patrick.net

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

The Housing Experts of PatNet Who Don't Know Jack Shit

Who are these housing experts you refer to?

Most self-identified Californians on this site including Patrick himself have expressed skepticism about the Housing Hooplah.

GNL says

There’s quite a bit of information missing in that article, no? San Franciscan sellers are actually bringing $155,000 to the settlement table? How long did these sellers own the property?

These are only people who bought recently (past couple of years) at inflated prices. Anybody pre 2020 is certainly not sitting on a loss

AD says

• Nationwide, the share of sellers losing money is much smaller (4%) because home prices remain near their record high.

True but why!? (re: prices) I have no frigin idear but I have an example, I've been looking for lake front property here in Texas:

https://www.zillow.com/lake-medina-highlands-pipe-creek-tx/

There have been zero houses sold that are 'water front' in 2 years but prior to that plenty of movement. Prices there jumped anywhere from 30-70% for these houses after covid got going and they are still close to all time highs. I do see some insignificant price drops.

And here's the thing, if you switch to satellite view you can see the damn lake is basically empty and has been for quite some time. That's exactly why I'm interested in it - cheap country real estate where sometimes I get to enjoy water, other times I take the side by side down into the dust and target shoot.

I went to an open house last summer for kicks and the real estate lady tried to tell me the owner was offering 20K to put in a well because people used to pump from the lake into tanks. Farmers built the damn 100 years ago and own the water rights and drain it a lot lately.

Anyhoo, she told he she priced it herself but little did she know my best friend's brother lives 2 doors down and did the same thing. He was quoted 60K for the 800ft drill through limestone. He's also formerly senior at D.R Horton so I'm sure he got a good quote.

Only 2 others were there before me and I got there 45mins before the open house was over. I explained that I invest in properties too and that I knew the house was waaaay overpriced (she agreed) and tried to talk her into calling me if she really found a deal. She agreed nothing had sold in over a year at that time too. She didn't want to talk, she wanted to get me the fuck out of the house so I don't scare of non-existent other buyers who might show up lol.

If I see at least a minimum of 30% price drops in meth-ville I'll buy something for my house collection but I'm really not sure that's going to happen there.

nearly 1000 feet of lakefront access of Medina Lake (when the lake is full)

ROTFLMAO

I wanted to buy this 8 acre peninsula there but he was asking 1.150K and property taxes in TX are a killer:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/369-County-Road-2602-Mico-TX-78056/87444684_zpid/

It's got some very cool limestone bluffs that you could build a partially submerged house along the ledge - make it bomb proof.

The other thing about that lake, it's on swiss cheese limestone over the Edwards Aquifer so it's leaky at the bottom too.

There is a 10 square mile area that needs to get rained on to fill this lake up near Boerne. Lots of rain lately but not a drop for Medina Lake. No rain in that specific spot, no lake.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-13293369/san-francisco-housing-market-stumble-crime.html

Nearly 20% of San Francisco homes are sold at a LOSS - with the average seller getting $155,500 less than they paid - as market crumbles amid soaring crime

The number of homes that sold at a loss was four times the national average

GNL says

San Franciscan sellers are actually bringing $155,000 to the settlement table? How long did these sellers own the property?

Good question, and I wonder if they are flippers or investors who are just trying to cut their loses and put their money in Bitcoin or somewhere else.

I don't think they are sellers who are selling their primary homes and are just emergency eggressing from that shithole San Fran.

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I know someone who is going weekends around San Jose, CA to buy preferably a SFH. He sees lot of crowd to compete while the price is high and going up slightly over the last few weeks rather than going down. The new 7+% interest could get some discount in prices. We suspect, they must be cash buyers!

Blue says

I know someone who is going weekends around San Jose, CA to buy preferably a SFH.

Is that Eman ? He's been AWOL for a while and I wonder if he is going to return.

I feel bad for knocking him because he was a fluffer for San Fran Bay Area, and he was descriptive about escaping the Architect and Engineering rat race to work for himself.

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Blue says

San Jose, CA

Housing Market 2024: Home Prices Are Plummeting in 10 Formerly Overpriced Housing Markets

San Jose, CA
February median home list price: $1.367 million
Median list price year over year: -2.3%

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/housing-market-2024-home-prices-are-plummeting-in-10-formerly-overpriced-housing-markets/ss-BB1lkz6A#image=6

Patrick says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-13293369/san-francisco-housing-market-stumble-crime.html

Nearly 20% of San Francisco homes are sold at a LOSS - with the average seller getting $155,500 less than they paid - as market crumbles amid soaring crime

The number of homes that sold at a loss was four times the national average

As I mentioned, CA is going to make housing prices look bad. It's not that bad outside of CA and NY nationwide. Those states are in the early phase of exodus. 15 years in RE and witnessing my home state fall apart, I know what it looks like. The prices in those states are high, so it's going to look worse than it actually is. Media is generally based out of those two states as well so the fear porn is going to be projected pretty heavy.

RWSGFY says

nearly 1000 feet of lakefront access of Medina Lake (when the lake is full)

ROTFLMAO

Exactly! There are also meth heads all over, trailer parks and the area is generally run down because it's boom or bust there - boom when the lake is up, bust otherwise. These people are dreaming things will sell at those prices.

As an aside: What is it about lakes and meth addicts? There are meth heads North of town at another large lake and two of the Lakes in California I used to frequent were full of them: Oroville, Clearlake (not sure about Berryessa, Bullard's Bar, Shasta or Fulsom as I was too young to notice)

WookieMan says

It's not that bad outside of CA and NY nationwide.

Tell that to people in San Antonio who want to buy a house and make less to be middle class than virtually any other city of the same size: 3 of my rental houses have increased 100K (50%) over the past few years and prices are not dropping.

WookieMan says

As I mentioned, CA is going to make housing prices look bad. It's not that bad outside of CA and NY nationwide. Those states are in the early phase of exodus. 15 years in RE and witnessing my home state fall apart, I know what it looks like. The prices in those states are high, so it's going to look worse than it actually is. Media is generally based out of those two states as well so the fear porn is going to be projected pretty heavy.

I recall CNN pumping Atlanta (headquarters) RE prices just before the dot com boom started and the SF bay area took off instead. Atlanta was to have a future where it became one of the most expensive places to live. (talking their own book)

just_passing_through says

WookieMan says

It's not that bad outside of CA and NY nationwide.

Tell that to people in San Antonio who want to buy a house and make less to be middle class than virtually any other city of the same size: 3 of my rental houses have increased 100K (50%) over the past few years and prices are not dropping.

So there's demand. Prices rise.

I'm talking about the areas where people are leaving. Specifically CA and NY. Because their median home prices are so high it will drag down the national prices and everyone freaks out. San Antonio would maybe nudge the national median 0.005% either way. A $10M CA mansion or $10M penthouse in NYC sell for 30% less makes the market look way worse.

You can argue is it affordable for most. Probably not. But no one is selling, so are they hurting for money? Doesn't seem like it. CA and NY are what IL was a decade ago. Everyone is leaving.

WookieMan says

I'm talking about the areas where people are leaving. Specifically CA

WookieMan says

CA and NY are what IL was a decade ago. Everyone is leaving.

Good.

The population of California is way above the carrying capacity of the water supply and infrastructure (roads, traffic and congestion, etc).

Housing costs are so freaking high we need a crash. On a cursory google search it said 1.8% of Californians with mortqages are under water, about one fourth the percentage of the rest of the US.

An exodus will be good for us: good for the carrying capacity of the land, for the traffic and congestion, good for house prices for nearly everyone except the Tiny Percentage who recently purchased with borrowed money. It will even be good for local government that's addicted to Property Taxes like crack cocaine. The prices are so damn high there's no reassessments (Proposition 13) that come with the turnover. Local government needs a stimulus, nothing like a crash in prices to help with that.

We had an exodus of Hipsters after the dot.com collapse in the early part of the millenium. Some folks had major rent reductions. My boss at the time told me his rent of his 1 BR apartment was reduced from $2400 per month to less than $2000. I forgot the amount he said. Maybe $1800 or something like that. He told me that the landlord reached out to him and offered an immediate rent reduction even though the lease had months to go.

A housing price collapse and population exodus will make things less unlivable for nearly all Californians who stay.

Bring it on.

There will be no significant decline in either CA or NY unless in some shitty urban, inner big city areas. Rates are already at 7% and prices hardly budged. Builders aren't building and it's a racket anyways. They'll just keep building "affordable housing" in prime areas for 1MM per apartment unit with tax dollars. Also I'd like to see less people in CA as well

mell says

There will be no significant decline in either CA or NY unless in some shitty urban, inner big city areas. Rates are already at 7% and prices hardly budged.

WookieMan says

CA and NY are what IL was a decade ago. Everyone is leaving.

Yup.

That's the difference, mell. You and me live here. We know wtf we're talking about, whereas Wookie is as clueless about the facts on the ground in our state as he is about aviation.

Spending brief amounts of time visiting folks in California makes one no more of informed expert on our region as being a frequent flyer on Southwest makes one an aviation expert.

B.A.C.A.H. says

We had an exodus of Hipsters after the dot.com collapse

I'd thought the hipsters showed up a wee bit later? Libertarians (with the normal faggotry in 'the city') -> metro-sexuals -> hipsters -> woke -> broke -> collapse.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Some folks had major rent reductions. My boss at the time told me his rent of his 1 BR apartment was reduced from $2400 per month to less than $2000.

Oh me too! My studio dropped from 1200 -> 850.

just_passing_through says

B.A.C.A.H. says

We had an exodus of Hipsters after the dot.com collapse

I'd thought the hipsters showed up a wee bit later? Libertarians (with the normal faggotry in 'the city') -> metro-sexuals -> hipsters -> woke -> broke -> collapse.

Before the metro sexual Hipsters were the dot.com Hipsters who came here in the mid-to-late 90's to be part of the scene. The first wave of Smugsters to SF.

just_passing_through says

Oh me too! My studio dropped from 1200 -> 850.

The region did not collapse. Just the dot.com did. And the rents.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The region did not collapse. Just the dot.com did. And the rents.

I was living in a shiitehole in Redwood City at the time.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Before the metro sexual Hipsters were the dot.com Hipsters who came here in the mid-to-late 90's to be part of the scene. The first wave of Smugsters to SF.

I see. I arrived in 97. I'd sort of fell off of the turnip truck at the time with respect to knowing the area and people. Even though I was actually returning after 15 years having moved to Texas with my parents.

While we have more inventory coming onto the market it gets snatched up if there is even a hint of a price cut. Friends, family, and acquaintances get regularly outbid by all cash buyers who pay asking and reduce the contingency period to a few days. If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming.

mell says

If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming.

Did you mean, "If you think Bay Area housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming?"

This is a Fortress Bay Area thread now.
East Bay reporting in. Two bed/ one bath cottages still hanging in there with a median of around $1,000 /sq.ft.

B.A.C.A.H. says

mell says

If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming.

Did you mean, "If you think Bay Area housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming?"

Yeah, but it can be probably be expanded to a general assertion, as long as the area is not a shithole there will be bidders. Most of the places close by I was able to follow the new owners were almost always boomers or gen xers - if not professional flippers. Plenty of money sloshing around with the old generations.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yup.

That's the difference, mell. You and me live here. We know wtf we're talking about, whereas Wookie is as clueless about the facts on the ground in our state as he is about aviation.

Lol. It's coming. You're in stage 1... https://www.cruse.org.uk/understanding-grief/effects-of-grief/five-stages-of-grief/

Enjoy. I know plenty of Californians. Not just from this site. Your shit show has just started. I'm in the acceptance phase here in IL. You guys are clueless and in the denial phase. It will take a decade to get where I'm at. You'll see. Inflation will make it look pretty on paper. You'll be poorer. That's when the anger kicks in. https://youtu.be/9CZJbrw8mjE?si=J6EuuFQxFdzH6FGt Enjoy. Good tune.

mell says

"If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming."

My take is that higher interest rates are forcing sellers to lower the asking price. Historically this has always been the case.

I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.

GNL says

I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.

Is this national or a local market?

WookieMan says

Is this national or a local market?

Should be local. Look at a similar pattern for the his house, steep up and slight down
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/749-University-Ave-Los-Altos-CA-94022/19527079_zpid/

Blue says

WookieMan says

Is this national or a local market?

Should be local. Look at a similar pattern for the his house, steep up and slight down
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/749-University-Ave-Los-Altos-CA-94022/19527079_zpid/

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

There's a huge misconception in this country that is portrayed by the west coast and east coast. That house listed at $6M is shit. I'm not joking when I say it's maybe the worst designed house I've seen. Not hyperbolic, but I've been in well over 1k houses and apartments. That's a fucking $200k house at best. I may have puked a little looking at it. Shit, it may have given me AIDS. I'm sure the school district is top notch.... lol. Not dumping on you Blue, but that's just fucking crazy.

WookieMan says

I know plenty of Californians. Not just from this site. Your shit show

Ha ha ha

That's hilarious. Like being a frequent flyer makes one an aviation expert.

Are your plenty of Californians all white folks?

Whites are the second biggest ethnicity in California at 35% of the population. Even in my own household I am the only white person.

Silly Wookie. The Expert on Aviation and California.

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

The buyers will be Rich Folks. Billionaire Asians don't care if they can get a nice place in Illinois for $500K.

There's also some non-Asian new money rich folks who may pay those prices. Those are the types who may leave the state for lower taxes and better value. Good for them.

WookieMan says

That's a fucking $200k house at best.

I would not disagree. Factors including, local on top of state Regulations, 1978 Prop 13, Hi-Tech, Bio-Tech, foreign money etc. can pump up any useless shack to any number. Not sure if you have visited around, most expensive shacks are not really fancy inside IMHO. Those numbers goes to dirt and area exclusivity (not for thieves ;). Not for the real shack though!
Also, the school rating around are slipping down lately, it could be 1978 Prop 13 locking people, LGBTZ+, race theory what not in education etc.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming."

My take is that higher interest rates are forcing sellers to lower the asking price. Historically this has always been the case.

There are plenty of cash buyers and currently they don't even bid at a discount which is what I would do. The worst houses/location sit for a while right now until there's one or two price cuts then those sell as well. Never seen anything beyond 5-10% discount unless it's a very expensive house, i.e. 5-10 million dollar mansion

WookieMan says

GNL says

I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.

Is this national or a local market?

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

No doubt. Cali is braindead.

GNL says

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

I thought you were closer to DC. In my area, Williamsburg/JCC, the houses get snapped up fast. The only houses that have been a little slower to sell are in the gated communities, not sure why.

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30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

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