patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

From about 1870-1910, inflation in the US was minimal despite a boom in industrial capacity, population, etc.

Boom? Weren't 1873-79 years of so-called "Long Depression"? Then there was the Panic of 1893 which kicked off another depression lasting until 1897-ish. This can explain the lack of inflation.

SoTex says

Taxes on a 500K house in San Antonio is nearly 12K. In the county. It's a lot worse in the city limits.

Mine will be about $16,000 out the gate after a $650k build. I'll appeal. I'll get it down to $12k. Just gotta do the work. I might get it lower. Networking. Got to know the right people and I know everyone in my region that can help me. Also being an ass hole when needed helps out. I thrive in that environment.

WookieMan says

Ultimately you need to move if they're bumping annual tax payments $2k. That's not normal at all unless in a $2-3M neighborhood in almost any state.

Oh yeah?
Here is where the `the taxes went up $1,131 per six months or $2262 per year:


On a house assessed at just over $1 million.



Now imagine comic Sam Kinison leaning over you as you sit close to the stage - "Taxes went up $2,000 from the last two years. But do you know what taxes will do in two more years if inflation is not under control? Do you? Huh? Do you? Huh? THERE GONNA GO UP ANOTHER TWO THOUSAND!!!"

HeadSet says

Oh yeah?
Here is where the `the taxes went up $1,131 per six months or $2262 per year:

That's not normal. Can you verify if there was a referendum? Most people fall asleep at the wheel in non-POTUS election cycles. The school probably had a referendum on the ballot in the spring likely.

This is why local politics far outweigh national politics. Your local school district is likely getting a building expansion with a bunch of useless shit.

Well, they must somehow offset the lack of SIT, so there you go.

WookieMan says

HeadSet says

Oh yeah?
Here is where the `the taxes went up $1,131 per six months or $2262 per year:

That's not normal. Can you verify if there was a referendum? Most people fall asleep at the wheel in non-POTUS election cycles. The school probably had a referendum on the ballot in the spring likely.

This is why local politics far outweigh national politics. Your local school district is likely getting a building expansion with a bunch of useless shit.

This is why we had a tax revolt resulting in passing of Prop13.

WookieMan says

Can you verify if there was a referendum?

No, remember that the taxes went up because the assessments went up (the mil rate actually decreased by a penny). This change was caused by inflation alone.

WookieMan says

SoTex says

Taxes on a 500K house in San Antonio is nearly 12K. In the county. It's a lot worse in the city limits.

Mine will be about $16,000 out the gate after a $650k build

Well, my $2k increase does not seem bad at all compared to that. At least Texas has no state income tax.

HeadSet says

Well, my $2k increase does not seem bad at all compared to that. At least Texas has no state income tax.

Yeah, Texas is one of the worst property tax states but no income tax. Older folks can freeze rate increases with some type of exception, I forgot what it's called. Homestead something something. So that helps some oldsters from getting thrown out on the street. But it's still BS if you ask me to tax people's homes. Rentals I could see maybe but not basic homeowners.

Each of my rentals went up about 2K over the past couple of years, similar to your situation.

So far, all is proceeding as I have forseen...

SoTex says

Yeah, Texas is one of the worst property tax states but no income tax. Older folks can freeze rate increases with some type of exception, I forgot what it's called. Homestead something something. So that helps some oldsters from getting thrown out on the street. But it's still BS if you ask me to tax people's homes. Rentals I could see maybe but not basic homeowners.

Each of my rentals went up about 2K over the past couple of years, similar to your situation.

You don't have kids I presume? That's 80% of property taxes. Senior exemption is an attempt to take it easy on those that for sure don't have school aged kids. It's not like they care about you being old, but they know you're not sending kids to school.

Outside of CA, most income state taxes are fine, from 0-5%. It's not that much money as it doesn't kick in right away in almost any state I know of. I'm going to eat a bear shit this year though. We overpay but shit, we're in the wheelhouse of big spenders, the amount we get taxed is retarded.

If the income tax went away I could employ 2-3 people no problem. Partially. I'd stop mowing my own lawn and hire someone. House cleaner. Other chores I do that I have no interest in doing. Clearing the driveway in the winter. Small projects around the house.

My wife employs 20 people in just her region. $80k/yr jobs working on roads. 3 months off. Let us spend our fucking money and don't take it from us. At least federally.

The effect of ending the federal income tax would be the same as the government printing a bunch of money and spending it...INFLATION. That's all that would happen. Adding $$ doesn't add supply. If we want America to prosper, we need more supply of more things. It's as simple as that.

The easiest way to get rich is to own assets and/or means of production and then being able to limit the supply. Just sit back and watch things go up up up.

AmericanKulak says

So far, all is proceeding as I have forseen...

...but not according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

AmericanKulak says

So far, all is proceeding as I have forseen...

...but not according to the Housing Experts of PatNet.

You cats live in dip shit areas that haven't been burned yet. It's coming. The exodus is coming. We already went through it and are having a building boom. The people that stayed, did so. No one built and now they are. Took us about 15 years at this point. You guys are year 5 best case. The path is not pleasant. You have a decade before you realize how fucked you are.

WookieMan says

The path is not pleasant. You have a decade before you realize how fucked you are.

Wookie, please clarify and expand. What do you mean about "dip shit areas" and "year 5" ? ? ?

.

AD says

Wookie, please clarify and expand. What do you mean about "dip shit areas" and "year 5" ? ? ?

CA specifically. People keep saying "foreign buyers" will keep the market afloat. Prop 13 and people won't sell.

People are moving out of CA. They did it in IL and it was a 15 year process. CA is in year 5. I think TX and FL are just at the start. FL more boomers dying and those not filling in the vacancies. I think NY is dying as well. Not sure what year they're in. I think CO might die too. You can't move there into the mountains, which is 80% the reason most people move there for.

What I'm saying is there's a lot of migration in the country. You can work anywhere and make the same amount of money. The dip shit areas are where the states that are oppressive, those people move to them. Think Boise, Austin, Nashville. The prices will crash in those places at some point.

WookieMan says

You can work anywhere and make the same amount of money.

I can't.

Lawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Folks who expected that mortgages rates would decline when the Federal Reserve began cutting its federal funds rate target range have been dazed and confused over the last month and a half. Since the day before the Fed’s 50 bp reduction in its funds rate target on September 18, 30-year MBS yields have surged by 84 to 96 bp, while mortgage rates have jumped by 72 to 89 bp. At the same time intermediate- and longer-term Treasury yields have risen 53 to 67 bp.

There are two main reasons MBS and mortgage rates have risen by more than Treasury rates over this period. First, implied interest rate volatility has surged, as many market participants were caught off-guard by the string of unexpectedly strong economic releases (and slightly higher inflation releases) following the Fed’s rate decision. For example, the BofAML MOVE index, a measure if implied interest rate volatility derived from one-month options on Treasuries across the yield curve, increased from 101.58 on September 17 to 130.92 on October 28, its highest reading since October 30, 2023. (Mortgage investors effectively write a prepayment option to home borrowers, and as such higher implied interest rate volatility increases the premium over Treasuries that investors require to compensate them for prepayment risk.)

And second, MBS option-adjusted spreads, which were at the low-end of the “no Fed MBS intervention” range just prior to the Fed’s action, have since moved higher.

Based on an assessment of various measures, my best is that the neutral real interest rate in the US is between 1 ¾% to 2%. One of course needs to add inflation/inflation expectations to that range. If/when the Fed were to achieve its 2% inflation target, then the neutral nominal interest rate would be 3 ¾% to 4%.

Factor in a normal yield curve (longer rates higher than short rates), and a more normal spread from the 10-year yield to 30-year mortgage rates, and you can see why there is a new normal range for 30-year mortgages.

See from June 2023: Could 6% to 7% 30-Year Mortgage Rates be the "New Normal"? and an update in August 2023: The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-mortgage-rates-have-surged

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak

It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the August Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $433,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.

Nominal House Prices

The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index (SA) are both at all times highs. Both indexes increased in June.

Real House Prices

The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 1.6% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes increased in August in real terms.

It has now been 27 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory). There is nothing magic about “7 years”, it just made a good post title! Here is an update to the graph I included in that article:

In real terms, national house prices are 11.1% above the bubble peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 18 years since the previous peak, but real prices are historically high.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-15-729

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1gg3k7r/looking_for_encouragement/

Bought a house in late 2021 for $365k, harder in conversations with realtors we will be lucky to sell our house between $345-$375k according to comps.

We need to move so badly to get back near family but can’t fathom taking that kind of financial hit.

I don’t want to lose money on our first house, we don’t need the funds to move but it would make a sizable difference to help with moving costs and our next down payment.

This is seriously depressing that everyone’s value has increased and ours has flatlined or fallen off the cliff. I’m so stressed and really need some words of encouragement.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1gg3k7r/looking_for_encouragement/

Bought a house in late 2021 for $365k, harder in conversations with realtors we will be lucky to sell our house between $345-$375k according to comps.

We need to move so badly to get back near family but can’t fathom taking that kind of financial hit.

I don’t want to lose money on our first house, we don’t need the funds to move but it would make a sizable difference to help with moving costs and our next down payment.

This is seriously depressing that everyone’s value has increased and ours has flatlined or fallen off the cliff. I’m so stressed and really need some words of encouragement.

Yeah, at best you can break even if they bought the home in late 2021 to early 2022, unless the 30 Year mortgage rate drops to 5.5% or lower.

Also if possible, have the buyer assume the low rate mortgage. Another incentive to buyer is to offer to pay up to 4 discount points so that would lower the mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.

.

Rates aren't going anywhere until prices drop is the reality. If there's no inventory and houses are still selling, why would a bank drop the rate? Banks borrow lower and won't drop rates until it messes with the bottom line and there's a flood of inventory. Both don't seem to be on the horizon.

zzyzzx says

Bought a house in late 2021 for $365k, harder in conversations with realtors we will be lucky to sell our house between $345-$375k according to comps.

Why don't they rent it out for now?

GNL says

The effect of ending the federal income tax would be the same as the government printing a bunch of money and spending it...INFLATION. That's all that would happen. Adding $$ doesn't add supply. If we want America to prosper, we need more supply of more things. It's as simple as that.

And a big fat beautiful tariff - charging foreigners extra for a space at our big shopping mall so that they end up insourcing or making it mostly here - is the way to do that.

The All-American, Founding Father approved tariff. A modest 20% - not the 32% we had historically - is a great start.

.

Now selling for $331,000 which was close to "peak price or all time high price" set in early 2022: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1741-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121153821_zpid/

It was bought by a Sweethome Properties LLC for $217,900 within the last couple of months through a foreclosure process.

Sweethome Properties, LLC
1280 ITHACA DR
Boulder, CO 80305
Contact: Baljinder Kaur
Title: Principal
Phone: (208) 585-1135
Website:
Sweethome Properties, LLC is the only company located at 1280 ITHACA DR, Boulder, CO 80305

.

AD says

Now selling for $331,000 which was close to "peak price or all time high price" set in early 2022: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1741-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121153821_zpid/

It was bought by a Sweethome Properties LLC for $217,900 within the last couple of months through a foreclosure process.

when the Patel's, Singh's and Gupta's come in as real estate investors then to me that means the market is at bottom

this is just a compliment to them as far as knowing the right time to buy as a real estate flipper and then sell

.

Ford's disastrous earnings. Lost over a billion on EVs. Ford Trucks getting lot rot as many are sitting for 2x the median income. Earl can't afford that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HwDvt2eoJc

Big Multinats are losing their pricing power. Mortgage rates skyrocketing.

Let's keep it going. Trump should set Fed Home Loans BACK to 15 or 20 years, with 30 years only possible for well qualified buyers with at least $500k in income.

Make America Low Debt Again

.

The Wolfman has a good article about housing prices : https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/08/with-home-prices-way-too-high-more-and-more-people-profit-from-arbitraging-the-vast-cost-difference-between-renting-and-buying/

The way I figure for our townhome, the peak market price was set in early 2022 at $330,000 with a 3% rate for 30 year mortgage. We bought it in 2016 for around $185,000.

Based on a 10% drop in price for a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate, the market price of our townhome should be 60% of $330,000, which is $198,000.

However, household income in our town has gone up about 25% since early 2022, so the market price would adjusted by 1.25 times $198,000, which is $247,500

Also our townhome going up about 4% a year in value, would mean the price should be $253,185.

Home prices historically have increased 4% a year on average based on research by Professor Robert Shiller.

,

AmericanKulak says

Ford Trucks getting lot rot as many are sitting for 2x the median income. Earl can't afford that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HwDvt2eoJc

Big Multinats are losing their pricing power. Mortgage rates skyrocketing.

Let's keep it going. Trump should set Fed Home Loans BACK to 15 or 20 years, with 30 years only possible for well qualified buyers with at least $500k in income.

Make America Low Debt Again

I'm hoping worst case is that home prices stay steady or drop no more than 20% from peak while there are real annual gains in household income. That would carefully let the air out of the housing bubble.

No one can afford those F-150 trucks, and I'm looking at the Ford Maverick which is somewhat affordable.

Check out Invitation Homes stock price as its only about 7% above is 2019 price; granted it has a 3.3% annual dividend yield.

I'm not sure why the mortgage market is setting the 30 yr rate at ~7%.

I thought its pegged to ~1.5% above the 10 Yr Treasury, which is 4.3%; hence the 30 Yr mortgage rate should be 5.8%.

.

What's happening is that Japan and China are selling massive amounts of treasuries to shore up their currencies. The selling is of such an extent that it is pushing up Treasury Yields. Mortgages are just less liquid than Treasuries and price accordingly.

There is also the crowding out effect. Whereby, the current federal deficit spending is crowding out the ability for other market actors' debt to be sold at historical prices. (I still dunno why corporate spreads are so fucking tight except maybe that individual investors are crowding the space).

Misc says

There is also the crowding out effect.

Time to stop quantitative tightening (QT). Maybe even if the Fed adds to its balance sheet at a relatively lower rate by buying mortgage backed securities, that should help reduce the 30 Year mortgage rate down to 6%.

If I was buying a home, I'd buy 4 discount points to lower the mortgage rate from 6% to 5%.

.

The Fed has caused all kinds of problems with their hyper-active QE during the Covid scare. The Feds balance sheet is about $1 trillion negative value if they marked it to market. (The larger banks are sitting on losses of what ??? say $800 billion if they had to sell their long term treasuries and MBS). The Fed is now printing money to cover its negative cash flow instead of its usual ability of sending interest it collects to the Treasury.

We need more construction of residential units to alleviate the housing inflation, but that ain't gonna happen until the Fed QE's the mortgage market. The Fed based on its ivory tower thinking believes doing this will cause more inflation.

I have faith that Trump will prevail against this and will lower rates bigly.

.AD says

I'm not sure why the mortgage market is setting the 30 yr rate at ~7%.

Bond Vigilantes don't believe inflation is under control

AD says

Home prices historically have increased 4% a year on average based on research by Professor Robert Shiller.

Before or after inflation? 30-50% gainz in a short period are always unsustainable fake roids, either in the gym or in the housing market.

The great thing about his Index is that big jumps and crashes are directly attributable to Fed Policy. It appears the MBS buyers take the opposite view of the 50bp rate cut.

AmericanKulak says

AD says

Home prices historically have increased 4% a year on average based on research by Professor Robert Shiller.

Before or after inflation? 30-50% gainz in a short period are always unsustainable fake roids, either in the gym or in the housing market.

I think its 4% a year over a long timeline like +20 years. Its not inflation adjusted , its before inflation.

.

Homeloaners are tempted to believe that ther modest post-inflation growth they were used to experiencing (say late 70s-late 90s getting a 9% post-inflation gain) was "finally correcting itself" to the "true" price by shooting up (90s-late 2000s, also mid 2010s-2020), which must be the true price because it makes them a winner. "Har, har, I was smart and brought tick tack shack and my investment is finally paying off."

In reality, 1-2%/YoY after inflation is the reasonable amount (not factoring in costly repairs like new roofs or replacing HVAC systems or major landscaping)

Another thing as to "Why now is different" is that Insurance and Property Taxes are skyrocketing from Florida to Texas to Arizona to even Kansas (where no massive growth can be attributed, nor any recent major disasters). It's becoming more and more expensive to own a home.

I suspect Insurance Companies are losing their shirt on commercial real estate post-COVID and the premium padding is not about hurricanes (which were below average frequency and strength over more than a decade) but due to underperforming office and retail space.

It's never been a better time to rent.

AD says

I think its 4% a year over a long timeline like +20 years. Its not inflation adjusted , its before inflation.

You may want to rethink that statement. Home prices going up when all else is equal is strictly due to inflation.

AmericanKulak says

to Texas to Arizona to even Kansas (where no massive growth can be attributed, nor any recent major disasters)

I've replaced two roofs in the past 5 years in San Antonio due to hail damage. And I'm one of the lucky ones. The entire region has had unusual hail (or seems to be anyway from what I've read) over the past decade.

It's been a killer for insurance companies.