patrick.net

https://palaceintrigue.substack.com/p/dont-cry-for-wall-street-tariffs

When the stock market goes up, the average American feels nothing. No wealth effect. No wage boost. No benefit. But when it crashes? Suddenly it's our problem. Suddenly we need bailouts. Socialism for the rich, capitalism for everyone else.

The stock market loves job cuts, offshoring of industry, union busting, automation, and stock buybacks over increased wages and R&D spending.

Why? Because these all boost short-term profits, which push stock prices higher. These people literally do not have the capacity to think further than 3 months ahead, and it’s been this way for nearly 50 years.

But all the things they love that make stonks go up in reality devastate the real economy — the economy where actual humans work, spend, and live.

The Fed and government have conditioned the market to expect free money every time there’s turbulence. ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), QE (quantitative easing), and the “Fed put” are all designed to protect asset prices, not people.

And every time there's a downturn, Wall Street screams: “Do something!” They don't mean create jobs. They mean: Protect my portfolio. Bail out my bag.

60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Household debt is at record highs. Millennials and Gen Z are screwed on housing, retirement, and savings.

The U.S. can’t build basic infrastructure without Chinese steel and imported semiconductors. But hey — Apple’s stock is up 5%! So everything must be fine, right?

So no — when the stock market dips because of tariffs or reshoring efforts, it’s not the economy suffering. It’s the parasite getting hungry because the host is finally fighting back.

HeadSet says

"Zero," really? Just paper loses and they will recover.

Tongue in Cheek. It's how I cope.

I am also losing my ass. Also not selling; considering selling my SGOV to raise cash for the inevitable bottom.

Oldie, but goodie:



Paging SpaceX. Elon, you heard the man.

Kaboom! Flying presidents everywhere.

what are our resident experts thinking? what to buy? timing will be likely important.

My portfolio is down by more than 1M, and with zero fucks given as long as my dividends keep coming.
I will probably buy more dividend paying stocks.

Zero fucks about the tarrifs as well. This is long overdue. We should have never allowed imports into our marketplace to this extent.

If I had new money coming in, I would be buying more capital appreciation stock mutual funds.

Of course, if you are over 60 years old, probably not, rather something like Vanguard Wellington.

My investments are down a shitload, but I can convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA I guess.

I concur with Booger.

S&P 500 is down 17.5% from its all time high. I wonder if the floor for at least the next few weeks is 20% below its all time high.

It will be interesting to see if the stock market stays down +15% for an extended period for time such as 6 months in regards to how inflation will fare.

I'm not sure it will matter for the working class cost of living such as with egg prices, rents, etc. I did read the Saudis plan on increasing oil production which will help with oil prices , which should help keep grocery prices down.

Maybe Trump is trying to get the 10 Year Treasury down to 3.5% or more before the US Treasury Department issues a large amount of bonds.

And then Trump may back off on his tariffs plan, which may mean the stock market bounces back.

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AD says

Trump may back off on his tariffs plan, which may mean the stock market bounces back.

I am expecting Trump to make deals, especially with Canada. Even if everyone else lifts their tarrifs and we do too, it probably isn't going to help much here because other countries probably still won't buy our stuff all that much. I expect the auto industry here to be protected and China to get screwed (because they deserve it).

Misc says

With as skeptical as most people on this site are, it amazes me that very few view the statements they receive from their financial institutions as the propaganda that they are.

The values being reported on the top 10%'s financial statements are still wildly out of Whack.

If you want to see how obscene some of the values are, take the company's market cap then divide it by the number of employees. - Then you get the full "Holy Fuck" effect.

AD says

&P 500 is down 17.5% from its all time high. I wonder if the floor for at least the next few weeks is 20% below its all time high.

I would normally say stocks are almost on sale, but even the correction P/E's are whack.

Gold went from ~250 in 2000 or so up to almost 3200. DJIA went from ~10K to 43K in the same time frame. S&P 500 from ~1500 to 5900. Granted, the stocks pay dividends which if reinvested via DRIPs can jack the yield, but pricewise, gold has been a 10 bagger over this time period, whereas stock prices as represented by indices are at best 5-baggers. Most of the gains in stock prices over the broader indices are the result of inflation, pure and simple, just like the gains in gold.

The Triffin Delimma will be resolved, and there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth for those who don't possess free and clear assets (assets wholly owned and not bought with debt).

you fellas here know a lot about stocks

Misc says

Misc says

With as skeptical as most people on this site are, it amazes me that very few view the statements they receive from their financial institutions as the propaganda that they are.

The values being reported on the top 10%'s financial statements are still wildly out of Whack.

If you want to see how obscene some of the values are, take the company's market cap then divide it by the number of employees. - Then you get the full "Holy Fuck" effect.

for kicks i did Apple. that’s one i own some stock in.

As of April 4, 2025, Apple's market capitalization was approximately $2.83 trillion, with a reported workforce of 164,000 full-time employees as of September 28, 2024. Dividing the market cap by the number of employees yields approximately $17.26 million per employee.

Eric Holder says

komputodo says

RWSGFY says

It's all Obama's fault!

Who's fault is it when a person loses in a casino?

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market

RWSGFY says

Oldie, but goodie:



Paging SpaceX. Elon, you heard the man.

Dow "Joans?"

Booger says

My portfolio is down by more than 1M,

That implies a portfolio of $15 million or higher. Nice. Were you one of those who bought Apple, Amazon, et all, back in the beginning?

HeadSet says

Booger says

My portfolio is down by more than 1M,

That implies a portfolio of $15 million or higher. Nice. Were you one of those who bought Apple, Amazon, et all, back in the beginning?

Or he's older or got a bunch of stock options as an employee early on.

WookieMan says

Or he's older or got a bunch of stock options as an employee early on.

Possibly, but he talks of buying "more dividend paying stocks" so he appears to be an investor.

stereotomy says

Triffin Delimma

Yes, and Trump is being coy as much as Putin is with the Ukraine War.

But the way Trump manages expectations, if US manufacturing jobs as a percentage of total jobs goes from currently 10% to 15% then he'll declare victory, besides showing a decrease in the trade deficit.

It's a tangible gain that he can take to the American public, just like showing the fiscal year 2025 deficit at or below the 2024 deficit which would be the first time the deficit did not increase since Bill Clinton's last year in office.

Trump first defines winning as being a noticeable improvement over Birdbrain Biden.

.

.

The S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.13% since 1957, but when adjusted for inflation, the real return drops to 6.37% as of December 2024.

The real return over the last 5 years has been 25%, so averaging about 4.5% real return per year since April 2020.

S&P 500 has averaged about 5% real return per year over the last 20 years.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

.

The corporate tax rate in 2005 was 35%, today its 21%.

That 5% real return per year over the last 20 years is a mirage. It is a gift from the government to the wealthiest people in the country via lowed taxes. This boosted the profits of the corporations.

Of course the government could always reduce corporate taxes further, thus increasing profits and share prices.

The guy who has seen his investments drop by $1 million doesn't need to have had $15 million dollars.

He could have $7 million or less and see this decline compared to the top value before stocks fell.

Misc says

That 5% real return per year over the last 20 years is a mirage.

Also share buybacks may be a part of this as well. Have to track net income and profit margin by year.

I look at Amazon and it continues to grow and its becoming more of a technology and entertainment company than an online retailer.

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clambo says

The guy who has seen his investments drop by $1 million doesn't need to have had $15 million dollars.

He could have $7 million or less and see this decline compared to the top value before stocks fell.

I thought he was talking about losing that $1million during the two days since the tariff took effect.

HeadSet says

clambo says

The guy who has seen his investments drop by $1 million doesn't need to have had $15 million dollars.

He could have $7 million or less and see this decline compared to the top value before stocks fell.

I thought he was talking about losing that $1million during the two days since the tariff took effect.

I think he meant from the ATH - Late November/ Early December of last year (looking at all three major indices).

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Oldie, but goodie:



Paging SpaceX. Elon, you heard the man.

Dow "Joans?"

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

What's interesting is that I'm pretty sure that Donald actually writes his stuff; I doubt a minion would write "Joans" instead of Jones.

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

This is why I hate memes and twitter/X shared images. It's 90% bull shit in my world.

The real return for the S&P 500 over the last 4 years is nearly 0%.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

S&P 500 futures show 4928 points.

At the current level of 5045 points, the S&P 500 is averaging about 8.5% annual appreciation since January 2020.

However inflation has been high from 2021 to 2023.

It has not been that spectacular of growth for Amzn and Googl over the last 5 years, its as if the COVID hyper-gains were wiped out.

And the last 25 years has been somewhat lackluster for the S&P 500 considering historically it is suppose to return around 11% a year

Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Eleven months ago I began pulling back and put one fifth of my portfolio into bonds (as announced on pat.net). It's crazy, but I feel about the only other person around here that even mentions BND is AD. At any rate, was perhaps a bit early. Started selling more indexes when the S&P 500 hit 5500 and then every 100 point rise from there on out. Made it to 40% cash & bonds. This is my last hurrah at attempting to time the market, so hopefully won't screw it up. Thinking about going 90/10 long term with total US market (VTI) and BND. Will probably dip my toe in the water if the market continues to tank. Contemplating some international indexes (VXUS), to help blunt the possibility of a lost decade in US indexes. At least with VXUS you get a 3+% dividend. Any other folks considering international indexes? Maybe something like a 70/20/10 split. Good night and good luck.

EBGuy says

Any other folks considering international indexes?

Congrats on getting the first half right. If I was you that 40% in cash and bonds would be in VTI before the end of trading today.

My current international is in SCHF and it's done no better than my SCHB. I won't be buying anymore international stock and may even sell what I have to buy US ETF's.

As an alternative I'm seriously considering EMLC which I've monitored for years but never purchased. It's a currency play - international junk bonds priced in local (to the bond) currency. I may be outsmarting myself with that one but in all the time I've watched it it's near it's lows price wise but pays a 6+% coupon. It's a bet against the dollar and I'm pretty sure Trump wants a weaker dollar.

I think no matter what I decide to do it will be catching a falling knife.

I always keep 3 years of expenses in cash but otherwise I'm pretty much fully invested so it means I have to sell in order to buy. It's easier to do nothing.

More panic selling this morning.

zzyzzx says

More panic selling this morning.

Oh well unless you're old. Even then you shouldn't have been in stocks if you're retired or you have FU money.

I still think it's an overreaction and it will run at some point this week. Factor in margin calls where stocks have to be sold to cover the loan. Once the dust settles and the highly leveraged people are forced to sell off I think it comes back up.

March 16th, 2020 at 9:47am

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

Could be. But there are lots of mentions of him saying that if market is tanking the POTUS is not doing his job right going back as far as 2012. Was his twatter history wiped out when he was banned in 2020 or not?

PS. Are we fact-checking shit now? What are we, demon rats?

komputodo says

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market...where is the PPT ( plunge protection team)?