patrick.net

Misc says

DeficitHawk says

So, given the limited tool set.. it can either lower short term rates by printing money or raise them by not printing money... Which do you want them to do?

It sure can buy long term bonds and mortgage backed securities, thus reducing long term rates. It has in the past in situations where interest rates were less outta line than today. This would increase the buying power of young Americans with respect to houses.

It can but its crazy inflationary, and would send asset/house prices sky high. It can only suppress rates while it is actively buying, and the inflationary bounce back would be a sight to behold. They did it 2008 when the baseline expectation was deflation... Today we have inflation above target....

Its called quantitative easing. Is this what you are advocating the FED to do?

DeficitHawk says

Its called quantitative easing. Is this what you are advocating the FED to do?

Yes. Long term bonds are trading a full percentage point above where they have historically been given today's inflation expectations, and mortgages are trading a a record high premium over the 10 year note. The market is not functioning properly, so the government must intervene.

Misc says

Long term bonds are trading a full percentage point

Long term bonds are set by market expectations for inflation. What do you think will happen if there is a massive QE influx?

Sure they can lower bond prices for a little while while they actively buy, but asset/house prices would moon, and as soon as the QE faucet is turned off, we'd have to live with the inflationary aftermath, including even higher bond rates, as well as higher prices! How does this help anyone?

DeficitHawk says

Misc says

Long term bonds are trading a full percentage point

Long term bonds are set by market expectations for inflation. What do you think will happen if there is a massive QE influx?

Sure they can lower bond prices for a little while while they actively buy, but asset/house prices would moon, and as soon as the QE faucet is turned off, we'd have to live with the inflationary aftermath, including even higher bond rates, as well as higher prices! How does this help anyone?

Here's a quick look at the current bond yields/

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

The "TIPS" yields are what the market expects to get paid after inflation. Historically for the 10 and 30 year bond it has been about 1%. Today it is 2% for the ten and 2,5% for the 30 year bond. The spread between the 10 year note and the 30 year mortgage rate has been about 1.5%. Today it is about 2.3%. The market is not functioning properly, mortgage rates are waaay too high and this has huge negative effects on the country.

All the bond traders know this, but I guess some are short a few trillion dollars worth of long term bonds. The Fed is complacent in this, so Trump is gonna have to fix that crap.

Ok so Misc is clearly on the "Print, baby, print!" Side.

Is that where everyone is at?

Misc says

Interest rates are too high to support the increase in housing we need.

Disagree. Lowering interest just increases prices of homes. Mortgages should be at 7-8% as they typically were before the easy money of the early 2000s (except the Carter years where mortgages hit 16% and up).

DeficitHawk says

I don't agree with Trump on this. I don't want the dollar devalued to avoid recession. I agree with Powell that keeping inflation down is important.

I also agree with Powell here. Trump has a different approach as he feels that the best way to fight inflation is to lower the deficit. Trump sees the FED lowering rates as an easy way to lower the government debt burden. Cutting spending is politically difficult, but I think Trump's future plan is to keep spending constant while growing the economy and thus tax revenues.

DeficitHawk says

I still dont understand what you are advocating for. I will explain why I care:

I see President Trump attacking Jerome Powell and the Fed for holding interest rates too high. (i.e. Trump wants Powell to print more money so that we can have lower interest rates). Powell is resisting this, saying he does not want to cause inflation. This has caused a bunch of hatred towards Powell and the Fed for not supporting Trumps political initiative, which is to devalue the dollar by inflation.

Interest rates are the diversion. It's all about the growth of the money supply. Please take the time to watch this video - "Princes of the Yen." It explains a lot about what central banks are really doing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

Misc says

Interest rates are waaaaaaaaay too high based on historical precedent.

What historical precedent would that be?

My parents had double digit mortgage rates for their first house they bought in 1974.

HeadSet says

but I think Trump's future plan is to keep spending constant while growing the economy and thus tax revenues

Reagan tried that. Revenues doubled during his eight years. But Congress spent like drunken sailors and he never put his foot down.

MolotovCocktail says

Misc says

Interest rates are waaaaaaaaay too high based on historical precedent.

What historical precedent would that be?

My parents had double digit mortgage rates for their first house they bought in 1974.

The difference between the mortgage rates and the expected inflation rates over a 10 year period.

DeficitHawk says

Ok so Misc is clearly on the "Print, baby, print!" Side.

Is that where everyone is at?

No, while I want to abolish the FED I'm on Powells side here although it-s ironic and hypocritical for the FED to suddenly care about inflation, while they handed the previous administration ZIRP for a decade, and growing the money supply like no tomorrow.

The money supply never recovered from 2008.

The sheer amount of debt that is backstopped from this base money is waaaaaaaaaay beyond belief. Try by a multiple of about 20. Ever try to pay 120 trillion in debt with only 6 trillion in base money, You simply cannot do that. Everyone in banking knows the system is bankrupt. It is just a matter of musical chairs until more printing bails out the rich.

https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1948206791449346162

No kidding? A renovation for $3.1 billion? This is fraud - stealing money from the American people. This needs to be investigated and have these thieves arrested and jailed. Fire Jerome Powell right now!

Presidents never 'appoint' the Fed chairmen, all appearances to the contrary, and they can't 'fire' them. They can only be 'fired' from the Euro banksters and the Vatican. So, Trump has to point to their obvious criminal malfeasance and money printing/laundering to pressure the Rothschild minion from office.

Trump rightly points out that these foreign banking entities can put a major downdraft stall on the economy more or less arbitrarily and at will without any blow back or consultation with the Executive.

If Powell isn't the snarling face of a mafia crook, nobody is.

Trump photo very much like iconic comic about the Fed.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/valuation-ambiguity

Richard Werner

John Maynard Keynes “had been appointed director of the Bank of England, and you have to realize the Bank of England was 100% privately owned, and to be a director, you had to be a significant shareholder. And that is billionaire-level nowadays. So, he was doing pretty well moving away from the truth step by step.”

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is 100% privately owned, and that is really the center where all the decisions are made. You have the Washington board of the Fed, but that's a political shop. The actual central bank operations are all in New York, 100% privately owned.”

“The central banks - when push comes to shove - they pursue the agenda of concentrating the banking system and reducing the number of banks, which increases the power of the central banks.”

“President Nixon detached the dollar from gold, which is a very euphemistic way of putting it. i.e., Before America defaulted on its international obligations, August 1971”

Patrick, I see you've discovered Richard Werner. Check out Princes of the Yen, also by him. There's a film about the book:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

Patrick says

Richard Werner

John Maynard Keynes “had been appointed director of the Bank of England, and you have to realize the Bank of England was 100% privately owned, and to be a director, you had to be a significant shareholder. And that is billionaire-level nowadays. So, he was doing pretty well moving away from the truth step by step.”

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is 100% privately owned, and that is really the center where all the decisions are made. You have the Washington board of the Fed, but that's a political shop. The actual central bank operations are all in New York, 100% privately owned.”

“The central banks - when push comes to shove - they pursue the agenda of concentrating the banking system and reducing the number of banks, which increases the power of the central banks.”

https://x.com/OppCostApp/status/1952831340597948565


https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/the-creature-from-jekyll-island

IMPORTANT NOTE — the above video shills bitcoin. Bitcoin is clear fraud.

Patrick says

https://x.com/OppCostApp/status/1952831340597948565


https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/the-creature-from-jekyll-island

IMPORTANT NOTE — the above video shills bitcoin. Bitcoin is clear fraud.

Is this an AI video?

Patrick says

The 2025 house looks a hell of a lot nicer though.

https://rumble.com/v6wstig-richard-werner-exposes-the-evils-of-the-fed-and-the-link-between-banking-wa.html

Richard Werner Exposes the Evils of the Fed & the Link Between Banking, War, and the CIA

World-renowned economist Richard Werner on where money comes from: banks just create it out of thin air, and keep a pile for themselves.

0:00 How Werner Predicted the Japanese Financial Crisis
14:16 How Banks Create Money From Nothing
24:09 You’re Being Lied to About the Bank’s Role in Economics
33:59 The Evils of the Federal Reserve
38:51 Why Are Banks Allowed to Create Money?
57:12 Was Leaving the Gold Standard a Mistake?
1:09:30 The Difference Between Banks and Central Banks
1:24:26 How Society and Culture Are Impacted by Banks
1:33:11 Did the US Purposely Destroy the Japanese Economy?
1:35:42 The Central Bank’s Attempt to Blacklist Werner
1:39:03 The CIA’s Threat to Werner
1:47:24 Why Werner’s Research on Credit Creation Scared the Central Banks
2:03:55 The Link Between Central Banks and Warfare
2:18:02 Where Is the US Economy Headed?
2:29:49 The World Bank’s Debt Trap to Exploit Developing Countries
2:35:34 The Dark Truth About Central Bank Digital Currency
2:40:19 Where Can People Learn More About This?

original link

https://x.com/beinlibertarian/status/1954184750693814610

Listen to Ron Paul.

It’s not sexy, but if you want to know why you can’t afford to buy a house and wages haven’t kept up with the cost of living…

You need to understand the Federal Reserve and why it needs to be abolished.

Nothing gets fixed until then.

Patrick says

You need to understand the Federal Reserve and why it needs to be abolished.

Very uphill battle. The Federal Reserve allows the government to fund trillion-dollar wars and pay a massive welfare state, all without ever having to have a balanced budget or pay off the accumulated national debt. Inflation is the result and actually is the government's friend by allowing what little debt is paid down to be paid down in cheaper dollars. Politicians of both parties know this and figure deleting the Federal Reserve and setting up a backed currency would mean less money to dole out buy votes and get kickbacks.

GNL says

Patrick says

The 2025 house looks a hell of a lot nicer though.

Depends on the area kinda. In San Francisco at 1.3 million it would be just the outhouse on about 50 sq feet lot with some homeless sleeping across the street or in it while shooting up drugs and yelling at light post in between.

Fortwaye says

GNL says

Patrick says

The 2025 house looks a hell of a lot nicer though.

Depends on the area kinda. In San Francisco at 1.3 million it would be just the outhouse on about 50 sq feet lot with some homeless sleeping across the street or in it while shooting up drugs and yelling at light post in between.

The meme is very specifically comparing the houses, not the areas the houses are located in.

HeadSet says

The Federal Reserve allows the government to fund trillion-dollar wars and pay a massive welfare state, all without ever having to have a balanced budget or pay off the accumulated national debt.

Yes, but there are even more benefits for rich bankers. First of all, they regularly get bailed out by newly printed money. This means they can make risky bets and keep the winnings, while pushing the losses onto the rest of us when the bets go bad.

But even bigger, and never mentioned in public by anyone, is that knowing the interest rate changes in advance is a license to rob the bond market. Fed insiders can tip off friends who can make bond bets which return billions, guaranteed, since bond prices move mechanically with interest rates. Rates go up, bonds go down, and vice versa.

Or hell, the Fed can simply credit the bank accounts of its friends. They've never been audited, so how do we know they aren't doing that?

https://rudy.substack.com/p/a-profoundly-dovish-shift

“Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses…Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance….The past five years have been a painful reminder of the hardship that high inflation imposes, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of necessities.”

Quite a remarkable statement from Jay Powell at Jackson Hole.

To summarize:

1. Yes, we know we've abysmally failed our inflation mandate, and you're very worried about the cost of living.
2. We don't care.
3. To repeat, we are aware that inflation hurts almost all of you...but we still don't care. ...

“I have written repeatedly that the Fed is actually a political entity. They claimed to be politically independent, but the reason they did it [cut in 2024] was because it was seven weeks before the presidential elections, and we all knew that there was no love lost between Powell and Trump at the end of the Trump first term. So clearly he was not going to be re-nominated if Trump got reelected last November, but his chances were significantly better if Kamala Harris came to office. So I think it was a move which was done close to the elections. There was no indication that the economy urgently needed a 50 basis point cut, but he did it. I think there was a significant amount of political motivation, in addition to a wrong calculation about inflation. They were all related factors. I don't think the economy needs any cut at all at this time. And the reason for that is that inflation is edging up.”

Komal Sri-Kumar

As Joseph Wang pointed out last year: “Basically, every single person who donates who works at the Fed donates to Democratic Party." ...



"I now realized there was an entire industry, called consumer finance, that basically existed to rip people off.”
- Steve Eisman in The Big Short




Michael Kao on a “Reverse Marshall Plan”
“You've got a structural dynamic from China where they are exporting what is essentially hostile industrial policy that will hollow out any competitor that's that's pursuing a free market path. Because it's cheaper to just buy Chinese goods. Let's forget about manufacturing anything here. Let's just buy everything from China. Well, the problem is that China is our biggest geopolitical adversary. So that's how we got into this mess. Now we have to unwind it, and it it's a fraught path, but so far I like what I see.”

“I think it was Macron who was saying, "Well, you know, we obviously need to turn to China more." And I put out a lot of tweets back in April and May saying that would exactly be akin to inviting the fox right into the hen house.”

“For the EU to say that the solution is to align more closely with China, well, be my guest, because then you you will see your entire industrial sector get hollowed out.”

“It never made sense to me why we would necessarily have tariffs on what I call t-shirts and tchotchkes, because look, we don't care. We want to be able to have cheap Chinese goods in areas that are not vital to national security, but in critical path industries like chips, ship building, pharmaceuticals, defense, energy, right? These areas I think need to be targeted.” ...

I’m reminded of this passage, from Richard Evans in The Coming of the Third Reich:

"It was not least as a consequence of the inflation that Weimar culture developed its fascination with criminals, embezzlers, gamblers, manipulators, thieves & crooks of all kinds. Life seemed to be a game of chance, survival a matter of the arbitrary impact of incomprehensible economic forces.” ...

Grant Williams and Vic Sperandeo
“The debt to GDP ratio keeps rising, but they don’t care. There’s no constituency to make a change. So let me just say this. The endgame, 100% convinced, is hyperinflation.” - VS

“I think if the average person in the street understood the way the monetary system really works, there’d be mass crowds of people storming the Marriner Eccles building tomorrow.” ...

Jean-Claude Juncker:
"We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it."

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”

“Same guy, those two quotes, that’s all you need to know. That’s all you need to know.” - Grant Williams
Speaking of Juncker, here’s another gem from Juncker on the introduction of the Euro:

"We decide on something, leave it lying around and wait and see what happens. If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back."

The Fed is not a court. See Article III.

The Fed is not an organ of Congress. See Article I.

Therefore, by simple process of elimination, the Fed must be part of the Article II Executive Branch. And that is even without making the obvious points that the Fed issues regulations. It administers federal banking laws. These are executive functions.

Or
@JamesSurowiecki
, has your archaeological dig discovered a previously unknown Article of the Constitution creating a fourth branch of government? Or did we all miss an amendment to the Constitution adopted at some point before 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was passed?

Without its own branch-enabling Article in the original Constitution or a constitutional amendment authorizing “an independent central bank,” your concept of an “independent central bank” branch as “its own thing” is farcical.
https://x.com/JeffClarkUS/status/1960679943387443348

https://x.com/j_fishback/status/1960505384709353782