patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

West Coast of Florida getting creamed.

Opposite here in my town. 2 houses for sale. Price history included. This goes to show different locations have different trends.

I think coastal areas are going to take the beating on this one including TX. TN and ID will layer on top of it. I still don't see any downturn being all that bad.

I wonder if the coming storm will annoy housesellers already wanting out.

@AD It's supposedly going straight to Talahassee and will only brush the West Coast. Still, there will be rain and at least some flooding for sure

The largest insurer in Florida claims that a 93% rate increase is necessary
https://floridainsider.com/business/largest-florida-insurer-claims-that-a-93-rate-increase-is-needed/

Insurers use drone to cancel Florida homeowner's policy, citing his 6-year old roof
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-homeowner-dropped-insurer-over-105500151.html

Keeping in mind Florida property insurance is already much higher than the national average, in a state infamous for low wages, while housing prices approach expensive average East Coast Levels.

Percentage change in housing inventory (Q1 2023–Q1 2024): +34.7%
Total change in housing inventory (Q1 2023–Q1 2024): +36,837
Months’ supply (Q1 2024): 5.2
Months’ supply (Q1 2023): 3.8
Median sale price (Q1 2024): $409,448
Median sale price (Q1 2023): $393,866
https://www.kilgorenewsherald.com/florida-sees-the-nations-largest-increase-in-housing-inventory/article_78751b48-697e-5acc-bdb9-c243a64cd623.html

A much better indicator right now would be Median LIST price. Because in June, 56,000 sales contracts were cancelled, an all time record for any June in recorded history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oznLkWv6u4c

Blackrock and Wall Street abandoning the R/E Market in droves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g

AmericanKulak says

Keeping in mind Florida property insurance is already much higher than the national average, in a state infamous for low wages, while housing prices approach expensive average East Coast Levels.

So the bloom is off the Florida rose then? If it's not cheap to live in anymore, what's the point of suffering the heat, humidity and storms? At this point it's better to move to Indiana and just fly to the beach now and then Wookie-style.

AmericanKulak says

The largest insurer in Florida claims that a 93% rate increase is necessary
https://floridainsider.com/business/largest-florida-insurer-claims-that-a-93-rate-increase-is-needed/

Insurers use drone to cancel Florida homeowner's policy, citing his 6-year old roof
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-homeowner-dropped-insurer-over-105500151.html

Keeping in mind Florida property insurance is already much higher than the national average, in a state infamous for low wages, while housing prices approach expensive average East Coast Levels.

I have a friend that moved to Fort Myers right before Hurricane Ian. He bought a foreclosure and had to get the woman out of the home. He decided to forgo property insurance and got creamed. He is still going without property insurance. He’s on a canal in Fort Myers where even a rain storm makes his front lawn become a pond. Oh boy, I wonder if he’s gonna get creamed again.

GNL says

I have a friend that moved to Fort Myers right before Hurricane Ian. He bought a foreclosure and had to get the woman out of the home. He decided to forgo property insurance and got creamed. He is still going without property insurance. He’s on a canal in Fort Myers where even a rain storm makes his front lawn become a pond. Oh boy, I wonder if he’s gonna get creamed again.

Waterfront property is "disposable property." Way back in the day, the rich people would buy property on the highest hill to build. they'd have to rebuild it after the last Nor'Easter.

There's a reason why most coastal real estate was vacant except for summer shacks until after WWII and, more importantly, the hurricane windfall of nearly 20% non-callable 30-year Treasury bonds for the last 40 years was flush enough to backstop this profligacy. Now, Finally, insurance will cost what it REALLY costs, and the coastal mansions will disappear over the next generation.

FYI - It's a REALLY bad time to consider an actuary position.

Eric Holder says

So the bloom is off the Florida rose then? If it's not cheap to live in anymore, what's the point of suffering the heat, humidity and storms? At this point it's better to move to Indiana and just fly to the beach now and then Wookie-style.

Met a guy and gal from Oklahoma. Welder and LPN. She said they are leaving as soon as the lease is up after their first year here.

Wages are only $1 more in Florida for LPNs but actually LESS for Welders because Oklahoma has some oil and industry - but the cost of living from groceries to housing is much, much higher. They also experienced their first Florida summer.

Every Arkie-Oakie I've ever met are pretty cool people I must say.

Eric Holder says

At this point it's better to move to Indiana and just fly to the beach now and then Wookie-style.

For the win! So many cheaper places to live. Most people don't even take time off anyway. Usually a weekend trip. If you have off road vehicles you can go here in Indiana. https://www.badlandsoffroad.com/

Wisconsin has a massive trail system for summer and winter seasons for off roading and snowmobiling. Plenty of lakes to fish in summer or winter. Tons of good hunting opportunities if you're into that. For the midwest good skiing and snowboarding in a few spots.

IL is underrated because of Chicago Democrats. I will bitch about it, but 50-60+ miles outside of Chicago you can get solid houses for $150k, but still close to that airport to go to the beaches or where ever when you have a week or two off.

We're in a raffle for a $25k side by side. 500 tickets only. I think the wife got 3 tickets. Gambling and fundraising. No expectation of winning. My wife wins shit though. We're approaching 15 TV's. She wins them at work golf outings. We have three 50" or larger TV's in the boxes just sitting in our laundry room.

I get people don't like winter, but it's sooooooo much cheaper in the midwest. All my tech friends work from home, so location isn't a biggie. Still want to be within 60 miles of a decent airport. IL it's Chicago, Quad Cities and Peoria. There's St. Louis on the IL side but that airport is a shit hole of an armpit. Kansas city goes down as the shittiest airport. Saint Thomas is bad, but you get off the plane and you're in the Caribbean. Not much to complain about. Though they are upgrading it quite a bit. My wife just booked a vacation and I have no fucking clue where we're going. As long as there's a beach and drinks. Or mountains.

That's where I'm at now, with the oil patch kids in Oklahoma.. Property prices raised up in small town USA, but they had a much smaller starting base. Was in Tampa back in June/July for a month or so. Even with the humidity it was nicer than the Phoenix heat then. Didn't really look at property prices there 'cause the insurance whammy was just getting heard of along with the condo assessment thingy.,

I still think people have lost their minds when it comes to land prices in Phoenix. In Chandler (a suburb), land is going for $300k an acre for frigging desert.

Besides Florida, I haven't really seen any big amounts of properties being put up for sale.

Another month...another record high for the national housing market.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/us-home-prices-hit-yet-another-record-high/ar-AA1rc2ff

@stereotomy, tell me more about the hurricane windfall please.

GNL says

stereotomy, tell me more about the hurricane windfall please.

When Volker raised 30 year Treasury rates above 15% back in the early 80's in a desperate bid to it kill inflation, it set up a dynamic where insurance companies could buy high-yielding long bonds to finance their operations. As rates declined over the next 30 years, they reaped the double windfall of high yields and massive capital appreciation.

Now, they are stuck with low-yield paper bought during the ZIRP regime. They earn no interest and their bonds are all underwater now that interest rates are rising - they're doubly fucked.

AmericanKulak says

She said they are leaving as soon as the lease is up after their first year here.

Here's my Tale of Two Cousins

Sibling retirees from high-tax northeast retired on the West Coast of Florida in recent years.

Sibling #1 & spouse on fixed incomes public school teacher career pensions. Bought their forever home near Ft Meyers area. With a mortgage? I dunno, that's too personal for me to ask. Shared on social media hurricane photos battening down hatches. Fled back to N.E. to un-retire last year. Did they sell the Florida home? I didn't ask.

Sibling #2 affluent retired international arms merchant (no kidding). Cashed out of the appreciated N.E. home. Renting near sibling's (former) residence on Florida west coast. Enjoying not paying state income tax as a Floridian. Traveling the World with spouse. Life is good.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Traveling the World with spouse. Life is good.

I feel that I would have to be anchored in US RE, even if I didn’t live in it. Re-entry after world travel with ever appreciating prices could be problematic. It’s an asset class that you probably need in your portfolio.

stereotomy says

FYI - It's a REALLY bad time to consider an actuary position.

My kid is studying to be an actuary with a BS in computer science. What preparations should be done?

gabbar says

stereotomy says

FYI - It's a REALLY bad time to consider an actuary position.

My kid is studying to be an actuary with a BS in computer science. What preparations should be done?

I guess I'm wrong:

https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-2011.00

That website is awesome - now you know where the HR flunkies get their materials. Have your kid check it out - it's great for building resumes.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

YUP.

It'll be another quarter or two before stubborn homeloaners trying to sell really "get it". The smart money started getting out last year.

A million Chinese and South American millionaires don't want to buy Aunt Ethel's 3bed/2bath in the Villages

Can't speak for the nation but Florida went apeshit building apartment buildings during COVID, and all the builders had to post bonds for completion post-Financial Crisis by law. Those who think they'd rent them are now competing with brand new (USB straight in the wall) apartments for their used homes. Meanwhile, Snowbirds slammed with 5 and even 6 figure assessments and a doubling of condo fees are trying to dump or rent, too.

What did boomers think would happen when everybody retired in the same 5-10 year timeframe?

Just wait until they start taking money out their 401ks and IRAs after a few years due to inflation/medical bills. Tens of millions will all do it. What goes up because of people putting money away...

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

They can't apply for a loan in my area. There's nothing for sale. So of course loan applications would plummet from the super low interest rate times. That's the way I look at it. Also rates aren't that much lower.

Just had a broker do a CMA on my house yesterday. She walked through. She's a top agent in the area. Looking to get a price to give my mom to be fair to her. Story is the broker is generally a listing agent. She said there is nothing. And there's no prospects upcoming. This is the type of person that knows every home owner in town.

All our old people retired and moved or died already. IL is unique in that the exodus already happened a decade ago. I'm interested to see how NY and CA do. I think CO is in trouble too. The Boomers that ski will push it, but they're hitting the age where they'll die on the slopes or hiking. They're nearing move to the beach years and warmer weather like AZ. CO is certainly overpriced.

AmericanKulak says

Just wait until they start taking money out their 401ks and IRAs after a few years due to inflation/medical bills. Tens of millions will all do it. What goes up because of people putting money away...

I'm taking $40,000 out for the build. I'm in a unique situation (as usual). I'll have no income (on paper) this year. $0. So I'll pull some Roth gains tax free (seasoned 5 years) and 401k at 10% penalty. I'm guessing it will average out to 5-6% penalty and no federal taxes. Would be the penalty and if you toss it on my wife's income at the end it would be about 42%. I just have to file taxes differently. Getting my money out at this point in life is actually smart. Building a $630k home with well under the 3x's income rule.

I'll be blunt, cancer is a thing and it's hit every male on both sides of my family (my parents). Hoping to hit 70, but the odds aren't the greatest genetically. It's not like you can just work out and cancer doesn't happen. Just lost a friend at 47 to throat cancer. No smoking. There's really nothing you can do.

My wife and kids will have multiple houses. My mom and MIL both have hefty cash amounts. I personally expect nothing, but my kids will be taken care of and get extremely solid inheritances. My kids will likely get $200k each between in laws and my mom. Maybe $500k So in years I make no money I'm pulling it out before they change rules.

The other thing with boomers is those that could retire already have. 59-1/2 to pull from 401k. Early 60's for SS. Boomers are what 68-80ish? None of my parents friends work. If they still work it will be till death. So the selling of homes in most places won't pick up. Low inventory means lower loan applications. I think the boomer sell off already flashed by us.

Illinois pension debt is 270%, the worst in the nation, worse than California. 20% of Illinois budget goes to pensions as of today, right now.

The Illinois pension system is over 50% funded by the annual state budget, not from investments

The total pension underfunding is worse in Cali, but that's only because California has a lot more people.

AmericanKulak says

Illinois pension debt is 270%, the worst in the nation, worse than California. 20% of Illinois budget goes to pensions as of today, right now.

You're right. We lost population. You have to factor in Chicago though. I forget the acronym, but everything is funded just fine outside of Chicago. They have their own pension systems set up through unions and other bull shit. That's being honest. My mom's pension is 100% funded. She was a teacher in the suburbs.

IL is a tricky state to outsiders. Not a dig. Chicago fucks up our entire economics. We live in a town of 2,200 and my wife will make $400k. Property taxes are $3,300ish. Basically what I'm saying is Chicago fucks up the state. It's bad on paper, but those of us outside the city do just fine. Hence why there's no houses for sale where I live. They get bought in a day.

Chicago Police, Fire and Teachers are what makes that percentage so high. They didn't fully fund it for decades. It really is a lost cause. My two Chicago cop friends are out when they hit the earliest retirement age and work for a suburban department. I'd like to recruit them to my town. Would be great people.

IMRF is fully funded though in the state. It's why I say get out of cities and why Chicago is a shit hole. All cities are shit holes. Too much bribing and bull shit. Happens in small towns, but we're talking $100 and not $1M+

stereotomy says

I guess I'm wrong:

https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-2011.00

That website is awesome - now you know where the HR flunkies get their materials. Have your kid check it out - it's great for building resumes.

THANK YOU. I did forward the link. You are right, this site is a good resource for HR flunkies.
Also, he got an offer to intern as an aspiring actuary with an insurance company yesterday. Going to interview with a very top level investment company soon!

gabbar says

stereotomy says

I guess I'm wrong:

https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-2011.00

That website is awesome - now you know where the HR flunkies get their materials. Have your kid check it out - it's great for building resumes.

THANK YOU. I did forward the link. You are right, this site is a good resource for HR flunkies.
Also, he got an offer to intern as an aspiring with an insurance company yesterday. Going to interview with a very top level investment company soon!

Best of luck to your son!

AmericanKulak says

Just wait until they start taking money out their 401ks and IRAs after a few years due to inflation/medical bills. Tens of millions will all do it. What goes up because of people putting money away...

What they will try first is vote for more of medicare paying for all their shit, for whomever promises them they won't make them pay a dime, while pushing more and more debt onto the youth. The American youth is too stupid due to indoctrination atm but it will eventually wear off like in Germany, where the majority of first time voters vote for the AFD, i.e. no wars, no illegal immigrants and no more subsidizing the old at the cost of the youth/taxpayers. We need the same happening here. The other day I listened to a senior brag that he had 7 knee surgeries and didn't pay a dime out of pocket. Yeah, go home boomer.

mell says

I listened to a senior brag that he had 7 knee surgeries and didn't pay a dime out of pocket. Yeah, go home boomer.

He can't, he has a bum knee. Might need that free medical transportation.

HeadSet says

mell says

I listened to a senior brag that he had 7 knee surgeries and didn't pay a dime out of pocket. Yeah, go home boomer.

He can't, he has a bum knee. Might need that free medical transportation.

Haha well he was working out quite freely, so it was likely some sort of bionic replacement.

Speaking of houses, I hope @AD is okay after that hurricane blew through.

@AD definitely needs to check in when he can.

SoTex says

Speaking of houses, I hope AD is okay after that hurricane blew through.

Didn't he say he was leaving? My sister was in Orlando, a conference. I think it's more of a rain event than damaging winds. I don't really watch news so I'm talking blindly. Anything in the last 15-20 years should be able to manage a cat 3. Roofing not included. You shouldn't die is my point.

Probably no internet, cell phone or power would be my guess. I'd think he's fine.

Dunno, didn't notice anything except a gap in posts. I saw some drone footage that was pretty bad but it only covered 1-2 blocks away from the coast. He's 2 miles in so probably fine.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/30/economy/housing-market-home-sales-redfin-report/index.html

A new report illustrates just how stuck the housing market is

Just 2.5% of homes in the US changed hands this year in the first eight months, the lowest turnover rate in at least 30 years, according an analysis by Redfin.

The latest data from the real estate brokerage underscores just how much the housing market has stalled in 2024 as Americans faced a toxic combination of record-high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, creating one of the most unaffordable housing markets in a generation.

zzyzzx says

creating one of the most unaffordable housing markets in a generation.

It's always been unaffordable. Mortgages used to only be 7 years. Then 10. Then 15 - 20.

At the height of the Japanese bubble they were offering 100 year multigenerational mortgages. Ppl are making noises here about 40 year mortgages.

You don't 'own' a home with that. You are just a tenant with stronger rights than one under a lease-option.

You don't own it even if you pay it off. Because property tax. Fail to pay that long enough and see what happens.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

It's always been unaffordable. Mortgages used to only be 7 years

Back in the 1980's my grandma told me they got their Long Island house during the Great Depression on a 7 year mortgage.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Back in the 1980's my grandma told me they got their Long Island house during the Great Depression on a 7 year mortgage.

My great-grandparents got their house in the 40s on a 10 year. $5k house in San Francisco.

Who is the Replacement Coalition?

Sure leftists want more voters, and the usual suspects hate goys and whitey... but its more than that, why did it take off so aggressively after 2020?

Because the housing market rests on sand! Haitians don't do real work, they cost thousands a month... but what they do if you give them the money is they occupy housing. Then they'll displace the whites and producitve young people who have to bid up the housing that's left.

The core demographic of replacement migration, the people who have infinite time and money and would have resisted this to the point of bombings if it happened in the 70s, are all boomers who are willing to allow it just so long as their home price doesn't collapse and their retirement plans with it.

American children are being ethnically cleansed because boomers can't accept the house they bought for 50k is actually just worth 50k because they didn't have enough kids to make property values go up naturally.

They want their cruises and 800k in medical expenses that add negative 2 weeks to their life, and they'll gladly let their granddaughters be raped and eaten by Haitians to not have to face the fact they saved nothing and can't afford them.

2000 bombs went off in the US in 1972. The boomers are perfectly capable of resisting government policies they don't like up to and including violence... they just don't want the replacement to stop, otherwise their reversed mortgaged "million dollar" home is actually worth 50k and about 150k underwater.

https://substack.com/@anarchonomicon/note/c-69007715

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/03/here-come-the-vacant-homes-new-listings-jump-when-they-normally-drop-in-september-active-listings-pile-up-listing-prices-drop-below-2-years-ago-buyers-still-on-strike-prices-too-high/

Here Come the Vacant Homes: New Listings Jump when they Normally Drop in September, Active Listings Pile up, Listing Prices Drop below 2 Years Ago. Buyers on Strike, Prices too High