them ALL during the crash.

Sounds like someone (or several people) got a great buying opportunity from an overleveraged landlord.


If you knew of the loan underwriting then, you would understand why it happened. It would take more than 2008 housing crash to see the same level of default. Loan underwriting is no longer the same. We set reserves on all our buildings to withstand a 25% vacancy. If push comes to shove, handle all property management and save another 5-6 percent.
806   GNL   2022 Sep 16, 6:37pm  

Eman says


If push comes to shove, handle all property management and save another 5-6 percent.

That sounds like suicide to me. Of course, I don't know how many properties you have.
807   pudil   2022 Sep 16, 7:07pm  

Shaman says

Anyone still wanting to buy a house near Nashville? My acquaintance is selling his in Greenbrier. 5 bed, 5k sqf. New construction with a lot of extras.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/139-Empson-Dr-Greenbrier-TN-37073/80375447_zpid/


So he bought the house 7 years ago for $375, did nothing to it, and now he’s asking $1 million. And will probably get it.

Watch out everyone! Housing crash incoming! This guy is certainly going to look foolish after the 40% correction and he only gets 600K for his house.

Again, not saying that house prices won’t stabilize or go down a little. But anyone who is expecting 2008 again is going to be disappointed.
808   Blue   2022 Sep 16, 9:21pm  

FedEx stock went down more than 20%. It confirmed that economy is cooling. One can expect some bargains both in stocks and RE.
810   Eman   2022 Sep 17, 9:09am  

GNL says

Eman says



If push comes to shove, handle all property management and save another 5-6 percent.

That sounds like suicide to me. Of course, I don't know how many properties you have.

100 units. If that’s what it takes to survive through a 30% rent drop or vacancy, one has to do what one has to do. However, history is on my side so I’m not sweating it.

During the dotcom crash, rent dropped as much as 28%. Rent hardly budged during the Great Recession. Rent dropped a little, 5-10%, during the pandemic. It has since recovered and at record high now.

We have reserves set aside to carry us for 5 years of 25% vacancy. I think we’ll be ok. If the Bay Area becomes the next Detroit, I think we’ll have much bigger issues to worry about.
811   RWSGFY   2022 Sep 17, 9:43am  

Eman says

GNL says


Eman says




If push comes to shove, handle all property management and save another 5-6 percent.

That sounds like suicide to me. Of course, I don't know how many properties you have.


100 units. If that’s what it takes to survive through a 30% rent drop or vacancy, one has to do what one has to do. However, history is on my side so I’m not sweating it.

During the dotcom crash, rent dropped as much as 28%. Rent hardly budged during the Great Recession. Rent dropped a little, 5-10%, during the pandemic. It has since recovered and at record high now.

We have reserves set aside to carry us for 5 years of 25% vacancy. I think we’ll be ok. If the Bay Area becomes the next Detroit, I think we’ll have much bigger issues to worry about.


It's 40% actually. My rent dropped 40% during dot.bomb.
812   Eman   2022 Sep 17, 10:12am  

RWSGFY says

Eman says


GNL says



Eman says





If push comes to shove, handle all property management and save another 5-6 percent.

That sounds like suicide to me. Of course, I don't know how many properties you have.



100 units. If that’s what it takes to survive through a 30% rent drop or vacancy, one has to do what one has to do. However, history is on my side so I’m not sweating it.

During the dotcom crash, rent dropped as much as 28%. Rent hardly budged during the Great Recession. Rent dropped a little, 5-10%, during the pandemic. It has since recovered and at record high now.

We have reserves set aside to carry us for 5 years of 25% vacancy. I think we’ll be ok. If the Bay Area be...


Was this in the Bay Area, specifically San Jose or elsewhere? If San Jose, do you mind sharing the address of the building? I always love to learn from history.

I know the Bay Area got crazy rent hikes during the dotcom and got whacked hard with the drop. Not sure about other areas.
813   GNL   2022 Sep 17, 10:28am  

Eman says - However, history is on my side so I’m not sweating it.

@Eman - "No one could have seen it coming". Oh really? Michael Burry did.

Don't get me wrong, I do not wish you any harm but, in the big scheme of things, ask yourself...do you really add anything to the economy? There has been much ink spent on Patrick.net about the rent seekers. It is what it is.

How do you feel about the big Wall Street attempt to takeover housing? Is it real? Is it good or bad for society? America used to put the health of society just a little higher on the ladder of importance.

« First        Comments 774 - 813 of 5,613       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste