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mell says

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

Gotta build for a correction. Seeing a bit of it here in IL. But Boomers have to move, they're not or already have and others are locked into low interest rates.

Austin, parts of FL, Nashville, and coastal areas will feel the brunt. But it won't be that bad. Everyone is hyper focused on national median. High priced homes falling in value spell doom and gloom. That's false.

WookieMan says

mell says

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

Gotta build for a correction. Seeing a bit of it here in IL. But Boomers have to move, they're not or already have and others are locked into low interest rates.

Austin, parts of FL, Nashville, and coastal areas will feel the brunt. But it won't be that bad. Everyone is hyper focused on national median. High priced homes falling in value spell doom and gloom. That's false.

Even the coasts will stabilize. The fat years of housing appreciation are over due to shifting demographics and less immigrants, but it will likely appreciate in the low single digits over the next few years, underperforming inflation and other assets. Those who think a crash is imminent are delusional, for a crash we either need severe mortgage fraud like in 2007, interest rates double from here or a severe recession with plenty job losses. None of this is anywhere in sight. Builders are tepidly building due to stubborn high labor and material costs.

As far as housing demographics, young people forgo homeownership to invest in the stock market

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/29/stocks-retirement-gen-z

Young Americans are increasingly planning for retirement by investing in the stock market while putting off homeownership.

Why it matters: For decades, owning a home has helped Americans build their nest eggs. A generation putting all its eggs into stocks without having weathered a prolonged market slump may be in for a surprise.

What they're saying: The meme stock craze of 2020 caused a "generational shift in how people think about building wealth," Kevin Gordon, macro strategist at Charles Schwab, tells Axios.

That means stocks, but Gen Z hasn't experienced a "protracted and more painful bear market" like older investors have, he says.
"It's not the norm to see a 20% drop and then a record climb back to all-time highs," he notes, referring to what happened in April.
That rebound might have given younger investors the takeaway that "buying the dip" almost always pays and carries little risk.
By the numbers: Retail trading activity has doubled since 2010, making up about a quarter of daily trading volume.

About a third of 25-year-olds have investment accounts today, a sixfold increase from a decade ago.
Financial assets and investments are "taking a bigger share" of the wealth picture for young people, George Eckerd, research director at JPMorgan Chase Institute, tells Axios.
Zoom out: The shift away from homeownership, especially among young and lower-income Americans, could widen the wealth gap, says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

By the numbers: While stocks can be volatile, housing values have remained consistently strong, outside of the global financial crisis.

Homeownership accounts for nearly half of Americans' wealth, and a home is the average American's most valuable asset.
In 2022, the median net worth of U.S. households rose to $176,500, up from $136,500 in 2019. That increase was driven largely by rising home equity, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

AD says

While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15328777/housing-market-price-correction-prediction.html

The US housing market could face a price correction 'worse than 2008' with prices dropping by half in mere months, a housing analyst has warned.

Melody Wright expressed her fears about plummeting home prices in a recent interview with Adam Taggart on the Thoughtful Money podcast.

The two were discussing a recent Zillow report that found home values are falling for more than half of America, the biggest share since the country was still clawing its way out of the Great Recession.

Data showed that 53 percent of US homes have lost value over the past year, the highest level since 2012, when the housing crash finally hit bottom.

Wright warned that this statistic indicates the housing market is set for a price correction worse than the one in 2008 that burst the housing bubble.

'I think we're going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the home price, the median home price,' she said.

'So that is going to be worse than 2008. This could devolve a lot faster than last time.'

I know Adam Taggart from the days when this site was all about the housing bubble.

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.

Patrick says

I know Adam Taggart from the days when this site was all about the housing bubble.

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.
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Melody Wright interview: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2226841

stereotomy says

AD says

While both stocks and housing can be affected by macro factors, home prices are typically not highly correlated with the stock market.

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

Also invest in Jeff Bezos's Arrived.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-backed-platform-now-121603833.html

Patrick says

I'd like prices to fall by 50%, and that would be very good for young families, but I find it hard to believe simply because of the concentrated political power that is determined to keep housing too expensive.

The only tool the national politicians have is creating gov backed 50-100 year loans. Local politicians can keep local prices up with restricting permits and strong zoning rules. Other than that, is market caused like when people will not sell and take the loss while losing a low payment 3% loan.

stereotomy says

What that Axios clown fails to mention is that you can buy shares or a REIT or two to gain uncorrelated stock gains just as well.

Article was funded by the NAR and/or Realtards.

https://www.almanacnews.com/peninsula/2025/11/24/property-values-fall-for-most-bay-area-homeowners-over-past-year/

A majority of U.S. households has seen home values slip over the past year, and the Bay Area is among the regions feeling the sharpest pullback, according to new research from Zillow.

Nationwide, 53% of homes are now worth less than they were one year ago — a jump from just 14% in 2024 — marking the highest share of annual declines since 2012, when the post-recession housing slump was nearing its end.

The slowdown is hitting hardest in parts of the West and South, especially in high-cost metros and regions that saw the fastest pandemic-era growth. In the San Francisco metropolitan area, which includes San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, and San Mateo counties, more than 80% of homes have lost value from last year. In the San Jose Metropolitan area, which includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties, the figure is 78%.

According to the report, average home values have fallen about 15% from their peak in the San Francisco metro area and 10.3% in San Jose — sharper declines than the national average of 10%.

Fellation of realtors follows, but the article started out honestly anyway.

Apartment Rents continue their national decline:


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/apartment-rents-vacancies-november.html

Just wait until this time next year, after Powered Up ICE with billions in New Funding goes wild.

Case/Shiller came out last week. It was up a tiny bit from the prior month, which was up a tiny bit from the month before it. The previous 3 months were a tiny bit lower.

I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.

There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA