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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   530,482 views  4,957 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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3797   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2023 Nov 10, 12:08pm  

HeadSet says

Sunnyvale seems to be right, you may want to check Prop 19.

Prop 19 does make a narrow exception for primary residences transferred only to your child, during your lifetime or after your death—but then your child must themselves live on the property as the owner.


If the house is in a living trust.they don't have to live there.
3798   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Nov 10, 2:31pm  

PumpingRedheads says

HeadSet says


Sunnyvale seems to be right, you may want to check Prop 19.

Prop 19 does make a narrow exception for primary residences transferred only to your child, during your lifetime or after your death—but then your child must themselves live on the property as the owner.


If the house is in a living trust.they don't have to live there.

Could you explain this "living trust" idea more completely? Does it let kids sell the house (before parent death) and somehow get the stepped up basis and avoid capital gains? Does it mean, after Prop 19 changes, that they can inherit the house and continue getting the Prop 13 tax assessment without having to live in the house?
3799   HeadSet   2023 Nov 10, 3:02pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

Does it mean, after Prop 19 changes, that they can inherit the house and continue getting the Prop 13 tax assessment without having to live in the house?

Quite the opposite. Prop 19 removed the former ability of a homeowner to pass Prop 13 tax advantages to the kids via a Living Trust, unless the kid actually lives in that property. You may be interested in this:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2020/12/07/prop-19-will-trust-protect-reassessment/
3800   B.A.C.A.H.   2023 Nov 11, 9:27am  

zzyzzx says

Should I rip the bandaid off and sell my condo?

The question about an Oakland Condo should not be a financial question.

It ought to be an existential question.

https://nypost.com/2023/10/28/opinion/oakland-calif-is-falling-apart/
3801   B.A.C.A.H.   2023 Nov 11, 9:33am  

HeadSet says

Quite the opposite. Prop 19 removed the former ability of a homeowner to pass Prop 13 tax advantages to the kids via a Living Trust, unless the kid actually lives in that property. You may be interested in this:

My little street in gentrifying section of formerly ghetto East SJ has 20 single family homes (sh*tboxes) about 50 years old.

One time when I was sitting in an office waiting for an appointment I looked everyone up on Z*llow for the most recent tax assessment and tax bill (2022). All these homes according to the website have market value north of $1 M.

The low assessment was $61,328 with tax bill $2,935. The high was $893,000 with tax bill $13,151.

Average assessment was $295k with average tax bill $5567; median $273k and $5146.

A Tale Of Two Cities.
3802   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2023 Nov 12, 1:48pm  

HeadSet says

ability of a homeowner to pass Prop 13 tax advantages to the kids via a Living Trust, unless the kid actually lives in that property. You may be interested in this:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2020/12/07/prop-19-will-trust-protect-reassessment/


When my grandmother died in 2017, her house that was already in a living trust passed to my father and uncle w/o change to property taxes. And they were not living there.
3803   HeadSet   2023 Nov 12, 2:44pm  

PumpingRedheads says

When my grandmother died in 2017, her house that was already in a living trust passed to my father and uncle w/o change to property taxes. And they were not living there.

Generous local assessor.
3804   RWSGFY   2023 Nov 12, 6:26pm  

PumpingRedheads says

HeadSet says


ability of a homeowner to pass Prop 13 tax advantages to the kids via a Living Trust, unless the kid actually lives in that property. You may be interested in this:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2020/12/07/prop-19-will-trust-protect-reassessment/


When my grandmother died in 2017, her house that was already in a living trust passed to my father and uncle w/o change to property taxes. And they were not living there.


Prop 19 passed in 2020.
3805   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2023 Nov 13, 1:09am  

RWSGFY says

Prop 19 passed in 2020.


So? They were made trustees, not beneficiaries anyway.
3806   RWSGFY   2023 Nov 13, 7:06am  

PumpingRedheads says


RWSGFY says


Prop 19 passed in 2020.


So? They were made trustees, not beneficiaries anyway.



So your example is irrelevant for post Prop-19 times.
3807   EBGuy   2023 Nov 13, 2:37pm  

At this point it may be good to review the main purpose of a revocable living trust -- which is to avoid probate. Full stop.
3808   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2023 Nov 13, 7:32pm  

RWSGFY says

So your example is irrelevant for post Prop-19 times.


Did you even read the fucking article?
3810   AD   2023 Nov 13, 9:51pm  

PumpingRedheads says






yep, also the general rule is for every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate requires a 10% drop in home price to maintain housing affordability

from what I've seen peak prices were set around April 2022 so the locked in 30 year mortgage rate was about 3.75%

.
3811   GNL   2023 Nov 13, 10:08pm  

I haven't seen any RE drop 40%-50% yet. In fact, I'm told it's rising in my area still.
3812   RWSGFY   2023 Nov 14, 7:06am  

PumpingRedheads says


RWSGFY says


So your example is irrelevant for post Prop-19 times.


Did you even read the fucking article?



Yes. I also red the fucking Prop 19. Your trust won't shield you. This is the one and only point I argue. Don't believe me - ask an attorney.
3813   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2023 Nov 14, 7:39pm  


Don't believe me - ask an attorney.


We already did. And in the context of this thread, she basically told us, "Don't listen to fucking morons on PatNet...in fact, TELL them they are fucking morons who need to get help..."
3814   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Nov 15, 3:13am  

RWSGFY says

Yes. I also red the fucking Prop 19. Your trust won't shield you. This is the one and only point I argue. Don't believe me - ask an attorney.

Yes, we're in agreement here. However, in 3794 above, you seemed to write something that implied differently.

One thing with Prop 19, though, is that kids need to legally take possession quickly in order to get the Prop 13 benefits. I've heard stories of kids slogging through the court system when parents didn't have a will or trust and missing the timing requirements.
3815   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Nov 15, 3:16am  

With Prop 19, kids officially have to live in the inherited house to get the Prop 13 benefits. I'm just wondering... how many kids actually wind up wanting to live in their parents' ancient house? I mean... parents die at age 80, kids are therefore 50. Kids have been out of the house having their own life for 30 years and they actually want to drop everything move back to their childhood home? Seems to me that you sell the place and enjoy the tax-free inheritance.
3816   Eric Holder   2023 Nov 15, 12:06pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

With Prop 19, kids officially have to live in the inherited house to get the Prop 13 benefits. I'm just wondering... how many kids actually wind up wanting to live in their parents' ancient house? I mean... parents die at age 80, kids are therefore 50. Kids have been out of the house having their own life for 30 years and they actually want to drop everything move back to their childhood home? Seems to me that you sell the place and enjoy the tax-free inheritance.


There is a type of kids who want to live in their parents' ancient house - the ones who never left it. =))
3818   Eric Holder   2023 Nov 15, 12:31pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.investopedia.com/30-year-mortgage-rates-shoot-back-up-returning-to-8-territory-8401542

30-Year Mortgage Rates Shoot Back Up, Returning to 8% Territory


Nooooooooooo!
3819   AD   2023 Nov 15, 12:51pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.investopedia.com/30-year-mortgage-rates-shoot-back-up-returning-to-8-territory-8401542

30-Year Mortgage Rates Shoot Back Up, Returning to 8% Territor


From what I recall, the 30 year mortgage rate usually is about 1.5% higher than the 10 Year Treasury.

And also I recall that most mortgages are paid off on average in 7 years since people will move on average about every 7 years.

The Fed should just let all those mortgage back securities (MBS) to be paid off and just sit back and not buy any new MBS for next 5 years as part of quantitative tightening (QT).

.
3821   zzyzzx   2023 Nov 17, 1:49pm  

Canadian prisoners asking to extend their prison sentences due to housing costs

https://boredbat.com/canadian-prisoners-asking-to-extend-their-prison-sentences-due-to-housing-costs/
3822   Onvacation   2023 Nov 18, 8:24am  

Prices WAY up in Rio Vista



The $240/month HOA is just adding insult to injury.
3823   Patrick   2023 Nov 18, 1:36pm  

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/everybodys-panic-mode-rich-la-homeowners-rent-mansions-150000-month-amid-turmoil


Los Angeles Mansion Owners Test $150,000 Rents as Sales Slump

Some owners are seeking to lease luxury properties instead of selling as a new mansion tax and entertainment industry turmoil loom over the market. ...
Ken H. Johnson, associate dean at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business, suggests a broader market trend. He notes that the cost of buying is currently about 8% higher than renting in the L.A. area, indicating a potential future decline in both rental and sale prices.

"As the owner of short-term rental, I think you’re going to get a supply shock in LA," he said. "A lot of people are cashing out of LA now and moving. You’re probably at a peak price."
3824   Misc   2023 Nov 18, 10:32pm  

ad says

zzyzzx says


https://www.investopedia.com/30-year-mortgage-rates-shoot-back-up-returning-to-8-territory-8401542

30-Year Mortgage Rates Shoot Back Up, Returning to 8% Territor


From what I recall, the 30 year mortgage rate usually is about 1.5% higher than the 10 Year Treasury.

And also I recall that most mortgages are paid off on average in 7 years since people will move on average about every 7 years.

The Fed should just let all those mortgage back securities (MBS) to be paid off and just sit back and not buy any new MBS for next 5 years as part of quantitative tightening (QT).

.


That's basically what the Fed is doing. Problem is that people aren't selling and paying off their mortgages at the rate the Fed forecast. That's why they are lagging on the QT wrt MBS. Already the Fed has stopped paying the Treasury interest from its bond holdings because they are paying about the same in interest as they are collecting. If they flat out sold some MBS, it would show up as losses for the Fed, and some knuckleheads would be calling for the Treasury to bail out the Fed.
3826   zzyzzx   2023 Nov 20, 11:30am  

Onvacation says

Prices WAY up in Rio Vista



The $240/month HOA is just adding insult to injury.


Isn't that cheap by California standards?
3827   Blue   2023 Nov 20, 3:10pm  

zzyzzx says

Isn't that cheap by California standards?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2085-Park-Pl-Rio-Vista-CA-94571/300242938_zpid/
$435,9002 bd 1,255 sqft
2085 Park Pl, Rio Vista, CA 94571
Price/sqft:$347
Lot:5,001 sqft (good size relative to what other builders are offering)
Estimated monthly cost$3,145
I doubt that it is cheap!
3828   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2023 Nov 20, 3:51pm  

Blue says

$3,145


Now it isn't $2,966 anymore.
3829   B.A.C.A.H.   2023 Nov 20, 6:35pm  

Blue says

$435,9002 bd 1,255 sqft
2085 Park Pl, Rio Vista, CA 94571
Price/sqft:$347
Lot:5,001 sqft (good size relative to what other builders are offering)
Estimated monthly cost$3,145
I doubt that it is cheap!

Hmmm, that's a small ownership premium compared to renting.

The ownership premiums here in SJ are insane, like 2x or more the cost of renting. With locked-in stratospheric property taxes.
3830   AD   2023 Nov 20, 7:27pm  

Blue says

zzyzzx says

Isn't that cheap by California standards?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2085-Park-Pl-Rio-Vista-CA-94571/300242938_zpid/
$435,9002 bd 1,255 sqft
2085 Park Pl, Rio Vista, CA 94571
Price/sqft:$347
Lot:5,001 sqft (good size relative to what other builders are offering)
Estimated monthly cost$3,145
I doubt that it is cheap!


Zillow says average rent for 3 bedroom home is $2700 in Rio Vista, California

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/rio-vista-ca/?bedrooms=3

.
3831   RedStar   2023 Nov 20, 7:31pm  

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?
3832   RWSGFY   2023 Nov 21, 8:46am  

RedStar says

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?


Farm workers?
3833   Misc   2023 Nov 21, 9:05am  

YoY existing home sales down 14.6%. The price only went up 3.4% YoY.
3834   Blue   2023 Nov 21, 9:12am  

RWSGFY says


RedStar says


But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?


Farm workers?


Long time ago, I remember, one of those gov agency warned to evacuate lot of low lying areas. But more people start moving in!
They must be ready for floods at some point unless they pay food insurance. I suspect there should be mosquito issues around.
3835   RWSGFY   2023 Nov 21, 10:35am  

Blue says


RWSGFY says


RedStar says


But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?


Farm workers?


Long time ago, I remember, one of those gov agency warned to evacuate lot of low lying areas. But more people start moving in!
They must be ready for floods at some point unless they pay food insurance. I suspect there should be mosquito issues around.



There is a whole town completely flooded out by the returning ancient Tulare lake. Lots of whining and gnashing of the teeth about that last spring.

Then there is this little gem:

Corcoran, one of the largest cities on the lake bed, has a population of around 22,000, but only five of its households participate in the National Flood Insurance Program. Furthermore, the Federal Emergency Management Agency hasn't updated federal flood maps to account for the past decade of subsidence, so many residents in flood zones may not even be aware of the risk they face.


I know, not exactly the location we're talking about, but same issues.
3836   B.A.C.A.H.   2023 Nov 21, 3:27pm  

RWSGFY says

RedStar says

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?

Farm workers?

Not all ag workers are field pickers. All the mechanical and management, etc infrastructure are in the region.

Remember the guest of The State of California, whose death sentence was changed to life? (ie, a lifetime guest), Scott Peterson? He was in fertilizer sales.

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