patrick.net

All the above is evidence that the housing market is a monopoly...

Supply and demand does not exist...

"Why don't Americans save? You can always buy a CD here in low rate early 2010s and get a whopping 0.3% return. Doesn't that make you want to put your money to sleep for a year?"

Nothing is going on in the housing market. Sales of existing homes about 4 million. Half a percent lower than last year. Pre-Covid, sales were a touch above 5 million per year. There's still no inventory (about 1.4 million for sale. Pre-Covid, inventory was running about 2 million for sale). Inventory is up a whopping 7.5% from last year...so it only needs to increase another 45% roughly to get back to pre-covid inventory levels. Prices for houses sold up a touch over 1% from last year. 29 months of year over year price increases, but I wouldn't read too much into that considering how anemic the increases have been.

Overall, a whole lot of nothing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/why-were-home-prices-still-climbing-last-month-despite-slowing-sales/ar-AA1SGuyy?pc=HCTS

MolotovCocktail says

Yep. Eventually life changes and reality will overwhelm the ability of stubborn homeloaners to list and de-list, stomp their feet, try to rent, be disappointed with that, and finally accept reality.

They are in the "I'm entitled to peak pricing! Home prices only go up!" phase.

And no, institutional ownership of homes is not a factor; the big boys have been selling off in slices since 2023 and are mostly concentrated in a handful of metro areas. Their total ownership of about 10% is less than "Mom and Pop" landlords (20-30%) and a tiny proportion to house and houseloan owners (over 60%)

The Houseloan owners are the most important segment, they are making big payments that if they stop, the bank will repo "Their" house. Yes I know about property tax, but the big one is the House Loan.

AmenCorner_AntiPanican says

I like a 6.2% interest rate. Good and normal.

People are too habituated, too addicted, too mentally enslaved to too low interest rates

You may be part of that "habituation" if you think 6.2% is normal. 6% is more like passbook savings while mortgages over the decades averaged more like 7.5 to 8%. And mortgages typically required a down payment.

Ceffer says

A place three doors down in Santa Cruz, which is reasonably priced for what it is in California, hasn't sold for six months and it's staged very nicely.

Well, they would get you as a neighbor.

https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2002164275041702380

MolotovCocktail says

https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2002164275041702380

What else needs to be known that proves our economy is totally managed? Especially all of the most important parts/industries. The ones EVERYONE needs.

MolotovCocktail says

Is there a link to when Trump said that?

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Is there a link to when Trump said that?

I already posted it here:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2232497

MolotovCocktail says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Is there a link to when Trump said that?

I already posted it here:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2232497

Thanks. He’s trying to g to eat the cake and have it too.

Never seen a builder who was ok with real estate prices going down. The whole game is price inflation to borrow money from previous asset to put into next. Definitely explains the 50 year government backed mortgage trial balloon bullshit he tried.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

The whole game is price inflation to borrow money from previous asset to put into next. Definitely explains the 50 year government backed mortgage trial balloon bullshit he tried.

Yup:

The admin cannot "increase affordability" because we are dealing with a monopoly. Something
like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

The_Deplorable says

Something
like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.

About 50% are Freddie Mae and Fanny Mac

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115855059527504524

@realDonaldTrump

For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans. It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations. I will discuss this topic, including further Housing and Affordability proposals, and more, at my speech in Davos in two weeks.

It's nice that he's aware, but the real solution is to build a LOT more housing near areas where the jobs are.

Increase supply. This will annoy those boomers who profit from restricting supply and preventing young couples from owning houses and raising families. But the alternative is our current slow strangulation to keep boomers happy.

I know the rules around building are mostly state and local, but there's probably a lot the federal government can do, like pressuring states to increase supply, and freeing up federal land for housing near jobs.

Patrick says

It's nice that he's aware, but the real solution is to build a LOT more housing near areas where the jobs are.

True, but taking existing homes out of Airbnb and corporate rentals adds for to the supply for sale.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

It's nice that he's aware, but the real solution is to build a LOT more housing near areas where the jobs are.

True, but taking existing homes out of Airbnb and corporate rentals adds for to the supply for sale.

I find it quite surprising that Airbnb is allowed. Isn't that a commercial endeavor? Why was it ever allowed in residential zoned areas?

GNL says

Why was it ever allowed in residential zoned areas?

Corruption

Sorry Biden with his housing vouchers for immigrants is no longer open for business. Under him it would've been a done deal.

MolotovCocktail says

Bwahaha, Loved this.

Patrick says

Increase supply. This will annoy those boomers who profit from restricting supply and preventing young couples from owning houses and raising families. But the alternative is our current slow strangulation to keep boomers happy.

We need an emergency executive order that allows any property over a quarter of an acre to allow an RV for up to 10 years without building a permanent structure.

Boomers zoned this out after quite a few of them brought the land, lived in an RV or bottom grade mfg home, and slowly built a house cash starting with the foundation, then the basic living room, kitchen, bathroom core, then the bedrooms.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

Housing market anxiety is spreading — with 26 of the country’s 50 biggest metro areas now seeing home prices lower than they were a year ago.

For the first time in nearly three years, the median US listing price has also slipped below $400,000 ...

While prices are down 0.6 percent nationally, that average disguises much steeper falls across large swathes of the country.

Worst is Austin, TX, where prices have plunged 7.3 percent over the past year to $462,000, the biggest drop of any major metro.

The pain is spreading well beyond Texas. Prices are down 6.7 percent in San Diego, CA slipping to just under $900,000, while nearby San Jose has seen values fall 5.5 percent to $1.19 million.

Excellent news! (for young couples wanting to start a family)

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Patrick says

Increase supply. This will annoy those boomers who profit from restricting supply and preventing young couples from owning houses and raising families. But the alternative is our current slow strangulation to keep boomers happy.

We need an emergency executive order that allows any property over a quarter of an acre to allow an RV for up to 10 years without building a permanent structure.

Boomers zoned this out after quite a few of them brought the land, lived in an RV or bottom grade mfg home, and slowly built a house cash starting with the foundation, then the basic living room, kitchen, bathroom core, then the bedrooms.

My parents did just that.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/pygmalion-thursday-january-8-2026

In a dramatic Truth Social post, the President explained, “People live in homes, not corporations.” President Trump announced he is “immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes.” ...

Trump is unlikely to deploy an outright ban, which would probably be unconstitutional. But Congress has very broad authority under the Commerce Clause to regulate institutional purchases of single‑family homes, because large investors operate in interstate capital and rental markets. So Trump (with help from Congress) could lawfully limit these investors’ access to federal programs like GSE guarantees, FHA insurance, and tax preferences, discouraging them to stop acquiring additional owner‑occupied housing.

The BBC reported that shares of related property firms immediately fell yesterday after Trump’s comments. For instance, Invitation Homes, which owns single-family homes, fell -6%. BlackRock fell almost -8% on the news, but recovered somewhat after the firm forcefully denied directly owning residential homes (which is true, but misleading; BlackRock invests in certain companies and investment funds that do buy residential homes at scale).

You’ll recall that the two main planks of the Democrats’ affordability narrative are housing and healthcare, which in turn are two of the biggest expenses that younger Americans face. By tackling a well-protected political lobby —Wall Street— Trump expertly outflanked Democrat bills planned for the congressional pipeline this year in advance of the midterms. If Trump’s initiative works, we could see real estate prices —especially in starter homes— plunge.

Excellent news for young couples.

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

But the Housing Experts on PatNet told me all last year that this wouldn't happen!

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

quite a few of them brought the land, lived in an RV or bottom grade mfg home, and slowly built a house cash starting with the foundation, then the basic living room, kitchen, bathroom core, then the bedrooms.

I had several high school friends whose parents lived in houses that were built over time as they lived in them. One guy even used parts from the demotion of a William And Mary building.

Trump can order mortgage bonds to be bought?

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

I don’t pay attention to the current market conditions locally but I visited a place in warm spring area Fremont, CA during last December break and heard a neighborhood house just sold for $1.5 that was listed for $2.1 few months prior. That was a drastic change around! Sounded like things are softening a little bit and good for young people to start a family.

Blue says

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

I don’t pay attention to the current market conditions locally but I visited a place in warm spring area Fremont, CA during last December break and heard a neighborhood house just sold for $1.5 that was listed for $2.1 few months prior. That was a drastic change around! Sounded like things are softening a little bit and good for young people to start a family.

Because young families are just itching to purchase 1.5 million dollar homes?

GNL says

Blue says

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

I don’t pay attention to the current market conditions locally but I visited a place in warm spring area Fremont, CA during last December break and heard a neighborhood house just sold for $1.5 that was listed for $2.1 few months prior. That was a drastic change around! Sounded like things are softening a little bit and good for young people to start a family.

Because young families are just itching to purchase 1.5 million dollar homes?

I’m not in Bay Area where all the techies walk around with millions in equity and half a million annual salaries. But last I heard every outhouse there starts at a million.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

all the techies walk around with millions in equity and half a million annual salaries

They just don't build. And they don't have half a million in salaries.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/honor-among-thieves-friday-january

Meanwhile, in the political arena, January’s surge continued yesterday. The AP dished a story headlined, “Trump says he wants government to buy $200B in mortgage bonds in a push to bring down mortgage rates.” The Democrats asked for the affordability fight; here it comes. ...

Yesterday, President Trump issued a post declaring that he will instruct Fannie and Freddie to use an existing war chest of about $200 billion in reserves (a rainy-day fund he wisely refused to burn off during Trump 1.0) to buy up mortgage bonds, a complicated financial move that experts say will help lower residential mortgage rates. The extent of the potential reduction is hotly debated. One Redfin economist quoted for the story estimated the move could shave 0.25 to 0.5 points off 30-year mortgage rates. ...

This news piles on yesterday’s announcement of a ban on hedge-fund vampires buying up residential properties. When enforced, it will increase the supply of homes, especially starter homes, which will lower prices. Starter homes might actually become available for, gasp, starters instead of being turned into rental portfolios for guys named Chadwell Gerard Bostley IV who summer in the Hamptons.

In other words, over two days, Trump announced plans to pressure both mortgage rates and housing prices.

That seems contradictory to me. Lower rates immediately create higher prices, because the same monthly payment can cover higher principal.

Patrick says

That seems contradictory to me. Lower rates immediately create higher prices, because the same monthly payment can cover higher principal.

Higher rates haven't decreased home prices on a national level for almost going on 4 years. Why do ya think lower rates at this rate level would increase prices ???

At this stage the lower rates would only decrease the amount of down payment the purchasers use.

He’s buying mortgages, that’s QE, buying bad debt at full price. He’s buying shitty mortgages that are going to default. That’s bail out. Otherwise things start crashing.

He’s rescuing asset prices. We can’t keep doing this, it’s become a permanent bailout. Money printer now spikes annually to keep that crap afloat.