patrick.net

https://www.redfin.com/news/home-sale-price-vs-list-price-2025/

The Typical Home Seller Wants $39,000 More Than the Typical Buyer Is Willing to Pay

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/home-sale-price-vs-list-price-2025/

a lot of buyers, especially landlord investors for townhomes in Panama City Beach, are staying on the side lines thinking prices will be lower in 2026

maybe prices just stay essentially the same or steady around 10% below all time high prices set in 2022 for the next few years while local household income and wages increase +3% annually

if prices need to decrease 20% from all time high set in early 2022 and townhome prices are already 10% below, then home prices are fairly priced in Panama City Beach because household income has increased at least 15% since early 2022

this is the type of reasoning that the Federal Reserve may be applying in regards to asset prices (home prices)

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WookieMan says

Snow birds from Canada are the same. Low spenders looking for warm weather for 2-4 months. Spring break and winter break are the big months for FL. Considering it's mostly service jobs that's not enough time to make good money. For blue collar work you have to be near the cruise ports. Otherwise it's restaurants or you need to be white collar.

Canuckistanis didn't come this year in previous numbers. They had a guy on who was originally from Montreal, speaks both French and Hanglish, built his business on Canadians, he's only getting calls to help sell, not buy this past Snowbird season.

Misc says

Well, it's been 3 years now since this thread started. Except for 2 single months of a decrease (about .1% each), housing on a national basis has been on a steady uptrend.

Massive inventory explosion. Asking prices dropping. Rents stagnant while builders slow greatly and cut way back on profitability.

And the cities with the biggest COVID era growth are dropping like a stone in both price and rent.

Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Worst March since 2009. West, South, Midwest, Northeast All Get Crushed. Supply Surges to Highest since 2016
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/24/sales-of-existing-homes-drop-to-worst-march-since-2009-west-south-midwest-northeast-all-get-crushed-supply-surges-to-highest-since-2016/

Everybody talks about Darkstone, which was a minor player however much we hate them for ESG.

Nobody talks about Shaniqua Longnails, who with her Government Woke-at-home admin job decided to buy an AirBNB so she can get rich, like many others on TikTok. Now she just got a letter saying no more AIrBNB at Sunny Rest Townhouses, because the people who own-to-live there got tired of the parties

AmericanKulak says

And the cities with the biggest COVID era growth are dropping like a stone in both price and rent.

And that makes it look worse than it is. If you have the money it's cheaper to buy outside of the cities. My school district is small, but families that are 30-45 are moving here. So they're building 58 new homes which is insane for this area. I'm one of the insane. There was nothing for sale and we maxed out our current home and said F it, we're building.

There's 800 homes in my town. You can do the math on adding 58 new ones percentage wise. Hence why my viewpoint is so different than others here. I don't think it's that bad. Chicago, Atlanta, Denver and all the major metro areas will see an outflow. That's not a negative. Those that move will see cost of living plummet which is a net benefit. Just don't fuck up my rural town.

This guy is hilarious

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMLUopR_gd0

Oh yeah, the secret Fannie Mae list of condos buildings they won't finance in due to structural issues.

Misc says

AD says

I remember listening to Professor Robert Shiller on NPR and other news media sources and he stated over a long period that home prices should increase about 4% a year.

Over very long periods of time house prices come in at just a tad over the rate of inflation. Stocks come in at about 1% over the rate of inflation.

That's why I am a big proponent of trying to time the markets. With real rates of return sooooo low, it's the only way to have a chance at retirement other than pensions that are force paid by taxpayers.

From my recent research S&P 500 compound annual growth rate is around 10.5% for the last 30 years versus the compound average growth rate for inflation is about 2.4% (comparing CPI level for 1995 to that of 2025), whereas average inflation rate for 30 years is 2.8%.

A 50% stocks / 50% investment grade bonds fund likely would have yielded about 7.5% annually over the last 30 years.

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Potential Home buyers relaxing. Despite the best REALTOR(tm) agitprop, they know that the drops are just beginning

They're happy to wait. Why catch a falling knife?

To reverse the old Real Estate Pitch: "Take a break now, and get locked into a better price tomorrow"

The inflated price, not the rate, nor the economy, is what is putting buyers off.

AD says

A 50% stocks / 50% investment grade bonds fund likely would have yielded about 7.5% annually over the last 30 years.

The corporate tax rate in 1995 was 35%. Today it is 21% (so that alone is 21.5% of free gain). Add into that the extra coin the government sends towards corporate sales and WHAMO stocks outperform for that time period. Again, over very long periods of time stocks only do about 1% over the rate of inflation.

Government manipulation is all the over performance is.

AmericanKulak says

This guy is hilarious

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMLUopR_gd0

Oh yeah, the secret Fannie Mae list of condos buildings they won't finance in due to structural issues.

https://www.wjhg.com/2025/05/02/new-bill-proposes-aid-condominium-hoa-fees/

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Misc says

AD says

A 50% stocks / 50% investment grade bonds fund likely would have yielded about 7.5% annually over the last 30 years.

The corporate tax rate in 1995 was 35%. Today it is 21% (so that alone is 21.5% of free gain). Add into that the extra coin the government sends towards corporate sales and WHAMO stocks outperform for that time period. Again, over very long periods of time stocks only do about 1% over the rate of inflation.

The capital gains are not realized so they are not taxed when accumulating in a retirement account as well as non retirement account.

Plus a married couple can get about $94,000 in tax free long term capital gains in 2025.

Even if the effective tax rate is 30%, a 10% annual return is reduced to 7% and the real or inflation adjusted return is at least 4%.

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AD says

Even if the effective tax rate is 30%, a 10% annual return is reduced to 7% and the real or inflation adjusted return is at least 4%.

Naw, I'm talking about the after tax earnings of the corporations themselves. Supposedly the financial wizards use a discounted cash flow method for valuing stocks. If earnings go from $.65 per share to $.79 per share because the federal government is collecting less in taxes...that boosts the share price. Compound this incremental earnings over 30 years and voila.

Now say that the 10 year treasury was yielding about 6.5% in 1995 and about 4.5% today and woops that discount rate boosts up the value of those share dramatically for today's interest rates.

Pure government manipulation. - There is no huge benefit to owning stocks over very long periods of time.

Eventually, the government manipulation ends.

MolotovCocktail says

100%.

AD says

https://www.wjhg.com/2025/05/02/new-bill-proposes-aid-condominium-hoa-fees/

Yep. And DeSantis is pushing major property tax reform.

I think the FL Leg is voting or just passed an extension for Condo inspections.

Why? Because Condo sales are in the toilet and have already spread to townhouses and SFH.

The real issue in Florida is homeloaner's insurance though, but the FL Leg won't do shit because they're deep in insurance industry's pocket.

AmericanKulak says

The real issue in Florida is homeloaner's insurance though

Previous Leg actions have contributed to the current insurance fuck up. So why do you think further bandaids are not going to fuck with it more?

MolotovCocktail says

Previous Leg actions have contributed to the current insurance fuck up. So why do you think further bandaids are not going to fuck with it more?

No, weak enforcement of the law prohibiting Key Personnel of "bankrupt" insurance companies from forming news ones.

These guys declare bankruptcy at the first gust of a hurricane. Supposed to be banned for years, come back in the aftermath running a new company.

They got wristslap fines. Also, the state legislature made a new law so that homeowner-hired independent adjusters cannot work on contingency to protect the scamsurance companies.

The real answer is to make homeowner's voluntary.

AmericanKulak says

The real answer is to make homeowner's voluntary.

Good luck getting a mortgage then.

MolotovCocktail says

Good luck getting a mortgage then.

Just have the FHA write loans with no insurance.

It's not like insurance pays anything. They just cancel the policy after 17 years of payments unless you've got $50k of legal fees to put up.

MolotovCocktail says

AmericanKulak says

The real issue in Florida is homeloaner's insurance though

Previous Leg actions have contributed to the current insurance fuck up. So why do you think further bandaids are not going to fuck with it more?

Have to examine the number of households versus housing stock or inventory.

How many of those homes are at least 50 years old ? 75 years old ?

Here is a chart for USA housing statistics since 1975.

AmericanKulak says

FHA "You don't need homeowners to apply for a loan"

Oh I see. More government idiocy to 'fix' prior government idiocy. My point stands.

MolotovCocktail says

Oh I see. More government idiocy to 'fix' prior government idiocy. My point stands.

Nah, we're just shifting the standards from "Pay my insurance special interests that donate to my campaign" to "You don't need insurance" We at least got rid of one special interest, though the builders are still there.

Another solution is make insurance companies pay premiums back plus 7% interest compounded per annum when they cancel you.

After all, they took the money for 10 years and never paid out, so service was never provided. Refund + opportunity cost loss is very fair.

7% is very generous - too low even - because insurance companies take your premium and invest much of it and get far better deals than a retail buyer could ever.

AD says

Here is a chart for USA housing statistics since 1975.

So? What are you? DeficitHawk's alter ego?

AmericanKulak says

Nah, we're just shifting the standards from "Pay my insurance special interests" to "You don't need insurance"

MolotovCocktail says

AmericanKulak says

Nah, we're just shifting the standards from "Pay my insurance special interests" to "You don't need insurance"

"No, don't eliminate one special interest from the equation. We might as well keep them all and not intervene".

Dude, making insurance voluntary IS downsizing government regulation.

Another one I want is cops can't cite for not wearing safety belts, at least to over 18 -year olds.

Let Allstate and StateFarm pay to enforce their policies.

If you have StateFarm and the StateFarm "Good Neighbor" Crown Vic flashes it lights, they can fine you the money.

But not County Sheriff or City Police.

Why should taxpayers pay to enforce insurance policies? Let Allstate use it's Good Hands to pay for the Allstate highway patrol to ticket Allstate customers.

"Ah shit, everybody buckle up, I see the Yellow Jacket State Farm Interceptor"
"Don't we have Allstate?"
"No I changed it last month"

I never paid less for insurance than when I lived in NH. Auto Insurance wasn't mandatory.

The further away Good Hands and Good Neighbor are from me, the less they can molest and spy on my wallet.

Getting them out of my house is even better.

People have lots of theories as to why America became so risk-adverse, but there's one huge industry they've ignored.

AD says

Yep, another issue.

The average home today is far more expensive relative to income, and far older too.

I wonder how Hedonics is gonna play "You're actually better of because" with that piece of data

AmericanKulak says

Dude, making insurance voluntary IS downsizing government regulation.

The government shouldn't even be in the fucking house lending biz at all.

MolotovCocktail says

The government shouldn't even be in the fucking house lending biz at all.

Yep. But making insurance non-mandatory is one more big step.

I can't even begin to think how many nanny state laws in our country are actually due to Insurance Companies lobbying.

AmericanKulak says

But making insurance non-mandatory is one more big step.

Where is home insurance a government mandate? Around here, the only entity requiring home insurance is one's loan company. If you have no mortgage, no one requires you to have insurance. Not even flood insurance. Not prudent, however.

AmericanKulak says

The average home today is far more expensive relative to income, and far older too.

yep average age about 45 years old for a USA home

I agree as far as currently being more expensive as far as monthly housing costs (mortgage, property tax and insurance, HOA fee, etc) as a percentage of household income

but the air is gently being released from the housing balloon or asset bubble while household income continues to increase annually by about 2.5% ; I see this with townhomes on the east end of Panama City Beach

........

FHA loans require insurance, and as the biggest single lender, set the pace.

Get the FHA out of the insurance business. They can insure their loan value... which would have a beneficial effect. Imagine being an insurance company asked to insure a tranche of certain... risky profiles.

Or get the gov out of home loans entirely, which would also have many beneficial effects.

Don’t forget that Biden was paying over a million mortgages.

In USA, median household income is around $80,000 and the median home price is around $400,000

Likely there is no way they can qualify for a mortgage unless it is less than 5% :-(

AD says

In USA, median household income is around $80,000 and the median home price is around $400,000

Likely there is no way they can qualify for a mortgage unless it is less than 5% :-(

Whole system is based on permanent inflation, because it makes people who run the system money. If health insurance went away, cost of healthcare would drop like a rock. If government stopped subsidizing borrowing, costs would drop. It's a shit system really, because it is ran for the benefit of the few. And it's in every damn industry, everything is like that. From food production, to cars to houses to healthcare.