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Debt


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2023 Mar 3, 5:38pm   11,340 views  161 comments

by GreaterNYCDude   ➕follow (2)   ignore (1)  

What are you guy's opinion on debt?

As interest rates rise, the math says that it's better if invest any spare cash rather than pay down debt, which is at a low fixed rate (house, student loan, small car loan). However, particularly with the mortgage, there is something to be said for the peace of mind of having it behind me and owning my home outright. I'm fully funding my 401(k), and have a six month emergency fund, but until now, any "free cash" beyond that, I've been diverting to the mortgage. As I sit right now, the goal is have it paid off in the next 5 to 7 years. With high yield savings paying about 4% right now, that's a 1% spread relative to my 3% mortgage.

As much as I could try to invest in the market 1) I'm not that good, and 2) the market has more or less peaked, and I don't see another major bull market given that we are seeing the end of the "everything bubble". Once I own the house free and clear, then I'll have plenty of "play money" to invest or whatever and hopefully catch the next upswing.

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123   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 26, 8:37am  

Another good example of "conservatives" being completely lost in their "principles": they are angry about government not allowing raw milk because government says "it's bad for you", but in the same breath they demand government to ban processed food containing certain ingridients because they say "it's bad for you".
124   mell   2024 Oct 26, 8:54am  

RWSGFY says

Another good example of "conservatives" being completely lost in their "principles": they are angry about government not allowing raw milk because government says "it's bad for you", but in the same breath they demand government to ban processed food containing certain ingridients because they say "it's bad for you".

Raw milk is fine as long as there's a warning on it that many raw products carry the risk of contamination with e. coli et all so people can make informed decisions. Personally I think neo it's worth the risk as it happens so rarely and the benefits outweigh the risk. However that's not the same as some body selling food containing poison harmful at any dosage and occasion, cumulatively. There has to be a threshold, sure colorant or artificial sweeteners again with warnings maybe should not be forbidden as long as studies don't clearly show its poisonous, but other clearly harmful substances should be forbidden). That's why you have a scientific process to determine the damage if any, which can always be adjusted or reversed on follow up studies showing a different outcome.
125   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 26, 9:12am  

So it boils down to what "the science" says? I vaguely remember "the science" say we must vaccinate with some safe and effective vaccine not long ago...

Don't ban/mandate things, just give people information and let them decide? But this is exactly how CC works: you know the interest rate, you know how much you'll pay overall. It's all there. And yet, "conservative" Cucker Tarlson is angry and demands change. 🤡
126   WookieMan   2024 Oct 26, 9:19am  

RWSGFY says

So now "conservatives" want the government meddling in people's finances, food they eat ... what's next? "Conservatives" clamoring for gubmint to make them vaccinate? I mean, if government know better at what rate I must borrow, it sure as shit knows what vaccine I should take, amirite?

Allowing poor to write off CC interest really isn't meddling in their affairs. People make mistakes. If allowing the poor to write off the interest on debt, the CC company still gets its money (profit/corporate taxes), but maybe it gets the poor out of food stamp land (savings) which is massively more expensive to everyone else that pays in.

People are stupid and make their own bed and sleep in it. But I don't want that to be at MY expense as someone that will pay $50-60k in federal taxes in 2025. If poorer people can write the interest off, it could lift maybe 500k people out of link cards and other government subsidies, section 8. And yes, some would spend more. But that's more corporate taxes.

It would be a policy that benefits everyone. It used to be that way 30-40 years ago. It sure as shit has potential to make at least a small dent in the deficit. I want less government, but there's ways we can reduce costs. Paying people to buy food is stupid. That's what link/food stamps is. If their net income hits a certain level, we don't have to pay for it as tax payers.

The stupid will keep spending and stay on link and the others will stop making me buy their groceries if they can write off some CC debt (interest). We'd gain more with link and section 8 in my scenario getting off the government budget. And it would be a political winner for whoever proposes it because the poor would think it's a win.
127   mell   2024 Oct 26, 9:22am  

RWSGFY says

So it boils down to what "the science" says? I vaguely remember "the science" say we must vaccinate with some safe and effective vaccine not long ago...

Don't ban/mandate things, just give people information and let them decide? But this is exactly how CC works: you know the interest rate, you know how much you'll pay overall. It's all there. And yet, "conservative" Cucker Tarlson is angry and demands change. 🤡

That was not science, they criminally withheld all the bad data and flat out lied. Zero to do with science. The fact that nobody has been prosecuted shows the bad state the US is in. Giving the information and letting people decide is fine, but that information has to come from science and math as well, otherwise people cannot make informed decisions.
128   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 26, 9:29am  

Writing off debt is already allowed. Cucker apparently wants government to cap the interest. These things don't work together without someone stepping in and compensating the loss from the artificially lowered rates with risks staying the same. And by someone we mean government, because who else. So basically he demands governmemt subsidies for "poor people". Which basically means further expansion of the wellfare state. Which is the epitomy of conservatism (sarcasm alert). 🤡
129   mell   2024 Oct 26, 9:49am  

RWSGFY says


Writing off debt is already allowed. Cucker apparently wants government to cap the interest. These things don't work together without someone stepping in and compensating the loss from the artificially lowered rates with risks staying the same. And by someone we mean government, because who else. So basically he demands governmemt subsidies for "poor people". Which basically means further expansion of the wellfare state. Which is the epitomy of conservatism (sarcasm alert). 🤡

This is not a monetary subsidy such as money printing and bank bailouts. It's impact could be to deny people credit who are too high risk which may not be a bad thing. The banks only loan out money at 20%+ currently because they get max revenues when the party is good and get bailed out when it's bad. I'm fine with free market credit rates IF we abolish the FED today and banks have to get money from other banks and savers at free market rates. AND let states enforce their own usury laws if they have em, so banks can and will decide where to do business. That's more Libertarian a la Stossel and not conservative (Tucker), although there is a small govt by any means conservative wing. Stossel is also more aligned with big ag food and letting consimers decide if they want to consume it.
131   HeadSet   2024 Nov 5, 3:36pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says





Yes, and those few women with paid off loans likely had payment help from hubby or daddy.
132   MolotovCocktail   2024 Nov 20, 3:10pm  

Never saw this movie. After watching this scene about debt, I will now:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Dpp4vhAxzLU
136   HeadSet   2025 Feb 11, 7:36am  

The_Deplorable says





This is very likely false. This may even have been put out by Dems since it is easily researched and makes Warren look like the victim of libel.
137   RWSGFY   2025 Feb 11, 7:54am  

HeadSet says

The_Deplorable says






This is very likely false. This may even have been put out by Dems since it is easily researched and makes Warren look like the victim of libel.


His handle should be changed to The_Gullible.
138   AD   2025 Feb 25, 12:24am  

From the Congressional Budget Office on 10 February 2025:

"The federal budget deficit totaled $838 billion in the first four months of fiscal year 2025, CBO estimates. That amount is $306 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year"

So what went down as this can't be due to increase in federal debt payments for a $306 billion increase in spending over 4 months (1 October 2024 to 1 February 2025) compared to the same period in last fiscal year ?

How much did Biden accelerate spending after the election and this relates to the statement about "throwing gold bars off the Titanic" as far as getting as much money to the Stacey Abrams non profits before Trump's inauguration ?

I hope more of this type of prudent leadership happens in Trump's admin: https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/administrator-zeldin-announces-billions-dollars-worth-gold-bars-have-been-located

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139   AD   2025 Mar 1, 12:15pm  

Interesting info on asset-backed debt (I.e., US Treasuries, mortgages, car loans, credit card debt, etc)

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/statistics/fixed-income-chart/

The above link shows around $4.6 trillion in 2024 of financed or issued US Treasuries.

I wonder if at least $2.7 trillion of that is refinanced debt such as the US Treasury refinancing short term debt to longer duration debt like 30 year Treasuries.

The below recent Wall St Journal article reminisces about the movie The Big Short in regards to mortgage backed securities

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/abs-crashed-the-economy-in-2008-now-theyre-back-and-bigger-than-ever-973d5d24

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141   clambo   2025 Mar 5, 3:44pm  

Re above: How about Israel?
142   AmericanKulak   2025 Mar 5, 3:50pm  

clambo says


Re above: How about Israel?

We didn't get $37T in debt from Israel. Not if we borrowed the few billion every year at 25% interest over decades.
143   AD   2025 Mar 5, 10:06pm  

AmericanKulak says

We didn't get $37T in debt from Israel. Not if we borrowed the few billion every year at 25% interest over decades.


Let's see by 4 July 2026 that the debt to GDP ratio is less than 107%, which was the ratio in 2019 and below 100% by January 2029.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

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146   AD   2025 Mar 24, 10:26am  

https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/national-news/us-could-default-on-debt-as-soon-as-july-analysis

(The Hill) – The federal government could default on its debt as soon as July, a new forecast from the Bipartisan Policy Center warns, raising pressure on Congress for action.

The prominent think tank forecasted on Monday that the so-called “X-Date” would likely arrive between mid-July and early October.

“Fiscal responsibility is not just about avoiding financial calamity time and time again—it’s about ensuring economic stability and paying our bills on time,” Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the think tank, said in a statement.
147   AD   2025 Apr 10, 12:18am  

The most US Treasuries that China has owned were around $1.3 trillion in 2011.

It has slowly reduced its holdings since 2011 and currently owns around $750 billion.
148   Patrick   2025 Apr 10, 12:31am  

So every American owes the Chinese around $2,000.
149   Misc   2025 Apr 10, 1:23am  

AD says

The most US Treasuries that China has owned were around $1.3 trillion in 2011.

It has slowly reduced its holdings since 2011 and currently owns around $750 billion.


China has continued to increase its holdings of Treasuries. It has kept them under the auspices of its SOEs. It holds them at a variety of institutions. China has deliberately clouded this issue.
150   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 15, 9:06am  

Patrick says

So every American owes the Chinese around $2,000.


Nope. The US government isn't 'every American'.

But we pay way more than 2k from hollowing out our manufacturing base.
151   AD   2025 May 14, 10:56am  

MolotovCocktail says

Patrick says


So every American owes the Chinese around $2,000.


Nope. The US government isn't 'every American'.

But we pay way more than 2k from hollowing out our manufacturing base.


Officially about $780 billion in US Treasuries is owned by China. About $8 trillion of $36 trillion is foreign owned.

I doubt the Chicoms own more than $800 billion in US Treasuries.

But the fact you brought up Chicom state owned industries or enterprises, reminds us how unfair trade is with China and why we have a $300 billion trade deficit with them.

I love reading stories about Steve Jobs mentioning that Apple products are built by Chicom workers who live in dormitories at the manufacturing plant. Might as well call it a barracks and not dormitory and make them wear Peoples Liberation Army uniforms.

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152   Fortwaye   2025 May 14, 1:52pm  

Debt is slavery
153   AD   2025 May 16, 6:12pm  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-loses-last-top-credit-221054398.html

US Loses Last Top Credit Rating With Downgrade From Moody’s
154   AD   2025 May 20, 2:52pm  



155   RWSGFY   2025 May 20, 5:43pm  

AD says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-loses-last-top-credit-221054398.html

US Loses Last Top Credit Rating With Downgrade From Moody’s



156   AD   2025 May 21, 11:29pm  

.

This author wrote in 2013 about debt : https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay13/genX5-13.html

He just wrote this insightful article which validates his 2013 article, and he's say there needs to be a means test for social security among other spending reforms:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/boomers-lets-face-it-math-doesnt-work

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157   The_Deplorable   2025 May 22, 9:16am  

AD says
"there needs to be a means test for social security among other spending reforms:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/boomers-lets-face-it-math-doesnt-work "

No because Social Security has been running a surplus for years! Years!
Social Security is our hard earned money for retirement - every single penny!
And if we remove the fraud from Social Security then that will make Social
Security more secure.
Social Security is rock solid.
158   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 25, 8:21am  


The government has a lot of debt but it has a lot of assets too:

•640 million acres of land (28% of America)
•$500B in gold reserves
•$1.8T in military equipment and bases
•300,000+ federal buildings (including national labs, NASA facilities, post offices)
•48,000 miles of interstate highways
•Massive mineral and energy resources (oil, gas, minerals, water rights)
•650M barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
•$1.6T in student loan debt owed to the government
•Air rights and wireless spectrum licenses
•Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stakes (~$150B net worth combined)
•Power generation assets like the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
•Ports, waterway infrastructure, and major federal transportation assets
•National parks and forests (economic and environmental value)

They would be hard to sell and liquidate, but they could definitely be leased, monetized, or privatized in part. Total estimated value: $25–50+ trillion.

https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1926451705845055530
159   AD   2025 May 26, 11:15am  

.

https://dailyhodl.com/2025/05/24/fed-quietly-buys-43600000000-in-us-treasuries-in-alleged-stealth-qe-operation-after-china-abruptly-dumps-billions-in-bonds/

China now holds $765.4 billion in US Treasuries and is in third place behind the UK and Japan, which hold $779 billion and $1.13 trillion, respectively.

Interesting that the Chicoms maximum holdings was around $1.3 trillion around 2014.

I look forward to the Wolfman at Wolf Street website to give an update on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

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160   Misc   2025 May 26, 12:10pm  

AD says

Interesting that the Chicoms maximum holdings was around $1.3 trillion around 2014


The Chinese hold some additional hundreds of Billions through their SOEs. They try to keep their total holdings quiet, but yep in the UK and Carribean Islands as well as HK.
161   AD   2025 May 26, 12:58pm  

Misc says

AD says


Interesting that the Chicoms maximum holdings was around $1.3 trillion around 2014


The Chinese hold some additional hundreds of Billions through their SOEs. They try to keep their total holdings quiet, but yep in the UK and Carribean Islands as well as HK.


Who knows as far as Chicom State Owned Industries (SOEs) other than the Chicoms themselves, but the amount of US Treasuries held by China has steadily decreased since 2014.

.

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