patrick.net

The question was about the “rate of inflation”.

Which can only be measured comparing one period of time to another across a broad range of consumer prices.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/consumer-prices-up-3-2-percent-from-july-2022-to-july-2023.htm

But the data is clear. Prices continue to rise.

PeopleUnited says

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/consumer-prices-up-3-2-percent-from-july-2022-to-july-2023.htm

But the data is clear. Prices continue to rise.

We are going to have to see by end of 2025 if annual inflation has steadied at no more than 3%. There was so much disruption and volatility with fiscal and monetary actions that it was going to cause this much of an economic stir from 2021 to 2025.

Biden should never have spent as much stimulus money ($2.4 trillion, compared to Trump's $2.3 trillion) and the Fed should have started to raised rates by late 2021. The economy was not at risk when Birdbrain Biden took over, so there was no reason for Birdbrain to spend that much.

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation. For my household, we invest some of our money in stocks as a way to keep up with inflation.

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Big_Johnson says

People without houses will suffer.
With higher rates market should crash but it isn't.

Yes, as there is no pressure to sell at a +20% decrease in the value or sales price of the house when peak prices were realized around early 2022.

There is still not enough supply to create a war between sellers, unlike the glut back in 2008-2011.

Look at the housing starts chart and you'll see why as there was not enough homes built after housing starts bottomed.

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ad says

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation.

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

GNL says

ad says

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation.

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

No need to wonder. The answer is NO for the majority. Yes for the lucky few.

GNL says

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

Si, senor.

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Read this: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/airbnb-bubble-popping-will-pop-housing-bubble

I am glad to see a free article on Zero Hedge about such an important housing topic.

They cover the housing data such as number of housing units versus the population size.

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Interesting as this article presents housing as an ownership crisis due to hoarding by the top 10% and corporations :

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug23/hoarding-housing8-23.html

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ad says

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Interesting as this article presents housing as an ownership crisis due to hoarding by the top 10% and corporations :

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug23/hoarding-housing8-23.html

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It's nonsense. We have a higher percentage of homeownership today than at any time in the past. The average Joe is doing quite well.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/639685/us-home-ownership-rate-by-race/
https://ncrc.org/60-black-homeownership-a-radical-goal-for-black-wealth-development/

Eman says

GNL says

ad says

The question is if median income and wage increases are keeping up with inflation.

Are you seriously wondering if wages are keeping up with inflation?

No need to wonder. The answer is NO for the majority. Yes for the lucky few.

This is what will naturally happen in our system of fiat and debt fueled economy.

Misc says

It's nonsense.

Misc and also Biggie J (Big Johnson): yes, overall home ownership is better than 1995 (the start of the effects of globalization and free trade)

reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NHWAHORUSQ156N

That is if the home ownership data is accurate.

For example, is the home ownership data based on total population including those who are not legal citizens ?

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Big_Johnson says

$5 for a sandwich? An avocado toast is $15.
As a millennial I don’t remember getting a good sandwich for $5. Was that 30years ago?

Before the COVID-19 scam our local bagel shop sold a chicken breast sandwich for less than $5. They now want almost $10.

RWSGFY says

Eh, this is feelz, not data.

Are you saying prices aren't going up? Or just looking for a peer reviewed study that verifies it?

GNL says

This is what will naturally happen in our system of fiat and debt fueled economy.

Yep, designed to help the biggest debtor or borrower, the US federal government.

$1 trillion borrowed in 2023 is only worth at most 97% of $1 trillion in 2024.

Inflate out of a debt crisis by instilling inflation (or hidden tax) on those who are most adversely impacted by inflation.

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Onvacation says

Before the COVID-19 scam our local bagel shop sold a chicken breast sandwich for less than $5. They now want almost $10.

I'm looking at chicken prices such as at the Walmart in the Florida panhandle and it was 99 cents per pound for chicken legs.

Now it is around $1.20 a pound, which is same price as mid 2022.

So figure for white meat for chicken , the price per pound has increased about 30% since early 2020.

All the other cost increases is attributable to the wage increases, electric utility cost increase, etc.

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Patrick says

We didn't? Securized subprime mortgages is still a thing?

Best way to track inflation is the price of gold bullion.

Also real estate 🏡

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Best way to track inflation

Yeah, also silver. Look at iShares Silver Trust

It was $14 in April 2006. It is now around $21. So it appreciated about 2.5% annually since April 2006. Inflation was about 2.5% to 3% annually since 2006.

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RWSGFY says

We didn't? Securized subprime mortgages is still a thing?

MUH subprime...
https://news.uga.edu/new-perspective-on-the-housing-crash/
Conklin’s team looked county by county at the percentage of loans issued to borrowers with credit scores under 660 across the U.S. between 2000 and 2006.
“We looked at the areas where house prices grew and the areas where the number of subprime mortgages grew,” Conklin said. “They’re not the same places at all. If subprime lending was the driver of the housing boom, well then you would think that where house prices rose, you would have seen the largest growth in subprime lending and that’s just not what we found.”
Subprime borrowers were more likely to take out loans to buy entry-level or moderately priced houses in the overheated market, he said.
“And the places where we saw prices rising quickly, that’s where we saw prime borrowers were a larger part of the market,” Conklin said. “[Well-qualified] borrowers were probably able to bid higher than people we would consider marginal borrowers.
“The marginal buyers were priced out of the market; they didn’t get a chance to help house prices blow up because the borrowers with better credit scores and better incomes could bid the highest prices.”

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class
Contrary to popular belief, which focuses on subprime and poor borrowers, we show that mortgage originations increased for borrowers across all income levels and FICO scores. The relation between mortgage growth and income growth at the individual level remained positive throughout the pre-2007 period. Finally, middle-income, high-income, and prime borrowers all sharply increased their share of delinquencies in the crisis. These results are consistent with a demand-side view, where homebuyers and lenders bought into increasing house values and borrowers defaulted after prices dropped.

Much had to do with adjustable rate mortgages. Once the Fed started raising rates, mortgage originators started coming out with negative amortization loans. When the rates went up further they came out with teaser rate loans that would adjust to current interest rates after a fixed period of time (the amount of time before the reset continuously decreased). The underwriters would qualify buyers for the teaser rate payment, even though the payment would double or triple in 3 months.

Flippers went all in.

richwicks says

Rubicon says

As a millennial I don’t remember getting a good sandwich for $5. Was that 30years ago?

20 years ago, you could get a decent grinder (sub, hoagie) for $5.

I remember Arby's 5 for $5 beef and cheese. You don't have to like the food, but for fast food that was a pretty good deal, but I think that was late 90's and phased out early 2000's. I'm a hard pass on Subway. It's just so bland for a sub. Jimmy Johns, Jersey Mikes and Firehouse are the chains around me that I'd pick over Subway 100% of the time. My old local butcher Josef's in Geneva hands down wins the Italian sub game. Best I've ever had or will have I think. Expensive though. Hell, I'll be in that area today. Might make that my dinner.

WookieMan says

Jimmy Johns, Jersey Mikes and Firehouse are the chains around me that I'd pick over Subway 100% of the time.

Wow, must be regional. I have found the Subways in Omaha and Virginia to be quite good. Jersey Mikes around here taste like Oscar Meyer on plain white bread. Jimmy Johns has horrible bread and bland meats, and Firehouse puts honey ham on an Italian sub.

Subway has meat that is a day from getting slimy and being tossed. It looks like shit, feels like shit, and has no taste.

When they first came out, Subway was amazing. Now it's like shitty old coldcuts you have to eat before the go bad tomorrow.

This began over a decade ago, and it's true up and down the East Coast. Subway was the first big franchise to really be nasty.

Except Jack Shit in the Box, they tried to open on the East Coast, but apparently their meats were defrosting en route, and a 600 people got food poisoning in the first month and at least one 4 died. Their store didn't last a few months in the NYC suburbs because their E.Coli scandal happened within days of them opening the first locations.

Edit: 4 kids died and of a syndrome related to E. Coli from Jack in the Box. And 600 sick . WOW!

EBGuy says

If subprime lending was the driver of the housing boom, well then you would think that where house prices rose, you would have seen the largest growth in subprime lending

I'm not sure that assumption is valid.

A Suckers Famous Last Words...
"This time is Different!"

Misc says

Much had to do with adjustable rate mortgages.

Will be interesting to see if this a factor given the extreme rate rise we just saw. Folks we know had to go this route due to self employment. They refinanced their California home to buy their Covid retreat. This, along with the $500k tax free on capital gains from a home sale, may push them to sell.

Eating out solo is like Russian Roulette. Eating out with family is even worse. Thank the fates (or God, whatever floats your boat) that I have a stay at home wife who cooks the most delicious foods for me and my son (I help as much as I can, especially during grill season).

Family is everything - that is why "they" are trying to destroy it.

That's so true, Big_Pretender. Everyone should buy no matter what. Rates and prices are never too high...buy, buy, buuuuuuyyyyy. Now!!

For the record, I think RE will remain out of reach for more and more people. Inventory will not be sufficient to change that for a long time.

GNL says

For the record, I think RE will remain out of reach for more and more people. Inventory will not be sufficient to change that for a long time.

Its not sustainable based on current statistics.



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Lower rates won't help.

GNL says

Lower rates won't help.

Keep rates and housing prices the same while annual income increases 3% a year for next 5 years. That would effectively lower the median home price from $440,000 to $374,000. Prices peaked around $490,000 so it would be about a 24% drop.

Peak prices were set around 4% rate for 30 year mortgage so a 6.5% rate would suffice based on a 10% drop for every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate.

ad says

GNL says

Lower rates won't help.

Keep rates and housing prices the same while annual income increases 3% a year for next 5 years. That would effectively lower the median home price from $440,000 to $374,000. Prices peaked around $490,000 so it would be about a 24% drop.

Peak prices were set around 4% rate for 30 year mortgage so a 6.5% rate would suffice based on a 10% drop for every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate.

Still depends on inventory.

GNL says

Still depends on inventory.

True. I wonder how many homes of the 142 million are vacation rentals or second-homes, and not occupied by full time residents.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/240267/number-of-housing-units-in-the-united-states/
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And I agree more homes need to be built. Government regulations including zoning and building code maybe are making homes like BMW and Mercedes prices instead of Chevrolet and Kia.

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ad says

Government regulations including zoning and building code maybe are making homes like BMW and Mercedes prices instead of Chevrolet and Kia.

@Eman has been saying this. In my area (I live less than 1 mile from the CIA headquarters in Langley) ANY new construction of ANY type whether it be SF, Town or Condo, has the most expensive features/fixtures building materials possible (it seems). Starter homes are not Taj Mahals but now even a 500 square foot new condo is $350,000 +condo fees of $300 - $1,000 per month. That is NOT a starter home.

Here's 1 bed with a den they always try to call a 2nd bedroom.
https://www.zillow.com/community/dylan-at-potomac-yard/2056162968_zpid/

$4,180/month and that doesn't include the condo fee and I'll bet there is no assigned parking either.

GNL says

Still depends on inventory.

And 2023 was the all time peak for people turning 65 and will be for the foreseeable future due to birth rates since then, AND taking immigration into account.

There will be much selling in the next 10 years that will NOT be delayable or voluntary.

Granddad will pass and Grandma will need (not want and thus can not delay) assisted living due to her inability to carry out enough Activities of Daily Living (ADL) to function. Kids live 5 states away and they or their siblings want the cash from a sale and don't want or can't rent it out with a reasonable return on time and attention or division.

Grandma Boomer's 3 bed, 2 bath in a 55+ HOA Community has to be sold. Either the HOA restricts Rents to over 55+ with no under 18s, and thus excludes the people who want it the most, it's 3 states away, property taxes suck, there are 3 children who can't make the rent worth it after property tax, upkeep, rental management fees, division among 3 people, etc. etc. AirBNBs banned by the neighborhood zoning/association/etc.

Not everybody is inheriting an SFBA ticky tack shack or Manhattan Condo. Most are getting a suburban or retirement community condo/house in a non-ultra hot area or with HOA/Condo Assoc restrictions in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, etc.

TL;DR: When Grandma breaks a hip and needs assisted living, there is no delaying the sale of a $3000/year property tax property that can't be rented or AirBNB'd efficiently due to HOA/Condo rules/Distance esp. if the revenue needs to be split among siblings.

Ironically, after decades of bitching Milly the Moocher will end up owning a 3 bed, 2 bath 1500 sq ft ranch an hour from Phoenix she can't use and is too big for her and her 3 cats. "Gee, all 7 of my boxed wines still can't fill the pantry!"

All the Peter Frampton Comes Alive! records can't stop the adult onset diabetes and failing knees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVN-2qoquyE



Boomers are not going to live forever and now the biggest birth year in US history (1957) now and in the foreseeable future has turned 65 (2023)

Rapidly approaching their fall-prone 70s. The life expectancy for Female Boomers, is 72 . The Male Life Expectancy (67) and the Broken Hip and Stroke moment comes, obviously, years before that.

I'm being full of black humor, but not wishing ill on anybody. I'm explaining why Demographics is Destiny, and this time will be different. There can be no decade-long rebalancing. Pucker factor, multiple issues, several of them insoluable due to intractability of age and wealth, are going to hit simultaneously

In ten years the problem won't be affordability, it'll probably be property taxes and forced cut services due to home value declines.

Assisted Living comes for us all.