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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   497,026 views  4,901 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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3218   AD   2023 Aug 25, 11:54am  

Shaman says

50% white, 25% Asian,


Sounds like that "no busing" allows easily for them to maintain this demographic. I'm surprised the "no busing" policy has not been legally challenged by Democrats and groups like the NAACP.

.
3219   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 11:54am  

ad says

Blue says



lack of new buildings. Its not just CA, I guess its everywhere.


It has not recovered from 2008 housing collapse. And I am not sure why besides zoning reasons and developers not wanting (or economically unable) to build more affordable housing. And the population in the USA continues to increase.

Wolfman at Wolf Street website has been reporting on this especially over the last three years.

.



.

Homebuilders got burned badly in the last housing boom. Some homebuilders downsized 80% of their workforce. This is the reason why there was a lack of building as we came out of the Great Recession.

Then the cost of materials and labor went through the roof after the pandemic. As prices of materials came down, borrowing cost is too expensive to borrow. This explains why the builders just discount prices and push as much inventory out as possible the last few months. Construction loans are mostly adjustable, and the prime rate is around 8.5% now.
3220   AD   2023 Aug 25, 11:55am  

Big_Johnson says

Bigger luxurious homes. There is no money in building affordable tiny shacks.


I understand as its all about maximizing profit in dollars so you have to build as big and luxurious of a home that can sell. And there is enough demand for this type of housing for this construction strategy to thrive.

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3221   Blue   2023 Aug 25, 11:59am  

Big_Johnson says

“ And I am not sure why besides zoning reasons and developers not wanting (or economically unable) to build more affordable housing.”

A builder doesn’t give two shits about affordable housing. A builder runs a business and focuses on high margin products. Bigger luxurious homes. There is no money in building affordable tiny shacks.

The way I understand "affordable housing" of x% (typically 10-20%!) will be charged from the rest (100-x)% to offset x% plus some incentives from gov. It should not cost any to the builder though its a bit overhead in terms of overall project completion time which is negative as it leads to less profitable.
3222   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 12:02pm  

HeadSet says

Well, not quite any neighborhood. True, the builders can put up by right some 2-6 plex buildings in places zoned SFH, but there are always restrictions to keep them away from desirable neighborhoods, such as off-street parking requirements, nearness to a metro line, and limitations on how many can actually be built per 5 years. The new structure also cannot be bigger than the SFL it took down. Because of these restrictions, I would suspect that most inbuilding will be tearing down a 1950s era house in a moderate neighborhood and replacing it with a duplex. Maybe in a more upscale area, they can convert a 3000 sqft home into a 1500 sqft each duplex. Interesting to see if anything is done in a place like Old Glebe.

DMV = DC-Maryland-Virginia. The border area.

Good information. It doesn't sound so terrible now.
3223   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 12:04pm  

Blue says

Misc says



Do you think for an instant that by repealing Prop 13, the other taxes would decrease?

Absolutely, fucking not. The politicians in Sacramento would spend the extra taxes on the homeless and illegals.

There is no limit to the amount of taxes they want.

The California budget deficit this year is forecasted at $34 billion. They are looking at increasing taxes just to cover their already excessive spending.

I completely agree, now there are two enemies for middle and poor. Both rich and gov to extract out everything.

They're in cahoots with each other.
3224   AD   2023 Aug 25, 12:05pm  

$325 a month for property tax: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1621-Wood-Lake-Santa-Ana-CA-92705/2057583706_zpid/

Its about 1.2% rate or a 12 mil rate

I read the average mil rate is 8.2 in Los Angeles area. In the Florida panhandle it is 7.

Granted, Florida panhandle has HOA fees and also high property insurance whereas for a $300,000, the annual property insurance is $2,000.

.
3225   Blue   2023 Aug 25, 12:05pm  

Big_Johnson says


Prop13 is designed so that nobody’s property taxes go out of hand. Renters hate it.
As soon as you become a homeowner you love it. Do some people who inherited prop13 on a multi million dollar home benefit greatly from prop13? Sure. Let them. Who gives a fuck. If I am winning by having a cap on tax increases I am fine with someone else winning more. If we touch prop13 there is a good chance this commiefornia administration will keep raising the shit out of our property taxes. Raising taxes is almost never a good thing.

"hate" and "love" should not be part of the fair taxation system. There is no such thing like absolute fair system but as long as its reasonable fair and sustainable for the most, its good for everyone. CA 1978 Prop13 is THE worst EVIL. I doubt any big business, entire coastal line properties and McMansions paying any taxes at all under Prop 13.
3226   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 12:13pm  

Big_Johnson says

“ And I am not sure why besides zoning reasons and developers not wanting (or economically unable) to build more affordable housing.”

A builder doesn’t give two shits about affordable housing. A builder runs a business and focuses on high margin products. Bigger luxurious homes. There is no money in building affordable tiny shacks.

The COST of land, materials, labor and permit fees doesn’t allow builders to build affordable housing. Numbers don’t pencil out for them. It’s simple as that.
3227   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 2:11pm  

Want to get rich(er) the easy way? Simply own assets and then create shortages.
3228   AD   2023 Aug 25, 2:19pm  

GNL says

There is no limit to the amount of taxes they want.

The California budget deficit this year is forecasted at $34 billion. They are looking at increasing taxes just to cover their already excessive spending.


And California has debt ratings that are much worse than Florida, Texas and other major states. So I hope they are not going to have to raise taxes much to remain solvent enough to maintain (or improve) their current ratings.

https://www.treasurer.ca.gov/ratings/current.asp

.
3229   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 2:55pm  

GNL says

Want to get rich(er) the easy way? Simply own assets and then create shortages.

@GNL,

How many people have the ability to do this?
3230   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 3:15pm  

Eman says


GNL says


Want to get rich(er) the easy way? Simply own assets and then create shortages.

GNL,

How many people have the ability to do this?


It can't be done through regulations? Embargoes? How was the covid conspiracy able to be pulled off? If regs require houses be built to certain size or certain requirements just like you mentioned above...
3231   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 3:20pm  

GNL says

Eman says



GNL says



Want to get rich(er) the easy way? Simply own assets and then create shortages.

GNL,

How many people have the ability to do this?



It can't be done through regulations? Embargoes? How was the covid conspiracy able to be pulled off? If regs require houses be built to certain size or certain requirements just like you mentioned above...

Basically the oligarchs and their sphere of people. The folks on Patnet and everyone else are nothing. Either play by their rules and try to get ahead, or we can keep whining and bitching and be a W2 slave all our lives.
3232   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 3:24pm  

Eman says


Basically the oligarchs and their sphere of people. The folks on Patnet and everyone else are nothing. Either play by their rules and try to get ahead, or we can keep whining and bitching and be a W2 slave all our lives.

And hope the alligator eats you last. Over the last 5-6 years, just who do you think has gained more power and influence? How did they do it...by being quiet? If I remember correctly, they burned down cities, protested, stole elections etc. What they didn't do was act industrious.

Eman, what you simply do not seem to understand is that money is not the most important thing in the world.
3233   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 3:26pm  

Blue says

Big_Johnson says


“ And I am not sure why besides zoning reasons and developers not wanting (or economically unable) to build more affordable housing.”

A builder doesn’t give two shits about affordable housing. A builder runs a business and focuses on high margin products. Bigger luxurious homes. There is no money in building affordable tiny shacks.

The way I understand "affordable housing" of x% (typically 10-20%!) will be charged from the rest (100-x)% to offset x% plus some incentives from gov. It should not cost any to the builder though its a bit overhead in terms of overall project completion time which is negative as it leads to less profitable.

@Blue,

CA puts all kinds of red tapes and makes the cost of everything sooo expensive. Then they want builders to subsidize 20% of new build to low income housing, or pay a big fee for it, which makes the cost to build even higher. It’s high to the point that the builders have to be able to sell for a lot of money to be profitable, or they wouldn’t build at all.

CA has been having low income housing is due to all the issues mentioned above. Giving the state more money by repealing Prop 13 wouldn’t fix anything.
3234   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 3:30pm  

Eman says

CA puts all kinds of red tapes and makes the cost of everything sooo expensive. Then they want builders to subsidize 20% of new build to low income housing, or pay a big fee for it, which makes the cost to build even higher. It’s high to the point that the builders have to be able to sell for a lot of money to be profitable, or they wouldn’t build at all.

You can expect a hell of a lot more of this kind of thing. Didn't you just post something a day or 2 ago about down-payment give aways from the government? Are you in favor of that?
3235   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 3:32pm  

GNL says

Eman says



Basically the oligarchs and their sphere of people. The folks on Patnet and everyone else are nothing. Either play by their rules and try to get ahead, or we can keep whining and bitching and be a W2 slave all our lives.

And hope the alligator eats you last. Over the last 5-6 years, just who do you think has gained more power and influence? How did they do it...by being quiet? If I remember correctly, they burned down cities, protested, stole elections etc. What they didn't do was act industrious.

Eman, what you simply do not seem to understand is that money is not the most important thing in the world.

These are all conspiracy theories. I believe some, but not all. All I know is that there are tax codes to benefit investors, and there are tax codes to all the W2 folks. We have a choice of being self-employed, or W2. The chose the former and couldn’t be happier. All the other stuff, I have no control over so why worry about something I can’t control?

I know half of my siblings, nieces and nephews including my daughter, and half on my wife’s side are pure blood. We share info and let others decide what to do with it. We have no control over their decisions.
3236   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 3:35pm  

GNL says

Eman says


CA puts all kinds of red tapes and makes the cost of everything sooo expensive. Then they want builders to subsidize 20% of new build to low income housing, or pay a big fee for it, which makes the cost to build even higher. It’s high to the point that the builders have to be able to sell for a lot of money to be profitable, or they wouldn’t build at all.

You can expect a hell of a lot more of this kind of thing. Didn't you just post something a day or 2 ago about down-payment give aways from the government? Are you in favor of that?

I’m NOT in favor of it. I think it’s bad timing. This will get the poor folks in trouble even more. The intention is good, but the consequences will be bad, but I have no control over it. Why worry, or get worked up over something I can’t control?
3237   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 25, 3:36pm  

Onvacation says

Big_Johnson says


I gave up a long time ago to believe things for the avg joe will get better. They get worse every year instead.

Stolen elections have consequences.


preaching to the query
3238   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 3:40pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Onvacation says


Big_Johnson says



I gave up a long time ago to believe things for the avg joe will get better. They get worse every year instead.

Stolen elections have consequences.



preaching to the query

You meant this? 🤣


3239   Patrick   2023 Aug 25, 3:44pm  

Misc says


Do you think for an instant that by repealing Prop 13, the other taxes would decrease?


Woah, talk about missing the point.

The point is that Prop 13 is just a way for people that own land to sponge off of others, to be parasites.

All other taxes should go to ZERO and land value tax should go up to the point where there is no profit in simply owning land and letting it sit there unimproved.

The problem is getting people who think they can scam everyone else by owning land to see that everyone trying to scam everyone results in a worse economy for everyone. Landowning is completely non-productive. It does nothing to increase economic activity.

There's an Eastern European story about a small town dinner where everyone was supposed to bring some wine to pour into a barrel to be shared among all guests. Everyone brought water instead, assuming that others would pay their costs and no one would notice the slight dilution. It was discovered when guests went to drink, and realized that they ALL had tried to scam everyone else, lol.

Landowners opposed to land value taxes are exactly like that, hoping to skim wealth off of the productive work of others without doing anything for it at all.
3240   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 3:44pm  

You could spend your time doing something worthwhile. Something that benefits society. Heck, even the guilded age rich did more for society. And then thankfully they were broken up. Only to face it again.
3241   AD   2023 Aug 25, 4:13pm  

GNL says

You could spend your time doing something worthwhile. Something that benefits society.


I think Habitat For Humanity is one example of this. I'd like to see more of this to help bring affordable housing.

Another is volunteer time as a lawyer, dentist, doctor or even a tutor for math and science. Or volunteer to help fix cars owned by the lower working class.

.
3242   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 5:16pm  

ad says


GNL says


You could spend your time doing something worthwhile. Something that benefits society.


I think Habitat For Humanity is one example of this. I'd like to see more of this to help bring affordable housing.

Another is volunteer time as a lawyer, dentist, doctor or even a tutor for math and science. Or volunteer to help fix cars owned by the lower working class.

.


Even starting a business can be a big benefit to society. I own a business and am very proud of that. My business benefits me but only if I benefit many many people. The business I am in is one that makes it possible/feasible for an independent person to start and succeed in their own business. We are committed to eliminating the middle man in my industry. Possible? Probably not but, we shall ceaslessly continue on to our goal.

I find it interesting that the only people on Patnet that beat their chests are those in RE. Do Eman and Rubicon (I think he's changed his name again) really think they are the only multi millionaires on this forum?
3243   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 5:37pm  

Beating my chest? In what way? I stay in the circle of my competency and talk about what I know. I I stick to facts and don’t like to speculate.

People whine and bitch about Prop 13 and talk about affordable housing while they don’t know why builders couldn’t build affordable housing in CA. Then they claim builders are being greedy while they keep voting for the same clueless politicians, who are good at shifting the blames to others while not providing any solutions?
3244   GNL   2023 Aug 25, 7:22pm  

You're right Eman, I shouldn't have included you in that comment.
3245   Blue   2023 Aug 25, 7:29pm  

Eman says


People whine and bitch about Prop 13 and talk about affordable housing while they don’t know why builders couldn’t build affordable housing in CA. Then they claim builders are being greedy while they keep voting for the same clueless politicians, who are good at shifting the blames to others while not providing any solutions?

You are mixing so many unrelated topics into Prop 13 to confuse. Not sure if that is intentional to get fat tax subsidies at the expense of the rest.

Look at this interactive map: https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/
Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?
Does Atherton needs tax subsidy of average $35k/year where ultra rich live!
3246   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 25, 7:40pm  

prop 13 isn’t a problem, at least not in single family. i know many old people in ca, if prop 13 gone they’d be on the street. after paying all their life, on a street when they can no longer provide. that’s unimaginable cruelty. there’s a lot of wrong in america and CAlifornia, how its ran, corruption, selfishness, but it isn’t in prop 13. just look at policies that drive up rents, it’s nuts. and the more costs get added, the higher costs go. i’m of same opinion as eman on buying… rents will always catch up and surpass in a long run in CA.

nobody here has a solution, because there isn’t a simple one, every solution requires a lot of pain with no guarantee of results.
3247   AD   2023 Aug 25, 7:43pm  

Blue says

Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?


I guess that is why the sales tax is 7.25% in California (compared to 4% for Georgia) and the income tax would be very high for the owner of this mansion if they make a lot of money as a California full time resident.

The California sales tax and the income tax compensate for the low property tax ?

.
3248   Patrick   2023 Aug 25, 7:45pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


i know many old people in ca, if prop 13 gone they’d be on the street.


That was the excuse used to transfer cash from workers to rich landowners.

It would be very simple to add a means test to Prop 13, or just let the elderly defer the taxes until they die and the house is sold.

But they didn't do that. They made Prop 13 apply to billionaires and businesses as well, because the whole point is to cheat the rest of the public. But like I said, when everyone is trying to cheat everyone, then everyone loses.

“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
― Frédéric Bastiat
3249   RWSGFY   2023 Aug 25, 7:59pm  

Prop 13 was a tax revolt. "Conservatives" arguing for MOAR TAXES is a hilarious sight to behold.
3250   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Aug 25, 8:05pm  

patrick they should not have income tax and property tax at all. moment taxes exist, lots of hands go for the pot of gold. its why they never go down, only up. spending gets no cuts, so any tax cut at fed level gets into debt slavery financing bucket.

i wouldn’t trust this government with means test, im not black i’d get fucked by that in a heartbeat. i’m no longer in ca, but i remember it well.
3251   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Aug 25, 8:54pm  

ad says

I guess that is why the sales tax is 7.25% in California

7.25% is just the state part of the sales tax. The county and city add additional. It's common to see total sales tax of more than 9%.
3252   Patrick   2023 Aug 25, 8:56pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


patrick they should not have income tax and property tax at all.


@FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden The way to prosperity for everyone is:

1. no income tax at all
2. no sales tax at all
3. no tax on BUILDINGS
4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.
3253   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 9:48pm  

Blue says

Eman says



People whine and bitch about Prop 13 and talk about affordable housing while they don’t know why builders couldn’t build affordable housing in CA. Then they claim builders are being greedy while they keep voting for the same clueless politicians, who are good at shifting the blames to others while not providing any solutions?

You are mixing so many unrelated topics into Prop 13 to confuse. Not sure if that is intentional to get fat tax subsidies at the expense of the rest.

Look at this interactive map: https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/
Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?
Does Atherton needs tax subsidy of average $35k/year where ultra rich live!

@Blue,

Let’s offer some solutions here. Let’s say repeal Prop 13 now. Shouldn’t everything be reset to 1978 including sales tax, state income tax rate, no more rent control, reduce the city permit fees for new construction, etc… to 1978 prices? Wouldn’t this be a fair proposal?
3254   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 9:50pm  

Patrick says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says



patrick they should not have income tax and property tax at all.


FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden The way to prosperity for everyone is:

1. no income tax at all
2. no sales tax at all
3. no tax on BUILDINGS
4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.

You’re kidding right Patrick? Do you know how expensive is HongKong real estate market?
3255   Eman   2023 Aug 25, 9:52pm  

ad says

Blue says


Would you believe that this $9m mansion in ritzy Presidio Heights pays the same tax as a $300k starter home in Richmond?


I guess that is why the sales tax is 7.25% in California (compared to 4% for Georgia) and the income tax would be very high for the owner of this mansion if they make a lot of money as a California full time resident.

The California sales tax and the income tax compensate for the low property tax ?

.

Sales tax is 9.375% in San Jose. The property tax includes several thousand dollars in special assessments on top of the “claimed 1% or 1.25%”…
3256   AD   2023 Aug 25, 10:02pm  

Patrick says

4. the sole tax to be on land values

This is Georgism. Hong Kong partially implemented this and it works very well.


During feudalism in Europe, those who were rich and had control over the poor and working class were the landowners.

So this seems like a good idea as far as stopping the tyranny of landowners.

.
3257   Blue   2023 Aug 26, 2:23pm  

Eman says

Let’s offer some solutions here. Let’s say repeal Prop 13 now. Shouldn’t everything be reset to 1978 including sales tax, state income tax rate, no more rent control, reduce the city permit fees for new construction, etc… to 1978 prices? Wouldn’t this be a fair proposal?

Turning a regressive tax regime into a fair one:
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/reform

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