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6559
EBGuy
2025 Jun 24, 2:12pm
AD says
Approximately 5% of the SF Bay Area economy is injections of venture capital. As the saying goes, that'll leave a mark. That said, I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy. The next downturn is going to leave a mark.
Mayor Lurie wants to close S.F. budget deficit by cutting roughly 1,400 city jobs
San Jose shrinks budget shortfall, prioritizes temporary shelters
The City Council previewed the proposed 2025-26 budget during a budget study session Wednesday, which drops the projected budget shortfall of $60 million to $35.6 million.
How Many California Cities are Running Huge Budget Deficits?
The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
San Diego is over $300 million in debt.
The City of Sacramento has a $66 million budget deficit.
San Francisco has a $876 million budget deficit.
San Jose projected a $60 million budget shortfall, then ratcheted it down to $35.6 million, but is projecting a $52.9 million deficit for 2026.
The City of Fresno is facing a budget deficit of over $20 million in the 2026 budget. In 2025, the city expects to have an end-of-year surplus of nearly $15 million, but according to City Manager Georgeanne White, without federal American Rescue Plan Act dollars, 2025 could end up in the red, yourcentralvalley.com reports.
Oakland is facing a $268 million deficit over the next two fiscal years.
Berkeley has a $28M budget deficit.
What props up those regions like in California ?
Approximately 5% of the SF Bay Area economy is injections of venture capital. As the saying goes, that'll leave a mark. That said, I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy. The next downturn is going to leave a mark.
Mayor Lurie wants to close S.F. budget deficit by cutting roughly 1,400 city jobs
San Jose shrinks budget shortfall, prioritizes temporary shelters
The City Council previewed the proposed 2025-26 budget during a budget study session Wednesday, which drops the projected budget shortfall of $60 million to $35.6 million.
How Many California Cities are Running Huge Budget Deficits?
The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
San Diego is over $300 million in debt.
The City of Sacramento has a $66 million budget deficit.
San Francisco has a $876 million budget deficit.
San Jose projected a $60 million budget shortfall, then ratcheted it down to $35.6 million, but is projecting a $52.9 million deficit for 2026.
The City of Fresno is facing a budget deficit of over $20 million in the 2026 budget. In 2025, the city expects to have an end-of-year surplus of nearly $15 million, but according to City Manager Georgeanne White, without federal American Rescue Plan Act dollars, 2025 could end up in the red, yourcentralvalley.com reports.
Oakland is facing a $268 million deficit over the next two fiscal years.
Berkeley has a $28M budget deficit.
6560
SunnyvaleCA
2025 Jun 24, 3:06pm
EBGuy says
We need DODGE out here. Sadly, all that was uncovered was swept under the rug and soon to be ignored. But if only that level of waste and fraud were exposed at all levels of government (and I'm sure there are epic levels of waste and fraud all around), we'd at least have a chance of averting financial collapse.
I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy.
We need DODGE out here. Sadly, all that was uncovered was swept under the rug and soon to be ignored. But if only that level of waste and fraud were exposed at all levels of government (and I'm sure there are epic levels of waste and fraud all around), we'd at least have a chance of averting financial collapse.
6561
Misc
2025 Jun 25, 1:47am
Looks like the Case/Shiller had another up month (new record high) recovering from a slight downturn from the previous 2 months.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=199&eid=243576#snid=243577
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=199&eid=243576#snid=243577
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
6562
WookieMan
2025 Jun 25, 3:25am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 25, 3:25am
Misc says
Yup. Not gonna search for the comment but I said people get under contract in the spring and close when the kids are out of school. This is 100% true when it's to a new district.
Every spring this happens where people freak out that we're in a housing bust. Then May through September are when the real numbers hit as the contracts close. Reality is who goes shopping for homes during the holidays? It's only corporate relocation buyers or there's a good deal. Basically no demand and closings during Jan-April. And before anyone is a smart ass, there are closings, just not many and from desperate sellers. So numbers will be lower for sales and value.
I lived this life. I know how it works. It's seasonal. No different than road construction. Southern states are slightly different, but it's still about closing and moving when kids are out of school. The midwest you're not moving in January-March or shouldn't. Pure misery.
Once Thanksgiving hit we really wouldn't even take a listing. No buyers, we have to sell for less and it basically made our brokerage look bad with high market time and/or no sale. If they could wait, we'd ask them to hold out until at least late Jan. to get on the market.
Looks like the Case/Shiller had another up month (new record high) recovering from a slight downturn from the previous 2 months.
Yup. Not gonna search for the comment but I said people get under contract in the spring and close when the kids are out of school. This is 100% true when it's to a new district.
Every spring this happens where people freak out that we're in a housing bust. Then May through September are when the real numbers hit as the contracts close. Reality is who goes shopping for homes during the holidays? It's only corporate relocation buyers or there's a good deal. Basically no demand and closings during Jan-April. And before anyone is a smart ass, there are closings, just not many and from desperate sellers. So numbers will be lower for sales and value.
I lived this life. I know how it works. It's seasonal. No different than road construction. Southern states are slightly different, but it's still about closing and moving when kids are out of school. The midwest you're not moving in January-March or shouldn't. Pure misery.
Once Thanksgiving hit we really wouldn't even take a listing. No buyers, we have to sell for less and it basically made our brokerage look bad with high market time and/or no sale. If they could wait, we'd ask them to hold out until at least late Jan. to get on the market.
6563
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Jun 25, 4:52am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Jun 25, 4:52am
EBGuy says
Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.
The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.
6564
WookieMan
2025 Jun 25, 5:21am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 25, 5:21am
Al_Sharpton_for_President says
Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.
Chicago has most the population, but is a thorn in the rest of the state. Everything outside of Chicago is fully (mostly) funded. Yes property taxes are high, but you at least know you'll get your money in retirement. Fire, police, teachers in Chicago in 20 years are likely screwed when they go to retire. They'll likely get half of what they were expecting.
My Chicago cop friends about my same age are getting out at I think 47 from CPD. If it's around they'd still get the pension, but they want to get to SS years and work for a suburban department that is less risky. And yes I know pension people don't pay SS, but they work side gigs as security so it's W-2.
EBGuy says
The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.
Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.
Chicago has most the population, but is a thorn in the rest of the state. Everything outside of Chicago is fully (mostly) funded. Yes property taxes are high, but you at least know you'll get your money in retirement. Fire, police, teachers in Chicago in 20 years are likely screwed when they go to retire. They'll likely get half of what they were expecting.
My Chicago cop friends about my same age are getting out at I think 47 from CPD. If it's around they'd still get the pension, but they want to get to SS years and work for a suburban department that is less risky. And yes I know pension people don't pay SS, but they work side gigs as security so it's W-2.
6565
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 25, 9:05am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 25, 9:05am
WookieMan says
Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.
Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.
Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.
6566
WookieMan
2025 Jun 25, 9:35am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 25, 9:35am
MolotovCocktail says
I did say property taxes, so I own that. I know of prop 13. That said they'll just jack up the gas tax, registration on vehicles, permits, sales tax you name it. Hell parking in the city they could double. EV since there's a high amount of them out there will be taxed higher.
Lived it in Chicago. They sold the Skyway to Indiana to cover debt. Parking meters for 100 years to a private company. Parking enforcement and fees. It's coming your way. I don't wish it upon you guys, but it's coming. For those that own great, but for the average citizen or renter, they will get a 10-20% hit somehow through random taxes.
WookieMan says
Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.
Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.
I did say property taxes, so I own that. I know of prop 13. That said they'll just jack up the gas tax, registration on vehicles, permits, sales tax you name it. Hell parking in the city they could double. EV since there's a high amount of them out there will be taxed higher.
Lived it in Chicago. They sold the Skyway to Indiana to cover debt. Parking meters for 100 years to a private company. Parking enforcement and fees. It's coming your way. I don't wish it upon you guys, but it's coming. For those that own great, but for the average citizen or renter, they will get a 10-20% hit somehow through random taxes.
6569
AD
2025 Jun 25, 11:54pm
AD
2025 Jun 25, 11:54pm
EBGuy says
.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/state-debt-clocks/state-of-california-debt-clock.html
.
The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
San Diego is over $300 million in debt.
The City of Sacramento has a $66 million budget deficit.
San Francisco has a $876 million budget deficit.
.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/state-debt-clocks/state-of-california-debt-clock.html
.
6570
Misc
2025 Jun 25, 11:58pm
Sure, glad they all operate with a balanced budget amendment. - Good luck holding them accountable.
6571
WookieMan
2025 Jun 26, 4:42am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 26, 4:42am
MolotovCocktail says
Yeah, but now they'll have to disclose information on their bitcoin and will likely need to keep it in an exchange. Complete opposite of what everyone claims that it is safe and secure. You'll have to give access in my opinion for them to take it as collateral.
Stupid though by Fannie and Freddie, but I might make a nice dime as word gets out. I've got a decent amount of shares of FNMA at $1.20ish and it's at $10 now.
There's no stoppage if coins crash is the problem. With stocks they'll shut down the exchanges to minimize the loses with a big crash and let people think about what is going on. A few bitcoin whales could sell $2B worth of it and that would crash the market. Now you bring exchanges in that have been hacked and it's ballgame over. Hopefully I get a bounce and will dump half of FNMA.
Oh ffs!
Yeah, but now they'll have to disclose information on their bitcoin and will likely need to keep it in an exchange. Complete opposite of what everyone claims that it is safe and secure. You'll have to give access in my opinion for them to take it as collateral.
Stupid though by Fannie and Freddie, but I might make a nice dime as word gets out. I've got a decent amount of shares of FNMA at $1.20ish and it's at $10 now.
There's no stoppage if coins crash is the problem. With stocks they'll shut down the exchanges to minimize the loses with a big crash and let people think about what is going on. A few bitcoin whales could sell $2B worth of it and that would crash the market. Now you bring exchanges in that have been hacked and it's ballgame over. Hopefully I get a bounce and will dump half of FNMA.
6572
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jun 26, 5:50am
Two things come to mind.
1. Since bitcoin can literally go to infinity, this means home prices could as well? Although not enough people own bitcoin for that to happen.
2. If bitcoin is used as collateral, will banks have some type of margin calls on the dips?
All this financial foolishness seems to have no end. They can keep bullshit going forever it seems.
1. Since bitcoin can literally go to infinity, this means home prices could as well? Although not enough people own bitcoin for that to happen.
2. If bitcoin is used as collateral, will banks have some type of margin calls on the dips?
All this financial foolishness seems to have no end. They can keep bullshit going forever it seems.
6574
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 26, 9:10am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 26, 9:10am
WookieMan says
Doesn't say it is to be used as collateral, just for risk assessment.
But that will probably come next.
WookieMan says
It's 100% political. To help the Whales who can't liquidate their crypto holdings w/o crashing the price.
Glock-n-Load says
Again, doesn't say that it will be used as collateral. Not yet.
Fortwaye says
Why you acting surprised.
Yeah, but now they'll have to disclose information on their bitcoin and will likely need to keep it in an exchange. Complete opposite of what everyone claims that it is safe and secure. You'll have to give access in my opinion for them to take it as collateral.
Doesn't say it is to be used as collateral, just for risk assessment.
But that will probably come next.
WookieMan says
Stupid though by Fannie and Freddie,
It's 100% political. To help the Whales who can't liquidate their crypto holdings w/o crashing the price.
Glock-n-Load says
If bitcoin is used as collateral, will banks have some type of margin calls on the dips
Again, doesn't say that it will be used as collateral. Not yet.
Fortwaye says
is this scam real? our own government is openly scamming us?
Why you acting surprised.
6575
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 26, 10:38am
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 26, 10:38am
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/may-2025-new-home-sales.html
Real Estate Sales of new homes tanked in May, pushing supply up to a 3-year high
Real Estate Sales of new homes tanked in May, pushing supply up to a 3-year high
6576
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 26, 10:53am
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 26, 10:53am
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14839107/florida-condo-law-home-values-hoa.html
Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless
In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.
On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.
I want to know the monthly fee on those units.
Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless
In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.
On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.
I want to know the monthly fee on those units.
6577
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jun 26, 11:17am
zzyzzx says
You can assume it’s about $1,000/month AND there’s probably a special assessment coming up on it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14839107/florida-condo-law-home-values-hoa.html
Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless
In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.
On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.
I want to know the monthly fee on those units.
You can assume it’s about $1,000/month AND there’s probably a special assessment coming up on it.
6578
WookieMan
2025 Jun 26, 12:01pm
WookieMan
2025 Jun 26, 12:01pm
zzyzzx says
You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14839107/florida-condo-law-home-values-hoa.html
Condo owners wake up to grim reality that their homes are worthless
In Boynton Beach for example, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at Hunters Run Country Club with access to a resort-style pool and high-end amenities is selling for just $10,000. The owner paid $60,000 for it in 2001. It's now worth $3 per square-foot.
On Marco Island, a one-bedroom, two-bathroom condo complete with water access at Sunrise Bay Resort is listed for $9,000.
I want to know the monthly fee on those units.
You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.
6579
AD
2025 Jun 27, 1:09am
AD
2025 Jun 27, 1:09am
WookieMan says
No, there are no trailers in Hunters Run ( https://www.huntersrun.net/real-estate ).
I've never seen trashy condos in Florida since they are run by an HOA. Its upscale apartment living such as Harbour Villas at Bay Point in Panama City Beach, which is not on the beach.
.
You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.
No, there are no trailers in Hunters Run ( https://www.huntersrun.net/real-estate ).
I've never seen trashy condos in Florida since they are run by an HOA. Its upscale apartment living such as Harbour Villas at Bay Point in Panama City Beach, which is not on the beach.
.
6580
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 27, 5:36am
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 27, 5:36am
WookieMan says
Article specifically states that they are condos.
From the pictures they don't look like trailers either:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Hunters-Run_Boynton-Beach_FL/pnd-hide
Here is one:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/17-Stratford-Dr-E-Apt-F_Boynton-Beach_FL_33436_M56375-95335?from=srp-list-card
$1,425/mo condo fee
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/23-Westgate-Ln-Apt-B_Boynton-Beach_FL_33436_M95175-63742?from=srp-list-card
$1,631/mo condo fee
Not trailers, but condo fees that are basically apartment rent,
You do know these are trailer park type communities? I wouldn't touch a condo in FL unless it has a view on the beach. Most are trash.
Article specifically states that they are condos.
From the pictures they don't look like trailers either:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Hunters-Run_Boynton-Beach_FL/pnd-hide
Here is one:
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/17-Stratford-Dr-E-Apt-F_Boynton-Beach_FL_33436_M56375-95335?from=srp-list-card
$1,425/mo condo fee
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/23-Westgate-Ln-Apt-B_Boynton-Beach_FL_33436_M95175-63742?from=srp-list-card
$1,631/mo condo fee
Not trailers, but condo fees that are basically apartment rent,
6581
WookieMan
2025 Jun 27, 6:17am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 27, 6:17am
Trailer park TYPE. One word there that is important. Condos can be trashy buildings.
I get frustrated in this thread. I've been in thousands of houses and condos NOT including friends and family. Working in Chicago about 30% of our sales were condos. There are trailer park TYPE condos out there. Not well kept, crime, drugs, drunks, etc. I've seen it all.
I also have looked at condos with my dad when younger in the Panhandle of FL. There are shit condo complexes. Your typical mid rise 2-3 story building with prices the white trash can afford or ghetto blacks. That area is also off 95. Those are people going to the south for service jobs, that likely are doing meth and other stuff. Easy to keep the grounds clean in FL as the grass species they use barely grows. Perennial plants need work maybe 2 times a year.
This should have been my main point. The condo fee is likely high because they have to maintain a building no one wants to live in. Or there's a special assessment they passing on to the potential new owner. That generally means it's a shit hole.
I get frustrated in this thread. I've been in thousands of houses and condos NOT including friends and family. Working in Chicago about 30% of our sales were condos. There are trailer park TYPE condos out there. Not well kept, crime, drugs, drunks, etc. I've seen it all.
I also have looked at condos with my dad when younger in the Panhandle of FL. There are shit condo complexes. Your typical mid rise 2-3 story building with prices the white trash can afford or ghetto blacks. That area is also off 95. Those are people going to the south for service jobs, that likely are doing meth and other stuff. Easy to keep the grounds clean in FL as the grass species they use barely grows. Perennial plants need work maybe 2 times a year.
This should have been my main point. The condo fee is likely high because they have to maintain a building no one wants to live in. Or there's a special assessment they passing on to the potential new owner. That generally means it's a shit hole.
6582
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 27, 11:29am
zzyzzx
2025 Jun 27, 11:29am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-red-flag-data-show-161851084.html
Data show increase in cancellations of home purchase agreements versus a year ago
Data show increase in cancellations of home purchase agreements versus a year ago
6583
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 27, 12:13pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 27, 12:13pm
WookieMan says
Maybe if you would stop using personally made up nomenclature after insisting you are a RE expert. That confuses ppl at best. At worse, it pushes ppl to believe you are full of it.
I get frustrated in this thread. I've been in thousands of houses and condos NOT including friends and family. Working in Chicago about 30% of our sales were condos. There are trailer park TYPE condos out there. Not well kept, crime, drugs, drunks, etc. I've seen it all.
Maybe if you would stop using personally made up nomenclature after insisting you are a RE expert. That confuses ppl at best. At worse, it pushes ppl to believe you are full of it.
6584
AD
2025 Jun 27, 12:17pm
AD
2025 Jun 27, 12:17pm
WookieMan says
Please refer to my comment #6579 above.
I even gave the website to the condo community (and other homes), which clearly shows its not a "trailer park type community". This refutes your comment that it was a trailer park type community.
Even the "cheapest" condos in Bay County / Panama City are well operated and maintained because any condo in Florida will have a proactive HOA, and even some Karens on the board to make sure that is the case.
.
Trailer park TYPE. One word there that is important. Condos can be trashy buildings.
I get frustrated in this thread. I've been in thousands of houses and condos NOT including friends and family. Working in Chicago about 30% of our sales were condos. There are trailer park TYPE condos out there. Not well kept, crime, drugs, drunks, etc. I've seen it all.
Please refer to my comment #6579 above.
I even gave the website to the condo community (and other homes), which clearly shows its not a "trailer park type community". This refutes your comment that it was a trailer park type community.
Even the "cheapest" condos in Bay County / Panama City are well operated and maintained because any condo in Florida will have a proactive HOA, and even some Karens on the board to make sure that is the case.
.
6585
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 27, 12:28pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 27, 12:28pm
AD says
@AD see my post here https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2186182 to unravel the confusion.
He uses "trailer park type community" as a completely different term of his own personal choosing that isn't the same meaning as the literal words "trailer park type community" that you, me and that guy behind the tree do.
Then he bitches when the rest of us don't understand his meaning.
But hey. You all jump on me when I call him out for his communication BS. So I am just going to sit back with some popcorn and watch you all thrash over this one yourselves. Not my fight.
I even gave the website to the condo community (and other homes), which clearly shows its not a "trailer park type community". This refutes your comment that it was a trailer park type community.
@AD see my post here https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2186182 to unravel the confusion.
He uses "trailer park type community" as a completely different term of his own personal choosing that isn't the same meaning as the literal words "trailer park type community" that you, me and that guy behind the tree do.
Then he bitches when the rest of us don't understand his meaning.
But hey. You all jump on me when I call him out for his communication BS. So I am just going to sit back with some popcorn and watch you all thrash over this one yourselves. Not my fight.
6586
AD
2025 Jun 27, 1:34pm
AD
2025 Jun 27, 1:34pm
MolotovCocktail says
I understand as I knew Wookie means it is a trashy community or neighborhood and I disagree with him based on my own experiences of living throughout Florida in townhome and condo HOAs like Panama City Beach, Cocoa Beach, South Florida / Palm Beach County, etc
.
AD says
I even gave the website to the condo community (and other homes), which clearly shows its not a "trailer park type community". This refutes your comment that it was a trailer park type community.
AD see my post here https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2186182 to unravel the confusion.
He uses "trailer park type community" as a completely different term of his own personal choosing that isn't the same meaning as the literal words "trailer park type community" that you, me and that guy behind the tree do.
Then he bitches when the rest of us don't understand his meaning.
I understand as I knew Wookie means it is a trashy community or neighborhood and I disagree with him based on my own experiences of living throughout Florida in townhome and condo HOAs like Panama City Beach, Cocoa Beach, South Florida / Palm Beach County, etc
.
6587
AD
2025 Jun 27, 5:58pm
AD
2025 Jun 27, 5:58pm
.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/27/ice-trump-tariffs-home-sales
article states the housing market is in the dumps
.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/27/ice-trump-tariffs-home-sales
article states the housing market is in the dumps
.
6588
AD
2025 Jun 27, 8:30pm
AD
2025 Jun 27, 8:30pm
WookieMan says
Wookie, tell me about your home state of Illinois :-/
Illinois' Disastrous Demographics: Fewer Youth, A Drop In Working-Age Residents And A Jump In Elderly
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-disastrous-demographics-fewer-youth-drop-working-age-residents-and-jump-elderly
Here’s what the latest demographic data shows for Illinois:
Nation’s worst drop in number of residents age 18 and under. Illinois had 184,000 fewer residents aged 18 and under in 2024 vs 2020. That’s a 6% drop, the biggest percentage loss in the country.
To be sure, much of Illinois’ decline can be attributed to the national trend of declining births. In all, just 11 states increased their youth population over the same period. But having the worst decline shows Illinois is in special trouble. Every one of Illinois’ neighbors had a far smaller decline than we did.
Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.
,
That generally means it's a shit hole.
Wookie, tell me about your home state of Illinois :-/
Illinois' Disastrous Demographics: Fewer Youth, A Drop In Working-Age Residents And A Jump In Elderly
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-disastrous-demographics-fewer-youth-drop-working-age-residents-and-jump-elderly
Here’s what the latest demographic data shows for Illinois:
Nation’s worst drop in number of residents age 18 and under. Illinois had 184,000 fewer residents aged 18 and under in 2024 vs 2020. That’s a 6% drop, the biggest percentage loss in the country.
To be sure, much of Illinois’ decline can be attributed to the national trend of declining births. In all, just 11 states increased their youth population over the same period. But having the worst decline shows Illinois is in special trouble. Every one of Illinois’ neighbors had a far smaller decline than we did.
Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.
,
6589
PanicanDemoralizer
2025 Jun 27, 8:52pm
PanicanDemoralizer
2025 Jun 27, 8:52pm
I can't believe how cheap apartments have become vs. COVID era in Florida. Hearing similar in Tennessee
Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.
The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.
Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.
The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.
6591
AD
2025 Jun 27, 8:58pm
AD
2025 Jun 27, 8:58pm
AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper says
Yeah RD Offutt Farms owns Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach Florida. They stopped construction last year on the 226 unit development after they broke ground.
.
I can't believe how cheap apartments have become vs. COVID era in Florida. Hearing similar in Tennessee
Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.
The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.
Yeah RD Offutt Farms owns Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach Florida. They stopped construction last year on the 226 unit development after they broke ground.
.
6592
PeopleUnited
2025 Jun 27, 9:02pm
PeopleUnited
2025 Jun 27, 9:02pm
AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper says
Mass/self deportations having the desired effect?
I can't believe how cheap apartments have become vs. COVID era in Florida. Hearing similar in Tennessee
Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.
The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.
Mass/self deportations having the desired effect?
6593
PanicanDemoralizer
2025 Jun 27, 9:10pm
PanicanDemoralizer
2025 Jun 27, 9:10pm
PeopleUnited says
Part of it. The other major factors I think is back to in-person and flat out overexpansion.
Mass/self deportations having the desired effect?
Part of it. The other major factors I think is back to in-person and flat out overexpansion.
6594
WookieMan
2025 Jun 27, 11:56pm
WookieMan
2025 Jun 27, 11:56pm
AD says
Has nothing to do with real estate. People either buy or sell. People are buying in IL. Can't unsee what I see daily.
And yes there are shitty trailer park condos everywhere. How many condos have you been in? No online. Physically.
Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny
Has nothing to do with real estate. People either buy or sell. People are buying in IL. Can't unsee what I see daily.
And yes there are shitty trailer park condos everywhere. How many condos have you been in? No online. Physically.
6595
AD
2025 Jun 28, 12:25am
AD
2025 Jun 28, 12:25am
WookieMan says
I have lived in condos in Cocoa Beach, South Florida and Panama City Beach. I've lived in about 7 condo HOAs in Florida.
Demographics has a lot to do with commerce like real estate.
If Illinois is dying off which is a demographics matter then there is less new housing starts for example.
I have no idea why you claim demographic trends have nothing to do with real estate. Have another drink and keep posting like this.
.
AD says
Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny
Has nothing to do with real estate. People either buy or sell. People are buying in IL. Can't unsee what I see daily.
And yes there are shitty trailer park condos everywhere. How many condos have you been in? No online. Physically.
I have lived in condos in Cocoa Beach, South Florida and Panama City Beach. I've lived in about 7 condo HOAs in Florida.
Demographics has a lot to do with commerce like real estate.
If Illinois is dying off which is a demographics matter then there is less new housing starts for example.
I have no idea why you claim demographic trends have nothing to do with real estate. Have another drink and keep posting like this.
.
6596
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Jun 28, 4:25am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Jun 28, 4:25am
AD says
Good to see South Carolina on the list. Personal observation - lots of young families with multiple kids in the areas I’ve been. Best license plate -
“Procreate"
Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny
Good to see South Carolina on the list. Personal observation - lots of young families with multiple kids in the areas I’ve been. Best license plate -
“Procreate"
6597
WookieMan
2025 Jun 28, 8:09am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 28, 8:09am
AD says
Not a knock. Sold over 300 condos at least. Common spaces, maintenance, etc. I get to see the entire building during inspections and showings. I'd walk past units (pre-legal) that smelled like a bong. Bitching and yelling at 9am. Drunks in the hallway carrying beer and booze.
This isn't zillow telling what a building is like. I saw it. I went through it. You seem like a guy that doesn't want to live in a shitty spot. Problem is there are a TON of shit spots. You just won't go to them which is fine. I had to for work and not purchase.
I think maybe 2-3 times that someone could argue I was fudging on this site. I own it. I don't lie about my real estate experience. Fact is most on this thread go on links and photos a realtor or hired. You think they're going to make it look bad and not get a commission? You have to physically see it. And I'm talking 300 SALES, not showings and walk throughs.
I have lived in condos in Cocoa Beach, South Florida and Panama City Beach. I've lived in about 7 condo HOAs in Florida.
Not a knock. Sold over 300 condos at least. Common spaces, maintenance, etc. I get to see the entire building during inspections and showings. I'd walk past units (pre-legal) that smelled like a bong. Bitching and yelling at 9am. Drunks in the hallway carrying beer and booze.
This isn't zillow telling what a building is like. I saw it. I went through it. You seem like a guy that doesn't want to live in a shitty spot. Problem is there are a TON of shit spots. You just won't go to them which is fine. I had to for work and not purchase.
I think maybe 2-3 times that someone could argue I was fudging on this site. I own it. I don't lie about my real estate experience. Fact is most on this thread go on links and photos a realtor or hired. You think they're going to make it look bad and not get a commission? You have to physically see it. And I'm talking 300 SALES, not showings and walk throughs.
6598
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 28, 1:03pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 28, 1:03pm
AD says
Yeah. But they have too many retirees.
Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.
Yeah. But they have too many retirees.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.