patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

"That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."

yes as housing starts dropped off from 2006 to 2009 ... there was never a large enough recovery in new housing since then

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Lower prices ????

Nothing that a few million more illegals can't solve. You can fit 3 families of illegals into a regular 3/2. Construction of new homes is where it was back in the 60s with a record number of migrants coming in. Those pods pictured above are much better than the cages they use to house people in Hong Kong. Why they are even climate controlled.

Wanna bet some H1B's are sleeping in shifts in those Pods trying to save some dough????

The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.

Misc says

Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation

Housing costs are a symptom of inflation. The cause is the overprinting of money.

GNL says

Does anyone have data on incomes? Have they been keeping up with inflation and housing?

Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.

NuttBoxer says

The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.

And there you go. You're doing the right thing. Cut ties and get more or make them want to keep you and they pay more. Most people are push overs and don't like change. Gotta do what's best for you. One life to live.

Misc says

The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.

Its going to take at least 3 years to let the air out of the bubble while household income catches up to housing prices. So home prices drop 15% over 3 years while income increases 3% annually. This can be done even if there is inventory is not high.
/

NuttBoxer says

Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.

Unless you have massive assets (which benefit from inflation) so that you can ride out the inflation rollercoaster, you're fucked. Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.

StillsearchingforagoodName says

Unless inventory goes up there is no way prices come down.

Very true. The housing crash and great recession of 2007-2011 caused the housing construction industry to collapse essentially.

I hope a lot of those AirBnBs at least get converted to long term rentals. That will help drive down housing costs and drive down inflation.

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stereotomy says

Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.

@stereotomy, What do you mean by this?

GNL says

stereotomy says

Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.

stereotomy, What do you mean by this?

Corporate land is promoting zoomers while freezing gen x out. Anyone past their 30's has a target on his back.

Found on Facebook:

CCCP_trollbot says

Home prices are positive yoy by 0.1%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-in-july-case-shiller-says-ab106b17

Epic crash. Not.

Yet?

Booger says

Found on Facebook:

RICO? Price fixing?

CCCP_trollbot says

GNL says

CCCP_trollbot says

Home prices are positive yoy by 0.1%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-in-july-case-shiller-says-ab106b17

Epic crash. Not.

Yet?

Lol. Perma bears have been moving the goal post since a decade now. No crash this year? Well here is a zerohedge article and surely prices will crash by x% by x date. It’s always soon or next year when this epic crash arrives. And before you know it another decade goes by and prices have doubled.

Are you saying housing never has and never will crash? That's not what you're saying is it because that's what it sounds like.

The thing about RE is it's backed by a fraudulent organization...the government. Well, and the federal reserve. RE people think they're genuises. It's kind of funny. If/when these organizations want RE to crash, it will crash. RE investors are rational actually but ignore the fact that they have the backing of fraudulent organizations. Small business, not so much. In fact small business is probably the most economically honest part of our country. Think about it.

I see you're ignoring another one of my questions.

This is a good article about economic metrics like the cost of a Whopper versus hourly wage for entry level worker as well as cost of housing versus household income.

A Whopper costs about 1/2 of what a fast food worker makes per hour in the Florida panhandle; I think it always has cost about 1/2 of what a fast food worker makes since the 1980s.

From what I've read, housing has gone up overall annual inflation rate + 0.5% since 1900. This is in line with Professor Robert Shiller who has stated housing has gone up about 4% a year historically. Zoning laws and building code likely account for a major part of housing cost inflation.

*
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/life-america-has-never-been-more-unaffordable-it-right-now

................

CCCP_trollbot says

Speaking of fast food workers. In CA they make $20 minimum wage now.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/09/28/california-increases-minimum-wage-protections-for-fast-food-workers/

Let’s go Newscum!

All for it, soon they'll make more than fresh MBA grads, whichI actually support, since fast food workers are more prodcutive than people graduating from woke schools. Can't make communism any worse than it already is, let's go newscum! The sooner he finishes CA the sooner we can bring this beautiful state back to its former glory.

mell says

CCCP_trollbot says

Speaking of fast food workers. In CA they make $20 minimum wage now.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/09/28/california-increases-minimum-wage-protections-for-fast-food-workers/

Let’s go Newscum!

All for it, soon they'll make more than fresh MBA grads, whichI actually support, since fast food workers are more prodcutive than people graduating from woke schools. Can't make communism any worse than it already is, let's go newscum! The sooner he finishes CA the sooner we can bring this beautiful state back to its former glory.

You sound unhappy about people making $20/hr. Why?

GNL says

mell says

CCCP_trollbot says

Speaking of fast food workers. In CA they make $20 minimum wage now.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/09/28/california-increases-minimum-wage-protections-for-fast-food-workers/

Let’s go Newscum!

All for it, soon they'll make more than fresh MBA grads, whichI actually support, since fast food workers are more prodcutive than people graduating from woke schools. Can't make communism any worse than it already is, let's go newscum! The sooner he finishes CA the sooner we can bring this beautiful state back to its former glory.

You sound unhappy about people making $20/hr. Why?

Any minimum wage laws are Communism and distort the market. That being said, I prefer people who actually add value to the economy. Today's MBA graduates typically don't. Most of todays university degrees are useless. The whole crony economy needs an overhaul, incl. the grifting and woke US schools. And on the long run those minimum wage workers will be replaced by robots anyways if they keep hiking.

CCCP_trollbot says

“ Can't make communism any worse than it already is, let's go newscum! The sooner he finishes CA the sooner we can bring this beautiful state back to its former glory.”

Just a matter of time to replace most fast food workers with self serving kiosks.



….and the leftists in CA keep voting for these politicians

True, it will likely go that way. Still most automated systems are still crap. I prefer human servers if possible, but there will is a point where they will become too expensive.

What was Logan Matahari's advice 6 months ago? 12 months ago?

https://twitter.com/HousingWire/status/1707849869761908916

GNL says

What was Logan Matahari's advice 6 months ago? 12 months ago?

https://twitter.com/HousingWire/status/1707849869761908916

Logan M is right. I've seen cuts to home prices like with Annabellas Townhomes and Hathaway Townhomes in Panama City Beach, FL. One just sold in Annabellas for $280,000 and back in late 2021 it could have easily sold for $320,000.

ad says

GNL says

What was Logan Matahari's advice 6 months ago? 12 months ago?

https://twitter.com/HousingWire/status/1707849869761908916

Logan M is right. I've seen cuts to home prices like with Annabellas Townhomes and Hathaway Townhomes in Panama City Beach, FL. One just sold in Annabellas for $280,000 and back in late 2021 it could have easily sold for $320,000.

But what was he saying 6-12 months ago?

Yeah, that won't put a dent in the market.

Ceffer says

Yeah, that won't put a dent in the market.

What borrowers care about is monthly payment. In you example, that would P&I of $1162 vs $2046.

this is from https://www.housingwire.com/housing-market/

which shows slight sellers market

,



.

GNL says

But what was he saying 6-12 months ago?

I checked https://www.housingwire.com/author/logan-mohtashami/

Read the May 18, 2023 article about unhealthy housing market due to low inventory.

Logan has also mentioned the Fed may be trying to force a recession without major unemployment. Seems like he is saying there is no major drop in price due to these factors like low inventory and low unemployment.

Also less motivation to move since a vast majority who have mortgages are paying rates less than 4% for 30 yr mortgages.

Look at labor participation for total population as it is back to 2013 to 2020 levels of around 63% : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Labor market is healthy as the participation rate peaked to around 67% in 1990 and also early 2000

Perhaps with more productivity such as robots and automation then it can remain healthy between 55% and 65%.

Now we have robots making robots : https://www.the-sun.com/tech/9214972/worlds-first-humanoid-robot-factory/

.

GNL says

Booger says

Found on Facebook:

RICO? Price fixing?

Naw, just desperation and piss poor decision making.

CCCP_trollbot says

buy in all cash and when rates come down pull money out.

And buy bitcoin?

CCCP_trollbot says

No current owner wants to lose their 3% rate.

True that, for the 60% whose homes have a mortgage on them.

GNL says

The thing about RE is it's backed by a fraudulent organization...the government. Well, and the federal reserve. RE people think they're genuises. It's kind of funny. If/when these organizations want RE to crash, it will crash. RE investors are rational actually but ignore the fact that they have the backing of fraudulent organizations. Small business, not so much. In fact small business is probably the most economically honest part of our country. Think about it.

By Sector, Real estate is the largest component of small businesses.

Misc says

GNL says

The thing about RE is it's backed by a fraudulent organization...the government. Well, and the federal reserve. RE people think they're genuises. It's kind of funny. If/when these organizations want RE to crash, it will crash. RE investors are rational actually but ignore the fact that they have the backing of fraudulent organizations. Small business, not so much. In fact small business is probably the most economically honest part of our country. Think about it.

By Sector, Real estate is the largest component of small businesses.

What % of small businesses own their own location/RE? This is a serious question. I don't know the answer.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/almost-irresponsible

Video in shadow inventory:
https://youtu.be/_emO4Dl8sUM?si=zROkKlM_X9ZYLVrj

This is the typical townhome in Panama City Beach, Florida and not within a 5 minute walk of the beach

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1734-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121152666_zpid/

Notice it was listed for $345k and now listed at $295k ... same townhome could have sold for a peak price of $330,000 around early 2022...

So prices are dropping if this is indicative of that ... as Logan Matahari said the housing market is unhealthy as far as high prices and low inventory ...

there is going to be more liquidity and transactions if prices fall at least 15% to 20% below peak price level (set around early 2022) ...

....

Booger says

Video in shadow inventory:
https://youtu.be/_emO4Dl8sUM?si=zROkKlM_X9ZYLVrj

at 15 minutes into video, so okay DR Horton is sitting on unsold and unoccupied housing ... how many units exist in Austin and and the rest of the USA ?

They just sitting on homes until mortgages rates get to the "magic spot" or "sweet spot" of around 5.5% ? That way they can buy down the rate 4 discount points, and its at a favorable 4.5% rate.

they just keeping their "powder dry" long enough until its a good time to sell this "shadow, unoccupied or hidden inventory" at the current desired price ?

.

ad says

at 15 minutes into video, so okay DR Horton is sitting on unsold and unoccupied housing ... how many units exist in Austin and and the rest of the USA ?

This is a hipster market. One of the extremely few areas that over built. That does not make a national market. Austin has been a shit hole for a decade plus anyway, not sure why anyone would choose to live there. If you want normal stats look at Montgomery, AL. Looking at CA or hipster cities is the worst possible metic to watch.

If you want a gauge on the market outside of coastal areas, look there. Otherwise you're blind. Middle income people in the middle of the country don't change all that much. Frankly because we're not idiots if I'm being honest. National markets are made up by dip shits on the coasts. Then scream all is bad. There needs to be some growing yup happening. It's not.

Booger says

Video in shadow inventory:
https://youtu.be/_emO4Dl8sUM?si=zROkKlM_X9ZYLVrj

This hidden or shadow inventory would at least show up as housing starts (i.e., foundation laid).

We were on a good pace recovering since the collapse of March 2009 but then housing starts collapsed again somewhat after April 2022 when interest rates started to rise :-(

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

We need a major uptick or increase in housing starts for housing that will be ready to be moved in within 6 months.

.

CCCP_trollbot says

Yeah, if you missed the boat in RE it’s of course manipulation and bad bad corporations. Talking to conspiracy theorists is like talking to religious fanatics. They have all the answers, know everything and it’s always someone else’s fault.

What would have happened in the government didn't bailout the the banks that sold collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) in 2007 and 2008? The banks would have gone bankrupt, and the housing market would have crashed.

But the ENTIRE NATION bailed out the BANKS, not the people who purchased homes they couldn't afford...

We don't have a free market system, we have fascist economic system.