patrick.net

EBGuy says

Going to hit the 40 million mark any day now. Just two more weeks

EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman

California is like Illinois as far as population growth rate. New home construction accordingly should be at a slow rate unless there is a considerable supply of +75 year old homes that cannot be refurbished/modernized and salvaged.

2011 37,636,311
2012 37,944,551
2013 38,253,768
2014 38,586,706
2015 38,904,296
2016 39,149,186
2017 39,337,785
2018 39,437,463
2019 39,437,610
2020 39,538,223
2021 39,142,565
2022 39,142,414
2023 39,198,693
2024 39,431,263 (estimated)

AmericanKulak says

zzyzzx says
There are 500,000 more people selling their homes in the U.S. than those looking to buy them

I wonder if that includes Builders?

Yeah, I think number of sellers is based on number of housing units (single detached, townhome, condo) for sale, so an independent builder that may have 20 units unsold and that counts as 20 sellers

.

a lot of you guys count appreciation, which works in blue states and big cities. best part about country though, is no appreciation. keeps all the speculators from buying to rent because it barely pencils out. otherwise it would be same rat race and government policies that want renters instead of owners like they have in blue states.

Fortwaye says

a lot of you guys count appreciation, which works in blue states and big cities. best part about country though, is no appreciation. keeps all the speculators from buying to rent because it barely pencils out. otherwise it would be same rat race and government policies that want renters instead of owners like they have in blue states.

Yes, appreciation of housing value just means more housing inflation.

But even at a rate of 3% that is sustainable assuming overall annual inflation is around 2%.

It all costs down to affordability and living standard or living conditions. This would mean less illegal immigrants overcrowding of homes such as in Manassas Park, Virginia.

Hopefully we are not in a spiral down as far as quality of life or standard of living.

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california was illegal haven, and it had massive housing inflation. i do think 2 are related. it doesn’t keep them out.

WookieMan says

"And how do they know how many buyers are in the market?"

From Real Estate Agents/offices. Is that rocket science?

Fortune: There are 500,000 more people selling their homes in the U.S. than those looking to buy them

WookieMan says

"How do they know?"

From Real Estate Agents/offices.

The_Deplorable says

Fortune: There are 500,000 more people selling their homes in the U.S. than those looking to buy them

WookieMan says
"How do they know?"

From Real Estate Agents/offices.

The number of buyers is not reported. No one ever asked our office about buyers ever. Listings are the only metric that can be tracked mostly via entry into MLS systems. Plenty of agents get buyers at open houses how could they be reported if they don't follow up?

There's no way to track the number of buyers. It's likely based off search result algorithms and loan applications. I built my house so technically a buyer. My mom bought my house. At what point were we counted as buyers? Never. Cash buyer. Never counted.

It's clickbait. I wrote our monthly newsletter for 15 years. I participated in the clickbait. They might do a sample of randoms and extrapolated from there, but that's inaccurate no different than election polls. We have no idea how many buyers there are.

Links for zerohedge, Redin and Fortune all saying the exact same headline means nothing. SHOW me where the data comes from. No one can. Not links with copied articles. The actual data, not random analysis and guessing with no proof. That's what these articles are.

AD says

Is there an endless supply of those with "ill gotten cash from Asia" ? what is the breakdown of this as far as country ? is it mostly China ?

Only about 0.3% of homes are bought/sold in California each year. It doesn't take a tsunami of Rich Kids from Communist China to prop up the insane house prices here, - only a trickle.

There's plenty enough of those from Taiwan and the diaspora in Southeast Asia if not a single one of them ever comes from Communist China again. And you didn't even mention India. Yes, yes, I know: India is a poor country. Because of its massive population the tiny fraction of rich over there is a massive number. It is particularly even more massive for the housing market here when their Rich Kids aspire to live in a postage-stamp size slice of the US where only 0.3% of homes are sold/bought each year.



AD says

I look at how well tech stocks are doing to gauge the supply of younger folks with cash (from their RSU's in tech companies).

And when the S&P 500 has a lackluster year, that tells me its not good for California's economy especially its state government finances.

RSU is treated by federal and state as ordinary income (not capital gains) when vested. When I was "awarded" those, I never put the unvested ones on my balance sheet because they go "poof!" if I got laid off.

A member of my household gets RSU a few times a year in one of the household name companies. The vesting period is staggered over multiple years. Do you think he cares if the value of the stock goes down when the "value" of some of the older RSU's are up hundreds of percent? This is in a state where only 0.3% of homes change hands each year.

You can hate me and (and Patrick and the rest of us) for choosing to stay here with family and friends. Sticks and Stones.

Fortwaye says

california was illegal haven, and it had massive housing inflation.

For rentals, where they pack in like rats. Not for buying.

I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

GNL says

I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

I guess they statistically sample the real estate offices to Century 21, Coldwell Banker, etc and ask them how many listings (sellers) they have and how many clients their buyers agents have.

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AD says

GNL says

I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

I guess they statistically sample the real estate offices to Century 21, Coldwell Banker, etc and ask them how many listings (sellers) they have and how many clients their buyers agents have.

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Statisticians can be pretty damn accurate and highly paid to be.

B.A.C.A.H. says

You can hate me and (and Patrick and the rest of us) for choosing to stay here with family and friends. Sticks and Stones.

I don't hate Patrick and the rest of you all in California. I do not like its politics including the Chicom-funded propaganda coming from Hollywood.

I have some connection to Patrick since he and I graduated from UM Ann Arbor and we are both engineers (as he was an computer/electrical engineering major and I was a mechanical engineering and industrial engineering dual major).

That was a pleasant surprise to know after I signed up for Patrick.net after seeing Patrick on ABC Nightline.

I loved visiting California for work and visiting places like Truckee and Laguna Beach.

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And I got all over Eman cause he constantly was hyping California and his landlord portfolio in that state.

And the way he presented was he was exploiting the housing shortage and crisis there, which just makes it economically intolerable for the working class.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Sticks and Stones.

Please comment on this: 40% of Californians are on Medicaid

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AD says

GNL says
I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

I guess they statistically sample the real estate offices to Century 21, Coldwell Banker, etc and ask them how many listings (sellers) they have and how many clients their buyers agents have.

99% of agents don't count the number of ACTUAL buyers they have. They might be under reporting because of tire kickers and people that can't get pre-approved. A buyer agent might have 30 buyers in their CRM pipeline but don't count them. We still live in our current house and people still keep asking us they can buy our place because they see us building.

Cities that's more difficult. That's where there's a lack of buyers. It's an impossible metric to track. At least 20 people have asked us when we're selling. Those 20 buyers didn't get counted that asked us. This is a town of 2k people (including kids). The buyers are there.

As I've said cities and major metros bring the numbers way down if there's a way to even track the amount of buyers in the first place. It's highly likely this 500,000 number for sellers outnumbering buyers is simple city homes and people leaving. I've got a ton of 25-35 year old electricians, plumbers, construction workers with good wages living around me. Those guys don't want to be in the city. Most get work in suburbs 30 minutes away commute. They live here for half the cost.

It's not that I know more, but it's what I witness in surrounding towns. A lot of white collar professionals as well. They'd rather commute than pay double the price for say a place like Naperville or Crystal Lake, IL. Chicago is still slowly dying as a city and that's the majority of the states population loss or movement. For every 1 person moving in I'd guess 5 move out. Could be in state still. Big factor is Chicago schools suck and crime. That's most cities though.

@Wookieman

That doesn’t make sense in regards to my comment. Unless you thought they = realtors.

Loan Applications, good measure.

Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell again in the latest reporting week, having collapsed by 39% from the same week in 2019, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Mortgage applications are an early indicator of demand in the housing market, preceding “pending sales” and “closed sales” for this period.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/04/demand-in-the-housing-market-just-got-even-worse-as-supply-piles-up/

40% down from pre-COVID is a sign of serious buyer disinterest.

WookieMan says

"The number of buyers is not reported. No one ever asked our office about buyers ever. Listings are the only metric that can be tracked mostly via entry into MLS systems."

So who is buying the houses your office is selling? The Easter Bunny or the Great Pumpkin?

AmericanKulak says

Loan Applications, good measure.

Yeah the Wolfman at Wolf Street website warned all the way back in 2021 about another housing bubble

The current purchase mortgage application level is at 1995 levels and worse than the housing bust of 2009-2012

See below graph from Calculated Risk Blog , and the 2020-2022 run up was about 40% below 2005 levels :-/




,

AD says

Please comment on this: 40% of Californians are on Medicaid

Sanctuary state.

AD says

GNL says

I assume they could/would estimate the number of buyers out there by using polls/questionnaires. Or using some kind of average based on first time buyers and age of move up buyers?

I guess they statistically sample the real estate offices to Century 21, Coldwell Banker, etc and ask them how many listings (sellers) they have and how many clients their buyers agents have.

.

As long as the collection of the information is consistent across time, the change in the statistic is likely accurate even if the absolute value is wildly off. For example, if the collected data double-counts every buyer, the absolute value of the statistic is off by a factor of 2; however, to say the number of buyers went up 20% or down 20% would still hold completely accurate.

AD says

EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman

Given our out migration problem, two more weeks is the joke (how about 25 years?!)...
State planners don’t see a turnaround in the offing, either. Consider that in 2007, demographers projected that California’s population would grow from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. But today, the 2050 projection is for just 40 million Californians.
https://www.governing.com/workforce/californias-long-term-population-slide-threatens-its-economy

EBGuy says

AD says

EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman

Given our out migration problem, two more weeks is the joke (how about 25 years?!)...
State planners don’t see a turnaround in the offing, either. Consider that in 2007, demographers projected that California’s population would grow from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. But today, the 2050 projection is for just 40 million Californians.
https://www.governing.com/workforce/californias-long-term-population-slide-threatens-its-economy

That means any "new residential construction" in California is likely demolition of old residential units, like at least 75 years old. California's median and average age is about 1 year less than the national average.

And it could be the birthrate of those born in California (as well as rich Asian migrants and poor Latin American immigrants) compensates for the exodus so that the population remains fixed around 40 million for the next 20 years.

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AD says

And it could be the birthrate of those born in California (as well as rich Asian migrants and poor Latin American immigrants) compensates for the exodus so that the population remains fixed around 40 million for the next 20 years.

Population seems to have leveled off at about 40 million. My guess, though, is that people generally reporting high (taxed) incomes are leaving and being replaced by those who report low or no income. Despite ever-increasing state income taxes, California is finding it hard to raise the revenue to feed the wasteful spending as well as the 50% that are leeching off the government system. On the corporate tax side... are booming silicon valley businesses growing fast enough to compensate for the companies fleeing the state?

(Explains why Wookie seems confused.)

https://www.newsweek.com/americans-slashing-prices-home-listings-2081817

Americans Are Slashing Prices on Home Listings

SunnyvaleCA says

Population seems to have leveled off at about 40 million. My guess, though, is that people generally reporting high (taxed) incomes are leaving and being replaced by those who report low or no income. Despite ever-increasing state income taxes, California is finding it hard to raise the revenue to feed the wasteful spending as well as the 50% that are leeching off the government system.

Yep, like 40% of Californians are on Medicaid.

Hollywood, Silicon Valley and whatever is left of aeronautical manufacturing is not producing enough tax receipts to sustain California and keep it financially solvent.

Trump knows this and that is why he is experimenting by slightly closing the federal funds valve to California to see how Newsom responds.

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https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

Noooo...it's not 2007 - 2009 at all!

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

MolotovCocktail says

Noooo...it's not 2007 - 2009 at all!

So the 30 yr mortgage rate is around 6.8%

why not offer a rate of 6% if the buyer puts down a +20% deposit ? it would seem low risk if there is a remote chance housing prices would drop 15% from the date that the home is purchased

I remember hearing on Bloomberg radio (WBBR) that one main reason the mortgage rates are high is that mortgage bond buyers want a higher rate since there is risk housing prices will sink and create the risk of mortgage defaults.

That's hard to reconcile with the fact that a very large majority of mortgages are backed by the federal government such as Veteran Affairs, FHA, etc.

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zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1l4kubk/someone_sold_the_exact_same_condo_unit_as_mine/

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

I’m feeling disheartened and slightly sick. Any advice would be appreciated.

In my logical brain, I’m thinking this is a fairly simple problem. Hold onto property, rent at a loss, have less cash for a while, sell when it appreciates again.

But man, does it give me a pit in my stomach to know I’m basically $100k in debt right now, after almost two years of paying a pretty high mortgage no less.

For context, this is the exact same type of unit in the exact same building of my complex.

The success/failure of RE investment is not measured in two year periods. Heck, I even give my stonk picks 5 years to run.

AD says

it would seem low risk if there is a remote chance housing prices would drop 15% from the date that the home is purchased

Less risk than that if they pay monthly for two years. Lenders make all their money up front. They really just need a 5 year performing loan max and they're in the green no matter what. Would take a 50% collapse in housing prices.

The problem with 2006 was people defaulted month 4 or 5. Then stopped paying for 2 years. People are generally not defaulting early in the loan. Prices may drop, but these aren't the same loans now. I haven't seen this 1% down loan mentioned above. Also what is the credit score? Likely has to be close to 800 FICO score.

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas. The map above proves my point outside of a few interior states. Minnesota is obvious with metro flee from Minneapolis to cheaper suburbs or rural areas. Likely more due to race. I don't know about a few of the others inland. Also it's Zillow, so IDX data from the MLS. Not all home sales. Plenty of homes sell off market.

MolotovCocktail says

Someone sold the exact same condo unit as mine for $100k less than I have left on my mortgage in a HCOL area. I have to move soon.

Redditor's Condo
He won't get what he paid for
Ooooh Baby
He won't get what he's after....
Burnin' down the Mondo Condo

WookieMan says

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

I sort of agree with you but I suppose it depends on what we'd call a "crash".

According to the ®eal Estate web sites our sh*tbox in East SJ is down a bit more than $200K since the 2022 peak, about 15% or so. It doesn't "feel like" a crash to me, we did not borrow to buy at the peak.

WookieMan says

There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
There's not an incoming crash outside of coastal areas.

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Townhome prices in Panama City Beach have decreased about 10% from all time high set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%

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AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sorry, that belonged to George W.