patrick.net

.

American Kulak,

How much of a disrupter is Trump ? He's going to cause a +20% reduction of the federal government and contractor workforce who live in Northern Virginia ?

At most I see a 10% reduction and that is from now to 4 July 2026 and that is in part through attrition and hiring freezes.

Also, what is the data showing for Northern Virginia as far as days on market, months of inventory, etc ?

I have faith Trump will be a lot more financially prudent and savvy than Birdbrain Biden, who spent about $50 billion a year for Ukraine and $68 billion a year on student loan forgiveness (ref: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/total-cost-student-debt-cancellation). Let alone the $11 billion per year from Biden's climate change programs.

Trump will realize major reforms in 2025 but not enough to cause significant damage to the NOVA real estate market. And I don't see "panic selling" like a run on the bank atmosphere happening.

.

AD says

How much of a disrupter is Trump ? He's going to cause a +20% reduction of the federal government and contractor workforce who live in Northern Virginia ?

Entire NGOs with staffs of dozens or more are HQ'd in and around DC. They were largely dependent on USAID and other Government grants to exist.

I think the US Army had tens of millions just in DEI consulting contracts. Dept of Ed gave $30M to one DEI group that covered 13 states. DEI doesn't have factories, just some office rentals and maybe MSOffice leases, so most of that is salary bloat.

So we've got thousands and thousands of NGOs already just from DOGE and the freeze. Can't pay their office rent, much less staff

The joke "They ain't so N when they need G money to function as an O" is going around.

We also have big IRS layoffs coming up, plus firings of no shows, etc. I'd say isn't the only round of early retirement offers. NPR is full of bitching bureaucrats re: having to... work M-F 9-5... even on Fridays, boo hoo.

Alot of people are going to discover they've got Fibro, My Ass, Gia and general malaise and take the early as others do it. People putting their fiscal future over being a Resist Ant.

Roses are red, violets are blue,
Today, DOGE and 10 agencies made 586 wasteful contracts bid adieu!

With a ceiling value of $2.1B and $445M in savings secured,
A perfect Valentine’s gift for all taxpayers—well-earned and deserved!

Today’s batch includes a $8.2M USDA contract for “environmental compliance services for the implementation of pilot projects developed under the partnership for climate smart commodities”.


https://x.com/DOGE/status/1890593889314038216

AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

I wonder if that will also affect prices in Lake Anna, Fredericksburg, or even coastal Virginia.

HeadSet says

AmericanKulak says

One thing is clear: Divest of Northern Virginia Real Estate NOW

I wonder if that will also affect prices in Lake Anna, Fredericksburg, or even coastal Virginia.

They will just get other jobs. They likely had jobs before Biden expanded the IRS payroll. And government experience is generally seen as a good thing on a resume. I don't think it moves DC area housing much within a 90 min commute range.

Biggest problem for them is losing the beni's. They'll likely get paid more in private sector. Hence why I don't think it's that big of a deal. It's just healthcare is going to cost most more for them now. I don't think that's going to force people to move though.

Unless it was two spouses in the same government agency. They'll get unemployment and land back on their feet pretty quickly is my guess.

Patrick says

I know Adam Taggart. Good guy.

My property i bought in Idaho already dropped 90k from time i bought. and i don’t think it’s the bottom. we bought at its all time high when market was inflated like a balloon.

the drop is definitely happening out here. i don’t care, just glad it’s correcting. living in fake bullshit economy was stupid.

WookieMan says

They will just get other jobs. They likely had jobs before Biden expanded the IRS payroll. And government experience is generally seen as a good thing on a resume.

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

GNL says

WookieMan says

They will just get other jobs. They likely had jobs before Biden expanded the IRS payroll. And government experience is generally seen as a good thing on a resume.

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

It's not easy to get a government job. You have to jump through a lot of hoops and the pay sucks at first. Similar to a teacher pay wise.

IRS guys will get accounting jobs no problem. Accountant need and want any insider knowledge even if it's a low level IRS employee. They got behind the curtain so to speak. That has value.

WookieMan says

IRS guys will get accounting jobs no problem. Accountant need and want any insider knowledge even if it's a low level IRS employee. They got behind the curtain so to speak. That has value.

DC is not noted for accounting firms... that would be Boston, NY, Chicago, etc.

Being an IRS Customer Service Supervisor != Real Accountant

GNL says

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

My observation from decades in the trenches of tech including interview committees and whatnot, is lengthy govie time on the resume is more of a negative than a positive.

Someone who did some such time as a youngster early their working life for short number of years before working in the private sector would be judged with less skepticism.

B.A.C.A.H. says

GNL says

I'm not sure why you say that. There are a ton of make work worthless jobs in government.

My observation from decades in the trenches of tech including interview committees and whatnot, is lengthy govie time on the resume is more of a negative than a positive.

Someone who did some such time as a youngster early their working life for short number of years before working in the private sector would be judged with less skepticism.

My comment had nothing to do with tech. Not sure why that's even a topic? It was about the IRS. An IRS agent isn't getting into tech. Two different fields. They can easily find a job.

We can have a conversation or you just bash every one of my comments with no logic. At no point did I talk about tech. You know more in that field than I do. Just like you don't know more about real estate than I do. Stay in your lane.

An IRS agent will get hired if laid off. Connections matter.

WookieMan says

We can have a conversation or you just bash every one of my comments with no logic

Huh?

Please read my post again. It was in response to GNL's remark, which I cited. Nothing to do with yours.

Chill out, bro.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Please read my post again. It was in response to GNL's remark, which I cited. Nothing to do with yours.

Chill out, bro.

Just don't get him started on his wife..

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Just don't get him started on his wife..

Already did ;)

Also glad I have one. Do you? Kids? I'm guessing no. Enjoy life my friend.

One great way to get a million single moms off the hoefare rolls is to tariff outsourced customer service up to the amount it would cost them to pay and host them in the USA.

Free Traders never mention that when you outsource, you lose the payroll tax, property tax, corporate tax, AND the secondary jobs (restaurants, logistics, office supplies, janitorial, repair/maintenance) from the factory too. Guess who then has to pay to maintain the already existing infrastructure? Everybody else, the same amount spread over a smaller taxpaying group. That's a key way trade deficits lead to government debt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/21/january-home-sales-drop-sharply-as-prices-hit-high.html

The U.S. housing market continues to weaken, as potential buyers face stubbornly high mortgage rates, elevated prices and limited supply of listings.

Sales of previously owned homes fell 4.9% in January from the prior month to 4.08 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts were expecting a 2.6% decline.

Sales were 2% higher than January 2024, but are still running at a roughly 15-year low.

This read is based on closings, so contracts likely signed in November and December when mortgage rates came down from over 7% to the 6% range.

“Mortgage rates have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. “When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge.”

There were 1.18 million homes for sale at the end of January, an increase of 3.5% from December and 17% from January 2024. Although inventory is gaining, it is still at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.

The average home for sale last month spent 41 days on the market. That is the longest since January 2020, pre-Covid.

Tight supply continues to pressure prices. The median price of a home sold in January was $396,900, up 4.8% from the year before and the highest price ever for the month of January. All four regions tracked by NAR saw price gains. About 15% of homes sold above list price, virtually unchanged from 16% in both the pervious month and the year-earlier period.

“More housing supply allows strongly qualified buyers to enter the market,” Yun added. “But for many consumers, both increased inventory and lower mortgage rates are necessary for them to purchase a different home or become first-time homeowners.”

All-cash offers made up 29% of sales, which is historically high but down from 32% the year before. First-time buyers are still struggling, accounting for 28% of sales. That share is unchanged from a year ago, but is well below historical averages of about 40%.

Home sales are faring significantly better at higher price points and falling at lower price points. For example, sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 dropped 1.2% year over year, while homes priced over $1 million rose nearly 27% from the year before.

Realtors are reporting that buyer traffic in January was weak.

“Realtors are putting more signs up, but the buyers are not coming,” said Yun.

.

Local news copied an article from Bankrate website

https://www.wjhg.com/bankrate-article/2025/01/07/is-housing-market-going-crash-what-experts-are-saying/



,

AD says

“Mortgage rates have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. “When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge.”

Not with inflation going up .5% in January, which would be an annualized 6%.

Delistings soared 64% in 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-delistings-soar-64-highest-211447473.html

Last time that big was 2016 and the time before that was 2006

Investors are cutting losses as Rents collapse 8% in Tampa, almost 10% in Naples, down in almost every FL major market inc. Orlando and Jax.

AmericanKulak says

Investors are cutting losses as Rents collapse

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/tampa-fl/

.

.

Central Florida Panhandle Association of Realtors (CPAR) reported around $510,000 in mid-2023 for the all time high average price for a single detached home. It's now around $405,000.

.



.



.

AD says

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/tampa-fl/

Tampa Bay rents are down 8%. Why are renters still struggling?
An increase in supply has cut into prices, but not enough to align with regional incomes.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/real-estate/2025/02/11/tampa-bay-rents-are-down-8-why-are-renters-still-struggling/#:~:text=Apartment%20rents%20in%20the%20Tampa,%2C%20where%20rents%20decreased%2016%25.

Yet property taxes, insurance, HOA/condo fees up up up!

Nothing here in IL. No one is coming in, but our exodus is over. Can't find a rental or home for sale within 20-30 miles. Everything is built when a contract comes in. Usually once the seller gets a contract or the renter times the move in. Landlord has 4-5 months to find a new renter.

Different worlds.

Outmigration is one of the best ways to measure the effectiveness of state and local government programs, and by that measure, Illinois resoundingly has received a failing grade. Illinois is one of only three states to see its population shrink from 2010 to 2020, and our state’s population losses accelerated between 2022 and 2023.

Wirepoints reported that since 2000, Illinois has seen 1.6 million people migrate out of the state, according to Internal Revenue Service data. While Illinois has driven out residents from every age and income group, the most damaging exodus has been among larger money earners. Illinois consistently ranks near the top in the loss of households earning $200,000 or more. Illinois has also ranked among top states in the loss of businesses, following only New York and California. The state’s outmigration crisis is predictable, given state and local policies that undermine the most important elements of improving outcomes for Black residents: public safety and quality education.

While U.S. News & World Report ranks Illinois 15th among the states for crime and correction, we have the some of the highest rates of robbery among all states, and we are second in the Midwest for homicide rate. Meanwhile Chicago has seen an increase in violent crime since the pandemic, and the city consistently leads the nation’s cities in total number of homicides.

On schools, Illinois spends more per pupil than surrounding states. Yet test scores are abysmal as teacher unions block changes needed to improve schools that affect their members. Illinois killed a tax credit program that supported school choice, and the state legislature and governor have supported teacher union efforts to deny families even public charter school alternatives to failing neighborhood schools. Little wonder that Illinois lost 225,000 students between 2010 and 2021.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/10/opinion-illinois-population-exodus/

With Trump, the end of the influx of migrants with $50-80k/yr benefits to offset the fleeing middle class will finally be felt

AmericanKulak says

On schools, Illinois spends more per pupil than surrounding states. Yet test scores are abysmal as teacher unions block changes needed to improve schools that affect their members. Illinois killed a tax credit program that supported school choice, and the state legislature and governor have supported teacher union efforts to deny families even public charter school alternatives to failing neighborhood schools. Little wonder that Illinois lost 225,000 students between 2010 and 2021.

That's a Chicago thing. Blacks drag that down since they're roughly 33% of the population in Chicagoland. National average is about 13-15% I believe. My kids school is top notch for a public school.

Young white people moved out of IL because it wasn't fun. Older people retired and that's where the high income earner number comes from that left. The Tribune is not the best source. Most have already left. All I know and hang with are $150k plus or more families.

I can tell you that CA is at stage one. IL started well before 2010 as well. I've grown up with it. We're at the stage where it's stopping. JB is not a good governor is the problem still. We'll hopefully figure that out in 2026. We should be the industrial and manufacturing hub of the midwest. Between the Great Lakes, Rail, pipelines and the Mississippi River we could destroy.

Winter sucks, but if you make $300-500K I think you could live with that. Besides the ghetto people most Illinoian's make good money.

AD says

Realtors are putting more signs up, but the buyers are not coming,” said Yun.

.

Still at 2021 rental price: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7562-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/251475291_zpid/

But accounting for increase in housing costs like HOA regular assessment, property tax, and property insurance , this would mean the market price for the home would need to be no more than at 2021 levels when accounting for the townhome unit's capitalization rate or Cap Rate.

.

Well, it's been a long 3 years since this thread was started. Finally, the Case/Shiller has had a month over month drop.

We will wait to see if this single data point is the beginning of a trend.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview

Home Depot exec says Americans may soon embrace sky-high mortgage rates as ‘the new normal’ and invest in housing anyway

https://fortune.com/2025/02/25/home-depot-high-mortgage-rates-new-normal-housing-richard-mcphail-ted-decker/

The 30 yr mortgage rate is 6.85%, which likely means 6.35% for a VA mortgage, so I'd get the VA mortgage and buy 4 discount points to lower it to 5.35%

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

First home buyer age is already 38, up from 35 during pandemic. Average is 56, up from 49 during pandemic.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/buying-a-house-first-time-homebuyer/

There's only one way this ends as the ownership costs from insurance and property tax have rapidly passed the moon in record time and on their way to the Jovian satellites.


Trump ending the Siren Song of Globalism and Lazy Girl Millennial jobs in government/NGOs will only hasten the process.

AmericanKulak says

First home buyer age is already 38, up from 35 during pandemic. Average is 56, up from 49 during pandemic.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/buying-a-house-first-time-homebuyer/

There's only one way this ends. And it won't be by foreigners spending huge amounts of cash to live in the suburbs

And what’s that?

Glock-n-Load says

And what’s that?

Prices collapsing.

It's also the ONLY way to lower insurance and property tax bills. Lower rates don't lower those. Rates going from 7% to 4% don't lower property tax and insurance assessments, only substantial price cuts do.

Inventory. Where is it?

"Why can't we raise wages"

Sure, if you want Denny's and Bealls to be too expensive and medicare to go bankrupt.

"I demand $6.99 Moon over My Hammy AND my wife to get 3 blouses for $20 at Beall's AND my ass wiped 24-7 for $9/hr... but my primary Al Bundy special home I need to sell at $420,000 for muh retirement" "

The only way to save America is to reduce housing costs.

AD says

Home Depot exec says Americans may soon embrace sky-high mortgage rates as ‘the new normal’ and invest in housing anyway

https://fortune.com/2025/02/25/home-depot-high-mortgage-rates-new-normal-housing-richard-mcphail-ted-decker/

The 30 yr mortgage rate is 6.85%, which likely means 6.35% for a VA mortgage, so I'd get the VA mortgage and buy 4 discount points to lower it to 5.35%

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

1) But I was told here on PatNet that mortgage levels would go down!

2) Home Depot CEO must say bullshit like this. But wait! Why? See #1.

Glock-n-Load says

Inventory. Where is it?

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-where-inventory-is-above-pre-pandemic-housing-inventory-levels

Back in August 2024, only 4 states had returned to or surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels.

By October 2024, that number grew to 8 states.

In December 2024, that number was 9 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington.

States likely to join that list soon include Oregon (which crossed it in November, only to slip back under in December), Alabama, Nebraska, Hawaii, and Georgia.

Keeping in Mind the Texas and Florida are the 2 most populous states after California and together they have many more millions than California does.