patrick.net

To save America, Choke and pummel asset prices like a Haitan does to a public park duck.

B-b-but, muh lower rates will keep my overinflated main asset from declining in price!





In it's attempt to stop asset prices from returning to normal, the Fed is now bringing back inflation in every other sector of the economy, like groceries.

Slowly getting better here. The 1962 1100sq ft Concrete Brick starter homes and 1982 Mfg Homes are no longer ~$300k. They've now fallen to about $250k. Still way too expensive at 5x median income (6-7x for Lower-than-national-average wage Florida).

However insurance and property taxes went up 30% these past few years. My Property Tax went up 10% last year and my condo fees 50% in the past 3 years, almost all of it was insurance. Cable, Water, Trash, etc. was only 2-3% increases.

That also means the decline in interest rates only impacts PART of the total PITI holding cost. So more cuts are needed.

Homeloaners, panic and cut more steeply!

The rural properties with a few acres and a mfg house are still ludicrous. $220k looks great, you figure you live cheap a few years then get a whole new mfg house.

Until you see the mildew covering 80% of the ceiling, the cabinets without doors, and raw plywood in parts of the house and realize you're going to be like the guy who found the Meteorite in Creep Show.

Just to cheer everybody up, here's a $1,689,000 asking price 1064 sq. ft. sugar shack in Santa Cruz. Westside, not even that close to the ocean.





https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Cruz/114-Kenneth-St-95060/home/2159868?riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD04MjY1OTE2NiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTgyNjU5MTY2XzE3MjgwMDcyOTFfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuNTM0NDE4NTIzMzExNjE1Jmxpc3RpbmdfaWQ9MTkyNjI0MDM3JnBvc2l0aW9uPTAmcHJvcGVydHlfaWQ9MjE1OTg2OCZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT05Jno9MA%3D%3D

AmericanKulak says

realize you're going to be like the guy who found the Meteorite in Creep Show.

That was Stephen King who was that guy.

Man, he's a goofy looking fucker.

https://creditnews.com/markets/a-record-percentage-of-americans-believe-now-is-a-bad-time-to-buy-a-home/

A record percentage of Americans believe now is a bad time to buy a home

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homes-lingering-on-market-longest-5-years/

Homes Are Lingering on the Market Longer Than They Have in 5 Years, Giving Buyers a Big Edge

AmericanKulak says

Man, he's a goofy looking fucker.

BTW, when you read or reflect on King's books with knowledge that he was is an SDS Leftwing Radical, you can easily see the oldest Hate - for White Working Class people.

Ceffer says

Westside, not even that close to the ocean.

GIVE GLOBULL WORMING SOME TIME AND IT WILL BE WATEFRONT!!! AND THEN IT QUADRUPLES!!!!

Blackrock and the others stopped buying many quarters ago.

AmericanKulak says

Blackrock and the others stopped buying many quarters ago.

Now they are even selling.

Florida housing needs to be listed at least 20% below its peak price set in June 2022.

I realize less people will be inclined to retire to Florida because of hurricane fears. However, they may end up moving further inland like +20 miles from the beach in towns such as The Villages, Deltona, Lakeland and Ocala.

Where we are in Panama City Beach, we are around 17 feet above sea level and about 2 miles from the beach. Worst case is high tide and category 5 that brings about 5 feet above ground where we are at based on GIS mapping and National Hurricane Center data.

Category 5 Hurricane Michael only had a storm surge of around 10 feet, but the Florida Panhandle beach roads (Thomas Drive, Front Beach Rd, 30A, etc) are at 10 feet above sea level.

Tourists are still going to come to Florida, so there will still need vacation housing/condos, hotels and motels, as well as housing (townhomes and apartments) for all the workers (from hotel front desk to car mechanics to urgent care clinic staff to restaurant cooks).

on my Facebook feed...it is DR Horton for Florida panhandle

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https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/08/florida-housing-market-buckles-listing-prices-sag-to-30-month-low-but-are-still-way-too-high-inventory-piles-up-institutional-investors-turn-into-net-sellers/

Google median home prices in Palm Beach County and Martin County.
The trend is still upward.
Or, realtor.com and just enter a county you're curious about.
Santa Cruz, CA median price is $1.4 million.
No wonder the locals are stressed out these days.

Home Prices Are Plummeting in Some of the Nation’s Most Desirable Places To Live—Especially in These 10 Cities

Why prices are decreasing

In Florida, which has four cities in the top 10, the downward shift in pricing comes after a major COVID-19 pandemic boom.

“Remote work trend certainly played a role, but I think many of the people that have come to Florida were more focused on the benefits of no state income tax as well as political ideologies,” says Robert Washington, owner of Savvy Buyers Realty in St. Petersburg, FL.

The influx of new residents drew builders to Florida who added inventory, which helped bring the median price down. (However, in cities such as Miami, median list prices are still 50% higher than before the pandemic.) It’s also worth noting this data was collected before Hurricanes Helene and Milton ripped through the state.

The downward trend in median list prices is happening on the national level, too, with home prices also falling in popular cities in the Midwest, the West, and the South.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/10-metros-home-prices-decreased-most

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https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/middle-class-new-homeowners-cost-burdened-house-poor-rcna163853

vacation rentals in places like Panama City Beach does not help this

...........................................

The share of middle-class Americans who are buying wallet-squeezing homes has more than doubled in the previous 10 years.

Almost 30% of middle-class homeowners bought homes with monthly payments costing more than 30% of their income in 2022, an NBC News analysis of Census Bureau data found. That’s more than twice the share from 2013, with experts warning it leaves many households with less money for groceries and emergencies and less able to get ahead in the future.

That “cost-burdened” benchmark — in which a household devotes over 30% of income to housing costs — is a widely used measure of affordability for both homeownership and renting. The Census Bureau measures housing costs against it, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development has used it for decades.

The Buyer's strike is on!

Inventory skyrocketing, completed transactions plummeting, stalling across the nation. The biggest COVID markets are the first to start the collapse.

Rates, Schmates. It's the underlying price that's too DAMN high.



Knock inflated Assets to the ground!

As I said, the fun really begins a quarter or so after the first rate cut. That's when reality bites the homeloaner's prized paper puffed up asset.

AmericanKulak says

The Buyer's strike is on!

Inventory skyrocketing, completed transactions plummeting, stalling across the nation. The biggest COVID markets are the first to start the collapse.

Rates, Schmates. It's the underlying price that's too DAMN high.



Knock inflated Assets to the ground!

As I said, the fun really begins a quarter or so after the first rate cut. That's when reality bites the homeloaner's prized paper puffed up asset.

Wonder how this will effect Canadian and Western US R/E markets.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Wonder how this will effect Canadian and Western US R/E markets.

Not sure how many Chinese nationals own +$1 million dollar homes in the USA especially California, but I have read that a lot of the multimillion dollar residential real estate in British Columbia is owned by foreign citizens.

So the Chicoms are taxing its rich citizens' realized gains of recent home sales in the USA and Canada ?

.

The Millions of Chinese Millionaires are going to buy my Western Broward County 1970s 3/2 townhouse with the Pizza Hut roof in the burbs for a bazzilion!

Buy now or be locked out forever!

We got a clear head and shoulders, get ready for the big drop by next summer.

According to the Raw Zillow Listing, even San Diego and Miami saw drops last month.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/15/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-sept-update-prices-drop-in-26-of-28-big-metros-even-san-diego-los-angeles/

Controversial Opinion: House prices are back to normal when they drop to about 2016 prices, or ~30%

AmericanKulak says

Western Broward County 1970s 3/2 townhouse

sounds like The Everglades is your backyard

.

AD says

sounds like The Everglades is your backyard

Not mine thank goodness, Broward sucks ass, but I do remember when they went for a reasonable sum. Here's an example of "Pizza Hut" roofed townhouse. Probably went for way under $200k just a few years ago. This neighborhood is full of low-level Broward County employees -Trayvon Martin's mom type people,etc:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1518-NW-90th-Way-1518-Pembroke-Pines-FL-33024/43276443_zpid/

Shit, my ex-sister in law brought a modest house built in the early 2000s for $160k sometime around 2015. Just east of Orlando Airport. They're going for $360-$420 now, zero lot 3/2, ~1300 sq ft.

Absolutely ludicrous.

AmericanKulak says

Broward sucks ass, but I do remember when they went for a reasonable sum. Here's an example of "Pizza Hut" roofed townhouse. Probably went for way under $200k just a few years ago. This neighborhood is full of low-level Broward County employees -Trayvon Martin's mom type people,etc:

It has a terrible design for a roof in Florida given the risks of high winds.

But if they put a George Zimmerman in charge of the HOA there and drop the asking price from $300,000 to $175,000 then I would consider it a good value.

For $260,000 to $300,000 you can get a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in Panama City Beach that was built in 2015 or later, and its only about a 1.75 mile walk to the beach.

.

AD says

But if they put a George Zimmerman in charge of the HOA there and drop the asking price from $300,000 to $175,000 then I would consider it a good value.

Yeah, $175k would be fine.

But the asking is outrageous. I do notice the $15k price cut.

Another sugar shack gem in Santa Cruz to cheer everybody up. Looks like it needs a roof rack for the golf clubs.

More cheer. Another California Dreamin' Beach Ass Reamin'. Cutsie Wootsie in California gonna cost you dear. Too many oligarchs, not enough beach.

Square footage goes up as you move away from the beach, but it looks like peak market chasing old prices to lure suckers or the institutional behemoths. There are a lot of price cuts already with wailing and gnashing of teeth from the speculators.

Ceffer says

More cheer. Another California Dreamin' Beach Ass Reamin'. Cutsie Wootsie in California gonna cost you dear. Too many oligarchs, not enough beach.

Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits.... 1 bath? WTF. By default for me that house is technically unusable with 1 bath. 1 shower. I'd rather live on a bus at that point and swim in a clear water lake to clean myself or get a decked out RV for $300-400k and skip the insurance and taxes.

WookieMan says

Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits..

Beachfront mobile home lot rents (not including HOA fees) exceed $5k a month (could be higher, that was 2 years ago).

Seniors Reamed on Rent Increases De Anza Mobile Home pdf

This Santa Cruz gem sugar shack is actually in a meth ridden crime area on west side, not that close to the beach, but in the UCSC university real estate corridor elevating its price (you'll always have a top dollar tenant(s)).

Ceffer says

WookieMan says

Lol. $130-140k per year for PITI likely. What a joke. I take 20 minute shits..

Beachfront mobile home lot rents (not including HOA fees) exceed $5k a month (could be higher, that was 2 years ago).

Seniors Reamed on Rent Increases De Anza Mobile Home pdf

Jesus. And that's not even a nice beach. I don't know how you cats do it out there. I'll eventually post pictures of my house when it's built. It will be 20% less and 3-4x's the size on almost an acre.