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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,899 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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18   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Sep 22, 9:37pm  

Asshole down the street has a massive Kamala/Walz flag hanging from the porch along with a never before seen Stars and Stripes.

My neighborhood is almost split down the middle in voter registration. That remains the one and only pro Kamala anything. Here in So Cal.
19   Ceffer   2024 Sep 22, 9:50pm  

As might be expected, KamWalz signs going up, but not a yuge number so far. Two in my immediate hood, a handful in a 55 yo and over park next door where they should be old enough to know better. I did drive behind a car with a Trump sticker. I think putting out anything Trump is inviting property damage in Santa Cruz, not just signs being removed. Too many lesbos, people on the dole, section 8, etc. etc.
20   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Sep 22, 10:48pm  

RWSGFY says

I "akshually" saw my first Kummalala bumper sticker today.


You see Ukeys taking out the Death Star, too.
21   AD   2024 Sep 22, 11:04pm  

Biden won the popular vote by about 4.7%, and barely won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, and won by about less than 1.5% for Pennsylvania and less than 2.9% for Michigan.

See latest Real Clear Politics composite poll below. Notice that Biden and Clinton were way ahead on 21 September for their election years.


22   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Sep 23, 6:12am  

About a 2:1 or better Trump:Harris ratio in the San Antonio neighborhood I just moved into. More and more of each are popping up.
23   WookieMan   2024 Sep 23, 6:19am  

AD says

See latest Real Clear Politics composite poll below. Notice that Biden and Clinton were way ahead on 21 September for their election years.

No chance she wins WI. I wouldn't put a huge bet on it because of cheating, but I see no way she wins it. Trump wins MI and PA. So basically over with one or two of the three. Might or probably should win MN as well.

Even in rural IL there are still a lot of liberals/dems. Almost non-existent support for Harris. Walz was an awful choice which may cost MN. Wake the citizens up and be like "shit, we voted for this weirdo for governor." Harris is/will LOSE 5 points at least because of him in MN. You got the largest Somali population #muslim in the country. Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah issues ain't gonna be liked.

There's no path to victory for Harris. The margin of error is 4. Florida and Ohio shouldn't even be on the list anyway. He gets 3 of those she's toast. I see WI, PA, MI, AZ, NV, NC, GA all going Trump.

This is why we have the electoral college. I don't want CA policies in my area. The only reason most democrats are ever in play is CA, IL and NY. The rest don't have enough EC votes to really move the needle. Trump needs 2 of those state and it's over. Hence why they're trying to kill him.
25   RayAmerica   2024 Sep 23, 7:19am  

Do you believe that this election will be stolen by the Democrats?

Yes - 99%
No - 0%
Undecided - 1%

Do you believe that the Republicans will do anything significant to stop the steal?

Yes - 0%
No - 100%
26   HeadSet   2024 Sep 23, 8:25am  

WookieMan says

I see WI, PA, MI, AZ, NV, NC, GA all going Trump.

With everyone concentrating on those states to stop a steal, watch a totally unexpected cheat come in and unwatched Texas goes for Harris. Maybe another surprise like the known swing states are cheated for Harris, but New York negates that by voting for Trump.
27   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Sep 23, 8:37am  

RayAmerica says

Do you believe that this election will be stolen by the Democrats?

Yes - 99%
No - 0%
Undecided - 1%

Do you believe that the Republicans will do anything significant to stop the steal?

Yes - 0%
No - 100%


I hereby vote this to be the most accurate poll I have seen on this thread so far.

But then again, I am a certified cynical GenX ratbastard.
28   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Sep 23, 8:41am  

Apparently, the Amish is really pissed at the Dems. In PA, Gov. Shapiro sent goons to raid their farms for unprocessed milk.


32   zzyzzx   2024 Sep 27, 9:19am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says


Apparently, the Amish is really pissed at the Dems. In PA, Gov. Shapiro sent goons to raid their farms for unprocessed milk.





I hope they have busses and enough drivers to take Amish people to the polls. Also, I'm guessing pollsters aren't asking the Amish who they are voting for. They should turn this into a literal Trump Train. https://www.strasburgrailroad.com/
34   socal2   2024 Sep 30, 12:30pm  

Trump should be running away with this election based on the fundamentals and it should be well outside the range of the cheat.

I believe (hope) the polls are still undercounting support for Trump based on history and the Media's desire to suppress Republican enthusiasm.

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.
36   Ceffer   2024 Sep 30, 1:16pm  

How come there's not a column for the voting machines and drop off containers?
37   AmericanKulak   2024 Sep 30, 1:30pm  

Ceffer says

How come there's not a column for the voting machines and drop off containers?

@AD, hope all is well and no problems.
38   AD   2024 Sep 30, 2:59pm  

AmericanKulak says

AD, hope all is well and no problems.


I appreciate that

fortunately the track line of category 4 Hurricane Heline was about 120 miles east of here
39   HeadSet   2024 Sep 30, 6:17pm  

socal2 says

But if Trump manages to lose this thing, that will be on us for nominating a candidate that had unique and very high unfavorable ratings capable of losing to someone as weak as Kamala and Waltz.

No, it will be that the MAGA folks were unable to stop the steal. In an honest election, Trump wins in a landslide.
42   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 10:54am  

Again, NOT a fan of Polymarket. Americans can't legally bet there. Illegal alien voters and dead people certainly can not, either.

But here it is. Notice the huge delta between the two graphs.




44   WookieMan   2024 Oct 7, 5:12pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I'd have to dig the comment up. I beat JD. No one is ready for a female POTUS. A fake black one at that. That cackles at serious things. Didn't receive a single vote in this primary. Only got in because Biden ate shit at a national debate.

The money is going to be sunk into House and Senate seats. They have to cock block Trump. The know Kamala can't win. Women don't like her and men certainly don't. Unless they're gay which is only 2-3% of the population and most aren't actually gay. They just couldn't fuck a chick and gave up.
45   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 6:37pm  

WookieMan says

I'd have to dig the comment up.


What comment? The cat lady one that he got shit for from the Dems and a bunch of memes were posted about on PatNet?
46   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 6:39pm  

WookieMan says


No one is ready for a female POTUS


Not so much that. It's just that the female candidates so far have been awful candidates. Not a Maggie Thatcher amongst them. And yes, both so far have had those awful cackles.
47   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 7, 6:40pm  

WookieMan says

Women don't like her


Karen's do.
48   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 8, 10:45pm  

Over the past two weeks in my travels, it has been increasingly difficult to engage Democrats about the presidential race, much like a fan whose team has dropped a few playoff games and who is avoiding the sports page, they just don’t want to talk about it.

As one lifelong Democrat in Ohio who I did get to talk to put it, "I don’t know, she’s just kind of there."

It was only after that, that I started hearing Democrats uttering words that seemed unthinkable back in August, namely, "Maybe we should have stuck with Biden." Ouch.


https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/kamala-harriss-joy-quietly-turning-panic-democrats
52   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 15, 5:27pm  

Nate Silver is starting his usual turnaround now that he got a bunch of suckers to bet for Kamala on Polymarket.


53   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 15, 5:45pm  

Polymarket is starting to spread wider than Kamala's legs:


54   PeopleUnited   2024 Oct 16, 8:16am  

If less than 100,000 voters in swing states have more power than millions and millions of voters in other places, and if those 100,000 voters are idiots (aside: chances are many of them are) then we have reached the point in time where idiocracy the movie is reality. Idiots literally run our country.

55   HeadSet   2024 Oct 16, 11:15am  

PeopleUnited says

If less than 100,000 voters in swing states have more power than millions and millions of voters in other places

If that were true then the candidates would only campaign in those districts.
56   PeopleUnited   2024 Oct 16, 6:15pm  

They campaign nearly everywhere because if enough people stay home it might impact the winner and certainly will impact down ballot outcomes. But there are just a few swing districts on which the presidential race hinges, and idiot voters in those districts WILL show up and determine the outcome of the election.
57   AmericanKulak   2024 Oct 16, 6:46pm  

It is increasingly evident Kamala is meant to marshal only the delusional Democrat fringe, salvaging downticket races while sacrificing the presidency.

Obama gave this away when he "campaigned for Kamala"... but only in states where a downticket DNC incumbent was in danger.
https://x.com/RAZ0RFIST/status/1846725942565085215

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