patrick.net

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REpro says

San Jose's issues are more concentrated due to the scarce land, higher costs of labor and "bureaucratic roadblocks," Adrian Pedraza, a real estate broker who owns house flipping company The California Homebuyer, said.

I read the Newsom passed some reforms as far as encouraging affordable housing: https://www.novoco.com/news/california-governor-signs-series-affordable-housing-related-bills

As far as labor, the construction industries needs to innovate and gain more productivity such as using 3D printing technology, etc.

How about constructing pre-fab homes in cheaper zip codes and then sent the pre-fab home kits to California via trucks and/or rail ?

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3D printing is great, you still need electricians, plumbers and installers for floors, cabinets and what not. Almost viable...
https://www.iconbuild.com/projects/community-first-village

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interesting as it does seem like rent is cooling down in Panama City Beach ... I noticed apartments are offering 1 month free ( https://www.urbanbluliving.com/ )

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407/

also, Colorado Springs has cooled off

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/colorado-springs-co/

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How about constructing pre-fab homes in cheaper zip codes and then sent the pre-fab home kits to California via trucks and/or rail ?

San Francisco, trade unions at odds over modular construction — even for homeless projects

Modular housing could be an answer
Factory OS uses unionized workers, but through an agreement with the carpenters’ union, workers perform a variety of tasks on the housing assembly line, rather than having the work divvied up among specialists, and the company employs many former prison inmates.
Politically influential construction trades unions are pushing San Francisco’s city officials to make 833 Bryant St. a one-time event rather than the beginning of a trend.
Larry Mazzola Jr., president of the San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council, is sending a letter to Mayor London Breed and city supervisors criticizing the project’s “mistakes and over-costs.”

Supportive housing for 39 formerly homeless residents breaks ground on University Avenue
The project was initially supposed to be wholly constructed of prefabricated all-steel modular units like another of Kennedy’s buildings on Shattuck Avenue, but after 18 months working with a construction firm — the quoted price doubled, Kennedy said, partially due to the pandemic and supply chain issues. Ultimately, he said the company “couldn’t pull it together” on quality.
Developers shifted to Pleasanton-based Hawk Development, and the building will now have prefabricated components, but it will no longer be fully modular. Kennedy said the delays pushed up the cost of the project by about $2 million.
But because it’s still partially modular, the project will still cost below the per-unit average for building housing in the Bay Area. Each unit is expected to cost about $400,000, according to city officials. It will cost about $2 million annually to operate once it’s open, split between funding from Berkeley’s Measure P and Alameda County. Kaiser Permanente put about $500,000 toward the project.

EBGuy says

San Francisco, trade unions at odds over modular construction — even for homeless projects

thats a good article EB

i was thinking how a tiny home (i.e., ~120 sq foot) could be built on a trailer frame and used for basic shelter ...

...

No municipality wants "cheap" housing. Property tax money is what they want. Higher value = higher tax. Maybe?

GNL says

No municipality wants "cheap" housing. Property tax money is what they want. Higher value = higher tax. Maybe?

yes and that is what is happening in LA (lower alabama) also known as Florida panhandle

they are building what they call "affordable housing" but it is marketed as "luxury apartments" like Urban Blu in Panama City Beach

the new housings being built by St Joe are crap shacks priced at least $450,000 where the average hourly rate is around $17 + tips for an assistant general manager at a Chicken Salad Chick restaurant

but I agree as they want the tax base so they want the income stream from property taxes

so what gives as far as the working class being near the jobs from restaurants to assisted living and nursing homes ?

what I am seeing is 3 bedroom townhomes in Panama City Beach being rented for $2100 a month by 3 restaurant service workers each making about $500 a week

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GNL says

No municipality wants "cheap" housing. Property tax money is what they want. Higher value = higher tax. Maybe?

In CA, property tax revenues go to the State and school districts. Cities can levy limited parcel taxes and sales taxes. So historically, they built 'Taj Mahal' super malls. But those are toast now.

The prefab thing is dead on arrival in almost every location besides rural locations is the problem. If you know transportation at all, modular is super cheap to build off site, quicker.... but it's a fortune to transport IF you can get it to your location. You have to build for bridges and power lines when moving them. A low pitched roof is required and by default it then looks like a trailer.

So they just do two sections and plop it down. My dad did two of them out on some wooded land in Northern IL. Worked here, but never, never would be acceptable in an urban/suburban area or town. It's not about property values. It's a classic case of NIMBYism and people being hypocritical as fuck, not government. People don't want those types of houses in their neighborhoods. AND the logistics on top of it.

We tried for about 2 years when I was in Chicago with my former employer. Tried really hard. It can be done in Chicago, but the gains from lower cost building off site are destroyed by getting it to the site. You have to do 6-10 modules that can fit under the bridges and power lines or pay $$$$$ to have a power line dropped near the destination. It wasn't cheaper and it wasn't "green." Plus you still have excavation, concrete and a lot of interior finishing still.

And yes, people have done some cool ones in Chicago. They were more expensive than stick built on site. Chicago was a nightmare of trying to figure out inspections and getting them into the city from Indiana. We then looked into a warehouse in Chicago proper and again the costs skyrocketed on the build and you STILL are dealing with transport issues and then local politics of hiring people of color. Wasn't worth the hassle or cost to sell something that wouldn't have a profit margin. Hence why we have trailer parks, so the houses all look the same.

If cheaper/affordable housing was a goal, it would happen. It isn't the goal.

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i was thinking how a tiny home (i.e., ~120 sq foot) could be built on a trailer frame and used for basic shelter ...

Yep, we got those too...
New dorms built in Oakland for youth facing housing insecurity

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https://fortune.com/2023/10/30/housing-market-recession-1980s-higher-for-longer-mortgage-rates-outlook-wells-fargo/

Despite countless recession calls from economists, analysts, and other experts this year and last, the U.S. economy as a whole has shown remarkable resiliency. The housing market, on the other hand, is a different story.

Mortgage rates hovering around 8% coupled with home prices that rose substantially during the pandemic have deteriorated housing affordability in the U.S. and frozen activity in some cases. The longer mortgage rates remain elevated, the higher borrowing costs become, and that could tip the housing market into a recession, according to Wells Fargo.

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.

interesting as it does seem like rent is cooling down in Panama City Beach ... I noticed apartments are offering 1 month free ( https://www.urbanbluliving.com/ )

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407/

also, Colorado Springs has cooled off

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/colorado-springs-co/

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@ad San Diego

Most recent Case/Shiller...housing prices up again by .1% MoM.
Maybe they'll go down at 9%.

Today’s housing market is the least affordable and least accessible it’s been in decades as mortgage rates reached 8% this fall and home prices continue to rise. Yet, every day homes are still sold as new buyers shell out tens of thousands of dollars for a down payment and lock into historically high mortgage payments. So just how bad is affordability? Zillow crunched some numbers and says it will take you a remarkably long time to break even if you buy a house under these market conditions.

Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

https://fortune.com/2023/11/01/how-bad-housing-market-affordability-zillow-says-13-year-breakeven/

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Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

What does "break even" mean?

HeadSet says

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Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

What does "break even" mean?

I assume it means selling at a high enough price that covers all years of maintenance + transaction fees without bringing $$ to closing.

GNL says

HeadSet says

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Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward

What does "break even" mean?

I assume it means selling at a high enough price that covers all years of maintenance + transaction fees without bringing $$ to closing.

Yeah, likely to cover the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. I view it as positive equity or book value. This would align with the use of the rent vs buy calculator.

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ad says

Yeah, likely to cover the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. I view it as positive equity or book value. This would align with the use of the rent vs buy calculator.

Yes, I guess that would include interest paid also. Which I'd bet almost no one takes into consideration.

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https://fortune.com/2023/10/30/housing-market-recession-1980s-higher-for-longer-mortgage-rates-outlook-wells-fargo/

Despite countless recession calls from economists, analysts, and other experts this year and last, the U.S. economy as a whole has shown remarkable resiliency. The housing market, on the other hand, is a different story.

Mortgage rates hovering around 8% coupled with home prices that rose substantially during the pandemic have deteriorated housing affordability in the U.S. and frozen activity in some cases. The longer mortgage rates remain elevated, the higher borrowing costs become, and that could tip the housing market into a recession, according to Wells Fargo.

There are too many people with high paying jobs who will always keep prices elevated in desireable areas with top public schools. Unless we have a job-loss recession, desireable areas won't drop much IMO. Areas with mediocre or bad schools? All bets are off.

GNL says

ad says

Yeah, likely to cover the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. I view it as positive equity or book value. This would align with the use of the rent vs buy calculator.

Yes, I guess that would include interest paid also. Which I'd bet almost no one takes into consideration.

Yes I would categorize the interest payments are carrying costs or operating costs.

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porkchopXpress says

There are too many people with high paying jobs who will always keep prices elevated in desireable areas with top public schools.

Yeah, like Ilene Mischeloff's parents did.

https://nypost.com/2023/11/02/business/hamptons-middle-class-homes-priced-below-5m-slammed-in-selling-frenzy/

Hamptons ‘middle class’ homes priced below $5M slammed in selling frenzy

The so-called “middle class” in the Hamptons – New Yorkers with second homes in the in the $2 million to $5 million range – are frantically slashing prices to offload their properties, real estate sources said.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/buyers-are-backing-out-of-home-purchases-at-an-incredibly-high-rate

Buyers Are Backing out of Home Purchases at an Incredibly High Rate

zzyzzx says

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/buyers-are-backing-out-of-home-purchases-at-an-incredibly-high-rate

Buyers Are Backing out of Home Purchases at an Incredibly High Rate

That is a lie!

Because if true, then the Housing Experts of PatNet were full of shit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/florida/comments/17lejjw/my_monthly_hoa_fee_was_increased_by_240_since_i/

My monthly HOA fee was increased by 240% since I moved in. Can someone help me understand why?

zzyzzx says

My monthly HOA fee was increased by 240% since I moved in. Can someone help me understand why?

Because this person is a retard?

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/florida/comments/17lejjw/my_monthly_hoa_fee_was_increased_by_240_since_i/

My monthly HOA fee was increased by 240% since I moved in. Can someone help me understand why?

yep, its is about total ownership cost (TOC) or life cycle cost ...

principal + interest + property tax + property insurance + hoa fee + owner maintenance&repair

its tough in florida cause not only is insurance increasing, but labor costs (at a relatively higher rate than national rate) such as for landscaping, pool service, HOA community management, etc

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PumpingRedheads says

Because this person is a retard?

Pretty much. They either are totally oblivious to inflation / insurance / maintenance costs / reserve requirements, as in they have failed in being an adult.

That, and I'd have to think that any condo complex that's full of old people isn't going to want to properly fund their reserves anyway since over a certain age long term planning doesn't exist.

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https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11032023

Rates for 30 year mortgage recently peaked to 23 year high of 8% ...now sitting at 7.5%

I would not be surprised if the 30 year mortgage rate steadies between 5 and 6% by next spring

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https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11032023

Rates for 30 year mortgage recently peaked to 23 year high of 8% ...now sitting at 7.5%

I would not be surprised if the 30 year mortgage rate steadies between 5 and 6% by next spring

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they won’t lend you at 6 and risk when treasuries give that without the risk.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

ad says

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https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11032023

Rates for 30 year mortgage recently peaked to 23 year high of 8% ...now sitting at 7.5%

I would not be surprised if the 30 year mortgage rate steadies between 5 and 6% by next spring

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they won’t lend you at 6 and risk when treasuries give that without the risk.

I understand as far as risk premium, or risk vs reward or payoff.

The 10 Yr Treasury tends to track the 30 year mortgage rate. Also mortgages typically only last about every 8 years as people move and pay off their mortgages.

The 10 Year Treasury is at 4.5% so a 6% mortgage rate is offering a 1.5% risk premium.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

When we got our 3% mortgage rate with the Veteran Affairs (VA) in August 2016, the 10 Year Treasury was around 1.6%.

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One of the houses in my neighborhood ( a twin of ours) just sold for a record high price. One has to wonder what exactly is going on, but the ones coming on market recently are snapped up right away now after a 9 month lax period when they languished and prices dropped.

It doesn't make any sense.

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Housing stays flat while median income grows at least 2% annually greater than housing for the next 5 years.

If what I heard on rumble.com yesterday is true UAW union won big time this past week and will now be making $89/hr which is about 185K/year. That's without overtime.

Okay, I can't find anything like that at all in the news, maybe he's mistaken and it's 89K/year, I do see some asked for that: https://rumble.com/v3svpqs-big-win-for-striking-auto-workers.html

Yeah, it's $42/hour which works out to 89K/year: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/30/gm-uaw-tentative-agreement-labor-strike.html

Jimmy has his comment section in an uproar.

https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-interest-rate-mortgage-new-construction-house-homebuilder-2023-11

it's possible to get a 4.8% mortgage today — here's how

High mortgage rates have deterred many would-be homebuyers from purchasing a property over the last year.

In September, according to the National Association of Realtors, the sales of existing homes in the US declined 15.4% from a year ago — a sign that buyers are continuing to balk at the high cost of homeownership.

But here may be a glimmer of hope: People may have more luck securing a lower mortgage rate if they buy a new-construction home. Mortgage industry veteran Tawn Kelley, the president of financial services at homebuilder Taylor Morrison, told Insider's Alex Nicoll that it's possible to secure a rate as low as 4.8% when buying a new home.

The typical rate right now is above 7%, according to Freddie Mac.

Kelley's tips include seriously considering taking out a mortgage with the builder of the new home and asking for every possible incentive.

Many builders can provide lower interest rates or financing assistance, she said. While that may sound too good to be true, Kelley advises buyers not to automatically dismiss their homebuilder's mortgage offerings as a marketing ploy.

At the end of the day, she added, builders just want to sell more houses. That's how they make the most profit. If offering a favorable mortgage helps them do that, don't second-guess the motivation.

"Finance sells homes, and a house doesn't become a home unless we have the ability to get that customer to the closing table, and they can qualify and confidently make their mortgage payments," Kelley said.

Kelley also suggested that buyers negotiate with builders for every available incentive, as they could add up to substantial savings. Builder incentives include rate buydowns, mortgage rate locks, and forward commitments. (Read more about these incentives and how to get them in Nicoll's story.)

Taylor Morrison has been able to help customers lower their rates from around 8% to 4.875%, Kelley said, reducing the total monthly payment by a third.

However, she warned that some financial incentives can increase over the course of the loan, including temporary rate buydowns.

Failing to budget or plan accordingly could put homebuyers at risk of experiencing problems that cropped up during the 2008 housing crisis, when many people who took out adjustable-rate mortgages failed to account for their monthly costs increasing as interest rates rose.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/17ns662/how_are_your_higher_end_listings_preforming_in/

How are your higher end listings preforming in this market?

I have a handful of $700k-$900k (Close to luxury in my area) listings that have had 0 showings in the last 40 days, even with 5-10% price reductions and 2/1 buydown offers. Recent comps even justify a higher price, but its just been a dead stop.

I know this question is likely to be area specific. But in your experience, how is the Luxury market in your area, what are you doing to land showings/exposure with the higher rates bogging everything down? How have your new higher priced listings preformed? How did they sell?

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/17ni3pg/should_i_rip_the_bandaid_off_and_sell_my_condo/

Should I rip the bandaid off and sell my condo?

I bought my condo in 2019 in Oakland for $405,000.

I lived in it for four years but decided to rent a place with my girlfriend.

I owe roughly $367,000. My payment is $3,400. The breakdown is $2,900 mortgage (taxes and insurance included) and $500 HOA. ~$670 goes to principal and $370 to PMI.

I tried to sell it from June-September for $390,000 (eventually lowered price) and got no offers. Condo prices dropped. My real estate agent and comps said it would be valued ~$350,000 leaving me with a large out of pocket sell price (which I can afford)

Since October I have been renting it out for $2,100. My gut tells me no and I should try and sell again once the lease is up but I’m wondering if there is any way this is justifiable?

I have also thought about a lump sum principal payment to get to the 20% LTV to get rid of the PMI.

zzyzzx says

have also thought about a lump sum principal payment to get to the 20% LTV to get rid of the PMI.

Ordinarily, I would say that might be his best option if he wants to hang in there for a while.

...but in this case, I think he's fucked. High interest rates (even if they lower they will still be higher than before) is fucking housing prices as people masturbated to. This is because Deglobalization adjustments and Boomers retiring and taking their money (aka Capital) out of their retirement investments over the next 10 years. Labor shortages will be with us for a while, too. Demographics are a bitch.