patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Probably waiting for lower rates I imagine.

I wonder how this company Open Door (stock ticker: OPEN) is faring and when will it go bust :

https://www.opendoor.com/homes/colorado-springs

Been hearing about a lot of layoffs recently like today's report of layoffs at John Deere, CNN and Intuit (i.e., Turbotax, etc).

How long before enough voters do not believe the economy is good ? The S&P 500 going up does not help this, as the investor class or Wall Street (not main street) reap the gains.
.

WookieMan says

Boomers didn't save and cannot afford their monstrous houses.

A family member age 75 lives in a home around $950,000 in Colorado on eastern side of Rocky Mountains and bordering a national forest. It cost total around $275,000 for the 5 acres land and to finish building the house in 2002.

They have a 1 bedroom garage apartment they rent for $1300 a month (which includes electricity, heating, internet, water, sewer) and their other source of income is $1300 a month from Social Security.

So I helped them secure a reverse mortgage at a rate of CMT + 1.25% margin + 0.5% FHA insurance. CMT is around 5% this year and tracks 1 year Treasury, so their rate this year should be around 6.75%.

Their closing costs are around $22,000 and the bank is willing to give them up to $400,000.

But they only need about $80,000 to pay off a HELOC at the prime rate, and maybe another $100,000 over the next 25 years to cover maintenance and repair, as well as increase in property insurance and property taxes.

.

https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024/

Rent Prices Are Dropping Across Florida’s Most Populous Metros

AD says

So I helped them secure a reverse mortgage

Gee, you mean grandma wouldn’t have been kicked out of her two million dollar 1940’s rambler in Solana Beach, and that there was no reason for Prop 13?

Boomers aren't the ones with a problem unless they need assisted care and hence move out. Our local expensive gym is full of boomers talking about their house projects and vacations while the youth is serving them towels. The boomers are mostly nicely set by cutting their taxes while they were young and now coasting on newly embraced socialism Marxism, fucking over their transgendering youth.

mell says

Boomers aren't the ones with a problem unless they need assisted care and hence move out. Our local expensive gym is full of boomers talking about their house projects and vacations while the youth is serving them towels. The boomers are mostly nicely set by cutting their taxes while they were young and now coasting on newly embraced socialism Marxism, fucking over their transgendering youth.

Money needs time to grow. You don't have to be a genius to have couple of mil by the time you are the boomers age. And there is nothing abnormal in not having much money when you're fresh out of school. It's just how money works.

RWSGFY says

mell says

Boomers aren't the ones with a problem unless they need assisted care and hence move out. Our local expensive gym is full of boomers talking about their house projects and vacations while the youth is serving them towels. The boomers are mostly nicely set by cutting their taxes while they were young and now coasting on newly embraced socialism Marxism, fucking over their transgendering youth.

Money needs time to grow. You don't have to be a genius to have couple of mil by the time you are the boomers age. And there is nothing abnormal in not having much money when you're fresh out of school. It's just how money works.

Sure but they cut taxes while they were in their prime to amass more money and now it's all about don't touch myh medicare! Tax the able! Fuck that. Medicare and to a lesser degree SS are the main reason this country is in high debt trouble, followed by money for illegals and welfare, then the mic. There are some rich Gen x ers who made good money with tech stocks but once you crossover to Y/Millenials it's looking bleak for them due to rampant inflation and high debt pressure. They don't make enough to invest much in the already inflated asset market. They would benefit greatly from deflation but they're not gonna get it, that's one reason the housing/rent market won't crash.

No more SS Withhold increase.

Also, no SS Age increase. Cut benefits for those collecting or about to collect.

Literally every single SS "Fix" was thrown on working adults. Let this one be on the retirees for once.

In fact, SS Withhold should be dropped to 10% maximum, including for self-employed.

mell says

Boomers aren't the ones with a problem unless they need assisted care and hence move out.

Maybe in wine country. Ain't that way across most of the country. Boomers are broke in most places. Government workers made out the best.

I like you guys here, but you need to realize that CA is NOT the rest of the country. Not by a long shot. Traveled all lower 48 multiple times over. East of the Rockies is just different and even more different east of the Mississippi. Colorado is the current outlier in that region.

Most boomers are on fixed income. A dismal 401k plan or pension. No actual wealth. My mom has $1M+ in the bank and a $90k/yr pension. She's extremely rare at 70 to have that cash and pension. All my parents friends are around that age. Some do well and 8/10 are broke. Just reality.

They have already started 'means testing' for medicare premiums under Social Security. It is a finger in the wind to see what they can get away with and should be the foundation for a class action suit against the government.

Of course, if they continue the trend in like Starmer, they will means test Social Security itself right down to just denying payments on a pro rata basis to certain groups, and, of course, turn down the spigot to some and turn it up to apparatchiks i.e. "We only have this much and it has to be divided unfairly to bribe those in our Great Decortication and Frontal Lobotomy Project."

Starmer already has sophistry in place virtue signaling his atrocities as some kind of bizarre fairness doctrine.

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024/

Rent Prices Are Dropping Across Florida’s Most Populous Metros

Yeah look at the townhome HOA's or communities on east side of Panama City Beach.

A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome is going for $2000 a month, and that is about what was charged 2 years ago.

The same townhome rented for $1500 back in 2017.
.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

AD says

So I helped them secure a reverse mortgage

Gee, you mean grandma wouldn’t have been kicked out of her two million dollar 1940’s rambler in Solana Beach, and that there was no reason for Prop 13?

Nah, it is a family member on the edge of Rocky Mountains in Colorado who saw their home value go from $250,000 in 2002 to around $900,000 in 2024, or about an annual appreciation rate of 6% compare to an average annual inflation rate of around 2.5%.

.

WookieMan says

Most boomers are on fixed income.

That means nothing, everybody is when they stop working. There is no reason for a boomer to be broke, just look at the house price appreciation. It's the same for the east coast. Pension and 401k plans just started getting slashed in the past 2 decades til now, and some may still be too high to be sustainable.

mell says

WookieMan says

Most boomers are on fixed income.

That means nothing, everybody is when they stop working. There is no reason for a boomer to be broke, just look at the house price appreciation. It's the same for the east coast. Pension and 401k plans just started getting slashed in the past 2 decades til now, and some may still be too high to be sustainable.

I understand the "pensions getting slashed", but what does "401k getting slashed" mean?

RWSGFY says

Money needs time to grow. You don't have to be a genius to have couple of mil by the time you are the boomers age. And there is nothing abnormal in not having much money when you're fresh out of school. It's just how money works.

Yeah that is why I put $4000 in Vanguard Healthcare Fund back in 1993 and never withdraw from that fund as of today.

Its about "time value of money" and hold-long-term in reliable or safe assets.

.mell says

There are some rich Gen x ers who made good money with tech stocks but once you crossover to Y/Millenials it's looking bleak for them due to rampant inflation and high debt pressure. They don't make enough to invest much in the already inflated asset market. They would benefit greatly from deflation but they're not gonna get it, that's one reason the housing/rent market won't crash.

We shall see when the Trump tax cuts expire next year. CPI is now down to 3% and PCE has remained below 3% since October 2023, yet short term rates like 1 year Treasury are not budging much.

All of this points to less inflation and I've noticed in my county that rents seem to be holding steady for last 2 years while household income has risen some.

Younger generation like 21 to 30 year old need to do side hustle like work gigs (i.e., online surveys) to earn an extra $250 a month which can go into their Roth IRAs and into a stable/reliable asset like Total Stock Market Fund.

.
.

RWSGFY says

mell says

WookieMan says

Most boomers are on fixed income.

That means nothing, everybody is when they stop working. There is no reason for a boomer to be broke, just look at the house price appreciation. It's the same for the east coast. Pension and 401k plans just started getting slashed in the past 2 decades til now, and some may still be too high to be sustainable.

I understand the "pensions getting slashed", but what does "401k getting slashed" mean?

They don’t have them. Go to Home Depot and look at the demographic. Same with restaurants. Boomers are broke for the bottom 90%. They have to work menial jobs to pay bills. I’m 41 and generally don’t work.

If someone can tell me how boomers are doing it right send me the notice. Ain’t seeing it.

WookieMan says

They don’t have them. Go to Home Depot and look at the demographic. Same with restaurants. Boomers are broke for the bottom 90%. They have to work menial jobs to pay bills. I’m 41 and generally don’t work.

If someone can tell me how boomers are doing it right send me the notice. Ain’t seeing it.

I see boomers working in Colorado and Florida panhandle at the Ace Hardware stores, Walmarts, etc.

I think maybe at most 30% of boomers are financially thriving, and those include my family member who has a $900,000 home (and now a reverse mortgage with a 1.25% margin rate and 0.5% FHA insurance rate), a $1300 monthly payment from Social Security, and has a net income or profit of about $500 a month from renting a garage apartment (for $1300 a month).

The rent for the garage apartment goes to property tax and insurance, utilities, and maintenance and repair for the entire real property on 5 acres.

.

WookieMan says

I like you guys here, but you need to realize that CA is NOT the rest of the country. Not by a long shot.

This is one of the best comments on Patnet. Where are all the California fluffers here to respond to this ?

.

Many boomers are desperately waiting to sell their "Haddonfield, IL" house for $500k to buy a townhouse somewhere cheaper.

The problem is: The buyers aren't there.

And Chinese or Colombian uber wealthy foreign buyers and wannabe AirBNB moguls aren't interested in Haddonfield, IL (or Woonsocket, RI or Erie, PA or Des Moines, IA)



This used to be owned by a corrections officer married to a P/T cashier wife. Or a divorced cop. Or a mechanic with a SAHM wife. Now it's 6-8x median household income ($300k+)

AD says

WookieMan says

I like you guys here, but you need to realize that CA is NOT the rest of the country. Not by a long shot.

This is one of the best comments on Patnet. Where are all the California fluffers here to respond to this ?

.

Interesting, I was going around DC area last month. While talking things different around in a group, one guy cut short and said, CA is not exactly US, like WookiMan said, discussions ended abruptly!

This house sold in 2018 for ~$260k, a few years before that in 2014 for $120k (probably a fixer upper that flipped). Then again a few years ago for ~$425k. Now they want $440k for it. This house doubled in price in less than a decade. Did salaries?

And you've got the infamous NJ Property Tax, which must be murder on a $400k+ house.

Edit: Almost $10k year in property tax, double from a decade ago.

If you made $70k/year, your property taxes alone before maintenance, insurance, mortgage payments, etc. would be around 15% of your gross income.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1111-River-Rd-Piscataway-NJ-08854/39151376_zpid/

Here's a "Haddonfield" equivalent house: $550k

This one doesn't look like a sale/transfer was done in the past 15-20 years, for a long while the assessment was about $110k. I'm guessing maybe early-mid 90s was the last purchase before this sale. Have wages/salaries gone up 450%-500% since the 90s?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/248-Westfield-Ave-Piscataway-NJ-08854/39150949_zpid/

WookieMan says

I understand the "pensions getting slashed", but what does "401k getting slashed" mean?

They don’t have them. Go to Home Depot and look at the demographic. Same with restaurants. Boomers are broke for the bottom 90%

But it means they never had them in the first place, not that "they are getting slashed".

.

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407/?propertyTypes=townhouse&bedrooms=3

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/71975/panama-city-beach-fl-32407/

.

Eric Holder says

But it means they never had them in the first place, not that "they are getting slashed".

Exactly. I'm a spoiled brat by choice. Wealthy parents. Coached my wife to have an amazing career. I get to sit on my ass. It's still work though. Carried the family the first 15 years and now it's her turn. She's got her network and makes bank.

Put this way, I have more in savings than probably any boomer on this site. NOTHING inherited. I make money happen. In a minor argument I was notified I haven't worked a full time job in 7 years. lol. She golfs and goes out to eat. High probability you've seen her on TV. We do well. Not bragging, but it just takes work. Burned 15 years of my life that I regret. I would have lived poor. It's great now. 41. No complaints from my end and she doesn't have any either.

This is why blacks go to crime. You need a man in your life. My wife would have been lost with any man she was interested in. All the chicks I wanted to fuck and they liked me are all mid 6 figure earners now. Most guys are deadbeats if you're being honest. On paper I am, but in reality I've provided the life we live.

AmericanKulak says

Hector the Mexican and Alice the $18/hr cashier single mom can't afford $450k for a 1800 sq ft ticky tack shack they don't need and can't buy.

A houseload of such hot-bunking hard-working adults living their American Dream pool their money and make it work to get a mortgage.

My neighborhood has many such folks That's why it's so difficult to find parking where I live.

B.A.C.A.H. says

A houseload of such hot-bunking hard-working adults living their American Dream pool their money and make it work to get a mortgage.

My neighborhood has many such folks That's why it's so difficult to find parking where I live.

So what third world shithole town in California do you live in ?

Yes, they over-occupy a house and do other things to make the neighborhood look like a third world shithole.

.

AD says

So what third world shithole town in California do you live in ?

Cool And Hip San Jose, in The Cool And Hip Silicon Valley USA.

AD says

make the neighborhood look like a third world shithole.

Ahem, make the neighborhood look like a third world a shithole.

AmericanKulak says

And you've got the infamous NJ Property Tax, which must be murder on a $400k+ house.

Before they all left Long Island or died out, this was a big freaking concern of my Long Island middle class homeowner relatives back in the 70's - 80's. The taxes were so high that it took a long time to sell a house.

The taxes on a new purchase are even more ridiculous here in the Bay Area. But so far at least we have no shortage of Greater Fools rushing to buy-in to the super high taxes that come with the "privilege" of being a Cool And Hip Bay Area Homeowner. Like that dude with the handle "BayArea" who used to post on this blog.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Before they all left Long Island or died out, this was a big freaking concern of my Long Island middle class homeowner relatives back in the 70's - 80's. The taxes were so high that it took a long time to sell a house.

Friends who still live there say there are now 5-6 story apartment buildings all along 25A and as far east as Wildwood Park.

The South Shore is worse... there are now big time M13 gangs and daily gang-related murders all over the Town of Babylon.

RWSGFY says

mell says

WookieMan says

Most boomers are on fixed income.

That means nothing, everybody is when they stop working. There is no reason for a boomer to be broke, just look at the house price appreciation. It's the same for the east coast. Pension and 401k plans just started getting slashed in the past 2 decades til now, and some may still be too high to be sustainable.

I understand the "pensions getting slashed", but what does "401k getting slashed" mean?

You are correct, I used it as a broader term for benefits. There are annuities, 401ks, pensions, sometimes employers match 401ks. Used to be the norm, not anymore. So matching got slashed, not the 401k itself.

B.A.C.A.H. says

AmericanKulak says

Hector the Mexican and Alice the $18/hr cashier single mom can't afford $450k for a 1800 sq ft ticky tack shack they don't need and can't buy.

A houseload of such hot-bunking hard-working adults living their American Dream pool their money and make it work to get a mortgage.

My neighborhood has many such folks That's why it's so difficult to find parking where I live.

Exactly. Back in the days a single earner would do, no over occupation. It's ridiculous to argue that today's avg wages have an even remotely similar buying power than the boomers.

@B.A.C.A.H. Around south east side, prices are rising at least in some pockets. I know someone sold for 2.7 and bought slightly up on the hill side for 3.7m cash (nvidia options)

AmericanKulak says

there are now big time M13 gangs and daily gang-related murders all over the Town of Babylon.

That's sad. I never lived there, but when I was a kid visited a lot.

I have lots of fond memories of times in The Village of Babylon and visiting folks in South Shore Communities, taking LIRR into NY, going by car to the Mets and Yankees.

One relative "escaped" to the North Shore (long since retired and "escaped" again to low-tax Tennessee).

I'm glad for the "Haddonfield" childhood I had. Those days are gone.

My grandparents lived a stone's throw from the Babylon HS and Public Library.

mell says

Exactly. Back in the days a single earner would do, no over occupation. It's ridiculous to argue that today's avg wages have an even remotely similar buying power than the boomers.

Aaron Clary (Fellow NY'er and Xer) has a great intro on this:
https://www.youtube.com/live/PYo2KrXm7eM?si=8elVbe4deIsanpp5&t=32

"I brought my first house for twenty five thousand dollars, I worked all year waiting tables at the dinner and saved every dime for the $5000 downpayment! You can pick yourself up by the bootstrapps, bucko!"

I had a taste of it, so no harsh feelings on my end for the Boomers, but to tell Zoomers this is more out of touch and out of date than lacing Hall and Oates drinks with LSD. 12-year old Kias with 100k Doordash miles are going for $10k, you don't even get a Guinea Gunboat or 70s Dart with a backseat big enough to have an orgy in the width of 3 rows of economy on Delta.

And those boomers who are like "$25? that's bullshit" my dad's first house, which last sold for $380k around 2000, he brought NEW for $40k in 1970. And Nassau County was one of the highest priced suburbs in the country then.

I remember visiting 1200 sq ft ranch modles in Sebastian, FL for $80k in the mid 90s when my dad was about to retire as a teen. New.

Based on internet search :

Median price of house in USA in 1975: $39,300
Median household income in USA in 1975: $11,800
Home price to income ratio in 1975: 3.3
Average 30 year mortgage rate: 9%

Median price of house in USA in 2024: $420,800
Median household income in USA in 2024: $77,345
Home price to income ratio in 2024: 5.4
Average 30 year mortgage rate: 7%

1970 was a census year.

The median house price in 1970 was $23,000
Source: https://www.huduser.gov/periodicals/ushmc/winter2001/histdat08.htm

The median income: $9,840 (I also saw $8,900 but also that the Census jerked around their metrics several times)
https://web.stanford.edu/class/polisci120a/immigration/Median%20Household%20Income.pdf

So a house was about 2.5x-3x the median income in 1970.

Did those median incomes in 1970 include a workforce that had college degrees (and attendant debt) to the extent the modern one does? .

What was the college tuition like at a State School in 1970 vs. 2020? Trade Schools? Weren't Public Schools providing Trade Education to HS Students for free in the 60s and 70s vs. today?

Most importantly, what was the demographic skew of the population in 1970 vs. 2020?

AmericanKulak says

Yep, from 300% of income to ~500+% of income.

If the ratio is 3 or less, then there is incentive to save a lot of money and make at least a 50% downpayment.

.

AD says

If the ratio is 3 or less, then there is incentive to save a lot of money and make at least a 50% downpayment.

Agreed.

Here's one question: What was the average age of a purchased house 30-40 years ago versus today. There are claims we didn't build enough, and claims we did. My hot take - not married to it - is that we built fine, but built the wrong kind. Wokies wanting multifamily 15 minute city shit and the Obamunist plan to move Sec 8 multfamily buildings smack dab into nice suburban neighborhoods, and Developers still thinking June and Ward Cleaver but on zero lots. When we needed modest 2-3 bed, 1.5-2 baths as the household size is smaller today with more single income households.

My area isn't a good metric because of Space Program. There's a shit ton of hasty 60s cinderblocks for Apollo and the USAF Missile Range, very little in the 70s, then a boatload of Yuppie Palaces in the 80s (Shuttle) including the Geometric Domed Moldy Monsters, then very little in the late 90s - 2010s as the Shuttle got clawed back then cancelled. Starting in the mid 2010s they built again, and MOAR started as COVID got going, but now those Condo and Zero Lot developers are going bananas trying to move them fast.

AmericanKulak says

What was the average age of a purchased house 30-40 years ago versus today. T

So much difference then and now as far as economy and demographics. Women are more employed now, for example.

.

AD says

So much difference then and now as far as economy and demographics. Women are more employed now, for example.

The life insurance purchasing is almost as low, regardless of income or dependent status, interestingly...