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housing prices peak 2
invite response
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 526,832 views 4,942 comments
by AD ➕follow (1) 💰tip ignore
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3479
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2023 Sep 25, 8:27pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
that won’t happen. what will happen is more gentrification and middle class will get fucked.
dude you got weird obsession with landlords. and you don’t even understand that business. ask Eman.
HeadSet says
landlords en mass will stop renting out and sell.
Good. Flood the market with homes for sale. Including, maybe, condo conversions.
that won’t happen. what will happen is more gentrification and middle class will get fucked.
dude you got weird obsession with landlords. and you don’t even understand that business. ask Eman.
3480
AD
2023 Sep 27, 1:09am
AD
2023 Sep 27, 1:09am
What is interesting is the rent to home price ratio.
Back in 2006 when we bought our brand new townhome for around $185,000 with a 30 yr mortgage rate of 3%. The same model was renting for $1500 (or $18,000 per year). So the annual rent to price ratio is 10.3.
Now they are renting for $2100, yet the prices are around $300,000 having peaked about $330,000 back in early 2022.
.
Back in 2006 when we bought our brand new townhome for around $185,000 with a 30 yr mortgage rate of 3%. The same model was renting for $1500 (or $18,000 per year). So the annual rent to price ratio is 10.3.
Now they are renting for $2100, yet the prices are around $300,000 having peaked about $330,000 back in early 2022.
.
3481
WookieMan
2023 Sep 27, 3:26am
WookieMan
2023 Sep 27, 3:26am
Schokolade says
This makes sense only IF you are going to stay thee for longer than the average homeowner does. ~7 years, probably longer now. But if you know for certain it will likely be 5 years or less I wouldn't buy. You're basically paying interest only and very little principle over 5 years. So you're reliant on appreciation to get out of the house/condo.
We're finally closing on our lot next week. We're building. We'll be there 20 years, so I don't care one bit about construction prices or house prices. We're building what we've wanted and have 3 boys that will be middle schoolers next year and our current house just isn't big enough. Not building a monster house either, 2,200 sf. I can now go 10 years without any major project or repair.
I used to mess around with a few stocks. I gave up. You either get lucky or it's at least a part time 20hr per week job/hobby doing research to pick individual stocks or use the other tools like shorting, etc. Same thing with house. Get in for the long term and if you want to mess around with investing in it understand it's at minimum a part time job if you still have a regular job.
Time is money any way you look at it.
I just visited Poland and learned most people there want to own and purchase as soon as they can.
This makes sense only IF you are going to stay thee for longer than the average homeowner does. ~7 years, probably longer now. But if you know for certain it will likely be 5 years or less I wouldn't buy. You're basically paying interest only and very little principle over 5 years. So you're reliant on appreciation to get out of the house/condo.
We're finally closing on our lot next week. We're building. We'll be there 20 years, so I don't care one bit about construction prices or house prices. We're building what we've wanted and have 3 boys that will be middle schoolers next year and our current house just isn't big enough. Not building a monster house either, 2,200 sf. I can now go 10 years without any major project or repair.
I used to mess around with a few stocks. I gave up. You either get lucky or it's at least a part time 20hr per week job/hobby doing research to pick individual stocks or use the other tools like shorting, etc. Same thing with house. Get in for the long term and if you want to mess around with investing in it understand it's at minimum a part time job if you still have a regular job.
Time is money any way you look at it.
3482
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 27, 8:06am
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 27, 8:06am
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/home-inventory-is-climbing-even-faster-than-this-time-a-year-ago/
Home inventory is climbing even faster than this time a year ago
There are now 528,000 single-family homes on the market, an increase of 1.8% from last week: Altos Research
Available inventory of homes for sale is on the rise in late September, which is very unusual for this time of year. In fact, inventory is growing faster than this time a year ago.
This is a demand-driven slowdown, because new listings supply is still running 9% to 10% fewer homes for sale each week than this time last year. We’re seeing fewer new sellers each week, but inventory is building as homebuyers wait to see if mortgage rates will come down to make purchases more affordable.
Fewer new sellers also means that inventory can’t grow too much; the real trouble develops when demand drops and supply surges. There’s no supply surge, but there is a notable demand drop. Consumers are very sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, and rates are still rising.
We can see these slowing changes build up each week. It’s a pretty sharp change from what was a surprisingly strong first half of the year. There are now 528,000 single-family homes on the market. That’s an increase of 1.8% from last week.
Normally by this point in September, available inventory is declining slightly each week. It’s late in the summer, so normally new listing volume drops as the last few sales of the peak summer months are concluding.
The fact that inventory grew by nearly 2% this week and last week is telling of how homebuyers are reacting to the highest mortgage rates in over two decades.
In this chart of each year’s inventory curves, you can see that the number of homes on the market is climbing faster now than this time last year. This year is the dark red curve, and last year the light red. Mortgage rates continue to climb, so there is no immediate relief for homebuyers on the horizon either.
At this point, it looks like we may see inventory grow to the end of October like we did last year. Look at the divergence in the curves from this year and the tan line from two years ago when we were still in the middle of the pandemic housing boom and record-low mortgage rates.
New pending sales each week continue to run 10% to 15% below last year’s pace. If you follow the National Association of Realtors when they publish their existing-home sales report each month, you know that the latest report for August showed a sales pace of only 4 million seasonally adjusted annual home sales.
We can already see in the NAR data that there are no signs of improvement for the sales count through September and October. The home sales that are in contract now will close mostly in October. It’s not hard to imagine that next month’s seasonally adjusted home sales data from NAR will come in under 4 million.
In this chart, each bar is the total number of home sales pending on any given week. The shorter the bar, the fewer sales that are in progress. The light portion of the bar is the count of new pendings each week.
There are now 344,000 single-family homes in contract to close in the next couple months. That’s 14% fewer than last year and almost 30% fewer than in September of 2021.
Home sales are limited by the decreased demand, of course, and they’re also limited by the very low supply of new listings. You can’t buy what’s not for sale.
We’ve been talking all year about the market being supply constrained. Right now, sales are limited by declining demand from still-climbing mortgage rates.
We can see the impact of weaker demand starting to creep into the pricing indicators. In the chart below, we look at the leading indicator of this trend: price reductions. This is the percent of homes on the market that have taken a price cut from their original list price.
For a while earlier this year, demand was exceeding supply in residential real estate, and you could measure that demand with the price-reductions curve improving each week. As mortgage rates lurched over 7% to their new highs, suddenly there are fewer offers.
And home-price reductions are climbing again, with 37% of the market taking a price cut. That’s more than any recent year except last year at this time. Price reductions are accelerating now, which bodes negatively for future sales prices.
A normal, balanced market will have 30% to 35% of the homes for sale that have reduced their asking price in recent months. As this dark red line approaches 40%, that’s a clear indicator that buyers are making fewer offers. Remember, the slope of this line captures how many properties are taking new price cuts each week. And this slope is increasing now.
These are transactions that will happen in the future, so it implies sales price weakness in the fourth quarter, which you’ll hear about in the headlines after the new year. But you can see it in the data now.
The median sales price of single-family homes in the U.S. right now is $440,000. That’s down 1% from last week and it’s just a tiny fraction higher than this time last year.
We can see the pressure on home prices in recent weeks. Home prices step downward in September for the seasonal change every year, and you can detect strength or weakness relative to changes in other years.
What we see now is that year-over-year price gains are just barely positive. And the comparison is getting weaker, not stronger, as our current mortgage markets deteriorate. There are fewer offers, and those that do happen are doing so at slight discounts each week.
Last year at this time, there were big price discounts being applied. So, our October comparisons may get slightly easier, but I sure haven’t seen any signals of price strength now.
So the question is will Q4 this year be a little better than Q4 2022? The median price of the new listings is fractionally higher than last year at $398,500. It will be fascinating to watch the light colored line here over the next couple weeks.
The new listings are where you see price weakness first. And last year, they were already headed lower.
The price of the new contracts this week came in at $370,000. These are the pending-home sales that went into contract in the last week. Prices of the homes going into contract are lower than last year by a fraction.
The next few weeks will be interesting to track this stat, too. Last year in mid-September is when mortgage rates jumped from 6% to 6.5% to 7.5%. By early October, any offers that were made for purchases came in at notably lower price points.
By September 2022, new pending-home sales prices fell by 3% per week. Will that happen again? Mortgage rates are even higher now than they were last year.
In this chart, you’ll notice the light-colored line started a big decline during this week in 2022. That’s when buyers reacted to newly increased mortgage rates. So, we’re watching to see where the new contracts come in over the next few weeks.
The macro trends impacting mortgage interest rates and the Fed have not given us any reprieve yet. The signals are that mortgage rates are still headed higher.
Consumer expectations for future mortgage rates have moved higher, too, so potential homebuyers are less optimistic than they were at the start of the year. And that’s what we’re seeing in the data each week now.
However, it’s important to point out that while buyer demand has backed off this fall, there is still no sign of any surge in new supply coming to the market. It can be very easy to focus on the negative momentum.
People on the fence should also know that while their competition is lessening, there’s no sign of an inventory flood. That may be an important factor in their home-buying decisions.
Home inventory is climbing even faster than this time a year ago
There are now 528,000 single-family homes on the market, an increase of 1.8% from last week: Altos Research
Available inventory of homes for sale is on the rise in late September, which is very unusual for this time of year. In fact, inventory is growing faster than this time a year ago.
This is a demand-driven slowdown, because new listings supply is still running 9% to 10% fewer homes for sale each week than this time last year. We’re seeing fewer new sellers each week, but inventory is building as homebuyers wait to see if mortgage rates will come down to make purchases more affordable.
Fewer new sellers also means that inventory can’t grow too much; the real trouble develops when demand drops and supply surges. There’s no supply surge, but there is a notable demand drop. Consumers are very sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, and rates are still rising.
We can see these slowing changes build up each week. It’s a pretty sharp change from what was a surprisingly strong first half of the year. There are now 528,000 single-family homes on the market. That’s an increase of 1.8% from last week.
Normally by this point in September, available inventory is declining slightly each week. It’s late in the summer, so normally new listing volume drops as the last few sales of the peak summer months are concluding.
The fact that inventory grew by nearly 2% this week and last week is telling of how homebuyers are reacting to the highest mortgage rates in over two decades.
In this chart of each year’s inventory curves, you can see that the number of homes on the market is climbing faster now than this time last year. This year is the dark red curve, and last year the light red. Mortgage rates continue to climb, so there is no immediate relief for homebuyers on the horizon either.
At this point, it looks like we may see inventory grow to the end of October like we did last year. Look at the divergence in the curves from this year and the tan line from two years ago when we were still in the middle of the pandemic housing boom and record-low mortgage rates.
New pending sales each week continue to run 10% to 15% below last year’s pace. If you follow the National Association of Realtors when they publish their existing-home sales report each month, you know that the latest report for August showed a sales pace of only 4 million seasonally adjusted annual home sales.
We can already see in the NAR data that there are no signs of improvement for the sales count through September and October. The home sales that are in contract now will close mostly in October. It’s not hard to imagine that next month’s seasonally adjusted home sales data from NAR will come in under 4 million.
In this chart, each bar is the total number of home sales pending on any given week. The shorter the bar, the fewer sales that are in progress. The light portion of the bar is the count of new pendings each week.
There are now 344,000 single-family homes in contract to close in the next couple months. That’s 14% fewer than last year and almost 30% fewer than in September of 2021.
Home sales are limited by the decreased demand, of course, and they’re also limited by the very low supply of new listings. You can’t buy what’s not for sale.
We’ve been talking all year about the market being supply constrained. Right now, sales are limited by declining demand from still-climbing mortgage rates.
We can see the impact of weaker demand starting to creep into the pricing indicators. In the chart below, we look at the leading indicator of this trend: price reductions. This is the percent of homes on the market that have taken a price cut from their original list price.
For a while earlier this year, demand was exceeding supply in residential real estate, and you could measure that demand with the price-reductions curve improving each week. As mortgage rates lurched over 7% to their new highs, suddenly there are fewer offers.
And home-price reductions are climbing again, with 37% of the market taking a price cut. That’s more than any recent year except last year at this time. Price reductions are accelerating now, which bodes negatively for future sales prices.
A normal, balanced market will have 30% to 35% of the homes for sale that have reduced their asking price in recent months. As this dark red line approaches 40%, that’s a clear indicator that buyers are making fewer offers. Remember, the slope of this line captures how many properties are taking new price cuts each week. And this slope is increasing now.
These are transactions that will happen in the future, so it implies sales price weakness in the fourth quarter, which you’ll hear about in the headlines after the new year. But you can see it in the data now.
The median sales price of single-family homes in the U.S. right now is $440,000. That’s down 1% from last week and it’s just a tiny fraction higher than this time last year.
We can see the pressure on home prices in recent weeks. Home prices step downward in September for the seasonal change every year, and you can detect strength or weakness relative to changes in other years.
What we see now is that year-over-year price gains are just barely positive. And the comparison is getting weaker, not stronger, as our current mortgage markets deteriorate. There are fewer offers, and those that do happen are doing so at slight discounts each week.
Last year at this time, there were big price discounts being applied. So, our October comparisons may get slightly easier, but I sure haven’t seen any signals of price strength now.
So the question is will Q4 this year be a little better than Q4 2022? The median price of the new listings is fractionally higher than last year at $398,500. It will be fascinating to watch the light colored line here over the next couple weeks.
The new listings are where you see price weakness first. And last year, they were already headed lower.
The price of the new contracts this week came in at $370,000. These are the pending-home sales that went into contract in the last week. Prices of the homes going into contract are lower than last year by a fraction.
The next few weeks will be interesting to track this stat, too. Last year in mid-September is when mortgage rates jumped from 6% to 6.5% to 7.5%. By early October, any offers that were made for purchases came in at notably lower price points.
By September 2022, new pending-home sales prices fell by 3% per week. Will that happen again? Mortgage rates are even higher now than they were last year.
In this chart, you’ll notice the light-colored line started a big decline during this week in 2022. That’s when buyers reacted to newly increased mortgage rates. So, we’re watching to see where the new contracts come in over the next few weeks.
The macro trends impacting mortgage interest rates and the Fed have not given us any reprieve yet. The signals are that mortgage rates are still headed higher.
Consumer expectations for future mortgage rates have moved higher, too, so potential homebuyers are less optimistic than they were at the start of the year. And that’s what we’re seeing in the data each week now.
However, it’s important to point out that while buyer demand has backed off this fall, there is still no sign of any surge in new supply coming to the market. It can be very easy to focus on the negative momentum.
People on the fence should also know that while their competition is lessening, there’s no sign of an inventory flood. That may be an important factor in their home-buying decisions.
3483
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 27, 9:20am
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 27, 9:20am
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/16t2uex/bought_a_house_last_yr_for_650k_and_it_now_only/
Bought a house last year for 650k and it now only worth 580k.
Bought a house last year for 650k and it now only worth 580k.
3484
GNL
2023 Sep 27, 10:13am
GNL
2023 Sep 27, 10:13am
A whole lot of bullshit is being peddled. Prices have never been higher. Wanna know what's happening? Third worldization.
3485
AD
2023 Sep 27, 11:57am
AD
2023 Sep 27, 11:57am
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/09/27/renting-cheaper-than-buying-a-house/70974358007/
interesting article link above... 3 metros cited as having low priced housing...pittsburgh, memphis and birmingham (alabama)
.
interesting article link above... 3 metros cited as having low priced housing...pittsburgh, memphis and birmingham (alabama)
.
3486
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:11pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:11pm
Schwarzwaelder says
About $61,000 is median household income and $75,000 is average household income
A friend of mine is assistant manager at small chain casual restaurant that serves sandwiches and makes about $18 an hour ... Buffalo Wild Wings was going to pay him $55,000 a year as assistant manager
I've seen local McDonalds on Front Beach Rd next to Walmart offer $15 an hour to start at entry level
Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month
.
ad says
What is interesting is the rent to home price ratio.
Back in 2006 when we bought our brand new townhome for around $185,000 with a 30 yr mortgage rate of 3%. The same model was renting for $1500 (or $18,000 per year). So the annual rent to price ratio is 10.3.
Now they are renting for $2100, yet the prices are around $300,000 having peaked about $330,000 back in early 2022.
What’s a good household income where you live? Not talking about median income.
About $61,000 is median household income and $75,000 is average household income
A friend of mine is assistant manager at small chain casual restaurant that serves sandwiches and makes about $18 an hour ... Buffalo Wild Wings was going to pay him $55,000 a year as assistant manager
I've seen local McDonalds on Front Beach Rd next to Walmart offer $15 an hour to start at entry level
Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month
.
3487
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:32pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:32pm
Schwarzwaelder says
The best city in the best part of the world ... Panama City Beach in the Florida panhandle
.
Thank you AD, and which city is this?
The best city in the best part of the world ... Panama City Beach in the Florida panhandle
.
3488
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:35pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:35pm
My concern is the rich have figured out how to make a lot of money buying rental property and making a lot of money by setting them up as boarding homes.
This is pushing out any working and middle class to buy a home.
.
This is pushing out any working and middle class to buy a home.
.
3490
GNL
2023 Sep 27, 12:38pm
GNL
2023 Sep 27, 12:38pm
The company did 2 teardowns today. 1 for a $1,000,000 and 1 for $1,850,000.
3491
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:54pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 12:54pm
ad says
They are making at least $12,000 profit a year (which is conservative based on hiring a rental manager and budgeting $175 a month for interior repair, maintenance and renovation). This is worst case scenario.
The values go up at least 3.5% a year. If they paid $300,000, then their annual ROI is $12k divided by $300k or 4%. So at minimum the total annual return is 7.5%.
.
Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month
They are making at least $12,000 profit a year (which is conservative based on hiring a rental manager and budgeting $175 a month for interior repair, maintenance and renovation). This is worst case scenario.
The values go up at least 3.5% a year. If they paid $300,000, then their annual ROI is $12k divided by $300k or 4%. So at minimum the total annual return is 7.5%.
.
3492
AD
2023 Sep 27, 2:06pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 2:06pm
I just talked with Jay at We Buy Homes with Cash. He is out of Miami Beach. He offered around $245,000 for our 3 bedroom townhome which would sell for around $300,000 now. I was just checking to see as that cash buyers are looking either for a cap rate of at least 9% or being able to flip the home within 6 month and make at least 10% profit.
3493
AD
2023 Sep 27, 3:42pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 3:42pm
I was following sales in other HOAs like this one.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/
Notice it listed for $290k but sold for $280k
Peak price during pandemic for this home could have been $320k
.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/
Notice it listed for $290k but sold for $280k
Peak price during pandemic for this home could have been $320k
.
3494
AD
2023 Sep 27, 5:55pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 5:55pm
StillsearchingforagoodName says
This HOA for the home in zillow listing above charges $425 a month but includes the insurance, trash, pool, fitness center, clubhouse, and landscaping.
I know someone who lives there and the internet is same as for my HOA which is Wow; we only pay $50 a month and cut the cord and watch free streaming like FreeVee, Pluto TV, Roku Channel, and Tubi.
They said the insurance there for there 3 bedroom townhome (about $300,000) is about $1400 a year as they are required to get HO-6 at least.
.
ad says
I was following sales in other HOAs like this one.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1700-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87629985_zpid/
Notice it listed for $290k but sold for $280k
Peak price during pandemic for this home could have been $320k
.
Hoas run about $100 per month and the property tax rate is about 1% of the purchase price? How much is homeowners insurance on avg for a 3B townhouse?
This HOA for the home in zillow listing above charges $425 a month but includes the insurance, trash, pool, fitness center, clubhouse, and landscaping.
I know someone who lives there and the internet is same as for my HOA which is Wow; we only pay $50 a month and cut the cord and watch free streaming like FreeVee, Pluto TV, Roku Channel, and Tubi.
They said the insurance there for there 3 bedroom townhome (about $300,000) is about $1400 a year as they are required to get HO-6 at least.
.
3495
AD
2023 Sep 27, 6:46pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 6:46pm
StillsearchingforagoodName says
about $135 a month for a $300,000 townhome
.
Thanks! And how much are property taxes?
about $135 a month for a $300,000 townhome
.
3496
AD
2023 Sep 27, 7:09pm
AD
2023 Sep 27, 7:09pm
StillsearchingforagoodName says
for our townhome we have about $153,000 left on the mortgage at 3% rate...they assume our mortgage and get a mortgage at 6% after buying down 4 discount points... their effective rate is 4.5% for a 30 year mortgage... that is a lot better than 7.125%
I read that some home builders are offering to buy down as much 2% to lower the rate from 7% to 5% for 30 year mortgage...
...
7.125% interest.
for our townhome we have about $153,000 left on the mortgage at 3% rate...they assume our mortgage and get a mortgage at 6% after buying down 4 discount points... their effective rate is 4.5% for a 30 year mortgage... that is a lot better than 7.125%
I read that some home builders are offering to buy down as much 2% to lower the rate from 7% to 5% for 30 year mortgage...
...
3497
NuttBoxer
2023 Sep 28, 9:00am
NuttBoxer
2023 Sep 28, 9:00am
Pending home sales plummet MoM:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/pending-home-sales-puked-august-lowest-record
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/pending-home-sales-puked-august-lowest-record
3498
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 28, 9:04am
zzyzzx
2023 Sep 28, 9:04am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuying-activity-is-falling-off-a-cliff-140011295.html
Homebuying activity is falling off a cliff
Pending home sales for August plunge 7.1% from the month before.
Homebuying activity is falling off a cliff
Pending home sales for August plunge 7.1% from the month before.
3499
WookieMan
2023 Sep 28, 9:25am
WookieMan
2023 Sep 28, 9:25am
Let us know when home sales plunge double digits in March-June. Until then this is all bear market scare tactics. The fall market is fluid and never consistent. 90% of the country doesn't want to move in the cold months, so yes, sales will fall. Even year over year. Next year they could be up 10% in September. This is the worst possible time to sell a house. Who wants to sell and move during the holidays? No one.
Whether one wants to believe it or not, people buy and sell based on the school schedule. So March-June you list and move during the summer when the kids are out or your work schedule is easier. When inventory jumps in those months I'll start to care. Right now I don't give a shit if it jumps 20%. It doesn't matter. People don't move right now unless it's forced or their testing the market for the spring (which is stupid).
No one can find a home in my area at all. We're talking months of trying. Anything on the market that hasn't sold is shit that people over priced. Anything decent sells in days still. Markets are different, but I'm not seeing any negatives here in expensive IL for what you get with property taxes and values.
Whether one wants to believe it or not, people buy and sell based on the school schedule. So March-June you list and move during the summer when the kids are out or your work schedule is easier. When inventory jumps in those months I'll start to care. Right now I don't give a shit if it jumps 20%. It doesn't matter. People don't move right now unless it's forced or their testing the market for the spring (which is stupid).
No one can find a home in my area at all. We're talking months of trying. Anything on the market that hasn't sold is shit that people over priced. Anything decent sells in days still. Markets are different, but I'm not seeing any negatives here in expensive IL for what you get with property taxes and values.
3501
RayAmerica
2023 Sep 28, 10:48am
RayAmerica
2023 Sep 28, 10:48am
Pending Home Sales Puked In August To The Lowest On Record
With existing home sales at their lowest since 2010 and new home sales finally hitting the wall, pending home sales were expected to decline MoM in August after an uptick in July (amid soaring mortgage rates and plunging affordability) and they did...bigly.
Pending home sales plunged 7.1% MoM in August (dramatically worse than the -1.0% expected) dragging sales down 18.8% YoY...
If your delusion needs re-enforcement, never fear, the Realtors' Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is always here to help:
“Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“It’s clear that increased housing inventory and better interest rates are essential to revive the housing market.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/pending-home-sales-puked-august-lowest-record
With existing home sales at their lowest since 2010 and new home sales finally hitting the wall, pending home sales were expected to decline MoM in August after an uptick in July (amid soaring mortgage rates and plunging affordability) and they did...bigly.
Pending home sales plunged 7.1% MoM in August (dramatically worse than the -1.0% expected) dragging sales down 18.8% YoY...
If your delusion needs re-enforcement, never fear, the Realtors' Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is always here to help:
“Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“It’s clear that increased housing inventory and better interest rates are essential to revive the housing market.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/pending-home-sales-puked-august-lowest-record
3502
GNL
2023 Sep 28, 1:30pm
GNL
2023 Sep 28, 1:30pm
Does anyone have data on incomes? Have they been keeping up with inflation and housing?
3503
EBGuy
2023 Sep 28, 4:18pm
ad says
Amateurs!
Startup founders are paying $700 a month to stay in bed “pods” — tiny, semi-open boxes that only fit a single twin mattress and stand just 4 feet tall — according to media reports this week. The pods, made of steel and wood with a blackout curtain at one end, are arranged in a two-high, 14-long grid; residents share five bathrooms and a few common spaces, but don’t have a full kitchen or any laundry machines.
Techies are paying $700 a month for tiny bed 'pods' in downtown San Francisco
Investors buying with cash these 3 bedroom townhomes and essentially renting out each bedroom for $700 a month
Amateurs!
Startup founders are paying $700 a month to stay in bed “pods” — tiny, semi-open boxes that only fit a single twin mattress and stand just 4 feet tall — according to media reports this week. The pods, made of steel and wood with a blackout curtain at one end, are arranged in a two-high, 14-long grid; residents share five bathrooms and a few common spaces, but don’t have a full kitchen or any laundry machines.
Techies are paying $700 a month for tiny bed 'pods' in downtown San Francisco
3504
AD
2023 Sep 28, 7:03pm
AD
2023 Sep 28, 7:03pm
The typical American cannot afford to buy a home in a growing number of communities across the nation, according to common lending standards.
That's the main takeaway from a new report from real estate data provider ATTOM. Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM..
Housing experts point to couple trends driving up housing costs. Mortgage rates have topped 7%, adding hundreds of dollars per month to a potential house payment. At the same time, homeowners who locked in at lower mortgage rates during the pandemic have opted not to sell out of fear of having to buy another property at today's elevated rates, depleting the supply of homes for sale.
"The only people who are selling right now are people who really need to move because of a life event — divorce, marriage, new baby, new job, etc.," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, told CBS MoneyWatch. "That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housing-prices/
.
That's the main takeaway from a new report from real estate data provider ATTOM. Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM..
Housing experts point to couple trends driving up housing costs. Mortgage rates have topped 7%, adding hundreds of dollars per month to a potential house payment. At the same time, homeowners who locked in at lower mortgage rates during the pandemic have opted not to sell out of fear of having to buy another property at today's elevated rates, depleting the supply of homes for sale.
"The only people who are selling right now are people who really need to move because of a life event — divorce, marriage, new baby, new job, etc.," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, told CBS MoneyWatch. "That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housing-prices/
.
3505
AmericanKulak
2023 Sep 28, 7:20pm
AmericanKulak
2023 Sep 28, 7:20pm
ad says
And those life-event reactions cannot be postponed indefinitely...
"The only people who are selling right now are people who really need to move because of a life event — divorce, marriage, new baby, new job, etc.," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, told CBS MoneyWatch. "That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."
And those life-event reactions cannot be postponed indefinitely...
3506
AD
2023 Sep 28, 8:29pm
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2023 Sep 28, 8:29pm
AmericanKulak says
yes as housing starts dropped off from 2006 to 2009 ... there was never a large enough recovery in new housing since then
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
"That lack of new inventory is keeping prices high."
yes as housing starts dropped off from 2006 to 2009 ... there was never a large enough recovery in new housing since then
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
3507
Misc
2023 Sep 28, 8:39pm
Lower prices ????
Nothing that a few million more illegals can't solve. You can fit 3 families of illegals into a regular 3/2. Construction of new homes is where it was back in the 60s with a record number of migrants coming in. Those pods pictured above are much better than the cages they use to house people in Hong Kong. Why they are even climate controlled.
Wanna bet some H1B's are sleeping in shifts in those Pods trying to save some dough????
The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.
Nothing that a few million more illegals can't solve. You can fit 3 families of illegals into a regular 3/2. Construction of new homes is where it was back in the 60s with a record number of migrants coming in. Those pods pictured above are much better than the cages they use to house people in Hong Kong. Why they are even climate controlled.
Wanna bet some H1B's are sleeping in shifts in those Pods trying to save some dough????
The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.
3508
HeadSet
2023 Sep 29, 6:38am
HeadSet
2023 Sep 29, 6:38am
Misc says
Housing costs are a symptom of inflation. The cause is the overprinting of money.
Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation
Housing costs are a symptom of inflation. The cause is the overprinting of money.
3509
NuttBoxer
2023 Sep 29, 8:01am
NuttBoxer
2023 Sep 29, 8:01am
GNL says
Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.
Does anyone have data on incomes? Have they been keeping up with inflation and housing?
Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.
3510
WookieMan
2023 Sep 29, 8:35am
WookieMan
2023 Sep 29, 8:35am
NuttBoxer says
And there you go. You're doing the right thing. Cut ties and get more or make them want to keep you and they pay more. Most people are push overs and don't like change. Gotta do what's best for you. One life to live.
The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.
And there you go. You're doing the right thing. Cut ties and get more or make them want to keep you and they pay more. Most people are push overs and don't like change. Gotta do what's best for you. One life to live.
3511
AD
2023 Sep 29, 10:19am
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2023 Sep 29, 10:19am
Misc says
Its going to take at least 3 years to let the air out of the bubble while household income catches up to housing prices. So home prices drop 15% over 3 years while income increases 3% annually. This can be done even if there is inventory is not high.
/
The Fed backed itself into a corner. Housing costs are the #1 factor in inflation, however builders can't sell houses with interest rates this high. With the continued increase in migration exceeding the new building of housing units it just drives rents upwards, hence adding to inflation.
Its going to take at least 3 years to let the air out of the bubble while household income catches up to housing prices. So home prices drop 15% over 3 years while income increases 3% annually. This can be done even if there is inventory is not high.
/
3512
stereotomy
2023 Sep 29, 11:40am
stereotomy
2023 Sep 29, 11:40am
NuttBoxer says
Unless you have massive assets (which benefit from inflation) so that you can ride out the inflation rollercoaster, you're fucked. Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.
Engineer at my last company only got 3%. You think that matches inflation for 2022? I can tell you for a fact the blue collar workers I know are not keeping up. But then isn't that what got Trump into office in 2016? The only way I keep up is every time I take a new job I get more money.
Unless you have massive assets (which benefit from inflation) so that you can ride out the inflation rollercoaster, you're fucked. Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.
3513
AD
2023 Sep 29, 12:32pm
AD
2023 Sep 29, 12:32pm
StillsearchingforagoodName says
Very true. The housing crash and great recession of 2007-2011 caused the housing construction industry to collapse essentially.
I hope a lot of those AirBnBs at least get converted to long term rentals. That will help drive down housing costs and drive down inflation.
.
Unless inventory goes up there is no way prices come down.
Very true. The housing crash and great recession of 2007-2011 caused the housing construction industry to collapse essentially.
I hope a lot of those AirBnBs at least get converted to long term rentals. That will help drive down housing costs and drive down inflation.
.
3514
GNL
2023 Sep 29, 5:17pm
GNL
2023 Sep 29, 5:17pm
stereotomy says
@stereotomy, What do you mean by this?
Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.
@stereotomy, What do you mean by this?
3515
stereotomy
2023 Sep 30, 5:28am
stereotomy
2023 Sep 30, 5:28am
GNL says
Corporate land is promoting zoomers while freezing gen x out. Anyone past their 30's has a target on his back.
stereotomy says
Corporate America is using inflation to churn demographics from 40-50's X'ers to 20-something Zoomers.
stereotomy, What do you mean by this?
Corporate land is promoting zoomers while freezing gen x out. Anyone past their 30's has a target on his back.
3517
GNL
2023 Sep 30, 8:37am
GNL
2023 Sep 30, 8:37am
CCCP_trollbot says
Yet?
Home prices are positive yoy by 0.1%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-in-july-case-shiller-says-ab106b17
Epic crash. Not.
Yet?
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.