patrick.net

HeadSet says

And even those who are not laid off may find their agency transferred to a Midwestern city.

In which case, they will have to sell...in a declining market.

HeadSet says

And even those who are not laid off may find their agency transferred to a Midwestern city.

Good idea. Extinguish Potomac Fever.

I know Adam Taggart. Good guy.

I swear sometimes you guys live on different planets or don't travel at all. Coastal areas will get trashed and it will validate your narrative. That's not the case though for most of the country. Look locally and don't project nationally. No inventory here and prices are going up so much that people are building because there's no re-sale homes on the market. That's why I never look at national prices.

WookieMan says

I swear sometimes you guys live on different planets

That would describe you more than the rest of us.

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The Baron's article author recommends the federal government work with states and counties to increase housing inventory.

They broke ground and excavated for Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach, but nothing else has been done for at least 4 months. They may be waiting for rents to stabilize at least, as well as for interest rates to drop some as well.

The listed rents for townhomes like at Hathaway Townhomes and Annabellas Tonwhomes are at 2021 or 2022 levels.

Urban Blu Apartments has been very coy (as expected) as far as listing rental rates and incentives (1 month free).

Florida is a lot more speculative and boom-bust for residential real estate than stingy states like California and Illinois, so it is usually the first state to show residential real estate market strain.

But I am seeing Florida sales on Zillow, albeit at 20 to 25% below all time high levels set in early 2022.

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What is interesting is I researched "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" in Panama City Beach (within 1 mile of Hathaway Bridge). It's a huge area where they cleared countless amount of southern pine trees, as it looks like at least 200 apartment units will be built.

The agent for the Hathaway Luxury Apartment is
Marvin Setness - Controller - RD Offutt Company

I wonder why a potato company (RD Offutt Company) is an apartment developer in Panama City Beach :-/

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For those listings that are showing 20-25% discounts, I'm gonna bet that there are problems with the property and tons of deferred maintenance.

Misc says

For those listings that are showing 20-25% discounts, I'm gonna bet that there are problems with the property and tons of deferred maintenance.

Bingo. And have to move for whatever reason so they list low to get out of it. Generally they're walking with equity as well. There's not many distressed sales and they'll always exist.

I know for sure I've been involved in more real estate transactions than anyone on this forum over a 15 year period. Your comment is spot on though. The market started a slow rebound with low interest rates a decade ago so no one moved.

I love it when people think they know what's going on with the market, yet haven't even worked a day in it. There's always a story behind a listing marked down 20%. It doesn't mean an overall market correction is coming though. I know this started as a housing crash site and some buy/rent types, but this market is completely different.

The are so many false narratives out there. Millennials can't and won't buy. Utter bull shit. Boomers will move and the market will plummet. Again BS. They already moved if retired, that ship has sailed. Also people don't understand basic supply and demand. Builders build to demand now. Not build it and they'll come because they could get an easy loan. No skilled trades either after a decade plus of generally not building.

I think a lot on here get into doom and gloom clickbait article and news. I've said it before, high density urban areas will be hit the worst as Millennials start moving to suburban and rural areas to move their family out to better schools and cheaper cost of living.

@Wookieman: How are real estate agents, brokers, home inspectors etc. doing/managing in the current market?

gabbar says

Wookieman: How are real estate agents, brokers, home inspectors etc. doing/managing in the current market?

The ones I still know are doing fine by me, at least the agents/brokers. Inspectors are doing fine as well. A lot do new building inspections as well as resale home inspections.

Is any of them making $300k/yr? Mostly no in my area. It's hard in real estate as an agent as you split 30% with brokerage (usually) unless you own the place. In NYC, CA and FL getting about $650k GCI is easier, but where I'm at you'd have to sell 20-30 houses a year at least.

During the bust a lot of people just got out of real estate in general. The ones that stay with it are in high demand and have the experience generally. It's the whole pareto principle 80/20%. 80% will trudge along. Stay at home mom that does real estate on the side for 2-3 deals a year. Or a guy that sucks at sales.

20% will do most of the business and those are the types I know and they're fine. Female lenders seem to do better for whatever reason as the job is basic AF, so a pretty face goes a long way.

To sum it up I don't know people leaving the industry unless they have other ambitions. There's also no signs in yards because we don't have inventory. I also think a lot brokers may have put their license in a holding company and just send referral to the top dogs. It's a shitty business on a day to day basis. You have to be super motivated to earn.

HeadSet says

And even those who are not laid off may find their agency transferred to a Midwestern city.

Why do you want to punish Midwestern cities?

WookieMan says

I love it when people think they know what's going on with the market, yet haven't even worked a day in it.

Yeah. I hear you.

Kind of like people thinking they know what's going on in a region yet haven't even lived a day in it.

AD says

The Baron's article author recommends the federal government work with states and counties to increase housing inventory.

We don't need every inch of every state to be multi-family housing. The People's Republic of Cambridge, MA just did away with single-family home zoning.

State planning organizations (like the corrupt mapc.org) are implementing high-density development in all cities/town near MBTA transit. The "Community housing law" requires high-density housing (example: small town of <10K residents must have 15 housing units/acre with ~10 acre minimum of this high-density housing required). This is in addition to the Massachusetts 40B law that requires each city/town ot have 10% "affordable" housing and forces high-density (8 X local zoning law) for 40B. Corrupt developers like Habitech know how to use 40B to destroy towns. Pretty soon, every former small town in MA will be just like Boston or Worcester. Ugh!

Kraft is running against Wu for Boston mayor, but he's no better than Wu. One of his top priorities is more housing and skirting/overriding zoning to get it. He's a developers wet dream.

We need to remove illegals in MA, stop corrupt visa programs (H-1B, TN, OPT, F-1, and others) to stabilize housing.

WookieMan says

Misc says

For those listings that are showing 20-25% discounts, I'm gonna bet that there are problems with the property and tons of deferred maintenance.

Bingo. And have to move for whatever reason so they list low to get out of it. Generally they're walking with equity as well. There's not many distressed sales and they'll always exist.

Look at the one example for Blackstone selling in Florida that was posted here. I checked its Zillow listing and it looked like it needed little to no work.

I'm saying 20% discount from all time high market levels (around early 2022) with homes that are in at least fair to good condition, and this particularly applies to Florida because its normally ahead of other states as far as market bubble corrections.

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B.A.C.A.H. says

Kind of like people thinking they know what's going on in a region yet haven't even lived a day in it.

The spice venture capital will flow. This is the mothers milk of the Bay Area and trickles down in to the housing market. AI is capital intensive, so that is a reason to temper expectations, but otherwise the Q4 numbers are pretty robust.
US gained, Silicon Valley fired up
Venture funding to U.S. companies totaled $178 billion — around 57% of total global funding. The U.S. funding market raised a greater proportion of global funding, up from 48% in 2023.
Of all U.S. funding, $90 billion was invested in the corridors of the San Francisco Bay Area, which experienced a boom from AI investing. Compare that with 2023, when Bay Area companies raised $59 billion in total funding.
Late-stage funding in the fourth quarter reached $61 billion, up more than 70% quarter over quarter and an increase year over year from the $36 billion invested in Q4 2023, Crunchbase data shows.

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-listings-piling-up-pending-sales-falling/

Housing Supply Is Piling Up As Home Sellers Enter the Market But Buyers Stay on Sidelines

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-listings-piling-up-pending-sales-falling/

Housing Supply Is Piling Up As Home Sellers Enter the Market But Buyers Stay on Sidelines

As I mentioned they stopped construction after breaking ground about 4 months ago on Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach.

Eventually demand will meet supply at some equilibrium point.

Maybe there will be increased sales volume when the 30 yr mortgage rate drops to 6% within the next 6 months.

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AD says

Maybe there will be increased sales volume when the 30 yr mortgage rate drops to 6% within the next 6 months.

Core inflation is up against. This time most of it is in services.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

AD says

Maybe there will be increased sales volume when the 30 yr mortgage rate drops to 6% within the next 6 months.

Core inflation is up against. This time most of it is in services.

The Federal Reserves uses PCE not CPI to track inflation, so we'll see how PCE fares and if it steadies around 2 to 2.5% annually.

May need another 12 months until it reaches steady state, so the Fed Funds rate can be lowered from currently 4.5% to 3.5%.

The 30 Yr mortgage rate should be around 6% based on it historically being around 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury rate (~4.5%).

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AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

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American Kulak,

How much of a disrupter is Trump ? He's going to cause a +20% reduction of the federal government and contractor workforce who live in Northern Virginia ?

At most I see a 10% reduction and that is from now to 4 July 2026 and that is in part through attrition and hiring freezes.

Also, what is the data showing for Northern Virginia as far as days on market, months of inventory, etc ?

I have faith Trump will be a lot more financially prudent and savvy than Birdbrain Biden, who spent about $50 billion a year for Ukraine and $68 billion a year on student loan forgiveness (ref: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/total-cost-student-debt-cancellation). Let alone the $11 billion per year from Biden's climate change programs.

Trump will realize major reforms in 2025 but not enough to cause significant damage to the NOVA real estate market. And I don't see "panic selling" like a run on the bank atmosphere happening.

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AD says

How much of a disrupter is Trump ? He's going to cause a +20% reduction of the federal government and contractor workforce who live in Northern Virginia ?

Entire NGOs with staffs of dozens or more are HQ'd in and around DC. They were largely dependent on USAID and other Government grants to exist.

I think the US Army had tens of millions just in DEI consulting contracts. Dept of Ed gave $30M to one DEI group that covered 13 states. DEI doesn't have factories, just some office rentals and maybe MSOffice leases, so most of that is salary bloat.

So we've got thousands and thousands of NGOs already just from DOGE and the freeze. Can't pay their office rent, much less staff

The joke "They ain't so N when they need G money to function as an O" is going around.

We also have big IRS layoffs coming up, plus firings of no shows, etc. I'd say isn't the only round of early retirement offers. NPR is full of bitching bureaucrats re: having to... work M-F 9-5... even on Fridays, boo hoo.

Alot of people are going to discover they've got Fibro, My Ass, Gia and general malaise and take the early as others do it. People putting their fiscal future over being a Resist Ant.

Roses are red, violets are blue,
Today, DOGE and 10 agencies made 586 wasteful contracts bid adieu!

With a ceiling value of $2.1B and $445M in savings secured,
A perfect Valentine’s gift for all taxpayers—well-earned and deserved!

Today’s batch includes a $8.2M USDA contract for “environmental compliance services for the implementation of pilot projects developed under the partnership for climate smart commodities”.


https://x.com/DOGE/status/1890593889314038216

AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

I wonder if that will also affect prices in Lake Anna, Fredericksburg, or even coastal Virginia.

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

I wonder if that will also affect prices in Lake Anna, Fredericksburg, or even coastal Virginia.

They will just get other jobs. They likely had jobs before Biden expanded the IRS payroll. And government experience is generally seen as a good thing on a resume. I don't think it moves DC area housing much within a 90 min commute range.

Biggest problem for them is losing the beni's. They'll likely get paid more in private sector. Hence why I don't think it's that big of a deal. It's just healthcare is going to cost most more for them now. I don't think that's going to force people to move though.

Unless it was two spouses in the same government agency. They'll get unemployment and land back on their feet pretty quickly is my guess.

Patrick says

I know Adam Taggart. Good guy.

My property i bought in Idaho already dropped 90k from time i bought. and i don’t think it’s the bottom. we bought at its all time high when market was inflated like a balloon.

the drop is definitely happening out here. i don’t care, just glad it’s correcting. living in fake bullshit economy was stupid.

WookieMan says

They will just get other jobs. They likely had jobs before Biden expanded the IRS payroll. And government experience is generally seen as a good thing on a resume.

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

GNL says

WookieMan says

They will just get other jobs. They likely had jobs before Biden expanded the IRS payroll. And government experience is generally seen as a good thing on a resume.

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

It's not easy to get a government job. You have to jump through a lot of hoops and the pay sucks at first. Similar to a teacher pay wise.

IRS guys will get accounting jobs no problem. Accountant need and want any insider knowledge even if it's a low level IRS employee. They got behind the curtain so to speak. That has value.

WookieMan says

IRS guys will get accounting jobs no problem. Accountant need and want any insider knowledge even if it's a low level IRS employee. They got behind the curtain so to speak. That has value.

DC is not noted for accounting firms... that would be Boston, NY, Chicago, etc.

Being an IRS Customer Service Supervisor != Real Accountant

GNL says

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

My observation from decades in the trenches of tech including interview committees and whatnot, is lengthy govie time on the resume is more of a negative than a positive.

Someone who did some such time as a youngster early their working life for short number of years before working in the private sector would be judged with less skepticism.

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

My observation from decades in the trenches of tech including interview committees and whatnot, is lengthy govie time on the resume is more of a negative than a positive.

Someone who did some such time as a youngster early their working life for short number of years before working in the private sector would be judged with less skepticism.

My comment had nothing to do with tech. Not sure why that's even a topic? It was about the IRS. An IRS agent isn't getting into tech. Two different fields. They can easily find a job.

We can have a conversation or you just bash every one of my comments with no logic. At no point did I talk about tech. You know more in that field than I do. Just like you don't know more about real estate than I do. Stay in your lane.

An IRS agent will get hired if laid off. Connections matter.

WookieMan says

We can have a conversation or you just bash every one of my comments with no logic

Huh?

Please read my post again. It was in response to GNL's remark, which I cited. Nothing to do with yours.

Chill out, bro.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Please read my post again. It was in response to GNL's remark, which I cited. Nothing to do with yours.

Chill out, bro.

Just don't get him started on his wife..

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Just don't get him started on his wife..

Already did ;)

Also glad I have one. Do you? Kids? I'm guessing no. Enjoy life my friend.

One great way to get a million single moms off the hoefare rolls is to tariff outsourced customer service up to the amount it would cost them to pay and host them in the USA.

Free Traders never mention that when you outsource, you lose the payroll tax, property tax, corporate tax, AND the secondary jobs (restaurants, logistics, office supplies, janitorial, repair/maintenance) from the factory too. Guess who then has to pay to maintain the already existing infrastructure? Everybody else, the same amount spread over a smaller taxpaying group. That's a key way trade deficits lead to government debt.