patrick.net

RWSGFY says

Idaho is probably fucked because many overpaid during the "everybody is moving to Idaho" fad. These lemming marches rarely end well.

We almost closed on a home in the Avimor community, but finally bought a place in Greenville, SC. Downtown Boise did seem to have quite a bit of hipster types, but I never got to know any, so can only judge by appearance.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

RWSGFY says

Idaho is probably fucked because many overpaid during the "everybody is moving to Idaho" fad. These lemming marches rarely end well.

We almost closed on a home in the Avimor community, but finally bought a place in Greenville, SC. Downtown Boise did seem to have quite a bit of hipster types, but I never got to know any, so can only judge by appearance.

I like the area, but Bozeman, MT is similar. The houses are massively overpriced. My buddies say look how much I'm making on the house.... I then ask did you sell? You didn't make anything. That area is due for a hipster crash.

$500k for a shitty built subdivision house in MT where there's millions of acres to build? Great friends out there, but that's an area due for a crash of 30-40%. Not housing related, but they have bad food there surprisingly. Real bad. You have to drive an hour to get good stuff.

Well, you are paying for the location. That adds a premium to the price.

The Avimor community north of Downtown Boise is very nice. Foothills hiking trails right out the door. But as my wife complained, where are the trees? It’s high desert, which is fine by me. Very cold winters and very hot summers. But mostly white people.

We bought a place very walkable from downtown Greenville and the very beautiful Falls Park on the Reedy and Swamp Rabbit Trail. Less black people in SC than Maryland, surprisingly, and while hot and humid summers, Maryland’s are actually worse. The current Maryland home goes live this week, and if we net 93% of the sales price, we’d only have paid $140k for our Greenville home.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Less black people in SC than Maryland, surprisingly, and while hot and humid summers, Maryland’s are actually worse.

I can confirm that Maryland summers are hot and humid! As in I could probably move to Florida and not notice the difference. Almost definitely not retiring here, but not because of the weather.

Misc says

I'm gonna have to disagree. You see over the last few months the Biden administration has been throwing gold bricks off the Titanic. In the case of the Treasury Department this has meant issuing longer dated Bonds. The big banks have been scoffing them up, but the amount issued drove up the yields. The new Treasury secretary under Trump ain't gonna play that game and has stated that he issuing shorter term securities.

Also, the Fed is gonna stop its QT operations. This will free up some cash flow.

I'd say that over the next few months mortgage rates are gonna go down as the market manipulations end.

Doesn't change the demographic effect nor the fiscal dominance effect, tho.

The median home price is the second worst measure for home prices, after “average home prices” (sum of all home prices divided by number of homes). Today, there are far better methods available, based on huge amounts of data from all sources, including public records, with sales-pairs relationships.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/21/buyers-strike-crushes-green-shoots-of-demand-for-existing-homes-amid-surging-supply-active-listings-days-on-market/

zzyzzx says

I can confirm that Maryland summers are hot and humid! As in I could probably move to Florida and not notice the difference.

Never got the negativity towards humidity. I wear pants and long sleeves in IL and we get just as much humidity as FL or other east coast states for parts of the year. We get IWOG wet bulbed.

AmericanKulak says

This is the only stat that should be focused on if you're looking at value. Literally the only one. There's so many layers to it. Inventory can go up for probably 50 reasons. You need to figure those out.

For FL I'm guessing boomers and the older generations are starting to die and the family doesn't want the home. That's where the boomer crash would come from. Not from when they likely already sold their lifetime home, that's already done.

It's retirement areas that will take a beating. Hell some neighborhoods you couldn't even live there so you're forced to sell it because you're too young by the HOA rules.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/26/inventory-of-new-houses-for-sale-highest-since-2007-builders-push-mortgage-rate-buydowns-price-cuts-and-incentives/

Where though? I'm guessing hipster places that over built in the last 5 years when interest rates were low. That's not a bust, that's just bad planning. Austin, Denver, Nashville, etc. Not happening in fly over country for the most part. A couple big cities can shift the national narrative which is kind of bull shit. I give no shits if Denver overbuilt. I don't live in Denver.

Nobody's buying.



There's only one way out, and prices will remain sticky upwards, until they aren't.

Selling is not always a choice, sometimes it's mandatory from life changes. Eventually those changes will pile up.

AmericanKulak says

Nobody's buying.



There's only one way out, and prices will remain sticky upwards, until they aren't.

Selling is not always a choice, sometimes it's mandatory from life changes. Eventually those changes will pile up.

If those are the only types of listings that come onto the market, they will sell fast and for full price. We need builders building.

Glock-n-Load says

We need builders building.

That's the only way prices go down. Happening in some regions due to demand and then people not buying. Short inventory here and little to no building. Our prices just go up (shrug).

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Buyers are acting like they are in a deflationary environment, which means they sit on sidelines thinking prices will continue to drop.

For us, we bought our new 3 bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from the white sand beach of the Florida panhandle in 2016 for $187,000.

Everything returns to the mean which I figure 4% annual appreciation over a +7 year timeline, so our townhome should be around $260,000 , whereas it could sell for $335,000 in early 2022.

A couple each earning $30K a year could afford a $260K townhome if the 30 year mortgage rate is 5.5% or less.

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https://rubino.substack.com/p/the-weirdest-housing-bubble-ever

So How Does This Resolve?
A normal housing boom ends with a bust in which prices are cut and mortgage interest rates fall sufficiently to make houses affordable again. But this is not a regular market, because young families don’t earn enough to get anywhere near today’s real estate. So something more extreme has to happen.

Not only do home prices and/or interest rates have to fall hard, but incomes on the lower rungs of the economic ladder have to rise dramatically. And it’s not clear how those two things can happen simultaneously. Like I said, very weird.

Looks like there was some slight overbuilding in Texas. About 60k families net move into Texas per year from other states. Over the last few years there has also been about 100k families moving into Texas internationally. Looks like the numbers moving in from overseas has dropped. Even so, it only looks like about a 6 month period before the excess inventory is absorbed by migration. There may be a little price decline, but probably not substantial.

Yes Patrick as Austin was one of the first metro areas to show a large increase in housing costs starting around late 2020, so its no surprise rents are dropping this much there

Texas real estate market is as much boom-bust as Florida

Even the proverbial cheerleader for real estate industry shows its a cooling rental market: https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/austin-tx/
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https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/foreclosure-prevention-refinance-and-fpm/2024/Q2

We shouldn't bail out homeloaners or banks.

We should have incentives for builders to keep building, so people aren't paying top dollar for 60-70 year old tick tack shacks.

If the rafters are toe nailed, cut the price 20% right off the bat.

Pound those prices to the ground; if you were depending on house appreciation to retire, you were double dumb. Dumb for missing out on 30-40 amazing years of stock market run up, dumb for thinking to think you're getting 6x median income for your ancient housing.

Just sold our house. Five offers. Escalation clauses kicked in getting us 6% over list. Great realtor. Advised correctly on setting price below what we expected to accept to encourage a bidding war which it did. Her service included an interior decorator who advised us on getting the home model ready, and a professional photographer. We accepted the second highest offer as it was an all cash offer with a quick close date and no charge rent back for 1.5 months. Boomer couple. The highest was a realtor which saved us 2.5% commission, but she hadn’t secured financing and put very little earnest money down. Too risky, but it did boost the escalation prices in the other offers. The third best offer was a 30’s something couple who seemed to be at the limit of their financing capability and just missed out. We did set a new comp for the hood, 5% higher than a similar model sold for a few months ago.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/foreclosure-prevention-refinance-and-fpm/2024/Q2

What have I told you DOGE? They're not going to foreclose this round. Not happening. It's way cheaper with forbearance, banks learned bigly around 2008. Most loans are performing as well. The bad ones you toss them under the bed for 2-4 months until the homeowner gets back on their feet.

That's how they handled it in the 70-90's because the loans were legit and my dick couldn't just go out and buy a house. I lived this for 15 years. Meet 1k people and ask them WFT were you thinking? That was my life. The Big Short is one of the few Hollywood movies that is accurate.

There's a little problem in Florida on the Gulf side; people don't like the hurricanes, increased insurance, HOA fees, and property taxes.

My friend is having difficulty selling her little condo near Sarasota.

Elevator: "Going down...."

clambo says

There's a little problem in Florida on the Gulf side;

No hurricanes on the Atlantic side or just much less frequent and/or powerful? I realize they can travel from West to East overland but that's not what I'm talking about.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Just sold our house. Five offers. Escalation clauses kicked in getting us 6% over list. Great realtor. Advised correctly on setting price below what we expected to accept to encourage a bidding war which it did. Her service included an interior decorator who advised us on getting the home model ready, and a professional photographer. We accepted the second highest offer as it was an all cash offer with a quick close date and no charge rent back for 1.5 months. Boomer couple. The highest was a realtor which saved us 2.5% commission, but she hadn’t secured financing and put very little earnest money down. Too risky, but it did boost the escalation prices in the other offers. The third best offer was a 30’s something couple who seemed to be at the limit of their financing capability and just missed out. We did set a new comp for the hood, 5% higher than a similar model sold for a few months ago.

Location?

The hurricanes are more frequent evidently on the Gulf side of Florida.

Either way people sometimes get tired of being in a panic over things which are out of their control.

GNL says

Location?

Montgomery County, MD, North Bethesda-Rockville-Gaithersburg general area.

clambo says

The hurricanes are more frequent evidently on the Gulf side of Florida.

Either way people sometimes get tired of being in a panic over things which are out of their control.

Have to factor in or discount price based on property insurance cost as the its part of calculating cap or capitalization rate for landlord investors, and also banks figure out what the monthly home ownership cost is such as principal, interest, HOA assessment fee, property insurance and property tax when lending out mortgages.

.............................

Forbes lists its January 2025 research of property insurance company rates in Florida

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/homeowners-insurance/florida-best-homeowners-insurance

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AD says

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

Then you gotta add in flood insurance.

Misc says

AD says

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

Then you gotta add in flood insurance.

Not everyone in Florida, as we live about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle and the FEMA map was updated this year to continue to show up not in a flood zone and also the map update shows that previous homes in our HOA that were in the flood zone are no longer in the flood zone.

Misc says

AD says

On average it is around $2,000 per year to insure a Florida home with replacement value of $350,000

Then you gotta add in flood insurance.

Figure on average about $80 a month for flood insurance in addition to $180 a month for property insurance, so $260 a month for insurance compared to maybe spending $120 a month for insurance in a "comparable home in the middle of the USA"

But the $140 a month more for insurance is the premium for living in a home within about a 30 minute walk of white sand beaches and clear water of the Gulf of America

.

With Florida property owners already paying more than four times the national average for home insurance, there is good reason to be nervous.

While home insurance rates increased 19.8% between 2021 and 2023, America's average rate of $2,377 was still far below the average rate of $10,996 paid by Florida homeowners.

U.S. average insurance: $2,377
Florida average insurance: $10,996
https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2024/04/01/florida-homeowners-insurance-rates-highest-rising-how-much-cost/73104723007/

As of 2024, the average cost of homeowners insurance in Florida is projected to be approximately $11,759, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous year. This figure is significantly higher than the national average of around $2,377, highlighting Florida’s unique risks, including hurricanes and flooding.

For context, Florida’s home insurance costs are substantially higher than other high-risk states like:

Louisiana: $6,354 (2023), projected $7,809 (2024)
Oklahoma: $5,444 (2023), projected $5,711 (2024)
Texas: $4,456 (2023), projected $4,437 (2024)
Mississippi: $4,312 (2023), projected $4,482 (2024).
In fact, Florida’s rates are nearly 12 times higher than those in Vermont, which has the lowest average premium at $918 per year.

Additionally, six of the 10 most expensive cities for homeowners insurance in the U.S. are located in Florida, all with average annual rates above $11,000.

https://www.greatflorida.com/blog/2024/how-much-is-home-insurance-in-florida/#:~:text=Average%20Cost%20of%20Homeowners%20Insurance,to%20their%20vulnerability%20to%20hurricanes.

Would like to see the median, but I bet it's much higher than the national average.

Grok:

I assume you're asking for the median home insurance cost in Florida. Based on the most recent data available as of March 05, 2025, the average annual homeowners insurance premium in Florida varies depending on the source and coverage specifics, but I’ll clarify that "median" data isn’t explicitly provided in most studies—averages are more commonly reported. However, I can give you a solid estimate based on the averages, which are often close to medians in large datasets unless heavily skewed.

From the information I have:
One reliable source indicates the average annual home insurance cost in Florida for 2024 is around $2,288 for a policy with $300,000 in dwelling coverage (Policygenius, 2024). This translates to about $191 per month.

Another source suggests a much higher average of $4,419 per year (or roughly $368 per month) for a policy with a 2% hurricane deductible, while it’s $2,401 per year (about $200 per month) without it (Insurance.com, 2025).

A more extreme figure comes from Insurify, estimating Florida’s average at $10,996 per year in 2023 (approximately $916 per month), projected to rise to $11,759 in 2024 (around $980 per month), though this likely reflects higher coverage levels or coastal areas prone to greater risk.

These discrepancies arise because Florida’s insurance costs fluctuate wildly based on location (coastal vs. inland), coverage amount, deductibles, and risk factors like hurricanes. The national average for comparison is around $2,377 per year (or $198 per month), meaning Florida’s costs are consistently higher—often 2 to 4 times the U.S. average.

Since you asked for the "median," and exact median figures aren’t directly cited, the middle ground of these averages—considering typical policies with $250,000 to $350,000 in dwelling coverage—suggests a likely median range of $2,288 to $4,419 annually (or $191 to $368 monthly) for a standard Florida homeowner in 2024/2025. The lower end ($2,288) might better reflect inland areas with less hurricane exposure, while the higher end ($4,419) aligns with broader statewide averages including coastal risks.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/XGlFB79TVe5ukCUPdiGDHzrnj

From what I hear from Florida Real Estate Youtubers, for non-Palatial ordinary homes a few miles inland, it's between 1-2% of home price - $4 and $8k/year - for a $400k house.

Another reason for sellers to greatly discount selling prices.

AmericanKulak says

With Florida property owners already paying more than four times the national average for home insurance, there is good reason to be nervous.

While home insurance rates increased 19.8% between 2021 and 2023, America's average rate of $2,377 was still far below the average rate of $10,996 paid by Florida homeowners.

U.S. average insurance: $2,377
Florida average insurance: $10,996
https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2024/04/01/florida-homeowners-insurance-rates-highest-rising-how-much-cost/73104723007/

We pay about $1900 annually for HO-3 insurance on our townhome (replacement value of $280,000 and 2% deductible) about 2 miles from the white sands beaches of the Florida panhandle. We are not required to have flood insurance, but it would cost us about $40 a month for flood insurance.

We were paying about $700 back in 2016 when we bought our brand new townhome (3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, and 2 car garage)

.

Some other things I'm discounting:

Old fashioned, out of date by 3 generations non-walk in closet with accordion or slide doors in the Master: -7% of home price
Grossly obsolete no access to bathroom from Master: -7% of home price

Even pre-PET Computer era homes have a bathroom accessible directly from Master.

Sellers need to update the home to minimal standard set 50 years past to expect anything like average prices. Al Bundy's Master almost certainly has direct bathroom access and probably a walk-in (perhaps not by much) closet.

Be tough, Buyers! It's up to the seller to update the house to ancient standards long since established back when Fly Robin Fly and Nutbush City Limits were hit songs, or discount heavily. Unless it's a genuinely finely made Victorian-era house with gables. IE Not found in a suburban subdivision and made postwar.

Keeping in mind USB wall ports in the Kitchen and Master are already standard in most "Middle Class" homes (and RVs!) built the past 5-7 years

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

GNL says

Location?

Montgomery County, MD, North Bethesda-Rockville-Gaithersburg general area.

Yep, not surprised at all. Who was your Realtor, he/she might be a client of ours?

AmericanKulak says

Keeping in mind USB wall ports in the Kitchen and Master are already standard in most "Middle Class" homes (and RVs!) built the past 5-7 years

Even so, that is a quick easy handy man install.

AmericanKulak says

It's up to the seller to update the house to ancient standards long since established back when Fly Robin Fly and Nutbush City Limits were hit songs, or discount heavily.

-- How did you manage to preserve your mid-century modern house in such original condition?
-- Mostly by laziness and having no money.

Eric Holder says

-- How did you manage to preserve your mid-century modern house in such original condition?
-- Mostly by laziness and having no money.

Pretty much. Maybe I'll play with zillow tonight and find some hilarious delusions compared to new or recent builds.

EDIT: Holy Shit! I haven't looked since around Christmas but it looks like homeloaners finally got the message. Tons of houses now just over $200k that were ~$300k just a couple of months ago. The gaps are starting to open, at least with the 80s-90s houses and the new ones which were priced only $30-40k apart. Though some are still smoking Copium like this 1960s-era place that even Jeannie would find too small: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1405-Stewart-Ave-Melbourne-FL-32935/43466916_zpid/



Eyeballing it here but the non-new inventory under $300k has to have at least doubled, maybe tripled. Palm Bay area.

Waiting to see if townhouses in Sat Beach start coming down, nothing yet. Just before COVID there were plenty on the market.