patrick.net

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Yes, eventually the US dollar will become toast too. But only after the Euro, Yen, etc. are totally fucked first. Between now and then, the dollar's value against those other currencies will soar.

really? when will it start soaring against MXN? its down about 15% since 2 years ago.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

indc says

It matters because can kicking can have consequences. If other major economies do not buy treasuries and ignore dollar for most of their transactions then interest rates cant go low and USA economy will enter death spiral.

That has nothing to do with WTF is happening in China regarding real estate developers. And it REALLY has nothing to do with US real estate developers that go bankrupt or not

What planet are you on?

INDC was posting about de-dollarization, which means foreign exchanges are not going to hold as many or any short term US Treauries which can be easily converted to dollars. They don't need to since the dollar won't be used as much for their international commerce.

So if they buy less US Treasuries then that reduces the demand, and likely causes US Treasury interest rates to increase to make them more attractive to the fewer foreign buyers.

All this does not matter Bubba, since 2008 the Federal Reserve has this role of being the buyer of US Treasuries via Quantitative Easing (QE).

Look at what The Wolfman at Wolf Street wrote, he says the floor or bottom is around $5 trillion for the Federal Reserve balance. sheet. He does not see them getting lower than that if they continue Quantitative Tightening (QT).

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AD says

INDC was posting about de-dollarization

WTF do real estate developers going out of biz have to do with any if this?

Nothing.

AD says

to hold as many or any short term US Treauries which can be easily converted to dollars.

(Sigh)

Way more debt in dollars is not held by those the US owes or those that owe the US. It is held by foreigners who owe other foreigners.

That drives up demand for dollars. That in turn makes treasuries more valuable vis a vis their currencies and others.

Some are trying to find alternatives because they are losers who find it increasingly expensive to aquire dollars for that. But because of the above vicious cycle, they are pissing in the wind.

They also can not trade if the US Navy starts seizing or even sinking their shipping, should it come to being serious.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

WTF do real estate developers going out of biz have to do with any if this?

Nothing.

It has everything to do with economics. Dollar was supreme because everyone was kicking the can. Now china is sending strong message no more kicking the can. They dont care what US is doing with its money. It will trade in its own currency. And stable currency is an attractive currency. The froth china created by being slave to US for 40 yrs will be completely destroyed before it will grow again with its own characteristics.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

They also can not trade if the US Navy starts seizing or even sinking their shipping, should it come to being serious.

Can you guess why US is letting in so many illegals?

indc says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

They also can not trade if the US Navy starts seizing or even sinking their shipping, should it come to being serious.

Can you guess why US is letting in so many illegals?

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UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

So the Russians fly cargo planes filled with gold to pay for things.

That's good news if so.

Of course it would be more efficient to have a trustworthy institution like the old Amsterdam Wisselbank, which could simply move gold around within its vaults.

https://www.beursgeschiedenis.nl/en/moment/the-bank-of-amsterdam/

With the sole option of using coins, it was physically difficult to complete share transactions that involved several thousands of guilders. Therefore, every exchange trader that mattered had an account at the Wisselbank. The Wisselbank introduced a book-entry system that enabled customers to settle payments with other account holders. ...

The customers of the bank felt secure about the fact that their capital was being kept in the basement of the city hall and that the city of Amsterdam guaranteed their assets. The former entrance of the Wisselbank in the old city hall on the Dam Square – the current palace – is still marked by an image of Mercury, the Roman god of trade.

Partly because of the Wisselbank, that would continue to exist until 1820, Amsterdam could develop into a global financial center.

indc says

Can you guess why US is letting in so many illegals?

Why bother?

indc says

Can you guess why US is letting in so many illegals?

Not sure what is happening. Look the "news",
https://www.businessinsider.com/undocumented-immigration-us-recession-outlook-job-market-economy-soft-landing-2024-3?op=1

Blue says

Not sure what is happening. Look the "news",
https://www.businessinsider.com/undocumented-immigration-us-recession-outlook-job-market-economy-soft-landing-2024-3?op=1

What does this have to do with the subject of the Bullshit That Is BRICS De-dollarization?

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

What does this have to do with the subject of the Bullshit That Is BRICS De-dollarization?

I guess no one knows why US is allowing so many illegals.
In future there will be silos, each country will have its own sphere of influence. They will trade within that sphere mostly. Hence they will not need dollars.

Why US needs the illegals. It needs them because citizens will not be willing to work for pennies as they have many defined benefits which will force them not to work for "free".

Without this labor US cannot make affordable products as it was importing them before. Now because of de-dollarization US has to make its own products for its consumption.

And with money being tight US will not have much money to spend towards defense.

indc says

guess no one knows why US is allowing so many illegals.
In future there will be silos, each country will have its own sphere of influence. They will trade within that sphere mostly. Hence they will not need dollars.

Why US needs the illegals. It needs them because citizens will not be willing to work for pennies as they have many defined benefits which will force them not to work for "free".

Without this labor US cannot make affordable products as it was importing them before. Now because of de-dollarization US has to make its own products for its consumption.

And with money being tight US will not have much money to spend towards defense.

Don't do drugs and post on PatNet at the same time.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Don't do drugs and post on PatNet at the same time.

I appreciate you keeping this thread active. We dont know the future, but that is what the person in video is saying now.

All I am saying is be better prepared.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

indc says

guess no one knows why US is allowing so many illegals.
In future there will be silos, each country will have its own sphere of influence. They will trade within that sphere mostly. Hence they will not need dollars.

Why US needs the illegals. It needs them because citizens will not be willing to work for pennies as they have many defined benefits which will force them not to work for "free".

Without this labor US cannot make affordable products as it was importing them before. Now because of de-dollarization US has to make its own products for its consumption.

And with money being tight US will not have much money to spend towards defense.

Don't do drugs and post on PatNet at the same time.

Please tell me you are being coy as far as pretending the RINO's or Chamber of Commerce/Country Club Republicans are not supportive of an open border.

DaSantis is trying in Florida going after these bubba home builders and contractors hiring day workers who look like they could be extra's in Mel Gibson's Apocalypto.

My favorite sheriff Frank McKeithen (alias "Saint Frank") use to have his deputies park outside the high rises being built on the beach with their lights on.

That would cause at least 3/4 of the workforce at those sites to scatter like cockroaches. You ain't lucky unless you have a sheriff like Saint Frank.

The problem was the fucktard soy boy, white liberal media started to report this because it was too effective:

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2007/06/28/florida-sheriff-targets-illegals-at-building-sites/

That is what they do, as you know you are a threat if they start giving you media coverage.

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UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

indc says

guess no one knows why US is allowing so many illegals.
In future there will be silos, each country will have its own sphere of influence. They will trade within that sphere mostly. Hence they will not need dollars.

I'm not sure if international trade will completely shut down. It may be a lot less as far as percentage of GDP as for example, the economy of exchanging goods and services transforms due to new technology and methods such as 3-D printing, etc.

Look at how just the US Postal Service was impacted by the Internet compared to the size of its workforce over the last 20 years. Population is increasing, yet the post office workforce has shrunk, albeit with some help from technology like auto mail sorters.

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AD says

I'm not sure if international trade will completely shut down.

I am not saying trade will shut down. It will not happen in dollars anymore. Trade will mostly happen within the sphere of influence.

China will work with East-Asian countries.
India will work with Indian Ocean countries.
African countries will work within the continent.
Same for South America.
Russia will work with Asian countries and maybe with Europe.
America and European countries will work closely which is same as now.

And dollar usage will drastically come down.

indc says

America and European countries will work closely which is same as now.

And dollar usage will drastically come down.

Okay just like what is happening now and I'll give credit to Biden as far as electronic manufacturing investments in the USA.

What does that mean for standard of living or quality of life in the USA ?

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indc says

"Can you guess why US is letting in so many illegals?"

Yes. The Uniparty wants them to vote in November.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Don't do drugs and post on PatNet at the same time.

@UkraineTotallyFucked

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1768579446221496773

TYSON FOODS HIRES ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WHILE LAYING OFF U.S WORKERS

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This will happen more often after the elections.

indc says

UkraineTotallyFucked

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1768579446221496773

TYSON FOODS HIRES ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WHILE LAYING OFF U.S WORKERS

So?

What does this have to do with BRICS and the bullshit thereof?

Nothing.

Same for real estate developers going bankrupt.

AD says

Okay just like what is happening now and I'll give credit to Biden as far as electronic manufacturing investments in the USA

What does that mean for standard of living or quality of life in the USA ?

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1768064540007404016
US re-industrialisation update: Samsung, LG, SK, all in the process of building semiconductors and battery factories in the US, "suspend US construction projects" amid labor and construction costs "rising at alarming pace".
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As you can see just because you bring back manufacturing with subsidies nothing will happen as long as labor costs are not managed.
And that cannot happen unless standard of living and quality of life are compromised.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

So?

What does this have to do with BRICS and the bullshit thereof?

Nothing.

Same for real estate developers going bankrupt.

I agree you cant see how it leads to de-dollarization with this limited information. But if you see the progression of these events it will lead to no more can-kicking and hence de-dollarization.

You agree that interest rates will not go down, in a way that will also lead to de-dollarization.

indc says

But if you see the progression of these events it will lead to no more can-kicking and hence de-dollarization.

No. It does not.indc says

You agree that interest rates will not go down, in a way that will also lead to de-dollarization.

Nope. The opposite. Demand for dollars will rise.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Nope. The opposite. Demand for dollars will rise.

You mean that if the 10 Year Treasury is paying at least 2% greater than the government-reported annual inflation such as PCE, then it will mean there will be more demand for "dollars" as in 10 Year Treasuries ?

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I remember from personal finance classes that you want to earn 4% plus annual inflation. So if annual inflation steadies at 3%, then you need to earn 7%.

This is based on premise you deduct around 3.5% a year as like an annuity and want your savings to appreciate at least at the rate of annual inflation.

Vanguard has a fund like Lifestrategy Conservative Growth Fund (60 bond/40 stocks) for this type of circumstance.

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AD says

.

I remember from personal finance classes that you want to earn 4% plus annual inflation. So if annual inflation steadies at 3%, then you need to earn 7%.

This is based on premise you deduct around 3.5% a year as like an annuity and want your savings to appreciate at least at the rate of annual inflation.

Vanguard has a fund like Lifestrategy Conservative Growth Fund (60 bond/40 stocks) for this type of circumstance.

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10 year Total rate of return on it is 4.68%. CPI increase has been 2.65% over the last 10 years. Puts the inflation adjusted @ about 2%, and that is with the stock market at an all time high. Better have it in an IRA or it sucks even more after taxes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx#performance-fees

There is no fire and forget strategy. No matter what the investment companies say, you gotta try to time the market.

If you would've dollar cost averaged either into or out of it, the total return figures are also lower.

Misc says

10 year Total rate of return on it is 4.68%. CPI increase has been 2.65% over the last 10 years. Puts the inflation adjusted about 2%, and that is with the stock market at an all time high. Better have it in an IRA or it sucks even more after taxes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx#performance-fees

Yes, because its bonds are essentially indexed to Vanguard's Total Bond Market ETF (ticker: BND), which obviously got its ass kicked when the Fed Funds rate went from 0.25% to 5.5% in about 12 months because inflation spiked to around 9%.

And since it apply a bond ladder strategy, the bond fund should recover after getting over the shock of inflation jumping that fast.

I would go back 25 years with this one. But its meant to be a safe way such as for a senior citizen to invest.

.

IMHO the best investment people could have made was refinancing their 30 year fixed rate mortgage at under a 3% rate.

That simple deal outperformed pretty much every money manager out there, and most people did that with a huge percentage of their net wealth. Timing is everything. That and being given the opportunity.

I can see why Gen Z is clutching at straws like crypto, they have very little to invest in. Lots to speculate on, but nothing to invest in. At least their student loan rates are at about 1.5%. Kids looking at college now...about 5.5% on their student loans with no increase in salary compared to previous generations.

So for those just starting out, I don't know how much of a difference between them and someone starting out in a BRICS country there is.

AD says

You mean that if the 10 Year Treasury is paying at least 2% greater than the government-reported annual inflation such as PCE, then it will mean there will be more demand for "dollars" as in 10 Year Treasuries ?

I mean when interest rates go up period. Not limited to just the interest paid on Ts.

Commercial bonds (not involving RE obviously), CDs, mortgages, car loans, state and local, etc. And interest paid on dollar denominated paper foreigners have amongst each other in the eurodollar arena especially.

The entire kitchen sink.

Why would India buy Venezuelan oil when Saudi oil is literally right next door?

Dollar Milkshake Theory gets a boost:



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/16/yen-drops-to-155-against-usd-currency-collapse-at-work-50-against-usd-since-2012-32-since-2021/

But...but the dollar is going to shit!

India has steadily increased its reliance on Russian oil.

According to Reuters: Through term deals and spot market purchases, the South Asian nation imported about 1.66 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2023 compared to an average 652,000 bpd in 2022.

Then also this: https://asia.nikkei.com/ › Economy › Trade › Indian-im...
Feb 20, 2024 — Russia was India's largest oil supplier in 2023, accounting for around 30% of imports. The monthly tally peaked at 1.99 million barrels in July.
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1 USD buys 83 Hindus.
Some year ago you could only buy 40 Hindus for $1.

Hindu has become cheaper and begging worldwide. Dollar is king and Hindu is slave.

Even few shekels can buy lot of Hindus to work in war zone. Hindu is desperate. Hindu money is worthless, no challenge to USD.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/17/1229525320/india-israel-hamas-war-jobs-migrant-workers

@UkraineIsTotallyFucked

Why do you think Trump is talking about De-dollarisation now?

indc says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked

Why do you think Trump is talking about De-dollarisation now?

Who cares?