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This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.
This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.
This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.
I don’t know if it’s a good or bad idea to cut rates ASAP. Time will tell.
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1752397638836850847?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q
Eman says
This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.
This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.
Really? Why no dates on the chart?
Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).
GNL says
Eman says
This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.
This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.
Really? Why no dates on the chart?
Good point. I guess early 2020 would be the start of the graph. Peak price was February 2022. "Return to Normal" (which has a rectangle drawn around it) is currently were housing market is. Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).
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AD says
Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).
Despair over what?
GNL says
AD says
Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).
Despair over what?
Refer to Eman's housing bubble chart, and "despair" is the region where housing prices bottom. Maybe prices bottom by late summer 2024, so another 10% drop at least in housing prices from current price level.
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They want rates cut because the economy is shedding jobs that are middle class. The only major job growth is in low wage jobs.
They figure it will cause another asset-inflation cycle and a repeat of 2023 for the stock market is going to help Biden.
And they think we'll get a repeat of a hiring boom by the major corporations since interest rates are lower.
Economic conditions are delicate for Biden because you could have a major increase in unemployment within a couple of months of the election.
Timing is working against Biden since the stock market is over bought from 2023, and unemployment cannot remain this low.
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The probability of the Fed cutting 0.25% in March currently stands at 55%. There was no chance of the Fed cutting rate today although Pocahontas and 3 D senators pleaded for a cut
They want rates cut because the economy is shedding jobs that are middle class. The only major job growth is in low wage jobs.
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Eman says
The probability of the Fed cutting 0.25% in March currently stands at 55%. There was no chance of the Fed cutting rate today although Pocahontas and 3 D senators pleaded for a cut
I doubt it Mister Eman unless PCE remains below 2.5% for three consecutive months ..then the Fed may start to lower rates, especially if unemployment upticks ...
If I knew what the Fed would do, I wouldn’t be posting on Patnet.
Eman says
If I knew what the Fed would do, I wouldn’t be posting on Patnet.
You keep telling us how rich you are in investing in real estate and still post on Patnet. So why would it make a difference if you knew what the Fed would do as far as posting on Patnet. Knowing this info is not going to make you rich as much as having inside information on a stock and buying calls or puts.
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Do you know you much you can make buying 0DTE calls or puts and be on the right side of the trade? I’ve seen it up to 10,000% ROI.
Eman says
Guessing surplus in Dallas and Phoenix are due to lots of new construction. But New York and Denver, shithole conditions combined with ridiculous rents.
Eman says
Do you know you much you can make buying 0DTE calls or puts and be on the right side of the trade? I’ve seen it up to 10,000% ROI.
I would say you have equity of at least $5 million in real estate and $1 million in stocks/bonds/ETFs, and at least $100,000 in cash such as checking and savings account. Anymore than $3 million in equity is rich, even in California.
Yes I know this as far as zero days to expiration (0DTE) but its not that you are going to make that much money based only on a Federal Reserve decision on the same day such as for ticker SPY or even on the leveraged or inverse ETFs with Proshares.
Which ETF or stock have you seen the 10,000% ROI ?
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This was 7/29/2022. This guy bought $880 TSLA calls (pre-split) for 10 cents that morning. Before the market closed, it was worth over $10. I was just following the guy. I made $10k on that trade while he made millions. Learned a few nuggets from him before he quit the discord to open his own Private Equity firm. The guy is a pro day trader who trades big big money.
Someone has been paying attention. If tech do well, Bay Area real estate will do well and vice versa.
Been looking at homes in the Castle Rock, CO area. The place is exploding with new development.
I believe his name was shared on here before. Looks like he expects the commercial real estate (CRE) market will experience a big downturn. If he’s right, the Fed will cut rates so fast when this CRE market hits the fan. Time will tell.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.