housing prices peak 2

6996

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 1, 7:28pm

And Florida is no "Under $3000 insurance for SFH", not in this county or any Central Florida County. People who were paying $1200-1800 5 years ago are paying well over $3000 despite new roofs and raising their deductible substantially, regardless of age of distance from the ocean, in fact houses on the island are easily paying twice that. This is true from Hillsborough to Lake to Brevard.

This county hasn't had real hurricane damage or flooding in ages. it's in a "Nearly Dead Zone" stretching between Sebastian, FL and Brunswick, GA where hurricanes very seldom land due to vagarities of the Gulf Stream and Hydrography. When this region gets hit it's usually from a storm that entered the mainland from the Gulf, not the Atlantic, and lost most of it's strength over the land.

1990-2025 Storm Track: Yellow is Cat 1, Green is a Tropical Storm. Red, Orange, Purple Cat 2+

6997

Patrick 2025 Sep 1, 8:19pm

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/28/buyers-strike-pending-home-sales-drop-further-plunge-in-midwest-near-record-lows-in-all-regions-even-as-supply-balloons/

Buyers Strike: Pending Home Sales Drop Further, Plunge in Midwest, Near Record Lows in All Regions, as Supply Balloons
by Wolf Richter Aug 28, 2025

6998

WookieMan 2025 Sep 1, 8:39pm

MolotovCocktail says

No, no. One of our resident Housing Experts of PatNet insists this can only be happening in 'hipster' coastal states/cities, remember?

6999

AD 2025 Sep 1, 9:34pm

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

And Florida is no "Under $3000 insurance for SFH", not in this county or any Central Florida County. People who were paying $1200-1800 5 years ago are paying well over $3000 despite new roofs and raising their deductible substantially, regardless of age of distance from the ocean, in fact houses on the island are easily paying twice that. This is true from Hillsborough to Lake to Brevard.

This county hasn't had real hurricane damage or flooding in ages. it's in a "Nearly Dead Zone" stretching between Ft. Pierce, FL and Brunswick, GA where hurricanes very seldom land due to vagarities of the Gulf Stream and Hydrography. When this region gets hit it's usually from a storm that entered the mainland from the Gulf, not the Atlantic, and lost most of it's strength over the land.

FROM FLORIDA OFFICE OF INSURANCE REGULATION for estimates on HO-3 insurance for a $300,000 new construction single family detached home

7000

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 2, 12:08am

AD says

FROM FLORIDA OFFICE OF INSURANCE REGULATION for estimates on HO-3 insurance for a $300,000 new construction single family detached home

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

9 of those 14 rates are over $3000, and that's for NEW Construction. 10 if one rounds the $2,961 up to the nearest hundred for Universal.

Citizens is the State insurer of last resort and covers 1.2M properties, making it the top insurer in Florida, covering about twice as many as the #2 provider, State Farm. Universal is #3, just behind State Farm at about half a million. Apparently State Farm and Universal combined roughly equal Citizens.

https://floir.com/property-casualty/market-overview

The state average for Florida insurance is getting on $4,000 with wind coverage. And just shy of $3000 without.

AFAIK, Citizens required wind policy holders to add Flood, but Flood is not required of Private Insurance for state admitted policies.

7001

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 2, 12:28am

WookieMan says

Hipster

Curious to hear about Asheville, NC, which is apparently Hipster from what I hear (I haven't been and know nobody there).

7002

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 3:11am

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

WookieMan says

Hipster

Curious to hear about Asheville, NC, which is apparently Hipster from what I hear (I haven't been and know nobody there).

County overall is down. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/2156/buncombe-county-nc/

Asheville proper is down. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/50779/asheville-nc/

It's not massive but down. That one is a toss up for hipster and coastal. A little over 5 hours to Myrtle Beach, SC. Early morning wake up and you're at the beach before noon as long as you're not driving a Tesla, which a lot of people from Asheville probably do.

Like IL plenty of people make 5 hours trip up to their Wisconsin or Michigan lake houses. Just our prices are increasing. Hell I didn't post Cook county home to one of the most bitched about cities, Chicago and is up 2%: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/139/cook-county-il/

Molotov won't do the research. Hopefully now he understands where I'm coming from. But he doesn't understand the midwest. I have a 25% knowledge of FL real estate, but I'll trust what users who live there say.

Here's more.

Denver: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/11093/denver-co/ Down a lot. And yes Denver is the OG hipster city because of legal weed, Subaru's and 4 Runners being everywhere.

All the places in the longer comment above I've personally been to them all. So I don't just make shit up as accused of constantly and I will come with data. Getting annoyed by a troll (not you) that says I'm wrong. I believe you've said you're in Florida and AD is in Florida, I'll trust the words from the boots on the ground users. Not someone that probably never goes anywhere (again not you).

With real estate and stocks, prices change. A year from now my comments could be made to look wrong. But my recent comments I've proven coastal and hipster areas are down. The midwest is fine and increasing in all the links above. I'll have to do Texas and the other south areas. Gotta shower and get the kids going.

7003

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 7:08am

WookieMan says

Provide evidence. You won't.

I do, but you just engage in magical thinking otherwise.

Then you write pontificating volumes of contradictory statements laced by non-expert terms like 'hipster' fueled by not keeping track of what is purely imagination in your head vs reality.

All the while exposing how that your real issue is being triggered by my exposure of your constant bullshit, nothing more.

7004

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 7:10am

WookieMan says

All the places in the longer comment above I've personally been to them all.

So fucking what? That doesn't mean anything.

WookieMan says

So I don't just make shit up

Ibid.

7005

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 10:50am

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
All the places in the longer comment above I've personally been to them all.

So fucking what? That doesn't mean anything.

Okay. You haven't. So don't comment on it since you don't know the areas. Comment on what you know. I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing. Provide evidence or STFU.

7006

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 1:00pm

WookieMan says

Okay. You haven't.

More imaginary thinking, more bullshit.

7007

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 1:01pm

WookieMan says

I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing

That's all you do...not very good, either.

Again: this is only about you feeling threatened because your bullshit gets called out.

7008

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 1:19pm

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing

That's all you do...not very good, either.

Again: this is only about you feeling threatened because your bullshit gets called out.

When? No other user has. See a doctor buddy.

7009

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 1:21pm

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing

That's all you do...not very good, either.

Again: this is only about you feeling threatened because your bullshit gets called out.

When? No other user has.

More magical thinking

7010

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 8:19pm

MolotovCocktail says

More magical thinking

Keep debunking actual data. None of which you have posted. Show me how I'm wrong with hipster and coastal areas. I literally just gave you dozens of links. It took 5 minutes. You don't give ONE link. You don't know real estate and now you're marking my comments as personal. Because you know I'm right.

7011

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:19am

WookieMan says

you're marking my comments as personal. Because you know I'm right.

No, because they are personal attacks you post because your whole sense of self esteem is tied up with your bullshit 'expertise' on PatNet that is being outed. You can't handle that. It's pretty sad.

At this point, I can safely say the following is a sample truncated version of whatever interaction you have with ppl who threaten your bullshit 'rep' here on PatNet:

Me: Here is a snapshot of the beach mid afternoon.

Wookie: But the sky is blue.

Me: Yeah, and?

Wookie: AND? You don't know what you're talking about! I know everything about it, not you. I blew a professor and he gave me a passing grade that sez so. Here's a Iink that proves I know of the professor but doesn't prove the bullshit I just said otherwise.¹.I bet you have never even been to a beach! You also don't even own a pair of sunglasses. I know, because I dreamed all that up in my head. Prove me wrong! Where's the links?

Everyone reading that: WTF?

7012

WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 6:23am

MolotovCocktail says

Wookie: AND? You don't know what you're talking about! I know everything about it, not you. I blew a professor and he gave me a passing grade that sez so. Here's a Iink that proves I know of the professor but doesn't prove the bullshit I just said otherwise.1.I bet you have never even been to a beach! You also don't even own a pair of sunglasses. I know, because I dreamed all that up in my head. Prove me wrong! Where's the links?

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation, this one is worthy. You just make shit up dude. You have more ignores in a fraction of the time I've been on this site.

7013

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:25am

WookieMan says

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation

Never said that you did? Where did I say that?

WookieMan says

You just make shit up dude

That's your dept.

7014

WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 6:28am

MolotovCocktail says

Never said that you did? Where did I say that?

You just flagged one of my comments. For what. Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information unless it's in picture format. I can't help you with that. It's okay to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

7015

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:31am

WookieMan says

You have more ignores

You have 11, I have 6.

One PatNet member just complained to Patrick that a weeks worth of comments on a thread were missing. Patrick had to tell him it was because he blocked you that they were not visible.

I am often a troll. Even an outright asshole. So ppl block me for that and that's AOK. But it is for a purpose. In your case, outing bullshit posted by so-called experts that you took the bait on and won't let up.

And witnessing the sheer amount of psychological projection you engage in with your responses is an awesome site to behold, frankly.

7016

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:39am

WookieMan says

You just flagged one of my comments. For what. Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information unless it's in picture format. I can't help you with that. It's okay to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

Jesus dude. WTF is your problem?

You say: "Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation."

My response: "Never said that you did? Where did I say that?"

'That' being your claim that I am lying about you marking comments for moderation. That's what you wrote. Of course, you are going to claim otherwise

Full text of yours:

WookieMan says

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation, this one is worthy. You just make shit up dude. You have more ignores in a fraction of the time I've been on this site.

I never said that you mark comments for moderation, to which you claim I am lying about. Learn what a main subject sentence of a paragraph is, if weaseling out of what you actually said is your goal here.

WookieMan says

Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information

The ones I marked for moderation didn't have links and data or whatever. They were just ad hominem attacks that a 12 yr old can even do better.

7017

WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 10:12am

Comment 6998

You don't contribute anything here. You're here to just argue. You're the type that destroys sites like this that are fun. Ad, Panicans, Patrick and many others. Just those three I don't always agree with them. I don't shit on them. You're a troll. Own it and move on and let this site be what it was. Go to pasture bro.

7018

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 2:03pm

WookieMan says

Comment 6998

You don't contribute anything here. You're here to just argue. You're the type that destroys sites like this that are fun. Ad, Panicans, Patrick and many others. Just those three I don't always agree with them. I don't shit on them. You're a troll. Own it and move on and let this site be what it was. Go to pasture bro.

Ad hominem attack again.

Yeah. Calling out the truth of other people's bullshit is 'destroying sites'. Not.

It's the people who post said bullshit being called out who do.

7019

WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 2:08pm

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Comment 6998

Look at the comment. No bullshit. Let me know what is. I'll wait.

Throwing out Ad hominem is weak sauce. You're caught in your bull shit. It's fine. Just don't argue arguing when you're wrong. Not a good look. Click the links bud in the comment listed. You don't care as I think most here know you're a troll. Whatever makes your day bro. Just stop putting trash on this site.

7020

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 10:50pm

WookieMan says

Look at the comment. No bullshit. Let me know what is. I'll wait.

Why? Does nothing to disprove all the other bullshit you post here. I mean, just in the last 48 hours you've been caught red-handed posting complete bullshit. Can't be a CREDIBLE Housing Expert of PatNet when you keep doing that.

WookieMan says

Just stop putting trash on this site.

Calling out your bullshit isn't 'putting trash on this site'. It's called performing a public service.

WookieMan says

Click the links bud in the comment listed.

You mean like the link to the college professor you claimed to know and studied under? Your link there provided zero proof of that bullshit claim of that. A claim you felt necessary to make to only keep up with the bogus 'expert' rep you unhealthily crave in the first place but I challenged?

So what else is bullshit? Stories of you being a such and such or about your family? What can you actually prove about any of that? Nothing.

Nothing.

But you expect everyone to accept all that...and react defensively when someone calls you out on it. Hell your responses when you are in that mode usually don't even make fuck all any sense, for that matter.

You've cooked your rep not by any individual comment/post you've made here, but rather by the established pattern as per the above observed in 90% of them. You are at the same stage Biden was during that debate or when Dorothy pulled back the curtain the Wizard of Oz was hiding behind: It's game over, pal. OVER.

Likewise, I am a troll but not trolling you..that would require effort. There's been little effort on my part when you supply 100% of the ammo I use to call out your bullshit. That too is pretty obvious.

7021

AD 2025 Sep 4, 7:49am

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

yes, I know as our townhome is not in a flood zone

if it did flood such as from a +20 foot storm surge the water would drain out within a day from what I've researched as we are about two miles from the beach and about 17 feet above sea level

.

7022

WookieMan 2025 Sep 4, 9:16am

AD says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

yes, I know as our townhome is not in a flood zone

if it did flood such as from a +20 foot storm surge the water would drain out within a day from what I've researched as we are about two miles from the beach and about 17 feet above sea level

.

Rain is the enemy from what I researched. Remember Houston a few years back. 20" of rain. 2' of water basically. I wouldn't worry about the storm surge. I'd worry about copious amount of rain during a hurricane. May not happen in your/our lifetime but that one time the townhome is toast. City storm sewers can only do so much with 2-3" of rain an hour for 10 hours.

Debris gets washed in and starts damming storm sewers up. Next thing you know you're not lake front, but in the lake property. I think it was 1994, but we got 17" in my area in IL, absolutely insane. 3" is a lot usually. Flat land and heavy amounts of rain are not a good mix. 3' of water in the basement later... I had to rebuild our finished basement. Dad couldn't golf but still went to the club to gamble.

7023

AD 2025 Sep 4, 3:49pm

WookieMan says

Rain is the enemy from what I researched. Remember Houston a few years back. 20" of rain. 2' of water basically. I wouldn't worry about the storm surge. I'd worry about copious amount of rain during a hurricane. May not happen in your/our lifetime but that one time the townhome is toast. City storm sewers can only do so much with 2-3" of rain an hour for 10 hours.

yes it is called inundation not a downpour as far as that much rain which overwhelms the storm water systems

we got once 5 inches of rain in a couple of hours and it was significant as far as storm water drainage

.

7024

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 15, 10:02am

7025

Patrick 2025 Sep 15, 6:46pm

Yes, and that's entirely rational given how dangerous it is to live near high concentrations of blacks.

US public transit sucks for the same reason. It's very dangerous to ride public transit with blacks, just ask Iryna (oops, can't) or the 37,000 white women raped by black men each year.

So rational people want to be in a car, to have a metal barrier between oneself and the "socioeconomic factors" that killed Iryna. Cars are also useful for getting away from violent black people quickly, and as a last resort, as a weapon against black violence.

Everyone should stop pretending integration worked. It failed in the most horrible way, entirely due to the average content of black character, not the color of their skin. The problem is racist black violence against whites and Asians, and that violence continues every single day in every big city in the US. And the media remains silent about it, as ever.

7026

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 15, 8:49pm

Orlando Metro Area prices are up 70% since pre-COVID. Projected 8.5% price decline this year. Inventory is on par with 2011 now and rising.

Not a huge fan of Orlando generally, everything is a drive and the horrible mix of drivers. Clueless immigrants driving as if it's South America, slowass old people who shouldn't be driving and slam the brakes almost past the exit or turn, Disney Tourists doing the same, and Kia operators.

7027

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 18, 12:02pm

7028

WookieMan 2025 Sep 18, 12:18pm

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Help paying mortgage or help getting a mortgage? Need some distinction on that graph. Signing mortgage docs tomorrow, we had no problems getting one. Paying it, I don't know. Most my peers are pretty open about their housing situation. They're all solid and so are we.

I'm not going to name locations as I'll get the usual shit show. There are places that prices will drop. Most of the country is on solid ground. Sideways or up/down 5%. There will be a few areas that get beaten up specifically. Denver, Nashville, Boise, Orlando as you mentioned, Austin and anything along the east or west coast. But 5-10% down will likely be the max over the next 2 years as far as value loss. Loans are solid and interest rates from 3 years ago are keeping people in place. The floor is high price wise in markets that go down. Also lenders will be hesitant to foreclose. We'd need a massive job loss scenario.

7029

GNL 2025 Sep 18, 1:36pm

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Can you explain what this is telling us?

7030 The_Deplorable 2025 Sep 18, 5:17pm

GNL says

"Can you explain what this is telling us?"

@GNL, It is an attempt to show historical mortgage rates and it fails to do so.
See my next post for such a graph going back to 1971.

7031 The_Deplorable 2025 Sep 18, 5:18pm

7032 The_Deplorable 2025 Sep 18, 5:25pm

The_Deplorable says

By 2004 the Housing bubble was obvious and according to the Fed Minutes,
Alan Greenspan ignored it and it is with us to this day.

7033

Patrick 2025 Sep 18, 5:36pm

GNL says

Can you explain what this is telling us?

@GNL

It's showing the number of people searching on a search engine for "help with mortgage" and that it's the same as 2008, the last big housing crash.

7034 GreaterNYCDude 2025 Sep 18, 6:16pm

WookieMan says

lenders will be hesitant to foreclose. We'd need a massive job loss scenario.

I don't understand why lenders would be hesitant to forclouses although here in NY it's a LONG process start to finish.

As for massive job loss, that's not out of the realm of possiblity. True unemployment is still historically low but at least here in the Northeast, the job market is tightening.

7035

WookieMan 2025 Sep 18, 7:24pm

GreaterNYCDude says

I don't understand why lenders would be hesitant to forclouses although here in NY it's a LONG process start to finish.

Forbearance. I got into RE pre-bust. The process to foreclose is massively more expensive to banks. They give you two months off and tack it on the back end. The problem was way too large 2006-2008. Any problem now is trivial. Certain locations will go down, not the entire nation. Those locations will have to deal.

As I've said the floor is high on any price drops in most places. It's been 15 years plus since the housing bust. Do a linear graph in your area when data started being recorded. With inflation we're mostly still on a normal path in most locations.

I hate national. Top orangish line would be bad. Red line is the path we're on. I'm not seeing a problem as many markets are basically stalling. Do not expect housing to become more affordable anytime soon is all I'm saying. If interest rates drop it will be more expensive, unless inventory explodes.

patrick.net

housing prices peak 2

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