patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

Noooo...it's not 2007 - 2009 at all!

So the 30 yr mortgage rate is around 6.8%

why not offer a rate of 6% if the buyer puts down a +20% deposit ? it would seem low risk if there is a remote chance housing prices would drop 15% from the date that the home is purchased

I remember hearing on Bloomberg radio (WBBR) that one main reason the mortgage rates are high is that mortgage bond buyers want a higher rate since there is risk housing prices will sink and create the risk of mortgage defaults.

That's hard to reconcile with the fact that a very large majority of mortgages are backed by the federal government such as Veteran Affairs, FHA, etc.

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zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

The success/failure of RE investment is not measured in two year periods. Heck, I even give my stonk picks 5 years to run.

AD says

it would seem low risk if there is a remote chance housing prices would drop 15% from the date that the home is purchased

Less risk than that if they pay monthly for two years. Lenders make all their money up front. They really just need a 5 year performing loan max and they're in the green no matter what. Would take a 50% collapse in housing prices.

The problem with 2006 was people defaulted month 4 or 5. Then stopped paying for 2 years. People are generally not defaulting early in the loan. Prices may drop, but these aren't the same loans now. I haven't seen this 1% down loan mentioned above. Also what is the credit score? Likely has to be close to 800 FICO score.

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas. The map above proves my point outside of a few interior states. Minnesota is obvious with metro flee from Minneapolis to cheaper suburbs or rural areas. Likely more due to race. I don't know about a few of the others inland. Also it's Zillow, so IDX data from the MLS. Not all home sales. Plenty of homes sell off market.

MolotovCocktail says

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

Redditor's Condo
He won't get what he paid for
Ooooh Baby
He won't get what he's after....
Burnin' down the Mondo Condo

WookieMan says

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

I sort of agree with you but I suppose it depends on what we'd call a "crash".

According to the ®eal Estate web sites our sh*tbox in East SJ is down a bit more than $200K since the 2022 peak, about 15% or so. It doesn't "feel like" a crash to me, we did not borrow to buy at the peak.

WookieMan says

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Townhome prices in Panama City Beach have decreased about 10% from all time high set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%

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AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sorry, that belonged to George W.

Misc says

AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sorry, that belonged to George W.

Clinton policies led to the house bubble that started to burst around 2006.

Clinton left some real damage like with China free trade deal. We did not start to experience the bad effects of free trade until about 8 years after Clinton left office.

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MolotovCocktail says

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

UT - Salt Lake City. CO - Denver. ID - Boise. MT - Missoula and Bozeman. WV is within a short drive of DC and coastal areas. TN - Nashville. Nebraska who knows. MO - St. Louis. OK, who knows. Arkansas - who knows.

What is the median loss in the states listed versus the coastal areas? I'm not doing the work. You know the answer. Waaaaaaay less. OK, MO, Nebraska, Arkansas are all likely lower than 3-5% value drop. Rounding error basically.

AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sure he did.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

UT - Salt Lake City. CO - Denver. ID - Boise. MT - Missoula and Bozeman. WV is within a short drive of DC and coastal areas. TN - Nashville. Nebraska who knows. MO - St. Louis. OK, who knows. Arkansas - who knows.

What is the median loss in the states listed versus the coastal areas? I'm not doing the work. You know the answer. Waaaaaaay less. OK, MO, Nebraska, Arkansas are all likely lower than 3-5% value drop. Rounding error basically.

Your 'work' would be bullshit anyway.

AGAIN:

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-faces-housing-crisis-no-one-buying-homes-2083842

California Faces Housing Crisis: 'No One Is Buying Homes'
Published Jun 13, 2025 at 6:00 AM EDT

MolotovCocktail says

Your 'work' would be bullshit anyway.

AGAIN:

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Jeez. Get a life.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Sure. Let him get away with posting crap on this and other rhreads.

MolotovCocktail says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Sure. Let him get away with posting crap on this and other rhreads.

Dude I told you my reasoning. The NATIONAL loses are due to coastal areas. Not a 2% loss in Arkansas or Oklahoma. Is it a loss, yes, I conceded that. But when you say prices are down everywhere and then post a map showing that's not true. -2% in Arkansas and -15% in FL is different. -5% in Oklahoma versus -15% in CA.

Not sure what is so hard to understand about this. The problem is in high priced coastal areas. If you can't understand that I'll have to get my special ED degree for you... or my 15 years of real estate experience. Just stay in your lane and be an online BS artist. Everyone here is just wrong. You know everything. I like to have conversations and you destroy every single one you're involved in. And it's usually wrong.

It's not even going down in rural CA. It's flat to modestly up depending on the county. Big cities like SF and LA are mostly decliners.

WookieMan says

Dude I told you my reasoning. The NATIONAL loses are due to coastal areas. Not a 2% loss in Arkansas or Oklahoma.

No. You changed your tune. You were just ranting about the 'coasts' vs Dumfuq Rural Illinois - no such logic was even mentioned until later when you felt forced to.

And most of your rant was filled with ad homenim invectives.

Now you are just trying to spin things otherwise.

MolotovCocktail says

No. You changed your tune.

Do you not know what coastal areas are dude? Losses on home sales at $200k in Arkansas versus home sales at $800k in CA make the national look way worse. It's coastal areas. A 2% loss in Arkansas is a nothing burger. A 15% loss in CA move the needle but doesn't really matter to much of the country.

What is hard to understand? I have no issues with coastal areas, it's just fact. A 2% drop in Arkansas versus a 10-15% drop in CA or FL is massively different. Oh god the world is dying. No people that overpaid in certain areas are eating it. My statement stands. The classic ad hominem BS as well. At least I spelled it right. You IWOG in disguise?

WookieMan says

A 2% loss in Arkansas is a nothing burger. A 15% loss in CA move the needle but doesn't really matter to much of the country.

I just look at the median USA housing price chart to gauge the general mood of the market and any trend

I like to examine on Wolfman's Wolf Street website the metro area charts

and I focus on 3 bedroom +1 car garage townhome market in Panama City Beach to get an idea on middle/working class real estate market , as well as gauge the vacation rentals investment market by examining condo price trends in Panama City Beach

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AD says


EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Rufo

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

EBGuy

EBGuy = Christopher Rufo ? ? ?

WookieMan says

Do you not know what coastal areas are dude

^^^^ part of your tune is changing definitions. Once again, you got caught but insist otherwise.

Oklahoma isn't on the coast.

Some are not on the coasts.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sellers-flooding-home-market-while-175657593.html

How prices are still rising is an amazing feat though. IMO

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-rents-could-good-news-145527021.html

Falling Rents Could Be Good News for Inflation

MolotovCocktail says

^^^^ part of your tune is changing definitions. Once again, you got caught but insist otherwise.

Oklahoma isn't on the coast.

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas. Let me know how Oklahoma is dragging down national median. Might move it $2. The horror. If even that much. It doesn't matter nationally. Again do you not get what coastal areas are and trying to prove some not existent point? You're the one throwing in midwestern states where value barely dropped from already low values and a tiny percentage.

Good luck selling a house in OK for $20M. That's a normal day in CA. When the prices drop that drops national averages, median and price. That doesn't mean it's happening at that scale in OK or MO. Understand stats and geography. You might be in a market either not able to get in or losing your ass, that's not most the country if you account for land mass. Populated coastal cities drive national numbers. It's really not even a discussion.

Glock-n-Load says

Some are not on the coasts.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sellers-flooding-home-market-while-175657593.html

Wookie can't admit that he was wrong. So he gaslights.

WookieMan says

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas

More of you twisting things around because you can't admit you were full of shit.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas

More of you twisting things around because you can't admit you were full of shit.

Is the national average not 80% based on coastal areas. A yes or a no. You put a map up not showing the percentage or median price of the non-coastal areas. Back up what you're talking about.

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-rents-could-good-news-145527021.html

Falling Rents Could Be Good News for Inflation

Yep, this is at 2020 rent prices: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1610-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87631272_zpid/

And that townhome HOA called Annabellas is about 50% owned by landlord investors

so if rent goes down, the price would at least would stay the same in an attempt to maintain a certain "cap rate" or ROI

I saw an article in Fort Lauderdale's Sun Sentental this week that shows out-of-state insurance carriers like State Farm and Progressive charge a lot less for Florida property insurance
.

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!

MolotovCocktail says

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!

Honestly, the truth is a real bitch to know. All I'm hearing is 1) prices are still rising and 2) Agents saying "This is a weird market". I think agents say things like this when the market turns.

https://patriotnewswire.com/deportation-the-real-fix-for-americas-housing-crunch/

Deportation: The Real Fix for America’s Housing Crunch!

MolotovCocktail says

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!

Zillow.... lol. They don't have all the data. And these numbers are hysterical. So a $1M house in CA lost $50k? That's a joke after the increases we've seen. If you can't afford $50k loses don't buy in that market. Everyone else lost worst case $5k-10k in the none coastal areas or gained.

Not so for CA, OR, WA, TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MA and Maine. Coastal areas.

CO and WV are the outliers off the coast. Though WV is close to the coast as well.

The midwest gained or is within the realm of error on stats. Like I've said you clearly live on a different planet. The locations in the 2nd line drive national numbers because homes are expensive ON THE COASTS.

My statements stand and the hole without a ladder you dug is getting deeper and it's with your own evidence which is funny. These are also comical losses. You rent, I get it. That's fine. Don't portray the market falsely. 0.03% in IA? 0.06% in ND? 0.04% in SD? 0.08% in VA? 0.02% NM? The housing market is doomed!!!!! That's like not tipping $20 in these locations.

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Yeah Wookie, the Center Of Mass is closer to those regions where a starter single family detached home goes for at least $750K

What props up those regions like in California ? Are there enough rich krazy (and/or HI-1B) Asians coming from abroad to continue to buy there ? Are there enough tech jobs paying at least $300K a year for someone to buy a $1 million bungalow near San Jose ?

One thing is there is definitely a correlation between the S&P 500 / tech stocks and the fiscal health of California, including its state deficits.

Demographics is the most important socioeconomic factor as what happens to the baby boomer homes as well as the construction rate for new homes.

30% of Japan is over age 65: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-countries-with-the-highest-share-of-seniors/

% is over age 65 : Maine at 23%, Florida at 22% and California at 16% , and about 17.5% for USA

but about 47% of Florida is under age 40 (with 25% between age 20 to 40)

about 28% of California is between age 20 and 40

and Illinois it is around 25% (with 18% of Illinois above age 65)

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WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/underwater-mortgages-negative-equity-charts-4e5978a1

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

Yes, I'll bow down to bullshit. 50+ new homes with 20-30 years of nothing. Must be ghosts. No one said other markets can't go down. You're the one gaslighting. Those markets are coastal. My point stands. Fly on a plane and go somewhere else instead of sitting at home. And go all "ad hominem" on this comment.

You're wrong. High value areas are eating it a little bit. Coastal. The rest of the country is fine outside of CO and AZ if we're talking inland. 0.04% matters? Not sure what planet you live on.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

You have to look at the median sales price and volume of sales for each zip code, but I agree that the California, Texas, Colorado and Florida dominate a lot of the market.

That is why its best to examine by metro area. Austin has gotten clobbered.

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