housing prices peak 2

6984 FortWayneHatesRealtors 2025 Aug 27, 4:11am

Misc says

Mal-investment is everywhere.

There's only one way to cure Mal-investment.

And boy will many people hate it.

Government doesn’t let it happen anymore, they just print away inflation to bail it out.

Capitalism crashes periodically to fix that, we haven’t had a crash because of money printer bailing out bad investments. We kinda screwed now by our own government.

6985 Misc 2025 Aug 27, 5:09am

The problem is savers. Household net wealth is about $170 trillion. America's savings rate is about 4.5% so a bit over $1 trillion per year. That $170 trillion to keep up with inflation is about another $4-5 trillion in nominal bucks. If you want a real rate of return of 2% on your investments...well that's another $3.5 trillion, and Americans have been told to expect much more than that. So that totals up to $9 trillion in nominal dollars. The American GDP is about $28 trillion. If you think it's possible to find $9 trillion in new investments when the economy is $28 trillion...well a shit ton of that $9 trillion is bogus. So instead of spending the money, savers would rather have a massive build up of assets that are really worth just a few pennies on the dollar. Then they are shocked when price discovery takes place. Basically they would rather lose the money on investments rather than spend it.

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GNL 2025 Aug 27, 6:28am

Misc says

US household net wealth is over $170 trillion.

We have more liquid cash type assets than mortgages outstanding.

We are saving over $1 trillion per year.

If our net wealth simply keeps up with inflation, that's a nominal increase of $4-5 trillion per year.

If the Fed doesn't lower mortgage rates dramatically, Trump is going to send out tax rebate checks based on the amount of tariffs received.

Is this sarcasm?

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Booger 2025 Aug 27, 7:40am

Misc says

The problem is savers.

Why do you hate fiscal responsibility?

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HeadSet 2025 Aug 27, 8:57am

Misc says

The problem is savers. Household net wealth is about $170 trillion.

It appears that you are including home equity as part of "savings." One cannot spend equity, only borrow against it.

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WookieMan 2025 Aug 27, 9:10am

GNL says

If the Fed doesn't lower mortgage rates dramatically, Trump is going to send out tax rebate checks based on the amount of tariffs received.

Is this sarcasm?

Eh, probably not. We shut down the country for the common cold for almost 2 years and gave people money. If the Fed doesn't play nice in Trumps world I wouldn't be shocked by a move like this. If he can win the midterms he gets his agenda. He'll still get the rate cuts too, at least 1-2 before '26.

Anyone living in the doom and gloom world is not seeing the plan. Not saying the tariff checks would happen but I wouldn't at all be surprised. Dump the illegals give blacks money and guess what, you win House seats and maybe some Senate seats.

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Aug 27, 9:30am

GNL says

Is this sarcasm?

If so, an awesome troll.

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AD 2025 Aug 29, 2:22pm

.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08282025

down to 6.5% for conventional mortgages (non FHA, non VA, non government backed)

once down to 6% then it would increase sales volume and sellers more incentives to buy down 4 discount points to lower the rate from 6% to 5%

considering that all time high price was set when the rate was 3%

Zillow now shows 6.25% for FHA mortgages in Panama City Beach

.

6992

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 1, 5:22pm

Pending sales in all regions near record lows. Pending sales fell sharply in the Midwest, but also declined in the South and Northeast. The West was the only region where pending sales rose. Pending sales remained near record lows in all four regions.

Pending sales of existing homes in the US, compared to the Julys in prior years:

2024: +0.7%
2023: -6.5%
2022: -21%
2021: -36%
2020: -41%
2019: -32%.
The Buyers’ Strike continues because prices are too high after shooting up by 50% or more within 2-3 years. Those prices no longer make economic sense.

While inventory surged. This plunge in demand coincides with surging inventories of existing homes for sale – despite large waves of delistings by frustrated sellers – leading to the most supply since July 2016 over the past three months, along with May 2020.

Split out by single-family homes and condos: Supply of single family homes rose to 4.5 months while supply of condos has been over 6 months since April, the highest since 2012 at the end of the Housing Bust. Here is the combined supply:

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/28/buyers-strike-pending-home-sales-drop-further-plunge-in-midwest-near-record-lows-in-all-regions-even-as-supply-balloons/

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DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 1, 5:27pm

Winter is going to be interesting. Florida leapt 23% in listings over last year and is on the way to 200,000 listings, despite deluded homeloaners delisting hoping that relisting later will get them COVID pricing.

Stretching to the extreme for a modest suburban ranch at price that a McMansion cost just a few years ago... Yet taxed and insured at 30% higher rates than before COVID at the new higher price points.

I can rent a 90s 1400sq ft for $1800. Leaky Roof or Pipes? Not my problem. Why would I pay $2500 to own the same thing, except it's my problem when the roof goes or the Carrier needs replacement? If the rate goes down a full point I'm still paying over $400 more for more responsibility and little benefit.

And if I was willing to pay $2500, Why not pay $100-200 more/month and buy new, everything under warranty, all new appliances, modern non-Florida Tile wood look floors, grey not billard green or rose pink walls, USB in the walls, teaser rates, and 15% larger?

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DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 1, 5:52pm

Rent for $1800 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/949-Serenade-St-NW-Palm-Bay-FL-32907/80767434_zpid/

Or buy similar for... $295k

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1500-Gardenton-St-NW-Palm-Bay-FL-32907/43484232_zpid/

Above was 180k in 2017. Is this house really worth 400% more from it's 2001 price 25 years later? Hell no. Have wages gone up 400% since 2001? Hell no. That means somebody with a $30k job in 2001 would have to make $120k today. I don't think too many assistant managers of Ace Hardware or F/T Dentist Office Techs made as little as $30k in 2001, not even in low-wage Florida. Shit, probably most F/T Denny's waiters made $30k or more in 2001. They ain't making $120k today.

At best, this is a $210k house. $2600 @ 6.5% vs. $2400 @ 5.5% is a nothing against $1800 for the same shit, same age, same size,etc. And for $2800 you could have all new - probably less once you factor in reduced insurance costs and first decade of reduced maintenance costs.

Mama says knock these house prices out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 1, 6:57pm

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Pending sales in all regions near record lows.

No, no. One of our resident Housing Experts of PatNet insists this can only be happening in 'hipster' coastal states/cities, remember?

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DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 1, 7:28pm

And Florida is no "Under $3000 insurance for SFH", not in this county or any Central Florida County. People who were paying $1200-1800 5 years ago are paying well over $3000 despite new roofs and raising their deductible substantially, regardless of age of distance from the ocean, in fact houses on the island are easily paying twice that. This is true from Hillsborough to Lake to Brevard.

This county hasn't had real hurricane damage or flooding in ages. it's in a "Nearly Dead Zone" stretching between Sebastian, FL and Brunswick, GA where hurricanes very seldom land due to vagarities of the Gulf Stream and Hydrography. When this region gets hit it's usually from a storm that entered the mainland from the Gulf, not the Atlantic, and lost most of it's strength over the land.

1990-2025 Storm Track: Yellow is Cat 1, Green is a Tropical Storm. Red, Orange, Purple Cat 2+

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Patrick 2025 Sep 1, 8:19pm

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/28/buyers-strike-pending-home-sales-drop-further-plunge-in-midwest-near-record-lows-in-all-regions-even-as-supply-balloons/

Buyers Strike: Pending Home Sales Drop Further, Plunge in Midwest, Near Record Lows in All Regions, as Supply Balloons
by Wolf Richter Aug 28, 2025

6998

WookieMan 2025 Sep 1, 8:39pm

MolotovCocktail says

No, no. One of our resident Housing Experts of PatNet insists this can only be happening in 'hipster' coastal states/cities, remember?

6999

AD 2025 Sep 1, 9:34pm

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

And Florida is no "Under $3000 insurance for SFH", not in this county or any Central Florida County. People who were paying $1200-1800 5 years ago are paying well over $3000 despite new roofs and raising their deductible substantially, regardless of age of distance from the ocean, in fact houses on the island are easily paying twice that. This is true from Hillsborough to Lake to Brevard.

This county hasn't had real hurricane damage or flooding in ages. it's in a "Nearly Dead Zone" stretching between Ft. Pierce, FL and Brunswick, GA where hurricanes very seldom land due to vagarities of the Gulf Stream and Hydrography. When this region gets hit it's usually from a storm that entered the mainland from the Gulf, not the Atlantic, and lost most of it's strength over the land.

FROM FLORIDA OFFICE OF INSURANCE REGULATION for estimates on HO-3 insurance for a $300,000 new construction single family detached home

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DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 2, 12:08am

AD says

FROM FLORIDA OFFICE OF INSURANCE REGULATION for estimates on HO-3 insurance for a $300,000 new construction single family detached home

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

9 of those 14 rates are over $3000, and that's for NEW Construction. 10 if one rounds the $2,961 up to the nearest hundred for Universal.

Citizens is the State insurer of last resort and covers 1.2M properties, making it the top insurer in Florida, covering about twice as many as the #2 provider, State Farm. Universal is #3, just behind State Farm at about half a million. Apparently State Farm and Universal combined roughly equal Citizens.

https://floir.com/property-casualty/market-overview

The state average for Florida insurance is getting on $4,000 with wind coverage. And just shy of $3000 without.

AFAIK, Citizens required wind policy holders to add Flood, but Flood is not required of Private Insurance for state admitted policies.

7001

DemoralizerOfPanicans 2025 Sep 2, 12:28am

WookieMan says

Hipster

Curious to hear about Asheville, NC, which is apparently Hipster from what I hear (I haven't been and know nobody there).

7002

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 3:11am

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

WookieMan says

Hipster

Curious to hear about Asheville, NC, which is apparently Hipster from what I hear (I haven't been and know nobody there).

County overall is down. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/2156/buncombe-county-nc/

Asheville proper is down. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/50779/asheville-nc/

It's not massive but down. That one is a toss up for hipster and coastal. A little over 5 hours to Myrtle Beach, SC. Early morning wake up and you're at the beach before noon as long as you're not driving a Tesla, which a lot of people from Asheville probably do.

Like IL plenty of people make 5 hours trip up to their Wisconsin or Michigan lake houses. Just our prices are increasing. Hell I didn't post Cook county home to one of the most bitched about cities, Chicago and is up 2%: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/139/cook-county-il/

Molotov won't do the research. Hopefully now he understands where I'm coming from. But he doesn't understand the midwest. I have a 25% knowledge of FL real estate, but I'll trust what users who live there say.

Here's more.

Denver: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/11093/denver-co/ Down a lot. And yes Denver is the OG hipster city because of legal weed, Subaru's and 4 Runners being everywhere.

All the places in the longer comment above I've personally been to them all. So I don't just make shit up as accused of constantly and I will come with data. Getting annoyed by a troll (not you) that says I'm wrong. I believe you've said you're in Florida and AD is in Florida, I'll trust the words from the boots on the ground users. Not someone that probably never goes anywhere (again not you).

With real estate and stocks, prices change. A year from now my comments could be made to look wrong. But my recent comments I've proven coastal and hipster areas are down. The midwest is fine and increasing in all the links above. I'll have to do Texas and the other south areas. Gotta shower and get the kids going.

7003

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 7:08am

WookieMan says

Provide evidence. You won't.

I do, but you just engage in magical thinking otherwise.

Then you write pontificating volumes of contradictory statements laced by non-expert terms like 'hipster' fueled by not keeping track of what is purely imagination in your head vs reality.

All the while exposing how that your real issue is being triggered by my exposure of your constant bullshit, nothing more.

7004

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 7:10am

WookieMan says

All the places in the longer comment above I've personally been to them all.

So fucking what? That doesn't mean anything.

WookieMan says

So I don't just make shit up

Ibid.

7005

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 10:50am

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
All the places in the longer comment above I've personally been to them all.

So fucking what? That doesn't mean anything.

Okay. You haven't. So don't comment on it since you don't know the areas. Comment on what you know. I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing. Provide evidence or STFU.

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 1:00pm

WookieMan says

Okay. You haven't.

More imaginary thinking, more bullshit.

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 1:01pm

WookieMan says

I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing

That's all you do...not very good, either.

Again: this is only about you feeling threatened because your bullshit gets called out.

7008

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 1:19pm

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing

That's all you do...not very good, either.

Again: this is only about you feeling threatened because your bullshit gets called out.

When? No other user has. See a doctor buddy.

7009

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 2, 1:21pm

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I'm not gonna sit here and argue about arguing

That's all you do...not very good, either.

Again: this is only about you feeling threatened because your bullshit gets called out.

When? No other user has.

More magical thinking

7010

WookieMan 2025 Sep 2, 8:19pm

MolotovCocktail says

More magical thinking

Keep debunking actual data. None of which you have posted. Show me how I'm wrong with hipster and coastal areas. I literally just gave you dozens of links. It took 5 minutes. You don't give ONE link. You don't know real estate and now you're marking my comments as personal. Because you know I'm right.

7011

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:19am

WookieMan says

you're marking my comments as personal. Because you know I'm right.

No, because they are personal attacks you post because your whole sense of self esteem is tied up with your bullshit 'expertise' on PatNet that is being outed. You can't handle that. It's pretty sad.

At this point, I can safely say the following is a sample truncated version of whatever interaction you have with ppl who threaten your bullshit 'rep' here on PatNet:

Me: Here is a snapshot of the beach mid afternoon.

Wookie: But the sky is blue.

Me: Yeah, and?

Wookie: AND? You don't know what you're talking about! I know everything about it, not you. I blew a professor and he gave me a passing grade that sez so. Here's a Iink that proves I know of the professor but doesn't prove the bullshit I just said otherwise.¹.I bet you have never even been to a beach! You also don't even own a pair of sunglasses. I know, because I dreamed all that up in my head. Prove me wrong! Where's the links?

Everyone reading that: WTF?

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WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 6:23am

MolotovCocktail says

Wookie: AND? You don't know what you're talking about! I know everything about it, not you. I blew a professor and he gave me a passing grade that sez so. Here's a Iink that proves I know of the professor but doesn't prove the bullshit I just said otherwise.1.I bet you have never even been to a beach! You also don't even own a pair of sunglasses. I know, because I dreamed all that up in my head. Prove me wrong! Where's the links?

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation, this one is worthy. You just make shit up dude. You have more ignores in a fraction of the time I've been on this site.

7013

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:25am

WookieMan says

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation

Never said that you did? Where did I say that?

WookieMan says

You just make shit up dude

That's your dept.

7014

WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 6:28am

MolotovCocktail says

Never said that you did? Where did I say that?

You just flagged one of my comments. For what. Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information unless it's in picture format. I can't help you with that. It's okay to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:31am

WookieMan says

You have more ignores

You have 11, I have 6.

One PatNet member just complained to Patrick that a weeks worth of comments on a thread were missing. Patrick had to tell him it was because he blocked you that they were not visible.

I am often a troll. Even an outright asshole. So ppl block me for that and that's AOK. But it is for a purpose. In your case, outing bullshit posted by so-called experts that you took the bait on and won't let up.

And witnessing the sheer amount of psychological projection you engage in with your responses is an awesome site to behold, frankly.

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 6:39am

WookieMan says

You just flagged one of my comments. For what. Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information unless it's in picture format. I can't help you with that. It's okay to admit you don't know what you're talking about.

Jesus dude. WTF is your problem?

You say: "Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation."

My response: "Never said that you did? Where did I say that?"

'That' being your claim that I am lying about you marking comments for moderation. That's what you wrote. Of course, you are going to claim otherwise

Full text of yours:

WookieMan says

Now you're just flat out lying. I don't mark comments for moderation, this one is worthy. You just make shit up dude. You have more ignores in a fraction of the time I've been on this site.

I never said that you mark comments for moderation, to which you claim I am lying about. Learn what a main subject sentence of a paragraph is, if weaseling out of what you actually said is your goal here.

WookieMan says

Sorry I posted links and data and you cannot handle information

The ones I marked for moderation didn't have links and data or whatever. They were just ad hominem attacks that a 12 yr old can even do better.

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WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 10:12am

Comment 6998

You don't contribute anything here. You're here to just argue. You're the type that destroys sites like this that are fun. Ad, Panicans, Patrick and many others. Just those three I don't always agree with them. I don't shit on them. You're a troll. Own it and move on and let this site be what it was. Go to pasture bro.

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MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 2:03pm

WookieMan says

Comment 6998

You don't contribute anything here. You're here to just argue. You're the type that destroys sites like this that are fun. Ad, Panicans, Patrick and many others. Just those three I don't always agree with them. I don't shit on them. You're a troll. Own it and move on and let this site be what it was. Go to pasture bro.

Ad hominem attack again.

Yeah. Calling out the truth of other people's bullshit is 'destroying sites'. Not.

It's the people who post said bullshit being called out who do.

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WookieMan 2025 Sep 3, 2:08pm

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Comment 6998

Look at the comment. No bullshit. Let me know what is. I'll wait.

Throwing out Ad hominem is weak sauce. You're caught in your bull shit. It's fine. Just don't argue arguing when you're wrong. Not a good look. Click the links bud in the comment listed. You don't care as I think most here know you're a troll. Whatever makes your day bro. Just stop putting trash on this site.

7020

MolotovCocktail 2025 Sep 3, 10:50pm

WookieMan says

Look at the comment. No bullshit. Let me know what is. I'll wait.

Why? Does nothing to disprove all the other bullshit you post here. I mean, just in the last 48 hours you've been caught red-handed posting complete bullshit. Can't be a CREDIBLE Housing Expert of PatNet when you keep doing that.

WookieMan says

Just stop putting trash on this site.

Calling out your bullshit isn't 'putting trash on this site'. It's called performing a public service.

WookieMan says

Click the links bud in the comment listed.

You mean like the link to the college professor you claimed to know and studied under? Your link there provided zero proof of that bullshit claim of that. A claim you felt necessary to make to only keep up with the bogus 'expert' rep you unhealthily crave in the first place but I challenged?

So what else is bullshit? Stories of you being a such and such or about your family? What can you actually prove about any of that? Nothing.

Nothing.

But you expect everyone to accept all that...and react defensively when someone calls you out on it. Hell your responses when you are in that mode usually don't even make fuck all any sense, for that matter.

You've cooked your rep not by any individual comment/post you've made here, but rather by the established pattern as per the above observed in 90% of them. You are at the same stage Biden was during that debate or when Dorothy pulled back the curtain the Wizard of Oz was hiding behind: It's game over, pal. OVER.

Likewise, I am a troll but not trolling you..that would require effort. There's been little effort on my part when you supply 100% of the ammo I use to call out your bullshit. That too is pretty obvious.

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AD 2025 Sep 4, 7:49am

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

yes, I know as our townhome is not in a flood zone

if it did flood such as from a +20 foot storm surge the water would drain out within a day from what I've researched as we are about two miles from the beach and about 17 feet above sea level

.

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WookieMan 2025 Sep 4, 9:16am

AD says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

HO-3 policies generally exclude Floods, which is the most common type of hurricane damage. According to this website listed below, in 2021 the average Flood policy cost $700/year additional
https://davidlowpa.com/ho3-homeowners-policies-in-florida/

yes, I know as our townhome is not in a flood zone

if it did flood such as from a +20 foot storm surge the water would drain out within a day from what I've researched as we are about two miles from the beach and about 17 feet above sea level

.

Rain is the enemy from what I researched. Remember Houston a few years back. 20" of rain. 2' of water basically. I wouldn't worry about the storm surge. I'd worry about copious amount of rain during a hurricane. May not happen in your/our lifetime but that one time the townhome is toast. City storm sewers can only do so much with 2-3" of rain an hour for 10 hours.

Debris gets washed in and starts damming storm sewers up. Next thing you know you're not lake front, but in the lake property. I think it was 1994, but we got 17" in my area in IL, absolutely insane. 3" is a lot usually. Flat land and heavy amounts of rain are not a good mix. 3' of water in the basement later... I had to rebuild our finished basement. Dad couldn't golf but still went to the club to gamble.

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AD 2025 Sep 4, 3:49pm

WookieMan says

Rain is the enemy from what I researched. Remember Houston a few years back. 20" of rain. 2' of water basically. I wouldn't worry about the storm surge. I'd worry about copious amount of rain during a hurricane. May not happen in your/our lifetime but that one time the townhome is toast. City storm sewers can only do so much with 2-3" of rain an hour for 10 hours.

yes it is called inundation not a downpour as far as that much rain which overwhelms the storm water systems

we got once 5 inches of rain in a couple of hours and it was significant as far as storm water drainage

.

patrick.net

housing prices peak 2

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