patrick.net

The_Deplorable says

90%? I guess so. I compared 7.77% 30 year fixed to 3.5% 30 year fixed and, yeah, almost double. Damn.

https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-home-prices-outlook-2024-mortgage-rates-inventory-zillow-2023-12

Home prices are getting slashed as inventory climbs and high mortgage rates push sellers to compete for buyers, Zillow says

Home prices are getting slashed at an unusual pace, thanks to a recent surge in inventory and still-high mortgage rates pushing sellers to compete for buyers, according to Zillow economists.

The share of listings on the market that saw a price cut in November was 22.6%, down slightly from October's 25% rate but still abnormally high for this time of year, the real estate listings site said in its monthly housing market update on Monday.

"Price cuts are more common than normal – chances are good that prices are negotiable," Zillow said.

The trend likely reflects sellers trying to attract buyers, who had largely been shut out of the housing market as mortgage rates soared.

ad says

The trend likely reflects sellers trying to attract buyers, who had largely been shut out of the housing market as mortgage rates soared.

The price cuts are on shit houses likely owned by losers that didn't maintain them. The housing inventory is shit. It's no surprise people are cutting prices. Anyone that bought in the past 15 years at this point is locked into a low interest rate. McMansions are no longer a trend and they aren't building new houses anyway. The stuff for sale is shit where I've looked and that's multiple states and territories.

Zillow is in the business of getting listing leads for people to sell houses. And also buy houses based on their leads. I can't think of a more biased, bull shit source. Anecdotal data matters. The housing bust hype won't materialize. It's click bait. Rates will drop and prices will go sideways in almost all markets. We're not in a boom or bust cycle. I think it will be 5 years before it moves one way or another substantially in the macro. Micro like SF, LA, NYC maybe ATL I could see losses.

i’m looking for another rental or investment opportunity if anyone here is looking for partnership. $500k to invest here.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

i’m looking for another rental or investment opportunity if anyone here is looking for partnership. $500k to invest here.

Put the money in Fidelity or one of the banks and collect 4.5-5% yield/interest while you’re looking for the opportunity. That’s what I would do. I would say more opportunities will likely arise sometime next year. If not, I would wait for the next recession. Don’t rush if there’s no good deal.

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/its-a-great-time-to-buy-a-house-says-realtor-who-gets-paid-if-you-buy-a-house

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-12-19/us-new-housing-starts-hit-six-month-high-video

US New Housing Starts Hit Six-Month High
Bloomberg MarketsTV Shows
December 19th, 2023, 10:05 AM CST
US new-home construction unexpectedly surged in November to a six-month high, benefiting from a dearth of existing houses on the market and suggesting the crunch in residential real estate is easing. Mark Rayfield, Saint-Gobain North America CEO, says they are still optimistic about the market. (Source: Bloomberg)

i don’t know how it’ll be in california, probably will go up forever. but out here in ID it’ll collapse like a brick once blue state exodus stops. nothing happens here, just construction and farming.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

i don’t know how it’ll be in california, probably will go up forever.

Depends on demographics in California such as number of qualified white collar and skilled blue collar versus the supply of homes.

Are Hollywood and Silicon Valley employment rolls increasing and are they compensating a lot to sustain the trends in California home prices ?

Another factor is if foreign buyers with cash are still interested in buying a home in California.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-home-sales-crash-lowest-level-16-years-1853707
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https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/19/residential-construction-gains-steam-single-family-starts-jump-to-highest-since-spring-2022-multi-family-rises-from-the-ashes/

ad says

Depends on demographics in California such as number of qualified white collar and skilled blue collar versus the supply of homes.

Are Hollywood and Silicon Valley employment rolls increasing and are they compensating a lot to sustain the trends in California home prices ?

Another factor is if foreign buyers with cash are still interested in buying a home in California.

Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.

* Indian co-worker bragged to me about all the bribes paid for gold his judge daddy had stashed in the house. Then it got ripped off (obviously an inside job with the servants) and so dad told him he'll have to wait a few more years to buy a house in SV.

I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.

PumpingRedheads says

I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.

Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.

PumpingRedheads says

Indians have replaced the Chinese now as those with cash from Corrupt Mommy & Daddy* Back Home driving up prices here.

The poor tech Indians live in these units.
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https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/

Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live

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WookieMan says

PumpingRedheads says

I've been seeing a lot of this in LV lately. Esp with the high end properties. This one is the most extreme, tho. $10 mill drop.

Might be a long shot. Money laundering? That makes no sense to list it that high and cut it that much.

Looking at a 23,000 square foot mansion in Chattanooga that took 7 years to build for $40 million. Now selling for $16 million. With 'furnishings collected from around the world' $19 million.

I am thinking that highly leveraged ritzies are now under increased financial stress thanks to the interest rates spiking. Either personally or their businesses or both. So, fire sale city!

I just looked at that house. Wow, pretty sweet. I bet it would be a non-stop upkeep nighmare though.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/

ad says

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https://studyfinds.org/cheapest-places-to-live/

Hickory, NC and Jackson, MS are among the cheapest places to live

.

I've hyped MS here before. Get on a lake in a not ghetto neighborhood and it's no different than Georgia, if not better and cheaper. Just know you're gonna deal with blacks if that ain't your jam. I'll be honest most are the good blacks coming from Chicagoland myself. Most people are scared of black peeople. I'd retire in a heart beat down there within in 2 hours drive of the coast. You could do it for next to nothing and not have a neighbor near you.

There are plenty of good black folk. The city turns lots of people into shit. IMO

GNL says

I just looked at that house. Wow, pretty sweet. I bet it would be a non-stop upkeep nighmare though.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6500-Solitude-Dr-Chattanooga-TN-37416/41402303_zpid/

It's got a utilidor tunnel under it. Like the ones under Disneyland.

Hate to think what it would cost to replace the roof, tho.

GNL says

There are plenty of good black folk. The city turns lots of people into shit. IMO

For sure. I've stated here probably 50 times at least get the fuck away from cities. It's only going to get worse. White, black, brown, yellow, whatever.

Rural blacks in mostly white communities thrive. That's including white trash trailer park type areas. Until blacks get back to family structure they're doomed. White folks are going down the same route of no family structure. The internet and social media have been a blessing but I'd argue more of a fucking disaster for everyone. People that get married, have kids, educate themselves are racists. It's a losing proposition to be white or black if it's against the agenda.

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Whatever keeps the wife happy.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

We can't all afford a slave.

Sorry, I scan this blog and found that straight line too "Johnny Carson" to resist making jokes.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/here-come-the-new-listings-of-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-demand-remains-at-collapsed-levels/

Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels

zzyzzx says

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/here-come-the-new-listings-of-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-demand-remains-at-collapsed-levels/

Here Come the New Listings of Existing Homes, Prices Drop Further, Demand Remains at Collapsed Levels

Yeah Wolfman @ Wolf Street has been rightfully warning about asset inflation and bubbles.

I figure housing should be around $340,000 based on the upper and lower trend lines.
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BigSky says

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

Whatever keeps the wife happy.

The black person is a child. I assume this is a joke?. I don't care, just pointing it out. Frankly don't understand what this has to do with my wife?

What's BigSky? You from Montana? I really don't get this comment overall. Or are you trolling?

WookieMan says

The black person is a child.

How many times have you posted bail for it?

WookieMan says

I assume this is a joke?

Yes. Duh.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

The black person is a child.

How many times have you posted bail for it?

I get this is a joke or assume as much. Zero. And it will stay zero.

WookieMan says

Zero. And it will stay zero.

Yes, because Illinois passed a no cash bail law.

Just adding to the jokes, here. Your statement about a Black in your house just opened the door for a few Patnetters to take the Mickey. All in fun and not serious. You know, like your advice on not letting the Tucker-Rock Bud Light bit bother anyone. Better than being ignored.

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

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HeadSet says

You know, like your advice on not letting the Tucker-Rock Bud Light bit bother anyone.

Advice??? I really don't understand the issue. I know what happened. Don't drink Bud Light. Don't pay for Kid Rock music. I really don't get what's so hard about that? It's petty to continue to bitch and whine about it. Kid Rock, John Daley and Tucker had a fucking hilarious conversation.

I doubt he does any, but I could be pumping Hunter Biden on a podcast, a real criminal. Rock flip flopped on a beer brand marketing gimmick...... and...? I don't like his music. It was financially motivated likely. He has a family. Anyone that wouldn't do something legal but looks wrong to make money for their family is a fucking liar. He didn't harm anyone and again, you don't have to buy Bud or buy Rock's music.

We got to stop getting butt hurt about stupid shit that a vocal minority brings up to get attention. Gays, trans, BLM, etc. Kid Rock fucked up and would have been better to ignore and stay out of the situation completely. But now people are butt hurt about my post. WTF?? Do you guys not see what is happening? It's a domino effect. Kid Rock does something, you complain about it, your brother does and all it is doing is giving attention to something we should have just ignored. Now this trans fag or whatever it is gets all the attention. You lost. You just don't know it. And the freak won.

Let the gays and weirdos have their fun. We can stop it. When we give it attention all we do is help it get more.

ad says

Yeah Wolfman Wolf Street has been rightfully warning about asset inflation and bubbles.

I figure housing should be around $340,000 based on the upper and lower trend lines.
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Housing would drop from peak $415,000 to $340,000 which is about a 18% drop. For every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate, housing prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability standards.

Peak prices generally were set around early 2022 and incomes/wages have increased in 2022 and 2023 to catch up with housing costs.

So if the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5.5%, then housing will be in the best affordability range at least since early 2022.

Recall that the 30 year mortgage rate was around 3.75% when housing prices were starting to peak.

Buy down 4 discount points at a cost of 4% of the mortgage to reduce the 30 year mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%. That is a great deal cause a 1% drop in the 30 year mortgage rate is equivalent of lowering the price by 10%.

I think you'll see a lot more sellers putting their homes on the market when rates steady below 6% and they'll offer incentives like buying discount points for the buyer.
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WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

how do keep your bikes from disappearing?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house

Did you call the police?

WookieMan says

Also I'm probably the only person on this forum with a black person in their house.

How much have home values dropped in your neighborhood?

In this country, the Case Shiller index rose 4.8% year over year in October. Yes, that was back when the 30 year mortgage was 8%.

Case Shiller measures the increase/decrease in the price of the same properties after factoring out improvements. It is not a timely report coming out a few months after the fact, but it is the most reliable gauge of home prices.

There is simply no inventory of properties for sale, and the ones that do pop up are crap. There is no imperative to sell, with most homes with a mortgage being refinanced at about 3%. We will see what next year brings maybe there will be more forced sales, but maybe lower rates to offset. We will see.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/sp-case-shiller-october-home-prices-post-biggest-gain-of-2023.html

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

WookieMan says

I get the jokes guys. But for the first time on this site I am actually offended. He's my son at this point. I suppose I regret ever bringing it up. Whatever. I know some users better here now is all moving forward.

I apologize. It was in jest.