patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

Bwahaha, Loved this.

Patrick says

Increase supply. This will annoy those boomers who profit from restricting supply and preventing young couples from owning houses and raising families. But the alternative is our current slow strangulation to keep boomers happy.

We need an emergency executive order that allows any property over a quarter of an acre to allow an RV for up to 10 years without building a permanent structure.

Boomers zoned this out after quite a few of them brought the land, lived in an RV or bottom grade mfg home, and slowly built a house cash starting with the foundation, then the basic living room, kitchen, bathroom core, then the bedrooms.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

Housing market anxiety is spreading — with 26 of the country’s 50 biggest metro areas now seeing home prices lower than they were a year ago.

For the first time in nearly three years, the median US listing price has also slipped below $400,000 ...

While prices are down 0.6 percent nationally, that average disguises much steeper falls across large swathes of the country.

Worst is Austin, TX, where prices have plunged 7.3 percent over the past year to $462,000, the biggest drop of any major metro.

The pain is spreading well beyond Texas. Prices are down 6.7 percent in San Diego, CA slipping to just under $900,000, while nearby San Jose has seen values fall 5.5 percent to $1.19 million.

Excellent news! (for young couples wanting to start a family)

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Patrick says

Increase supply. This will annoy those boomers who profit from restricting supply and preventing young couples from owning houses and raising families. But the alternative is our current slow strangulation to keep boomers happy.

We need an emergency executive order that allows any property over a quarter of an acre to allow an RV for up to 10 years without building a permanent structure.

Boomers zoned this out after quite a few of them brought the land, lived in an RV or bottom grade mfg home, and slowly built a house cash starting with the foundation, then the basic living room, kitchen, bathroom core, then the bedrooms.

My parents did just that.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/pygmalion-thursday-january-8-2026

In a dramatic Truth Social post, the President explained, “People live in homes, not corporations.” President Trump announced he is “immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes.” ...

Trump is unlikely to deploy an outright ban, which would probably be unconstitutional. But Congress has very broad authority under the Commerce Clause to regulate institutional purchases of single‑family homes, because large investors operate in interstate capital and rental markets. So Trump (with help from Congress) could lawfully limit these investors’ access to federal programs like GSE guarantees, FHA insurance, and tax preferences, discouraging them to stop acquiring additional owner‑occupied housing.

The BBC reported that shares of related property firms immediately fell yesterday after Trump’s comments. For instance, Invitation Homes, which owns single-family homes, fell -6%. BlackRock fell almost -8% on the news, but recovered somewhat after the firm forcefully denied directly owning residential homes (which is true, but misleading; BlackRock invests in certain companies and investment funds that do buy residential homes at scale).

You’ll recall that the two main planks of the Democrats’ affordability narrative are housing and healthcare, which in turn are two of the biggest expenses that younger Americans face. By tackling a well-protected political lobby —Wall Street— Trump expertly outflanked Democrat bills planned for the congressional pipeline this year in advance of the midterms. If Trump’s initiative works, we could see real estate prices —especially in starter homes— plunge.

Excellent news for young couples.

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

But the Housing Experts on PatNet told me all last year that this wouldn't happen!

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

quite a few of them brought the land, lived in an RV or bottom grade mfg home, and slowly built a house cash starting with the foundation, then the basic living room, kitchen, bathroom core, then the bedrooms.

I had several high school friends whose parents lived in houses that were built over time as they lived in them. One guy even used parts from the demotion of a William And Mary building.

Trump can order mortgage bonds to be bought?

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

I don’t pay attention to the current market conditions locally but I visited a place in warm spring area Fremont, CA during last December break and heard a neighborhood house just sold for $1.5 that was listed for $2.1 few months prior. That was a drastic change around! Sounded like things are softening a little bit and good for young people to start a family.

Blue says

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

I don’t pay attention to the current market conditions locally but I visited a place in warm spring area Fremont, CA during last December break and heard a neighborhood house just sold for $1.5 that was listed for $2.1 few months prior. That was a drastic change around! Sounded like things are softening a little bit and good for young people to start a family.

Because young families are just itching to purchase 1.5 million dollar homes?

GNL says

Blue says

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15443687/us-housing-prices-fall-crash-austin-sandiego.html

Over HALF of US metros now seeing home prices fall in strongest sign yet a housing crash is looming

I don’t pay attention to the current market conditions locally but I visited a place in warm spring area Fremont, CA during last December break and heard a neighborhood house just sold for $1.5 that was listed for $2.1 few months prior. That was a drastic change around! Sounded like things are softening a little bit and good for young people to start a family.

Because young families are just itching to purchase 1.5 million dollar homes?

I’m not in Bay Area where all the techies walk around with millions in equity and half a million annual salaries. But last I heard every outhouse there starts at a million.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

all the techies walk around with millions in equity and half a million annual salaries

They just don't build. And they don't have half a million in salaries.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/honor-among-thieves-friday-january

Meanwhile, in the political arena, January’s surge continued yesterday. The AP dished a story headlined, “Trump says he wants government to buy $200B in mortgage bonds in a push to bring down mortgage rates.” The Democrats asked for the affordability fight; here it comes. ...

Yesterday, President Trump issued a post declaring that he will instruct Fannie and Freddie to use an existing war chest of about $200 billion in reserves (a rainy-day fund he wisely refused to burn off during Trump 1.0) to buy up mortgage bonds, a complicated financial move that experts say will help lower residential mortgage rates. The extent of the potential reduction is hotly debated. One Redfin economist quoted for the story estimated the move could shave 0.25 to 0.5 points off 30-year mortgage rates. ...

This news piles on yesterday’s announcement of a ban on hedge-fund vampires buying up residential properties. When enforced, it will increase the supply of homes, especially starter homes, which will lower prices. Starter homes might actually become available for, gasp, starters instead of being turned into rental portfolios for guys named Chadwell Gerard Bostley IV who summer in the Hamptons.

In other words, over two days, Trump announced plans to pressure both mortgage rates and housing prices.

That seems contradictory to me. Lower rates immediately create higher prices, because the same monthly payment can cover higher principal.

Patrick says

That seems contradictory to me. Lower rates immediately create higher prices, because the same monthly payment can cover higher principal.

Higher rates haven't decreased home prices on a national level for almost going on 4 years. Why do ya think lower rates at this rate level would increase prices ???

At this stage the lower rates would only decrease the amount of down payment the purchasers use.

He’s buying mortgages, that’s QE, buying bad debt at full price. He’s buying shitty mortgages that are going to default. That’s bail out. Otherwise things start crashing.

He’s rescuing asset prices. We can’t keep doing this, it’s become a permanent bailout. Money printer now spikes annually to keep that crap afloat.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

He’s buying mortgages, that’s QE, buying bad debt at full price. He’s buying shitty mortgages that are going to default. That’s bail out. Otherwise things start crashing.

He’s rescuing asset prices. We can’t keep doing this, it’s become a permanent bailout. Money printer now spikes annually to keep that crap afloat.

He's a realtard, he can't help it, LOL.

Misc says

Higher rates haven't decreased home prices on a national level for almost going on 4 years.

Misc says

"Higher rates haven't decreased home prices on a national level for almost going on 4 years."

That is because the housing market is a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.
There is no supply and demand in the housing market.

The_Deplorable says

Misc says

"Higher rates haven't decreased home prices on a national level for almost going on 4 years."

That is because the housing market is a monopoly. Something like 90% plus of the houses in the USA are owned by six financial companies.
There is no supply and demand in the housing market.

Why do you keep saying 90% of houses are owned by 6 financial companies? 40% owned free and clear alone.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-crowded-alley

The housing market got f’d up largely because the Fed bought up almost three Trillion dollars of MBS post-2008..

Trump will only make house prices MORE expensive with this stupid plan. ...

And where exactly are Trump's "representatives" going to get the cash to buy $200 billion (with a 'B') of MBS?

Fannie and Freddie? The Saudis? The Fed? Barron's college fund?

I think Congress is supposed to hold the purse strings, but that's in the U.S. Constitution, which we don't use any more.

“The problem is the Federal Reserve Board. When Janet Yellen decided, hey, let’s go out and buy a bunch of 30-year mortgage securities, and drove home prices up 50% in 5 years - that’s really the problem…
It’s ironic that the Fed has got a legal mandate from Congress to try and keep prices stable and then they go off and do something like this. So, you know, it’s part of the hubris, I think, that infects the central banking community when they think that they can go out and wave the magic wand and play God and get whatever outcome they think they’re going to get, and they don’t.”

Patrick says

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-crowded-alley

The housing market got f’d up largely because the Fed bought up almost three Trillion dollars of MBS post-2008..

Trump will only make house prices MORE expensive with this stupid plan. ...

And where exactly are Trump's "representatives" going to get the cash to buy $200 billion (with a 'B') of MBS?

Fannie and Freddie? The Saudis? The Fed? Barron's college fund?

I think Congress is supposed to hold the purse strings, but that's in the U.S. Constitution, which we don't use any more.

“The problem is the Federal Reserve Board. When Janet Yellen decided, hey, let’s go out and buy a bunch of 30-year mortgage securities, and drove home prices up 50% in 5 years - that’s really the problem…
It’s ironic that the Fed has got a legal mandate from Congress to try and keep prices stable and then they go off and do something like this. So, you know, it’s part of the hubris, I think, that infects the central banking community when they think that they can go out and wave the magic wand and play God and get whatever outcome they think they’re going to get, and they don’t.”

Again...

Trump does horrible things with housing market, everything to inflate the bubble. If you won’t buy it, he will have FN/FR buy up securities to keep it going.

Problem with not letting capitalism self correct is it costs exponentially more every time to keep the bubble from blowing.

The problem with letting capitalism self-correct at the moment is big losses in the midterms.

Patrick says

The problem with letting capitalism self-correct at the moment is big losses in the midterms.

Of course. It’s choosing short term benefits at expense of the next generation. Like no one cares about their kids or something. I’m scared for mine. They are inheriting inflation, debt, and nation still to this day overran with Indian scammers and South American illegals.

Patrick says

The problem with letting capitalism self-correct at the moment is big losses in the midterms.

Sales volume has increased over last couple of months for townhomes on east end of Panama City Beach, as it appears that prices are at least 20% below the all time high (ATH) set in 2022 and FHA and VA mortgage rates are around 5.6%.

It will significantly increase if the prices are 25% below ATH and the mortgage rates drop below 5.25%.

MolotovCocktail says

If so, then we should be seeing lots of proprietorships forming.

HeadSet says

f so, then we should be seeing lots of proprietorships forming.

Not at all. Covid taught them that the government can shut down/steal anything they've worked for just BECAUSE.

This is true. I knew a couple that owned a restaurant in San Francisco (Hops and Hominy) that was doing well, until the government just shut everything down and killed it.

Patrick says

This is true. I knew a couple that owned a restaurant in San Francisco (Hops and Hominy) that was doing well, until the government just shut everything down and killed it.

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

The secret real reason Insurance premiums are going up.

Boomers are passing earlier than predicted, driving is safer, homes are better built, Obamacare massive subsidies for private insurance companies, etc. Insurance companies should be wallowing in cash but for one reason:

But commercial real estate tanked and is probably never going to recover to Pre-COVID/Pre-Amazon/Pre-Online Health. Which is where, for decades, Insurers invested much of their excess from the premiums.

When State Farm sends you a 30% increase, it's because Midstate Office Building in nearby City is half empty with 23% below expected rental rates. The 7% is just the usual bullshit "We're going out of business" from insurers. Insurers that between 1970-2000s wallowed in cash from healthy, younger Boomer contributions more than offsetting any payouts to the smaller Silent gen.

Insurers are like regional chain furniture stores, going out of business for decades, ha.

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid?

Not all, but many did.

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

GNL says

Did all restaurants in San Fran die and not return after Covid? Or was it mostly the social/bar restaurants?

The secret real reason Insurance premiums are going up.

Boomers are passing earlier than predicted, driving is safer, homes are better built, Obamacare massive subsidies for private insurance companies, etc. Insurance companies should be wallowing in cash but for one reason:

But commercial real estate tanked and is probably never going to recover to Pre-COVID/Pre-Amazon/Pre-Online Health. Which is where, for decades, Insurers invested much of their excess from the premiums.

When State Farm sends you a 30% increase, it's because Midstate Office Building in nearby City is half empty with 23% below expected rental rates. The 7% is just the usual bullshit "We're going out of business" from insurers. Insurers that between 1970-2000s wallowed in cash from healthy, younger Boomer contributions more than offsetting any payouts to the smaller Silent gen.

Insurers are like regional chain furniture stores, going out of business for decades, ha.

It's worse than that - the hurricane-force tailwind that was the 30 year T-bond gong from 18% to 2% over the last 40 years is over. No free lunch from ever appreciating long bonds that constituted the bulk of their risk-free assets.

"I'm on a fixed income, besides, this is a concrete and steel building. Our home back in MN, MI, NY is made of wood and..."

I am getting a letter/postcard every week over last couple years where straw men representing institutional buyers asking if I want to sell rental property for cash. Institutions are still buying but not that much like used to be.

Looks like the rents didn't keep rising as extrapolaters extrapolated, but the carrying costs went up "Bigly"