patrick.net

zzyzzx says

Math was that guys weak subject in school. Or his contractors fucked him over. He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab. Outside of coastal areas, $50-75k is a solid profit on a flip. Better off working a part time job waiting for the deal. Should have waited until it was $300k. Doesn't go there, don't buy it.

Flipping is generally stupid in this market. Unless you can bird dog some senior or something looking to get rid of their house moving in with family or a home. Estate sale so to speak. The profit is minimal on flips outside of coastal areas. Even then it's tough. Gotta get to 12 months inventory and get bottom of the barrel. Either way short term cap gains are going to kill you on profit. Better off getting a multi-unit that you can eventually convert to condos after renting for 5 years.

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

comps don’t account for many things, it’s just sqft

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Misc says

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

But it is the mortgaged purchases that determine prices in most markets.

Another thing that has come into being is that 34% of new buyers are coming in with downpayment assistance from Mom and Dad. When you add this to the $10k new buyer assistance from the State, it lifts the price of the house compared to price/income levels of the past. This is in addition to the 25% all cash buyers. So, yes, prices are inflated even for those with mortgages because of the extra coin being used for down payment.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.

Asking price means nothing. Research the owner of a property. The agent wants more commission. They do the higher price. You find the property owner or family is distress and offer a low ball number. Do that 50 times and you’ll hit.

Then don’t have shitty contractors that screw you over. Or do the work yourself.

Flipping is easy, humans don’t have patience or need money. It could take 6 months to find a flip and you’re not making money. Ultimately I’d never advise anyone to flip though. Need to educate yourself and it’s a full time job. If you have no trade skills your margins will be tiny.

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

People who use leverage to buy bitcorn get their clocks cleaned out regularly by whales and other actors.

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

i’d riot if they did that. bullshit coin as i call it, nothing more than some video game currency invented scam. our government is involved in this scam, it’s obvious, they would have shit it long ago otherwise. creating pyramid schemes is illegal.

I've been one of the bigger BTC bashers. I'm still gonna have my kids toss in $100 soon. They each have about $10k roughly in cash and I want them investing it.

I won't at my age, but my oldest at 14, in 20 years before it's finished mining it will likely be worth more. How much is the question. Still worth nothing in my world, but it's a small bet and they've barely worked yet. Not gonna break the bank.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

And yet Trump is supposed to set up a Bc reserve.

Which is fine if they can't be margin called like the others I was referring to.

That's why we need to end the Fed. Yes, it would be 10-20 years of pain, but the boon to our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids would be immense.

No person that is a non USofA citizen (no dual citizenship either) should be allowed to own property in any state in the United States of America. No foreign companies or corporations either.

ForcedTQ says

No person that is a non USofA citizen (no dual citizenship either) should be allowed to own property in any state in the United States of America. No foreign companies or corporations either.

Furthermore - commodities futures markets should go back to way it used to be before the 1980's - only the producers and consumers of said commodities could participate in the futures markets that affected the products with which they were concerned. No hedge funds or "investment banks."

ForcedTQ says

No person that is a non USofA citizen (no dual citizenship either) should be allowed to own property in any state in the United States of America. No foreign companies or corporations either.

Agree with everything except dual citizenship. Would have to be a primary residence, basically you live here full time. Did it legally. I don't see a problem with that. My Canadian BIL will get dual citizenship soon. Will buy a home. Work in the states and produce something for other Americans.

Illegals shouldn't be allowed or non-primary residents. Can't just buy a home and let it sit there from China or somewhere else. Live and spend here 6+ months of the year.

Highest is 11 years? I thought this was an apocalypse.

Appalachia tool shed in Santa Cruz is now an even better bargain. This is what it costs for a beach sugar shack to enjoy thong season.

What does this have to do with housing prices?

Congruence.

The car market with tons of unsold inventory -- some even 2023 models -- need to crash drop prices low enough to clear out is also the same problem many housing markets across the nation need to do or will soon.

Dunno why these sectors can't figure out the obvious. Because YES the same actions are needed to clear out non-selling inventory on a market whether they be clearing the shelves off at WalMart or a supermarket or a carpet emporiom even a flee market stall: Either drop the damn prices enough via an EVERYTHING HAS TO GO liquidation sale OR product destruction.

If the car manufacturers designed and built cars that could be far more easily recycled, they could then do the latter even if housing can't. But noo...they don't. So crash selling it is.

But it is amazing how they fight against the waves like King Canute instead. So much for these idiots with business degrees, unlike homeowners.



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/04/cut-the-price-and-they-will-come-new-vehicle-sales-jump-in-november-amid-big-discounts-and-incentives-as-inventory-balloons/

Dealers were hoping the Covid times was "the new normal". I witnessed my co-worker buying a KIA for his daughter and it had $3K markup on a fucking $25K econobox. Any attempt to negotiate it down was met with "go shop around if you don't like our prices". He tried and every other dealer who even had a comparable car on the lot was marking up $5K+. He went back with his tail between his legs and paid the ask. The dealers and manufacturers held out as long as they could (hence these unsold 2023 cars on the lots), but now the race to the bottom has finally began.

I bet the holders of overpriced RE are watching stock market and wishing their money weren't tied up in the shacks...

Now homeloaners with 50 year old houses need to follow the car dealerships lead. We need 30% more, but 10% will do for the new year.

ID is next. Maybe MT. AZ at this point is semi bullet proof even though it keeps going up. CO is in the cross hairs. Nashville area is going to get the shit beat out of it in my opinion.

Vegas/NV I think does okay this time. CA I have no clue with all the Asians and illegals. San Diego seems fine. Everyone is moving out of LA though. I don't get any appeal in the Bay Area outside of a job. The weather is not all that great there. No snow, but foggy and a bad vibe.

Midwest, my area I think has a 10% floor IF it goes down at all. Chicago still has some room to lose and Milwaukee. Indy I'm not super familiar with or Detroit as they're trash cities.

Any correction is going to be minimal. Most people are locked into low interest rates. No point in moving unless you bought small and started a family. Hence why we're building. The new payment is trivial for us although it will be triple. Fucking permits need to come in tomorrow though. I've been a complete ass hole. Turnaround on this stuff is 48 business hours in my world. We're going on 6 weeks now. I want to start punching people and it might start tonight if I can make the village board meeting if I can bail early on mine.

WookieMan says

Most people are locked into low interest rates

Job Relocation, Divorce, Job Loss, Health & Death, and Retirement...

And the first four are not up to the homeloaner in most cases.

@zzyzzx

Love the chart. The sharp rise in the 80s was obviously the "greed is good" era. Part of it was Regand pro growth anti regulation approach which dragged us out of the stagflation of the 1970s.

Despite the recession in the 90s the trend reverted to a new mean almost 10x higher than the generation before. This in my view is attributeable to the rise in dual income households, either as women entered the workforce or single parents picked up second (or third) jobs.

Most of us remember the tech bubble of the late 90s and early 2000s which began the hosing bubble and subsequent collapse on '08. Things reverted back to where they would have been absent a bubble.

This happens to be when I bought my house (2012) at a nice low rate for the time (3.5% for 30 yr fixed).

We're now over a decade on and this "everything bubble" is massive. Absent a structural shift there is going to be a day of reckoning.

It could be the market collapses (again). It could be the fed intervenes and lowers rates. Banks may also loosen lending standards if the feds let them. This should help keep the party going with punch in the bowl.

But I think worst case one of two outcomes is probable. 1) we end up like the Walton's. Multi generations or multi families under one roof, so that there are three, four or six incomes coming in. Or 2) transfer of housing stock via inheritance. Or a mix of both.

For as tough as it was 20 years ago when I first started shopping for a house, it's 10x more diffult today. Covid and work from home has permanently shifted the landscape. Here in the suburbs of NYC we've seen a new wave of "city folk" moving in.

"borrowed" from @peoplesunited rapture thread

Another bubble brewing as well:

The RTO clampdown is accelerating so all these folks who moved into (formerly) inexpensive areas to spend their big city bucks are in for an awakening. I'm already being bombarded by "price lowered" alerts in Tahoe area where yons of Goolag and Fuckbook peeps moved during scamdemic. (The Tahoe area is inexpensive only relatively to the Bay Area, of course, but still.)

RWSGFY says

The RTO clampdown is accelerating

THE ATTEMPT TO ENFORCE RTO is accelerating. All to save commercial real estate sunk costs. But the reality is different.

Firms that do not pay much for office space because they have WFH vs those that do have a competitive advantage. FB, Apple, Microsoft and Google have massive sunk costs in buildings. But they have near monopoly control of their markets but those markets or monopolies won't last forever. FB is all old ppl now. GenX or older.

Other firms don't enjoy that.

And the high value employees almost always get WFH privileges no matter what. Because when they don't, they go work where that is the case.

That in turn causes problems with the hoi polloi workers "How come 300 IQ Han gets to WFH but I don't? It's because I am a trans POC, right?"

Of course right now, mgmt probably wants a lot of these hires to quit anyway.

AmericanKulak says

Job Relocation, Divorce, Job Loss, Health & Death, and Retirement...

Job relocation isn't a big one. Most people aren't married anymore and one usually keeps the house anyway. Job loss you're an idiot if you can't find a new one. I can't work full time and get dozens of offers a month. Death the kids take over the estate and see all these real estate guru's and rent it out.

Retirement is probably the biggest, but Boomers with a brain have already done what they need to. They're either wealthy and can keep the big house or were empty nesters in the 2010's and downsized already. That played into the housing crash besides shit loans. Boomers are my parents friends, none of them are moving. My mom is but she has a unique property that isn't your average home or land.

I've said I'm the anecdotal guy. I see no Uhauls on the road. No moving trucks here in IL. New houses are being built. Prices can look like a bubble, but if the loans are solid I don't see a problem. I think it's more movement of people fleeing shit states with shit policies at this point. Everyone that left IL already did. Uhaul is stacked here. So little to no out of state movement.

I think CA and the Northeast are going to bring the national median down with their high home prices. It won't be a crash though nationwide like last time. It will look bad on paper, but likely only two regions. And that might not even happen for a while.

WookieMan says

one usually keeps the house anyway.

It's more typical that the house is ordered sold and the equity split.

You're looking at this as an R/E investor and not as Joe Average, for whom the home is the biggest "asset" he's ever had.

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

It's never been a worse time to buy.

BTW, massive rental collapse in Florida.

I'm starting to see 2+ beds under $2000 and even some old 3+ beds out for rental. You could barely find Studios or 1 beds. This is on the Beach.

Under $2000 in Palm Bay now, brimming with 90s houses (not townhouse, not apts) under $2000. 6 months ago there was nothing.

Thinking about it as I'm outgrowing my little Condo with kids growing up and mom (78) needing to move in shortly.

EDIT: And this is December, the WORST time to look for rentals.

AmericanKulak says

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

Not anymore. Given rates we're building pretty strong here. Not biased either. There's no homes for sale here. FL is a different story with different parts. People are moving out of Chicago now but still staying in state. FL probably has an overbuilding problem of houses, condos and apartments.

NY, CA have IL type exodus problems. We've for sure stabilized now though. Won't grow by any means, maybe still lose a little, but not a lot. If IL hit level 10, NY & CA are level 3-4 right now on the way to 10. That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

FL I think it's just tap the brakes on building for a year or two (mostly) and let demand catch up with inventory to level it out. You guys have had the influx of people that can actually retire already and likely overbuilt. Your average boomer is high 60-70 age wise. Past higher end SS collection age and 59-1/2 for IRA/401k with no penalty. Basically if you were 60 you should have retired and if you wanted a condo in FL already did it a decade ago. So they built to demand and it's drying up because everyone did it.

Time flies when you're having fun. Boomers that can't retire won't and will stay put. Those that can already did. We're a decade past that timeline. There's no mass movement of geezers. Or they stay put because they can afford to or can't because they're broke. We've crossed the Boomer moving threshold is my point. It's over.

WookieMan says

That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

What does this mean? Can you explain this, please.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

What does this mean? Can you explain this, please.

Median national price. If you include NY, IL, CA or any states with an exodus moving into lower priced states the median price nationally goes down. It's a scare tactic to get clicks and views for ad revenue for media and real estate commentators. Meanwhile Nebraska, Wyoming, Arkansas or Alabama are doing just fine. And most states.

Ignore national median is all I'll say. It's a bull shit metric. Maybe look at your state, but here in IL go by county. People are staying in the state now, but just moving out of Chicago to cheaper homes/rent and better schools. Millennials are finally having kids and I think the even younger generation is having more kids too.

Point is 3 states could bring the national median down 10-20%. Looks awful. It's because it's dictated by coastal states. Focus on your state and county level values. If people are leaving, the higher end homes will lose the most and others will follow. If CA doesn't sell 300 $30M homes and cuts them to $20M, that moves the national median. Same with NYC. Condos and houses drop $5-10M median goes lower.

Thing is generally no one is losing in those markets. Sure they lost money but now the rest of the country feels like it's a crash and panic. The loans are good now for the most part. It's inventory and delinquencies to keep an eye on. Not national median.