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housing prices peak 2


               
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   857,611 views  7,397 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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7393   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 23, 11:10am  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says


Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years.


A temporary blocking maneuver that doesn't work for long. And all it does is freeze home sales and makes them unaffordable even more anyway. Wages are not keeping up.

Demographics is running this show no matter what.

I can see the Feds printing money to give first time buyers a nice down payment. Won't be enough for Tier 1 markets but could make a difference in breaking the frozen markets in exurban/red state America while keeping prices from falling badly a little bit longer.

Of course, there will be fraud, etc. Esp with immigrants.

And the Feds only have to politically keep the can kicking for 10 or so years, not forever. Just to keep the Boomers livin' in style before the bulk of them die off. This is also what is meant when we say "Demographics is running the show..". It's a Clusterfuck candle for assets burning at both ends of the demographic trend.
7394   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 23, 1:40pm  

Dropping rents increase consumer's disposable income.


7395   TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter   2026 Jan 23, 1:41pm  

FortWayneHatesRealtors says


Nothing? Try federal government, these people were able to print so much money to keep prices up, that prices of everything doubled last few years. You been to Walmart or any store lately? Everything doubled or tripled, including stocks. There are no productivity gains, we just inflated everything x2. Fed actually was forced to raise rates to prevent run away inflation, pissing off Trump who is into permanent inflation like the rest of federal government. Elites on both sides are invested into same markets, same hedge funds, they all want inflation. This is how we get national debt, ever increasing prices, and destruction of the middle class.

Printing Money didn't keep housing assets high in 2008-2012. It did bailout the banks

Investors in SFH are grossly exaggerated. Confined to a handful of markets, they've been leaving for 2-3 years now, and was never big. And "Investors" are 80% "Mom and Pops" with less than 50 properties. Not big REITs or Blackrock. They are also not banks.

They're simply not getting the rents as projected and the carrying costs rose. They will continue to abandon markets slowly, and in fact will help propel homeloaners into realism, just as the builders are.

There was also a huge upswing in multifamily construction starting in Obama's 2nd term and accelerating into COVID, which was not there in 2008.

Printing money isn't going to do jack and shit to bring about a buyer's market, just like it didn't during the Great Recession.

Homeloaners are just now, after about a year, slowly realizing it's not a seller's market anymore, many quarters after builders and investors realized that. This is the "Sticky Upwards". They made excuses last year, but this year they'll have to face reality if they want - or have to - cash out.

Bad knees can only be shoveling snow or climbing up to the second floor for so long, before the Florida Condo or Arizona Ranch has an irresistable siren song.

Not every Millennial that inherits wants to move across country to spend months finding a job in the Sunbelt, nor make 30% less. Florida pays less than $40k on average to teachers. Minnesota and New Jersey and Ill Noise pays well over $70k, that's a lot more than the savings with no income tax. Arizona and Texas only pay $62k

Don't forget the joy of living in a retirement community:
"Normal people go to bed after Jeopardy! Stop talking so loud in the screenroom at 8:30PM on Friday Nights!"
7396   Patrick   2026 Jan 23, 8:14pm  

Whatever happened to the news that Trump was going to allow 401(k) withdrawals to buy a house?


In a January 23, 2026, press interaction (today's date in your time zone), President Trump publicly distanced himself from the idea, stating he was "not a huge fan" of it. He cited the strong performance of retirement accounts as a reason to preserve those funds rather than encourage withdrawals for housing. Trump's adviser Kevin Hassett had previously suggested the plan as a way to help young buyers, but Trump omitted any mention of 401(k) changes in his recent housing policy executive order, which focused instead on curbing large institutional investors from buying single-family homes and other mortgage support measures.

As a result, the 401(k) withdrawal concept appears to have been shelved or deprioritized, with no formal announcement or implementation.
7397   Glock-n-Load   2026 Jan 23, 8:59pm  

Patrick says

Whatever happened to the news that Trump was going to allow 401(k) withdrawals to buy a house?



In a January 23, 2026, press interaction (today's date in your time zone), President Trump publicly distanced himself from the idea, stating he was "not a huge fan" of it. He cited the strong performance of retirement accounts as a reason to preserve those funds rather than encourage withdrawals for housing. Trump's adviser Kevin Hassett had previously suggested the plan as a way to help young buyers, but Trump omitted any mention of 401(k) changes in his recent housing policy executive order, which focused instead on curbing large institutional investors from buying single-family homes and other mortgage support measures.

As a result, the 401(k) withdrawal concept appears to have been shelved or deprioritized, with no formal announcement or implementation.


It’s so sickening to me that we’re looking to the government to “help”. Too much government, regulations and monopolies and/or corporations have turned our housing market, let alone the entire economy, into a top down managed one.

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