patrick.net

Misc says

AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sorry, that belonged to George W.

Clinton policies led to the house bubble that started to burst around 2006.

Clinton left some real damage like with China free trade deal. We did not start to experience the bad effects of free trade until about 8 years after Clinton left office.

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MolotovCocktail says

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

UT - Salt Lake City. CO - Denver. ID - Boise. MT - Missoula and Bozeman. WV is within a short drive of DC and coastal areas. TN - Nashville. Nebraska who knows. MO - St. Louis. OK, who knows. Arkansas - who knows.

What is the median loss in the states listed versus the coastal areas? I'm not doing the work. You know the answer. Waaaaaaay less. OK, MO, Nebraska, Arkansas are all likely lower than 3-5% value drop. Rounding error basically.

AD says

Wookie meant "crash" as in a +35% crash like during Bill Clinton's housing crisis of 2006-2011

Sure he did.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

UT - Salt Lake City. CO - Denver. ID - Boise. MT - Missoula and Bozeman. WV is within a short drive of DC and coastal areas. TN - Nashville. Nebraska who knows. MO - St. Louis. OK, who knows. Arkansas - who knows.

What is the median loss in the states listed versus the coastal areas? I'm not doing the work. You know the answer. Waaaaaaay less. OK, MO, Nebraska, Arkansas are all likely lower than 3-5% value drop. Rounding error basically.

Your 'work' would be bullshit anyway.

AGAIN:

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-faces-housing-crisis-no-one-buying-homes-2083842

California Faces Housing Crisis: 'No One Is Buying Homes'
Published Jun 13, 2025 at 6:00 AM EDT

MolotovCocktail says

Your 'work' would be bullshit anyway.

AGAIN:

Then according to Wookie, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are 'coastal areas'.

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Jeez. Get a life.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Sure. Let him get away with posting crap on this and other rhreads.

MolotovCocktail says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude, the topic of this thread is "housing prices peak 2". The topic of this thread is not "let's try to prove Wookieman wrong".

Sure. Let him get away with posting crap on this and other rhreads.

Dude I told you my reasoning. The NATIONAL loses are due to coastal areas. Not a 2% loss in Arkansas or Oklahoma. Is it a loss, yes, I conceded that. But when you say prices are down everywhere and then post a map showing that's not true. -2% in Arkansas and -15% in FL is different. -5% in Oklahoma versus -15% in CA.

Not sure what is so hard to understand about this. The problem is in high priced coastal areas. If you can't understand that I'll have to get my special ED degree for you... or my 15 years of real estate experience. Just stay in your lane and be an online BS artist. Everyone here is just wrong. You know everything. I like to have conversations and you destroy every single one you're involved in. And it's usually wrong.

It's not even going down in rural CA. It's flat to modestly up depending on the county. Big cities like SF and LA are mostly decliners.

WookieMan says

Dude I told you my reasoning. The NATIONAL loses are due to coastal areas. Not a 2% loss in Arkansas or Oklahoma.

No. You changed your tune. You were just ranting about the 'coasts' vs Dumfuq Rural Illinois - no such logic was even mentioned until later when you felt forced to.

And most of your rant was filled with ad homenim invectives.

Now you are just trying to spin things otherwise.

MolotovCocktail says

No. You changed your tune.

Do you not know what coastal areas are dude? Losses on home sales at $200k in Arkansas versus home sales at $800k in CA make the national look way worse. It's coastal areas. A 2% loss in Arkansas is a nothing burger. A 15% loss in CA move the needle but doesn't really matter to much of the country.

What is hard to understand? I have no issues with coastal areas, it's just fact. A 2% drop in Arkansas versus a 10-15% drop in CA or FL is massively different. Oh god the world is dying. No people that overpaid in certain areas are eating it. My statement stands. The classic ad hominem BS as well. At least I spelled it right. You IWOG in disguise?

WookieMan says

A 2% loss in Arkansas is a nothing burger. A 15% loss in CA move the needle but doesn't really matter to much of the country.

I just look at the median USA housing price chart to gauge the general mood of the market and any trend

I like to examine on Wolfman's Wolf Street website the metro area charts

and I focus on 3 bedroom +1 car garage townhome market in Panama City Beach to get an idea on middle/working class real estate market , as well as gauge the vacation rentals investment market by examining condo price trends in Panama City Beach

.

AD says


EBGuy, I wonder if you are Eman




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Rufo

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

EBGuy

EBGuy = Christopher Rufo ? ? ?

WookieMan says

Do you not know what coastal areas are dude

^^^^ part of your tune is changing definitions. Once again, you got caught but insist otherwise.

Oklahoma isn't on the coast.

Some are not on the coasts.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sellers-flooding-home-market-while-175657593.html

How prices are still rising is an amazing feat though. IMO

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-rents-could-good-news-145527021.html

Falling Rents Could Be Good News for Inflation

MolotovCocktail says

^^^^ part of your tune is changing definitions. Once again, you got caught but insist otherwise.

Oklahoma isn't on the coast.

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas. Let me know how Oklahoma is dragging down national median. Might move it $2. The horror. If even that much. It doesn't matter nationally. Again do you not get what coastal areas are and trying to prove some not existent point? You're the one throwing in midwestern states where value barely dropped from already low values and a tiny percentage.

Good luck selling a house in OK for $20M. That's a normal day in CA. When the prices drop that drops national averages, median and price. That doesn't mean it's happening at that scale in OK or MO. Understand stats and geography. You might be in a market either not able to get in or losing your ass, that's not most the country if you account for land mass. Populated coastal cities drive national numbers. It's really not even a discussion.

Glock-n-Load says

Some are not on the coasts.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sellers-flooding-home-market-while-175657593.html

Wookie can't admit that he was wrong. So he gaslights.

WookieMan says

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas

More of you twisting things around because you can't admit you were full of shit.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

The bulk of the loses is in coastal areas

More of you twisting things around because you can't admit you were full of shit.

Is the national average not 80% based on coastal areas. A yes or a no. You put a map up not showing the percentage or median price of the non-coastal areas. Back up what you're talking about.

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-rents-could-good-news-145527021.html

Falling Rents Could Be Good News for Inflation

Yep, this is at 2020 rent prices: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1610-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87631272_zpid/

And that townhome HOA called Annabellas is about 50% owned by landlord investors

so if rent goes down, the price would at least would stay the same in an attempt to maintain a certain "cap rate" or ROI

I saw an article in Fort Lauderdale's Sun Sentental this week that shows out-of-state insurance carriers like State Farm and Progressive charge a lot less for Florida property insurance
.

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!

MolotovCocktail says

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!

Honestly, the truth is a real bitch to know. All I'm hearing is 1) prices are still rising and 2) Agents saying "This is a weird market". I think agents say things like this when the market turns.

https://patriotnewswire.com/deportation-the-real-fix-for-americas-housing-crunch/

Deportation: The Real Fix for America’s Housing Crunch!

MolotovCocktail says

More of those 'coastal states (only)' taking hits in the R/E!

Zillow.... lol. They don't have all the data. And these numbers are hysterical. So a $1M house in CA lost $50k? That's a joke after the increases we've seen. If you can't afford $50k loses don't buy in that market. Everyone else lost worst case $5k-10k in the none coastal areas or gained.

Not so for CA, OR, WA, TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MA and Maine. Coastal areas.

CO and WV are the outliers off the coast. Though WV is close to the coast as well.

The midwest gained or is within the realm of error on stats. Like I've said you clearly live on a different planet. The locations in the 2nd line drive national numbers because homes are expensive ON THE COASTS.

My statements stand and the hole without a ladder you dug is getting deeper and it's with your own evidence which is funny. These are also comical losses. You rent, I get it. That's fine. Don't portray the market falsely. 0.03% in IA? 0.06% in ND? 0.04% in SD? 0.08% in VA? 0.02% NM? The housing market is doomed!!!!! That's like not tipping $20 in these locations.

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Yeah Wookie, the Center Of Mass is closer to those regions where a starter single family detached home goes for at least $750K

What props up those regions like in California ? Are there enough rich krazy (and/or HI-1B) Asians coming from abroad to continue to buy there ? Are there enough tech jobs paying at least $300K a year for someone to buy a $1 million bungalow near San Jose ?

One thing is there is definitely a correlation between the S&P 500 / tech stocks and the fiscal health of California, including its state deficits.

Demographics is the most important socioeconomic factor as what happens to the baby boomer homes as well as the construction rate for new homes.

30% of Japan is over age 65: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-countries-with-the-highest-share-of-seniors/

% is over age 65 : Maine at 23%, Florida at 22% and California at 16% , and about 17.5% for USA

but about 47% of Florida is under age 40 (with 25% between age 20 to 40)

about 28% of California is between age 20 and 40

and Illinois it is around 25% (with 18% of Illinois above age 65)

.

WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/underwater-mortgages-negative-equity-charts-4e5978a1

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

Yes, I'll bow down to bullshit. 50+ new homes with 20-30 years of nothing. Must be ghosts. No one said other markets can't go down. You're the one gaslighting. Those markets are coastal. My point stands. Fly on a plane and go somewhere else instead of sitting at home. And go all "ad hominem" on this comment.

You're wrong. High value areas are eating it a little bit. Coastal. The rest of the country is fine outside of CO and AZ if we're talking inland. 0.04% matters? Not sure what planet you live on.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Coastal markets drive the national narrative. It's not even a debate.

Keep posting gaslighting bullshit because you can't admit you were wrong in your initial statement.

You have to look at the median sales price and volume of sales for each zip code, but I agree that the California, Texas, Colorado and Florida dominate a lot of the market.

That is why its best to examine by metro area. Austin has gotten clobbered.

.

AD says

What props up those regions like in California ?

Approximately 5% of the SF Bay Area economy is injections of venture capital. As the saying goes, that'll leave a mark. That said, I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy. The next downturn is going to leave a mark.
Mayor Lurie wants to close S.F. budget deficit by cutting roughly 1,400 city jobs
San Jose shrinks budget shortfall, prioritizes temporary shelters
The City Council previewed the proposed 2025-26 budget during a budget study session Wednesday, which drops the projected budget shortfall of $60 million to $35.6 million.
How Many California Cities are Running Huge Budget Deficits?

The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,
San Diego is over $300 million in debt.
The City of Sacramento has a $66 million budget deficit.
San Francisco has a $876 million budget deficit.
San Jose projected a $60 million budget shortfall, then ratcheted it down to $35.6 million, but is projecting a $52.9 million deficit for 2026.
The City of Fresno is facing a budget deficit of over $20 million in the 2026 budget. In 2025, the city expects to have an end-of-year surplus of nearly $15 million, but according to City Manager Georgeanne White, without federal American Rescue Plan Act dollars, 2025 could end up in the red, yourcentralvalley.com reports.
Oakland is facing a $268 million deficit over the next two fiscal years.
Berkeley has a $28M budget deficit.

EBGuy says

I don't know of any municipality or agency within California that isn't facing a fiscal crisis. And that's in an up economy.

We need DODGE out here. Sadly, all that was uncovered was swept under the rug and soon to be ignored. But if only that level of waste and fraud were exposed at all levels of government (and I'm sure there are epic levels of waste and fraud all around), we'd at least have a chance of averting financial collapse.

Looks like the Case/Shiller had another up month (new record high) recovering from a slight downturn from the previous 2 months.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=199&eid=243576#snid=243577

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Misc says

Looks like the Case/Shiller had another up month (new record high) recovering from a slight downturn from the previous 2 months.

Yup. Not gonna search for the comment but I said people get under contract in the spring and close when the kids are out of school. This is 100% true when it's to a new district.

Every spring this happens where people freak out that we're in a housing bust. Then May through September are when the real numbers hit as the contracts close. Reality is who goes shopping for homes during the holidays? It's only corporate relocation buyers or there's a good deal. Basically no demand and closings during Jan-April. And before anyone is a smart ass, there are closings, just not many and from desperate sellers. So numbers will be lower for sales and value.

I lived this life. I know how it works. It's seasonal. No different than road construction. Southern states are slightly different, but it's still about closing and moving when kids are out of school. The midwest you're not moving in January-March or shouldn't. Pure misery.

Once Thanksgiving hit we really wouldn't even take a listing. No buyers, we have to sell for less and it basically made our brokerage look bad with high market time and/or no sale. If they could wait, we'd ask them to hold out until at least late Jan. to get on the market.

EBGuy says

The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,

Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

EBGuy says

The City of Los Angeles has a $1 billion+ city budget deficit,

Thanks for a very well-written post EBGuy. I wonder if the respective muni bond ratings will suffer.

Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.

Chicago has most the population, but is a thorn in the rest of the state. Everything outside of Chicago is fully (mostly) funded. Yes property taxes are high, but you at least know you'll get your money in retirement. Fire, police, teachers in Chicago in 20 years are likely screwed when they go to retire. They'll likely get half of what they were expecting.

My Chicago cop friends about my same age are getting out at I think 47 from CPD. If it's around they'd still get the pension, but they want to get to SS years and work for a suburban department that is less risky. And yes I know pension people don't pay SS, but they work side gigs as security so it's W-2.

WookieMan says

Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.

Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Don't understand bonds, but they'll just raise property taxes. That's what they did in Chicago when pensions were on the verge of collapse.

Can't do that in LA or even the rest of the cities. Prop 13.

I did say property taxes, so I own that. I know of prop 13. That said they'll just jack up the gas tax, registration on vehicles, permits, sales tax you name it. Hell parking in the city they could double. EV since there's a high amount of them out there will be taxed higher.

Lived it in Chicago. They sold the Skyway to Indiana to cover debt. Parking meters for 100 years to a private company. Parking enforcement and fees. It's coming your way. I don't wish it upon you guys, but it's coming. For those that own great, but for the average citizen or renter, they will get a 10-20% hit somehow through random taxes.