patrick.net

B.A.C.A.H. says

Sticks and Stones.

Please comment on this: 40% of Californians are on Medicaid

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AD says

GNL says
I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

I guess they statistically sample the real estate offices to Century 21, Coldwell Banker, etc and ask them how many listings (sellers) they have and how many clients their buyers agents have.

99% of agents don't count the number of ACTUAL buyers they have. They might be under reporting because of tire kickers and people that can't get pre-approved. A buyer agent might have 30 buyers in their CRM pipeline but don't count them. We still live in our current house and people still keep asking us they can buy our place because they see us building.

Cities that's more difficult. That's where there's a lack of buyers. It's an impossible metric to track. At least 20 people have asked us when we're selling. Those 20 buyers didn't get counted that asked us. This is a town of 2k people (including kids). The buyers are there.

As I've said cities and major metros bring the numbers way down if there's a way to even track the amount of buyers in the first place. It's highly likely this 500,000 number for sellers outnumbering buyers is simple city homes and people leaving. I've got a ton of 25-35 year old electricians, plumbers, construction workers with good wages living around me. Those guys don't want to be in the city. Most get work in suburbs 30 minutes away commute. They live here for half the cost.

It's not that I know more, but it's what I witness in surrounding towns. A lot of white collar professionals as well. They'd rather commute than pay double the price for say a place like Naperville or Crystal Lake, IL. Chicago is still slowly dying as a city and that's the majority of the states population loss or movement. For every 1 person moving in I'd guess 5 move out. Could be in state still. Big factor is Chicago schools suck and crime. That's most cities though.

@Wookieman

That doesn’t make sense in regards to my comment. Unless you thought they = realtors.

Loan Applications, good measure.

Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell again in the latest reporting week, having collapsed by 39% from the same week in 2019, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Mortgage applications are an early indicator of demand in the housing market, preceding “pending sales” and “closed sales” for this period.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/04/demand-in-the-housing-market-just-got-even-worse-as-supply-piles-up/

40% down from pre-COVID is a sign of serious buyer disinterest.

WookieMan says

"The number of buyers is not reported. No one ever asked our office about buyers ever. Listings are the only metric that can be tracked mostly via entry into MLS systems."

So who is buying the houses your office is selling? The Easter Bunny or the Great Pumpkin?

AmericanKulak says

Loan Applications, good measure.

Yeah the Wolfman at Wolf Street website warned all the way back in 2021 about another housing bubble

The current purchase mortgage application level is at 1995 levels and worse than the housing bust of 2009-2012

See below graph from Calculated Risk Blog , and the 2020-2022 run up was about 40% below 2005 levels :-/




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AD says

Please comment on this: 40% of Californians are on Medicaid

Sanctuary state.

AD says

GNL says

I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

I guess they statistically sample the real estate offices to Century 21, Coldwell Banker, etc and ask them how many listings (sellers) they have and how many clients their buyers agents have.

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As long as the collection of the information is consistent across time, the change in the statistic is likely accurate even if the absolute value is wildly off. For example, if the collected data double-counts every buyer, the absolute value of the statistic is off by a factor of 2; however, to say the number of buyers went up 20% or down 20% would still hold completely accurate.

AD says

EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman

Given our out migration problem, two more weeks is the joke (how about 25 years?!)...
State planners don’t see a turnaround in the offing, either. Consider that in 2007, demographers projected that California’s population would grow from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. But today, the 2050 projection is for just 40 million Californians.
https://www.governing.com/workforce/californias-long-term-population-slide-threatens-its-economy

EBGuy says

AD says

EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman

Given our out migration problem, two more weeks is the joke (how about 25 years?!)...
State planners don’t see a turnaround in the offing, either. Consider that in 2007, demographers projected that California’s population would grow from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. But today, the 2050 projection is for just 40 million Californians.
https://www.governing.com/workforce/californias-long-term-population-slide-threatens-its-economy

That means any "new residential construction" in California is likely demolition of old residential units, like at least 75 years old. California's median and average age is about 1 year less than the national average.

And it could be the birthrate of those born in California (as well as rich Asian migrants and poor Latin American immigrants) compensates for the exodus so that the population remains fixed around 40 million for the next 20 years.

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AD says

And it could be the birthrate of those born in California (as well as rich Asian migrants and poor Latin American immigrants) compensates for the exodus so that the population remains fixed around 40 million for the next 20 years.

Population seems to have leveled off at about 40 million. My guess, though, is that people generally reporting high (taxed) incomes are leaving and being replaced by those who report low or no income. Despite ever-increasing state income taxes, California is finding it hard to raise the revenue to feed the wasteful spending as well as the 50% that are leeching off the government system. On the corporate tax side... are booming silicon valley businesses growing fast enough to compensate for the companies fleeing the state?

(Explains why Wookie seems confused.)

https://www.newsweek.com/americans-slashing-prices-home-listings-2081817

Americans Are Slashing Prices on Home Listings

SunnyvaleCA says

Population seems to have leveled off at about 40 million. My guess, though, is that people generally reporting high (taxed) incomes are leaving and being replaced by those who report low or no income. Despite ever-increasing state income taxes, California is finding it hard to raise the revenue to feed the wasteful spending as well as the 50% that are leeching off the government system.

Yep, like 40% of Californians are on Medicaid.

Hollywood, Silicon Valley and whatever is left of aeronautical manufacturing is not producing enough tax receipts to sustain California and keep it financially solvent.

Trump knows this and that is why he is experimenting by slightly closing the federal funds valve to California to see how Newsom responds.

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https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

Noooo...it's not 2007 - 2009 at all!

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

MolotovCocktail says

Noooo...it's not 2007 - 2009 at all!

So the 30 yr mortgage rate is around 6.8%

why not offer a rate of 6% if the buyer puts down a +20% deposit ? it would seem low risk if there is a remote chance housing prices would drop 15% from the date that the home is purchased

I remember hearing on Bloomberg radio (WBBR) that one main reason the mortgage rates are high is that mortgage bond buyers want a higher rate since there is risk housing prices will sink and create the risk of mortgage defaults.

That's hard to reconcile with the fact that a very large majority of mortgages are backed by the federal government such as Veteran Affairs, FHA, etc.

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zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

The success/failure of RE investment is not measured in two year periods. Heck, I even give my stonk picks 5 years to run.

AD says

it would seem low risk if there is a remote chance housing prices would drop 15% from the date that the home is purchased

Less risk than that if they pay monthly for two years. Lenders make all their money up front. They really just need a 5 year performing loan max and they're in the green no matter what. Would take a 50% collapse in housing prices.

The problem with 2006 was people defaulted month 4 or 5. Then stopped paying for 2 years. People are generally not defaulting early in the loan. Prices may drop, but these aren't the same loans now. I haven't seen this 1% down loan mentioned above. Also what is the credit score? Likely has to be close to 800 FICO score.

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas. The map above proves my point outside of a few interior states. Minnesota is obvious with metro flee from Minneapolis to cheaper suburbs or rural areas. Likely more due to race. I don't know about a few of the others inland. Also it's Zillow, so IDX data from the MLS. Not all home sales. Plenty of homes sell off market.

MolotovCocktail says

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

Redditor's Condo
He won't get what he paid for
Ooooh Baby
He won't get what he's after....
Burnin' down the Mondo Condo

WookieMan says

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

I sort of agree with you but I suppose it depends on what we'd call a "crash".

According to the ®eal Estate web sites our sh*tbox in East SJ is down a bit more than $200K since the 2022 peak, about 15% or so. It doesn't "feel like" a crash to me, we did not borrow to buy at the peak.

WookieMan says

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Townhome prices in Panama City Beach have decreased about 10% from all time high set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%

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AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sorry, that belonged to George W.

Misc says

AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sorry, that belonged to George W.

Clinton policies led to the house bubble that started to burst around 2006.

Clinton left some real damage like with China free trade deal. We did not start to experience the bad effects of free trade until about 8 years after Clinton left office.

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MolotovCocktail says

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

UT - Salt Lake City. CO - Denver. ID - Boise. MT - Missoula and Bozeman. WV is within a short drive of DC and coastal areas. TN - Nashville. Nebraska who knows. MO - St. Louis. OK, who knows. Arkansas - who knows.

What is the median loss in the states listed versus the coastal areas? I'm not doing the work. You know the answer. Waaaaaaay less. OK, MO, Nebraska, Arkansas are all likely lower than 3-5% value drop. Rounding error basically.

AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sure he did.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

UT - Salt Lake City. CO - Denver. ID - Boise. MT - Missoula and Bozeman. WV is within a short drive of DC and coastal areas. TN - Nashville. Nebraska who knows. MO - St. Louis. OK, who knows. Arkansas - who knows.

What is the median loss in the states listed versus the coastal areas? I'm not doing the work. You know the answer. Waaaaaaay less. OK, MO, Nebraska, Arkansas are all likely lower than 3-5% value drop. Rounding error basically.

Your 'work' would be bullshit anyway.

AGAIN:

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-faces-housing-crisis-no-one-buying-homes-2083842

California Faces Housing Crisis: 'No One Is Buying Homes'
Published Jun 13, 2025 at 6:00 AM EDT

MolotovCocktail says

Your 'work' would be bullshit anyway.

AGAIN:

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Jeez. Get a life.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Sure. Let him get away with posting crap on this and other rhreads.

MolotovCocktail says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Sure. Let him get away with posting crap on this and other rhreads.

Dude I told you my reasoning. The NATIONAL loses are due to coastal areas. Not a 2% loss in Arkansas or Oklahoma. Is it a loss, yes, I conceded that. But when you say prices are down everywhere and then post a map showing that's not true. -2% in Arkansas and -15% in FL is different. -5% in Oklahoma versus -15% in CA.

Not sure what is so hard to understand about this. The problem is in high priced coastal areas. If you can't understand that I'll have to get my special ED degree for you... or my 15 years of real estate experience. Just stay in your lane and be an online BS artist. Everyone here is just wrong. You know everything. I like to have conversations and you destroy every single one you're involved in. And it's usually wrong.

It's not even going down in rural CA. It's flat to modestly up depending on the county. Big cities like SF and LA are mostly decliners.

WookieMan says

Dude I told you my reasoning. The NATIONAL loses are due to coastal areas. Not a 2% loss in Arkansas or Oklahoma.

No. You changed your tune. You were just ranting about the 'coasts' vs Dumfuq Rural Illinois - no such logic was even mentioned until later when you felt forced to.

And most of your rant was filled with ad homenim invectives.

Now you are just trying to spin things otherwise.

MolotovCocktail says

No. You changed your tune.

Do you not know what coastal areas are dude? Losses on home sales at $200k in Arkansas versus home sales at $800k in CA make the national look way worse. It's coastal areas. A 2% loss in Arkansas is a nothing burger. A 15% loss in CA move the needle but doesn't really matter to much of the country.

What is hard to understand? I have no issues with coastal areas, it's just fact. A 2% drop in Arkansas versus a 10-15% drop in CA or FL is massively different. Oh god the world is dying. No people that overpaid in certain areas are eating it. My statement stands. The classic ad hominem BS as well. At least I spelled it right. You IWOG in disguise?

WookieMan says

A 2% loss in Arkansas is a nothing burger. A 15% loss in CA move the needle but doesn't really matter to much of the country.

I just look at the median USA housing price chart to gauge the general mood of the market and any trend

I like to examine on Wolfman's Wolf Street website the metro area charts

and I focus on 3 bedroom +1 car garage townhome market in Panama City Beach to get an idea on middle/working class real estate market , as well as gauge the vacation rentals investment market by examining condo price trends in Panama City Beach

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AD says


EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Rufo

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

EBGuy

EBGuy = Christopher Rufo ? ? ?