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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   606,581 views  5,687 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4583   AD   2024 Mar 7, 10:49pm  

AmericanKulak says

old school pensions of 65% last 3 years salary plus guaranteed COLA


The only source I can think of this is either federal government pensions CSRS (not FERS), which means they were hired before Reagan's second term.

Or its a state pension like New York.

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4584   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 7, 10:51pm  

AD says


AmericanKulak says


old school pensions of 65% last 3 years salary plus guaranteed COLA


The only source I can think of this is either federal government pensions CSRS (not FERS), which means they were hired before Reagan's second term.

Or its a state pension like New York.

.


Yep. I know a guy who retired in the 2000s and worked for NYS since the 1960s. I saw his check and it was $6k something. But there's a lot of retired military or MIC contractors with big checks or two decent checks (military and Boeing/Lockheed) every month, plus investments, Soc Sec, etc.

He's a flaming Liberal and everytime I pass by, PMSNBC is on.
4585   AD   2024 Mar 7, 11:02pm  

AmericanKulak says

MIC contractors with big checks or two decent checks (military and Boeing/Lockheed) every month, plus investments, Soc Sec, etc.


Lockheed (or Lockmart) as well as the rest of the major MIC's like Boeing stopped their defined pension plans and went 401k path at least 35 years ago.

So you are talking people who worked at Lockmart from 1950 to 1985 and got 25 years of pension credit.

The "military guys" can get a military pension for +20 years of service plus a VA disability (if rated at least 50% then not deducted from military pension) plus get social security.

This guy who worked for NY State since 1960s has to be at least 75 years old.

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4586   AD   2024 Mar 7, 11:05pm  

AmericanKulak says

80s Cocaine Condo Construction Binge


Understand.

I just know before the Surfside building collapse, that in Panama City Beach the insurance companies would hire and send in professional engineers along with general contractors to inspect the condos from roof to foundation.

The insurance companies usually have on speed dial or retainer what you call "forensic engineers" which were mostly PEs with civil engineering background or mechanical engineers who could perform civil engineering work. These are the engineers they would send in once a year to inspect their buildings.

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4587   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 8, 4:53am  

AD says

Lockheed (or Lockmart) as well as the rest of the major MIC's like Boeing stopped their defined pension plans and went 401k path at least 35 years ago.


As a member of the military industrial complex, I can confirm that I don't have a defined benefit pension here.
4589   HeadSet   2024 Mar 8, 7:27am  

My county in Virginia just sent out assessment notices. Massive increase averaging about 25%, mine was actually 36% which means my real estate tax will be about $2,000 higher next year. I plan to go to the next county board meeting just to see the reaction from all these citizens who will also see massive tax increases. I am sure the county supervisors are dreading the April meetings.
4590   RedStar   2024 Mar 8, 7:41am  

My prop taxes went down in Idaho about 20%. Amazing how that never happens in a blue state.
4591   AD   2024 Mar 8, 11:57am  

HeadSet says


My county in Virginia just sent out assessment notices. Massive increase averaging about 25%, mine was actually 36% which means my real estate tax will be about $2,000 higher next year. I plan to go to the next county board meeting just to see the reaction from all these citizens who will also see massive tax increases. I am sure the county supervisors are dreading the April meetings.


They are trying to catch up with the increase in home market values ? I know some counties are slow to increase the assessment rate when home values increase a lot.

Virginia should not be bad off due to all the federal guvmint money there (active duty, federal civil servants, military industry / Newport News Shipyard, etc) especially compared to California's budget deficit for 2024. Also tourism is a sizeable industry in Virginia, go to the vineyards starting about 50 miles west of downtown Washington DC like Crysallis Vineyard and drink Sarah's Patio Red.

Florida has a law called Save Our Homes (SOH). It is a property tax cap amendment to Florida's constitution, homestead property assessments can't increase more than 3% from the previous assessment period. (The cap for non-homestead properties is 10%.)

The trick in Florida is when you sell your home the buyer has a period of non homestead exemption which can range from 1 day to 364 days depending on when the county starts accepting new applications for homestead exemption. That is when the county can issue a 10% increase in the property tax instead of a 3% increase.

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....
4592   Misc   2024 Mar 8, 4:02pm  

Nothing says prices going up quite like free money. Biden's proposing $10000 in free money for 1st time homebuyers and $10000 to the people who sell their homes that have a mortgage.

As a special freebie offer for illegals $25000 in down payment assistance.

It's only your taxes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/biden-has-a-plan-to-make-homeownership-more-affordable-here-s-what-it-could-mean-for-hopeful-homebuyers/ar-BB1jzVXY?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1d4564ac011f45c88696c3c60ba42747&ei=143
4593   HeadSet   2024 Mar 8, 7:09pm  

Misc says

Nothing says prices going up quite like free money. Biden's proposing $10000 in free money for 1st time homebuyers and $10000 to the people who sell their homes that have a mortgage.

As a special freebie offer for illegals $25000 in down payment assistance.

It's only your taxes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/biden-has-a-plan-to-make-homeownership-more-affordable-here-s-what-it-could-mean-for-hopeful-homebuyers/ar-BB1jzVXY?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1d4564ac011f45c88696c3c60ba42747&ei=143

These are designed to keep the prices of home high.
4594   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 8, 7:15pm  

AD says


This guy who worked for NY State since 1960s has to be at least 75 years old.

He is, I'd say about 80.

The peak birth year for boomers is 1957, so we are now past almost all Boomers being Soc Sec eligible.

Now it's time for bum knees, COPD, strokes, and heart attacks that make walking up to the 2nd story of the Condo Building or Townhouse or rare FL SFH being out of reach (breath?)

Add the explosion in condo assoc fees from needed reserves, insurance increases, etc. and it's prime selling time that can't be delayed.
4595   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 8, 7:17pm  

AD says


Florida has a law called Save Our Homes (SOH). It is a property tax cap amendment to Florida's constitution, homestead property assessments can't increase more than 3% from the previous assessment period. (The cap for non-homestead properties is 10%.)

Only if the CPI is below 3%. If it isn't, it doesn't apply. It also doesn't cover several local rates/taxes.


Homeowners who receive the homestead exemption also benefit from the Save Our Homes assessment limitation, which caps increases in assessed value at 3% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower. So even if you own a home in a hot housing market, your taxes won’t skyrocket (unless one of your local government bodies increases rates).

https://smartasset.com/taxes/florida-property-tax-calculator

Also, buyers should be very careful of the taxes, many who brought a FL house for $250k and were told the taxes were $1000 based on a 1995 locked in assessment get a big surprise the net year.
4596   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 8, 7:29pm  

ROCKET MORTGAGE SHUTS DOWN ORIGINATION DEPARTMENT
Rocket to shut down origination channel for real estate and insurance agents
All real estate agents, insurance agents and other financial pros must submit new mortgage applications by March 29, 2024

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/rocket-to-shut-down-origination-channel-for-real-estate-and-insurance-agents/

Rocket was the largest retail lender, and largest online lender.
4597   GNL   2024 Mar 8, 7:32pm  

This country is a financial joke to the max. F'ng clown world.
4599   AD   2024 Mar 8, 11:06pm  

GNL says

This country is a financial joke to the max. F'ng clown world.


I would say the 80's and 90's that the economy was remarkable. Look by 1999 how the internet became a major part of economy and society.

The economy has produced achievements since then but its also been susceptible to Wall Street bubbles and housing inflation.

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4600   GNL   2024 Mar 9, 3:46am  

AD says

GNL says


This country is a financial joke to the max. F'ng clown world.


I would say the 80's and 90's that the economy was remarkable. Look by 1999 how the internet became a major part of economy and society.

The economy has produced achievements since then but its also been susceptible to Wall Street bubbles and housing inflation.

.

But now there isn't any gift the government isn't willing to waste money on.
4601   stfu   2024 Mar 9, 4:47am  

AmericanKulak says

ROCKET MORTGAGE SHUTS DOWN ORIGINATION DEPARTMENT
Rocket to shut down origination channel for real estate and insurance agents
All real estate agents, insurance agents and other financial pros must submit new mortgage applications by March 29, 2024

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/rocket-to-shut-down-origination-channel-for-real-estate-and-insurance-agents/

Rocket was the largest retail lender, and largest online lender.


This is paywalled so I'll have to wait for Housing Wire daily podcast to interview James Kleiman (author and editor at Housing Wire) but I don't think this impacts Rockets Mortgage Business in any material way. I read it as they are sun setting an old software package that is used by a tiny fraction of the profession. Certainly there are alternative software suites in use by Loan Officers.
4602   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 9, 10:42am  

I suspect the transactions are so low volume, they're not bothering to offer the origination channel.
4603   Eman   2024 Mar 9, 12:10pm  

I know it doesn’t fit the narrative for some folks here who believe this place is a shithole. Given it’s ranked one of the best places to live, I can’t imagine where they live would be called. 🤔

https://abc7news.com/san-jose-us-news-and-world-report-25-best-places-to-live-ranked-number-4-in/14496724/
4604   porkchopXpress   2024 Mar 9, 2:08pm  

Eman says


I know it doesn’t fit the narrative for some folks here who believe this place is a shithole. Given it’s ranked one of the best places to live, I can’t imagine where they live would be called. 🤔

https://abc7news.com/san-jose-us-news-and-world-report-25-best-places-to-live-ranked-number-4-in/14496724/

I'm sorry man but I lived in San Jose for almost six years and really disliked it. Ridiculous traffic, terrible schools, insanely expensive, massive salad bowl of multiculturalism where people stay segregated, total lack of community, no real city identity.

The only thing going for it was the weather and jobs.
4605   Eman   2024 Mar 9, 2:55pm  

porkchopXpress says

Eman says



I know it doesn’t fit the narrative for some folks here who believe this place is a shithole. Given it’s ranked one of the best places to live, I can’t imagine where they live would be called. 🤔

https://abc7news.com/san-jose-us-news-and-world-report-25-best-places-to-live-ranked-number-4-in/14496724/

I'm sorry man but I lived in San Jose for almost six years and really disliked it. Ridiculous traffic, terrible schools, insanely expensive, massive salad bowl of multiculturalism where people stay segregated, total lack of community, no real city identity.

The only thing going for it was the weather and jobs.

Maybe reach out to the surveying company and tell them their surveying method is BS? I didn’t believe the result either, but I don’t get to decide. Just want to share the other side of the coin.
4607   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 9, 3:05pm  

According to Apartmentlist.com, over half of the 15 steepest rent declines YoY Feb23-Feb24 were in Florida, followed by Texas.



Keep in mind February is peak Snowbird.

The COVID shelter states will lead the way in housing & rental declines in the coming Recession.
4608   GNL   2024 Mar 9, 4:07pm  

Eman says


I know it doesn’t fit the narrative for some folks here who believe this place is a shithole. Given it’s ranked one of the best places to live, I can’t imagine where they live would be called. 🤔

https://abc7news.com/san-jose-us-news-and-world-report-25-best-places-to-live-ranked-number-4-in/14496724/

Eman, most likely, most of us here are over 50. That means the 70s are our most fond memories. So, that's a memory mix of childhood freedom, the actual level of freedom, homogany and less income inequality (I don't really like that word) than now. Would you let your 3rd and 4th grader run the neighborhood without you knowing where they were? Including a few blocks away at friends homes that your parents don't know? We did this and it wasn't weird at all.

Question: can a place be the least shifty place but still be a shifty place? I know I call the US a shithole but it's mostly because of what I remember + how bad the government has become. And I believe it's going to continue to get worse.
4609   GNL   2024 Mar 9, 4:25pm  

Eman, we've come from a time when plenty of blue collar men got married, had kids, a house, healthcare and retirement while the wife stayed home and raised the kids. And everyone in America loved America. And those that came assimilated and didn't come just to take advantage of a shitty communist government. It sure seemed like it anyway.
4610   AD   2024 Mar 9, 4:37pm  

Eman says

I know it doesn’t fit the narrative for some folks here who believe this place is a shithole. Given it’s ranked one of the best places to live, I can’t imagine where they live would be called.


Not a narrative Mister Eman, it is self-evident truth. You keep putting out these California puff-pieces written by smug left wing authoritarian soy-boy media types and you think I'm going to just sit here and not keep my big mouth shut ?

This is just typical jerk-off self-promotion of California (by the obnoxious hyper-achiever Asian immigrant class) to distract from California government's deficit disaster.

And just so you know, don't fucking run for the exits to Arizona, Florida or Texas when it gets that bad there. I know you and your klan or tribe will be the first with your luggage over filling with cash and gold.

Oh by the way, they don't have Saturday Calculus classes for 7 year to 12 year old Asians in the Florida panhandle.

.
4611   Eman   2024 Mar 9, 5:32pm  

GNL says

Eman, we've come from a time when plenty of blue collar men got married, had kids, a house, healthcare and retirement while the wife stayed home and raised the kids. And everyone in America loved America. It sure seemed like it anyway.

TBH, I don’t know who to blame. The government? Society? Left wingers? Right wingers? Liberals? LBGT?

You could say we’re lucky, but our families make do with what we have. Between my wife’s and mine, we have 11 siblings. 5 families have been living on single household income, not including us, as I consider myself still working. 2 of the 5 don’t have a college degree. Schools weren’t their things. We all made choices, and none of us is whining while living in one of the most expensive cities in America. We shelter each other and make sure everyone has a house. To me, it’s about the culture, family value and mindset. Could we argue that we were raised by “strong men” while this generation, or even the previous one, was raised by weak men?
4612   Eman   2024 Mar 9, 5:41pm  

@AD,

I’ve been to all those 3 states. Trust me, they’re NOT on my list to move to. You don’t have to worry about this part. In fact, I believe I’ll die in the Silicon Valley and the Golden State.

I don’t know who published the article and who the author is, or their survey method. I just find the results funny. I figure some of you would get a kick out of it, and I was right. Rather than doing something to rectify the findings and results…like contacting the author, you whine and bitch about it. How will that change the outcome, or improve anything?
4613   Eman   2024 Mar 9, 5:42pm  

@AD,

It’s interesting you mention you have a big mouth. May I ask are you an introvert in real life?
4614   GNL   2024 Mar 9, 7:01pm  

Eman, you are 100% correct though...we all have to make do with what we have + our abilities + our motivations. Government though, is definitely a problem. No one can deny this, correct?
4615   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 9, 7:10pm  

GNL says

Eman, we've come from a time when plenty of blue collar men got married, had kids, a house, healthcare and retirement while the wife stayed home and raised the kids. And everyone in America loved America. And those that came assimilated and didn't come just to take advantage of a shitty communist government. It sure seemed like it anyway.

GNL says

That means the 70s are our most fond memories.



4616   Eman   2024 Mar 9, 8:20pm  

GNL says

Eman, you are 100% correct though...we all have to make do with what we have + our abilities + our motivations. Government though, is definitely a problem. No one can deny this, correct?

This reminds me of what Rand Paul said:


4617   AD   2024 Mar 10, 9:20pm  

Eman says


AD,

It’s interesting you mention you have a big mouth. May I ask are you an introvert in real life?


I'm more obnoxious in real life. So the answer is an obvious no.

Maybe I was slightly more restrained and quiet going back 20 years but as I have reached financial independence, I've enjoyed being a lot more vocal and insulting to the right kind of people.
.
4618   AD   2024 Mar 10, 9:58pm  

Eman says

Rather than doing something to rectify the findings and results…like contacting the author, you whine and bitch about it. How will that change the outcome, or improve anything?


What do you want to do ? Go knock down the door of the soy boy author and give him a Soprano-style beat down ?

The Patnet community or space is exactly meant as a "bitch and whine" forum.

The Patnet "foundation of freedoms" is inclusive of whining, bitching and well-earned insulting.

Its in same context as Biden "freedoms" including freedom from personal responsibility such as freedom to not be held accountable for student loan debt.

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4619   Eman   2024 Mar 10, 10:31pm  

AD says

Eman says



AD,

It’s interesting you mention you have a big mouth. May I ask are you an introvert in real life?


I'm more obnoxious in real life. So the answer is an obvious no.

Maybe I was slightly more restrained and quiet going back 20 years but as I have reached financial independence, I've enjoyed being a lot more vocal and insulting to the right kind of people.
.

The reason I asked because someone else is also quite vocal on this forum, but said he’s an introvert in real life. I just want to see if there’s a pattern. That’s all.

I’ve noticed it too. The sentiment/energy on this forum has been quite negative. I intentionally share posts to provoke people view things from a different angle/POV. It hasn’t been working….Sigh.

Given I’m a positive, yes you can, type of individual (thanks to my dad), I’ve been thinking of leaving Patnet and focus my time on something more positive and constructive. I did it before and joined Biggerpockets when Patnet got away from being a Housing Bubble forum. Maybe it’s time to do it again.

As a going away present, you asked for my net worth previously. It’s currently in the 8 figures. Getting to 9 figures seems achievable to me, but I’m shooting for 10. When I quit my W2, my supervisor said “___, I want to see you on the Forbes Fortune 100 list one of these days.” I had lunch with him a couple weeks ago and reminded him that I still remember what he said. Others can see our potential, but they don’t tell us. Why is that?

This was the convo I had with my besties last month. We encourage and push each other to achieve higher. It’s not about flashing anything with anyone. He’s a millennial so he has more time on his side.

Best of luck if we don’t chat again.

Cheers!



If anyone happens to live in Morrisville, NC and meet or know my real estate mentor, he can tell you what kind of guy I’m in real life.


4620   WookieMan   2024 Mar 11, 6:13am  

GNL says

Would you let your 3rd and 4th grader run the neighborhood without you knowing where they were? Including a few blocks away at friends homes that your parents don't know? We did this and it wasn't weird at all.

We 1,000% do. We're in town, but it's just a little downtown strip and 800 homes. The true country kids bring their bikes into town and hang out all day and just go to random in town friends houses. I let my 5th grader drive around the golf cart illegally but I know the cops. Came home yesterday to two kids we know just hanging out with my kids. Whatever.

Recently just had an event and left the kids home alone. Oldest is 13 and then 12 and 10. It's amazing. They're not idiots. I'm strict, but not abusive. My kids know not to fuck up. Have a few friends that are way too soft on their kids and let them do stupid shit. The 13 year old wants a legit job, but can't until 14.

I'm still old school. My parents had a condo in Florida and would spend two weeks there and my sister and I would be home alone. My one buddy his parents moved to Wisconsin and kept the home so he could finish high school. We had some extremely good times. For good or bad.

As a parent I worry more about creepy adults. When the wife travels I'll shoot the shit with the kids for 2 hours telling stories, but also making sure they're being aware. Our town is too chill though, so not overly worried. We let them run around on their own on cruise ships now and resorts.

I think it's indoctrination of women/moms more than anything. My wife is hot, but she'd identify more a man mentality if I'm being honest. Tiger mom. She doesn't like other women generally unless they're producers so to speak business wise. So that tends to be men and highly successful females. I sought out women that would be successful.

Tangent aside, get out of cities and big suburbs. We exist still where we let our kids do shit and trust them. Came home yesterday and had no clue where my nephew was. I didn't care. I care about him, but I trust him because of the years we've had with him. You fuck up I will chew your ass out. They know that. Again not physical. Suburban moms are the worst though.

Point being we still have communities where kids can have fun if behaving.
4621   GNL   2024 Mar 11, 6:51am  

We just moved out (south) of McLean/Tysons Corner area of Northern Virginia. We like it much better here but still not far enough out. Pretty soon, we should be able to live anywhere. With some luck and more transactions/listings, the business will not need me to be close to anyone or anything I don't want to be close to.
4622   WookieMan   2024 Mar 11, 7:28am  

Eman says

I’ve noticed it too. The sentiment/energy on this forum has been quite negative. I intentionally share posts to provoke people view things from a different angle/POV. It hasn’t been working….Sigh.

I actually don't think it has been negative here. I think most are just posting facts. I do very well. Sounds like you do too. The difference it 80-90% of the country isn't. I can't control it, but we point it out. Is it negative to point out others doing bad and needing a boost? Sure. Can't fix it if we don't talk about it though.

We literally have a POTUS that has dementia. We have massive issues we're involved with in Ukraine and Isreal/Gaza. Your state literally has shit on the streets in cities. More people died in Chicago than Afghanistan and Iraq combined during the same time period. State pension debt is unsustainable almost everywhere. Watch a House or Senate committee hearing and tell me you think we have intelligent leadership.

I don't mind different points of view, but talking about things like a car is senseless when there are actual facts about it that you're wrong on. It's not negative. Talking about real estate deals with no evidence. I've been on Bigger Pockets. Everyone puffs and lies. I've worked with investors that have 2k apartment units in Chicago. They're broke. Are they smart, yes to an extent. But they over leverage and it's all paper money until they actually sell.

Your 9 figures are fine, but you're in CA... That's like making 6 figures in Schaumburg, IL. I get people wouldn't aspire to move to IL, but you're living on a different planet than 90% of the country. I'm being sincere when I say I'm glad you do well. But you are so blind to what this country really is. That's why I've asked where you've traveled. I've been to all the lower 48. All the major cities for the most part. I'll be in Florida in two weeks for 8 days. Was just in Montana and Florida in January. Wife was just in Costa Rica.

If you haven't traveled the US fully, your opinion is California centric. Basically wrong outside of your bubble. It's not negative, you just don't know better. I'm trying to sneak a trip to Palm Spring in. Conference for the wife and I don't want to deal with that shit and it's a $12 flight. I'd drive north and meet up with patnet people and just do my own solo trip. I'm willing to sit down with anyone and have a conversation as text is sometimes misconstrued.

I do swear a lot though. So if that offends I'm gonna piss anyone off. Don't leave the site though Eman. Good with the bad. Sometimes you have to take some heat. Negative. It makes you think. Maybe I didn't have it right? Always be questioning. Have opinions.

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