patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

How did car companies overproduce expensive vehicles no one wants? Probably misreading the market

Just like the housing market, the automakers will always satisfy the most profitable portion of the marketplace first during a time of shortage. Now that shortages are over, in theory, you should see more affordable new car options become available. But auto manufacturing has a long lead time, so it's going to take a while. Plus auto manufacturers have always hated their clientele that buys the lower priced vehicles, so they are in no hurry to accommodate.

The more puzzling thing is that the one thing automakers haven't done yet, that they should have done already is to bring back lower trim levels. That I think is something that they can do in a short period time.

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https://nypost.com/2024/11/12/real-estate/floridas-crumbling-home-prices-havent-been-this-bad-since-2011/

I figure for every 1% increase in the 30 Yr mortgage rate, there should be a drop of 10% in prices. So just on that, prices should be 40% below there early 2022 levels.

Factoring in that household income has risen about 20% since early 2022, then home prices should be about 20 to 25% below early 2022 levels.

Our townhome about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle had a peak value of around $330,000 in early 2022. So it should be around $264,000.

We bought it for around $187,000 in 2016, so it would appreciate 4.25% annually to around $264,000.

Everything "returns to the mean" when figuring home prices historically increase about 4% a year.

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WookieMan says

Where in the fuck do you buy a car with that interest rate? Even used. That's a 590 credit score if getting a loan. Have never been over 8% in my lifetime and always buy used. That's just shitty credit. I have current collections (medical) and my score is still 700.

Wild, right?

This is several months out of date, but they list the average rate for a used for Prime (~680) credit as 9.3%

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/auto-loans/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score

Shouldn't be a shock. Rate Hawks are demanding a higher ROI despite the Fed Cuts because they don't think inflation is whipped.

Again, when you look at leases and the financing for new vehicles, buying used at the outrageous prices they're asking is absurd. It used to be 100 miles off the lot and a third of the value was gone. Because of COVID and exporting low mileage used vehicles abroad, now 50k mileage, 5 year old vehicles have an ask of only 30-40% below (today's!) new.

Another one.


It's the same chart, but still out of date:


https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score/

Imagine paying over $500mo. for a used car that isn't a collectible or a super high end or specialty vehicle.

If you figure the mean credit score (think Single Moms and Millennial hoebags with massive college and Ulta Beauty credit cards) is about 640-650, 11% sounds right.

The Car Market is going to be wild.

Fortunately my lease isn't up until March. I think I might just get another lease on a lower end vehicle since I don't want to be a bagholder in case the prices don't really collapse until next summer or beyond.

AmericanKulak says

https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score/

Imagine paying over $500mo. for a used car that isn't a collectible or a super high end or specialty vehicle.

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Never seen a car dealership that busy as we had to wait to see a sales rep.

AD says

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Does it have CVT? If yes, consider changing transmission fluid at every 30 to 40k miles.

AmericanKulak says

Fortunately my lease isn't up until March. I think I might just get another lease on a lower end vehicle since I don't want to be a bagholder in case the prices don't really collapse until next summer or beyond.

There might be some incentives during the post-Christmas to end-of-February slow season. I bought both my two current vehicles during that annual calendar window.

gabbar says

AD says

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Does it have CVT? If yes, consider changing transmission fluid at every 30 to 40k miles.

I read it does have a CVT. It has about 22,000 miles. I was originally planning on 50,000 miles transmission fluid change, but need to research this more.

Thanks for your post.


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Braman Honda in Miami says to change it around 90,000 miles.



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Big discounts inbound

AmericanKulak says

Big discounts inbound

Does this mean I'll get a good deal on a Citroën?

Shit. Current ones don't even look like the ones from the 70s and 80s.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Does this mean I'll get a good deal on a Citroën?

Jeep, Dodge/Ram... not good. Turns out the market for $70k+ Trucks and Jeeps isn't doing well right now.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1326-Bird-Ave-San-Jose-CA-95125/19683819_zpid/
Got some anecdotal evidence that south bay area ca market is slow which is good news in general. Sometimes seeing steep reductions in prices, not really sure if that would be real or tricking customers to get in. I know someone in east bay having hard time to sell their SFH.

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scroll down and you will see 7 month supply of homes for sale for Central Panhandle of Florida

https://www.cpar.us/main/cpar-real-estate-market-reports/

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Adam Taggart (Thoughtful Money channel) is one of the best finance and investing commentators, along with MishTalk and the Wolfman (WolfStreet).

Where is Logan at Housing Wire ? Read this, and I agree as housing needs to at least drop 20% below peak level set in early 2022.

For our townhome, if its value drops 20% from peak level in early 2022, then that means our home would appreciate 4% annually from 2016 (year of purchase) to mid-2025.

Meanwhile, household income locally in the Florida panhandle has increased at least 15% from early 2022 to present day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-11-19/big-drop-home-prices-coming-next-year-melody-wright

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not looking good for Florida residential real estate :-/

https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/home-sales-in-tampa-fall-amid-hurricane-recovery-insurance-rate-increases/

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https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1702-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87637913_zpid/

this place has been on the rental market for over 100 days and still vacant and is about 2 miles from the beach

its listed for rent nearly at the same asking price back in January 2020 :-/

for townhome communities like this, usually 30 to 45% of the townhome units are rented (i.e., owned by landlord investors)

if rents stay down, that means landlord investors will pay less for townhomes in order to achieve a minimum capitalization (or "cap") rate :-/

most of the landlord investors I talk with depend on the townhome value going up about 3 % annually and they want a minimum cap rate of 4.5 % ; they hire a management company which charges about 10% of lease cost as part of maintaining the minimum cap rate

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AD says

I was originally planning on 50,000 miles transmission fluid change, but need to research this more.

90k miles is dangerous but they want you to buy autos more frequently. Less than 50k should be preferred.

gabbar says

AD says

I was originally planning on 50,000 miles transmission fluid change, but need to research this more.

90k miles is dangerous but they want you to buy autos more frequently. Less than 50k should be preferred.

You could take samples of the transmission fluid every 3 oil changes and have them analyzed just to be sure? That way you catch any issues with the CVT bands or pulleys starting to degrade and could still get optimum life out of the fluid.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Does this mean I'll get a good deal on a Citroën?

Shit. Current ones don't even look like the ones from the 70s and 80s.

They need to start selling their lower priced European cars in the US. Or make a US version here for cheap. Not everyone wants power seats, moonroof, heated everything, power windows, etc.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/21/demand-destruction-for-existing-homes-sales-in-2024-on-track-for-lowest-since-1995-amid-highest-supply-for-october-in-6-years/

Demand Destruction for Existing Houses: Sales in 2024 Track Lowest since 1995 amid Highest Supply for October in 6 Years

Too-high house prices cause demand destruction on an epic scale. Buyers’ strike continues in November and December.

US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaches 7%

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates increased to a four-month high this week, which together with higher home prices could sideline potential buyers from the housing market in the near term.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.84%, the highest level since July, from 6.785% last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 7.29% during the same period a year ago.

Though the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since September, U.S. Treasury yields have risen on strong economic data and investor fears that President-elect Donald Trump's policies, including higher tariffs on imported goods and mass deportations, could reignite inflation.

Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury note.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-30-fixed-rate-mortgage-172746908.html

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaches 7%

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates increased to a four-month high this week, which together with higher home prices could sideline potential buyers from the housing market in the near term.

Too much government debt on the bond market competing with the 30 yr mortgage bonds for bond market buyers

The 30 yr mortgage rate is usually around 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury rate which is usually at least 1% greater than annual inflation.
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AD says

Too much government debt on the bond market competing with the 30 yr mortgage bonds for bond market buyers

Buyers of USTs are not the same buyers of mortgage paper (which is still bring bundled
..yes) and vice versa.

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Wolfman at Wolf Street and Mister Mish at MishTalk have excellent blog posts today about housing inventory.

Until housing prices drop more to account for +6% rate for the 30 yr mortgage, then housing inventory will accumulate.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home price based on affordability standards.

Granted, since the 30 yr mortgage rate bottomed around 3% in early 2022, household income has increased about 20%. So accounting for this, home prices should be +20% below early 2022 levels.

Also home price to income ratio needs to drop more.

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Al_Sharpton_for_President says

OHH. Half Dome and full domes in the same shot.

OHH. Half Dome and full domes in the same shot.

AD says

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Wolfman at Wolf Street and Mister Mish at MishTalk have excellent blog posts today about housing inventory.

Until housing prices drop more to account for +6% rate for the 30 yr mortgage, then housing inventory will accumulate.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home price based on affordability standards.

Granted, since the 30 yr mortgage rate bottomed around 3% in early 2022, household income has increased about 20%. So accounting for this, home prices should be +20% below early 2022 levels.

Also home price to income ratio needs to drop more.

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Something neither of these Gurus note is that most States have down payment assistance now for new homebuyers. It averages out at about $10k (Florida is right there in the middle of the pack). Toss in some personal savings and a few bucks from Mom and Dad and it levitates the historical price/income ratio.

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

Misc says

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

But it is the mortgaged purchases that determine prices in most markets.

zzyzzx says

Math was that guys weak subject in school. Or his contractors fucked him over. He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab. Outside of coastal areas, $50-75k is a solid profit on a flip. Better off working a part time job waiting for the deal. Should have waited until it was $300k. Doesn't go there, don't buy it.

Flipping is generally stupid in this market. Unless you can bird dog some senior or something looking to get rid of their house moving in with family or a home. Estate sale so to speak. The profit is minimal on flips outside of coastal areas. Even then it's tough. Gotta get to 12 months inventory and get bottom of the barrel. Either way short term cap gains are going to kill you on profit. Better off getting a multi-unit that you can eventually convert to condos after renting for 5 years.

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

comps don’t account for many things, it’s just sqft

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Misc says

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

But it is the mortgaged purchases that determine prices in most markets.

Another thing that has come into being is that 34% of new buyers are coming in with downpayment assistance from Mom and Dad. When you add this to the $10k new buyer assistance from the State, it lifts the price of the house compared to price/income levels of the past. This is in addition to the 25% all cash buyers. So, yes, prices are inflated even for those with mortgages because of the extra coin being used for down payment.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

Asking price means nothing. Research the owner of a property. The agent wants more commission. They do the higher price. You find the property owner or family is distress and offer a low ball number. Do that 50 times and you’ll hit.

Then don’t have shitty contractors that screw you over. Or do the work yourself.

Flipping is easy, humans don’t have patience or need money. It could take 6 months to find a flip and you’re not making money. Ultimately I’d never advise anyone to flip though. Need to educate yourself and it’s a full time job. If you have no trade skills your margins will be tiny.

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

i’d riot if they did that. bullshit coin as i call it, nothing more than some video game currency invented scam. our government is involved in this scam, it’s obvious, they would have shit it long ago otherwise. creating pyramid schemes is illegal.

I've been one of the bigger BTC bashers. I'm still gonna have my kids toss in $100 soon. They each have about $10k roughly in cash and I want them investing it.

I won't at my age, but my oldest at 14, in 20 years before it's finished mining it will likely be worth more. How much is the question. Still worth nothing in my world, but it's a small bet and they've barely worked yet. Not gonna break the bank.