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50, 75, 100?


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2022 Jun 13, 5:04am   46,168 views  308 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

This "relentlessly aggressive" stance could include raising interest rates by 0.75% on Wednesday, a move economists at Barclays said Friday is now their baseline expectation.

"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.

"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html

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30   zzyzzx   2022 Jul 13, 7:21am  

No way they do anything above 75 basis points, because like I mentioned above Expecting the federal reserve to do the right thing is just plain silly.
31   HeadSet   2022 Jul 13, 8:15am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Inflation surges 9.1% in June, most since November 1981

The price of generic groceries has doubled within the last two years. If inflation was only 9%, prices should take 8 years to double.
32   fdhfoiehfeoi   2022 Jul 13, 8:52am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Supply chain issues only in the context of demand.


Supply chain issues in the context of raw materials. Value is just a measurement of time. When the time and effort it takes me to get raw material that you need for your product out of the ground is being compensated with fiat paper that is losing value daily, at some point I'm gonna say fuck you and stop working for worthless paper. Since this happens at the source, it ripples all the way down the chain. There issues at other places, transporters will stop moving goods for same reason, consumers will stop buying non-essential goods, but this first one is the worst.

This isn't transitory, it's not caused just by Scamdemic's, and it didn't even start in the 70's. This IS the purpose of central banks, we are living their end result worldwide. So to expect the Creature to act contrary to it's nature and "fix" is farcical. Like I've been saying for a while, you want a better world, make it, no one else is going to do it for you.
33   zzyzzx   2022 Jul 13, 9:12am  

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/07/fad-press-release-2022-07-13/

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 100 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 2½%, with the Bank Rate at 2¾% and the deposit rate at 2½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT).
34   exfatguy   2022 Jul 13, 10:12am  

As someone that's kept a good hold on credit card debt, and with other loans at low fixed rates, I kind of want to see interest rates go way up before I buy a house. My monthly payment ability is fixed, so the higher the rates, the lower the home price needs to be. This is good, as perhaps rate will go down in later years, allowing me to refinance and lower payment.

Lower principle amount is more valuable to me than a lower interest rate when I'm buying.
35   RC2006   2022 Jul 13, 10:17am  

exfatguy says

As someone that's kept a good hold on credit card debt, and with other loans at low fixed rates, I kind of want to see interest rates go way up before I buy a house. My monthly payment ability is fixed, so the higher the rates, the lower the home price needs to be. This is good, as perhaps rate will go down in later years, allowing me to refinance and lower payment.

Lower principle amount is more valuable to me than a lower interest rate when I'm buying.


Agree if all the turmoil drives prices down and isn't countered by inflation. Either way rates need to go much higher.
36   GNL   2022 Jul 13, 10:37am  

exfatguy says

As someone that's kept a good hold on credit card debt, and with other loans at low fixed rates, I kind of want to see interest rates go way up before I buy a house. My monthly payment ability is fixed, so the higher the rates, the lower the home price needs to be. This is good, as perhaps rate will go down in later years, allowing me to refinance and lower payment.

Lower principle amount is more valuable to me than a lower interest rate when I'm buying.

I've always believed the best time to buy is when rates are at their highest. I had a Realtor try to tell me that high rates cause inflation. Houses, over the last 20 years(?) have gone up in large part to the steady falling of rates.
37   GNL   2022 Jul 13, 10:38am  

I understand the Fed raised another .75 today but I haven't been able to confirm that.
38   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 14, 6:55am  

Fed Could Weigh Historic 100 Basis-Point Hike After Inflation Scorcher.

Federal Reserve officials may debate a historic one percentage-point rate hike later this month after another searing inflation report piled pressure on the central bank to act.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-could-weigh-historic-100-145945366.html
40   clambo   2022 Jul 14, 7:16am  

It’s almost ironic; raising interest rates will not accomplish anything except make things worse for the average guy. But, a good result will be the socialist loser Democrats will be blamed and lose in November, like 2010 all over again.

It couldn’t happen to worse bunch of assholes.

The people who are not prepared for this inflation are too young to remember the 70’s.
41   zzyzzx   2022 Jul 14, 7:27am  

WineHorror1 says

I understand the Fed raised another .75 today but I haven't been able to confirm that.


Didn't happen.
42   GNL   2022 Jul 14, 8:30am  

clambo says

It’s almost ironic; raising interest rates will not accomplish anything except make things worse for the average guy. But, a good result will be the socialist loser Democrats will be blamed and lose in November, like 2010 all over again.

It couldn’t happen to worse bunch of assholes.

The people who are not prepared for this inflation are too young to remember the 70’s.

Are you trying to say Paul Volcker did the wrong thing?
43   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 23, 11:08am  

July Fed Meeting Preview: Markets Expect Another Big Rate Hike.

Markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver another aggressive rate hike at its upcoming meeting on July 26-27. The Federal Reserve‘s 75 bps rate hike in June to 1.5% to 1.75% was its largest since 1994.

The FOMC will likely make its second consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate increase and continue to allow assets to roll off its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet as it attempts to lower inflation without sending the U.S. economy into a recession.

The S&P 500 is down more than 20% year to date, thanks to growing concerns that the Fed will not achieve a “soft landing” for the economy.

On July 5, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes jumped above the yields on 10-year Treasury notes, a phenomenon known as a yield curve inversion. More than two-thirds of past yield curve inversions have been followed by U.S. recessions within the following year.

Another 75 bps Rate Hike Is Expected in July
The bond market is currently pricing about a 90% chance of another 75 bps rate hike at the July Fed meeting. According to the CME Group, there’s roughly a 9% chance of a 100 bps rate hike.

A second consecutive 75 bps Fed interest rate increase would increase the federal funds rate range to between 2.25% and 2.5%.

The bond market is pricing in an 83.4% chance the target rate range will climb to between 3.25% and 3.5% or higher by the end of 2022.

The FOMC is also expected to continue its plan to allow up to $30 billion in Treasury securities and $17.5 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to mature and roll off its monthly balance sheet.

Starting in September, the Fed plans to ramp its monthly roll-off to $60 billion in Treasurys and $35 billion in MBS per month.

In June, the Fed updated its long-term U.S. economic projections to reflect its less rosy outlook for GDP growth and inflation. The Fed cut its 2022 GDP growth estimate from 2.8% to 1.7% and its 2023 GDP growth estimate from 2.2% to 1.7%.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/july-fed-meeting-preview%3A-markets-expect-another-big-rate-hike
44   AD   2022 Jul 23, 1:23pm  

From 2010 2016 the Fed Funds rate was 0.25%. It last peaked around 3% back in late 2018.

It's now around 1.75%.

I suspect this week that Fed will raise it another 0.75%. That is what Wall Street is expecting.

I think the Fed wants to raise it to around 3.5% to 4% in order to give it enough margin to lower rates again without having to drop them below 1.5%.

.
45   richwicks   2022 Jul 23, 2:56pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says





I have to say the Wizard Oz was a freaking awesome film. Didn't appreciate it as a kid since it was on television EVERY Thanksgiving, but that was one trippy crazy film.
48   Booger   2022 Aug 23, 4:43pm  

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jpmorgan-forecasts-another-super-sized-rate-hike-fed-september.amp

JPMorgan forecasts another super-sized rate hike by the Fed in September
49   HeadSet   2022 Aug 23, 6:13pm  

Booger says

JPMorgan forecasts another super-sized rate hike by the Fed in September

Not soon enough.
50   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 26, 12:47pm  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-powell-speech-jackson-hole-2022-140010694.html

Fed Chair Powell: Rates will rise until 'job is done' bringing down inflation

Powell said more rate hikes will be needed, with “another unusually large” increase still on the table for the Fed’s next meeting in September. The Fed chair reiterated that “at some point,” the Fed will move to slow the pace of its price increases.

I will believe it when I see it.. Stock market not liking talk of rate normalization today.
51   GNL   2022 Aug 26, 1:38pm  

I thought Biden said inflation was 0.
52   Shaman   2022 Aug 26, 2:28pm  

GNL says

Shaman says


This isn’t going to fix inflation.
The supply chain must be fixed first.
I still can’t get parts or components or even freaking grease without a huge wait. That means we pay whatever it takes to get what we need to keep operating.
Which drives prices up.

What industry are you in?


Trans-ocean shipping.
53   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 13, 11:53am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-hike-100-bps-180115275.html

Reuters Fed likely to hike by 100 bps in September -Nomura

ERECTION INTENSFYING!!!
54   HeadSet   2022 Sep 13, 2:37pm  

zzyzzx says

Reuters Fed likely to hike by 100 bps in September -Nomura

Not enough.
55   fdhfoiehfeoi   2022 Sep 13, 4:53pm  

1% won't do shit to stop this train-wreck. Don't write 75 or 100, it's bullshit jargon to make it look like they're doing something more than they are.

If they raise rates, stocks tank, and the economy goes under. If lower rates, the train wreck gains speed, stocks implode, and the economy goes under.
56   Blue   2022 Sep 13, 5:37pm  

Did any one remember Austin power, guy has no clue millions vs billions difference so does the Biden and rest of the clowns force people be in houses to cover up stuff including stealing public money under fake medicine while printing $T as if they were $B. Now people have to face consequences in the form of higher inflation. It cannot take too long to see inflation affect in asset prices.
57   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Sep 21, 5:48am  

100. Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
58   Shaman   2022 Sep 21, 6:00am  

NuttBoxer says

1% won't do shit to stop this train-wreck. Don't write 75 or 100, it's bullshit jargon to make it look like they're doing something more than they are.

If they raise rates, stocks tank, and the economy goes under. If lower rates, the train wreck gains speed, stocks implode, and the economy goes under.


You’re right. Either way the economy gets it. I think they’re trying to tank top economy (which has proven resilient so far) as a tactic to get inflation under control. I think they’ll just create stagflation with this method. Especially if they raise rates too much.
The housing market is already in the toilet for most places. Home builders are stopping building homes, even though a housing shortage exists.
Imports from China are way down right now, indicating much less consumerism going on. People are tightening their belts and ending the purchasing party they’ve engaged in for the last few years.

I’m not sure if unemployment will become significantly worse. There are too many infilled jobs and too many people are dying suddenly. As that escalates, and the jab becomes more deadly, able bodied workers are going to be at a premium.

So my prediction is that we will have high interest rates, low consumption, a tight labor market, and stocks won’t do well. It’s hard to see a bright future when investment in new projects has dried up and everyone is in survival mode, even if the healthy ones still have jobs.
Inflation will continue until the jab deaths really begin to be noticed on a grand scale. Then it will disappear as people discover their inescapable plight.
59   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 21, 7:03am  

Shaman says

Especially if they raise rates too much.


I don't think that we have to worry about that.
60   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 21, 8:48am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/fed-should-hike-interest-rate-rates-150-basis-points-wells-fargo.html

‘Rip off the Band-Aid’: Wells Fargo makes case for 150 basis point hike at Fed meeting

Still weak!
61   RC2006   2022 Sep 21, 8:53am  

They are loosing control.
62   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 21, 11:10am  

It's 75
64   AD   2022 Sep 21, 11:24am  

I am saying a major downturn in tourism in the Florida panhandle.

I have not seen it this quiet before, even with gas prices lowered (due to artifical means by Biden drawing down the emergency reserves).

.
65   AD   2022 Sep 21, 11:26am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Wimps.


I see the Fed raising the Fed Funds rate from 3.25% to 4% next November. I see them holding the rate steady between 4 and 5% in 2023.

.
66   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 21, 11:52am  

ad says

I have not seen it this quiet before


Are you adjusting for seasonality?
67   ElYorsh   2022 Sep 21, 12:03pm  

ad says

I am saying a major downturn in tourism in the Florida panhandle.

I have not seen it this quiet before, even with gas prices lowered (due to artifical means by Biden drawing down the emergency reserves).

.


Same thing in San Diego. Tourism was dead this summer. Bills are coming due and low season has arrived. There's not going to be much for Christmas economy.
68   AD   2022 Sep 21, 12:09pm  

I am listening to Powell on Bloomberg Radio (WBBR).

Powell is saying American businesses have to feel pain so prices including wages come down.

He said wages will go down a lot less relative to inflation decreasing, so there will be a net positive effect to the working class.

We need more productivity gains such as from innovation. Hopefully businesses will feel more incentive to promote productivity gains.
69   AD   2022 Sep 21, 12:09pm  



The Fed raised the rate by 0.75% as expected to 3.25%. This is the highest the rate has been since 2007. The Fed indicated the rate will likely be around 4.25% by end of this year.

Notice Obama had almost 0% rate for almost all his Presidency, yet annual growth averaged only about 1.8% during his two terms :-/

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