patrick.net

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (ticker: BND)

annual return
2025: 7% year to date
each of last 5 years: - 0.35%
each of last 10 years: 2%
since inception in April 2007: 3.2%

Based on my last post, seems like there is more upside potential for investment-grade bond funds over the next few years after reeling from interest rate increases back in 2022.

AD says

Based on my last post, seems like there is more upside potential for investment-grade bond funds over the next few years after reeling from interest rate increases back in 2022.

Stick with treasuries. The spread between corporates and treasuries is very small because of programmed investments and investor apathy/ That'll change if there is a downturn. People can trust the Rating Companies at their own peril.

Maybe younger generation and even Gen X is a lot more aggressive with asset allocation now, and that is why (as per my recent post on this thread) that less are investing in bond funds.

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https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/housing-affordability-generational-wealth/

Convinced they will never be able to afford a home, many young people are giving up on saving for a down payment and adopting reckless financial habits instead, according to a concerning new study.

The individual financial consequences and generational economic fallout from growing homeownership despair could be profound, according to the study from economists Seung Hyeong Lee of Northwestern University and Younggeun Yoo of the University of Chicago.

The economists find that renters who give up on buying a home start behaving very differently from those who still hope to become homeowners, with the discouraged group squandering their money, slacking off at work, and gambling on risky investments out of desperation.

"Housing has become increasingly out of reach for younger generations, and many households are now abandoning the goal of homeownership altogether," the authors write. "Our empirical evidence demonstrates that renters who no longer expect to become homeowners behave very differently from those still trying to buy a home."

It comes as housing affordability remains at multidecade lows, with home prices at record highs and mortgage rates still elevated. Over the past five years, the typical mortgage payment has increased by 82%, while median incomes have grown by just 26%, according to a recent estimate from John Burns Research and Consulting.

Shaman, the creator of this thread, called it right as Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (ticker: BND) bottomed around November 2022 when this thread was created.

AD says

Look at the 2024 values, and if this trend or pattern is true, then expect a recession within 6 to 9 months.

Well?

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

AD says

Look at the 2024 values, and if this trend or pattern is true, then expect a recession within 6 to 9 months.

Well?

Trump will fix it.

AD says

.

As far as bonds, stocks and economy, notice everytime the 10 Yr minus 2 Yr is no more than Zero, within a year there is a recession.

Look at the 2024 values, and if this trend or pattern is true, then expect a recession within 6 to 9 months.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

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Aaaaaaand it didn't happen.

Nothing happens because full force of government keeps this fake economy going.

RWSGFY says

Aaaaaaand it didn't happen.

Because of the Trump Fix.