3
0

Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


 invite response                
2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,354 views  187 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

« First        Comments 180 - 187 of 187        Search these comments

180   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 10:02pm  

AmericanKulak says


HeadSet says

Yes, men that have to work on a Tuesday need to find a time to fit in voting.

This is why voting should be on Saturday.

Welfare schlubs are gonna schlub no matter what day of the week it is. It makes it easier for men to vote.

Not hard to fit in time. Most polling places open at 6am in your local time zone. Wife and I are up at 4:30am almost every day. Lines will be non-existent if you get there early. I think in most states it's either a holiday now or your employer has to let you leave work to vote at minimum.

IL went the holiday route, but it used to be during Obama years here your employer had to allow you time to vote on the clock. It's the people that wait until the afternoon/evening that just turn around when they see the line.
181   AD   2024 Nov 4, 10:04pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.


For what its worth, the Real Clear Politics betting average is 57.7% for Trump

.
182   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 10:31pm  

AD says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Polymarket is bullshit. Ppl who bet aren't the ppl voting and you can even withdraw from a bet at anytime. What a crock.

For what its worth, the Real Clear Politics betting average is 57.7% for Trump

It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.

My one liberal neighbors and friends put out Obama, Clinton and Biden signs in the past. Nothing this year besides local/state races. I don't do signs because I'm a minimalist and they make my yard look like shit. But 2 Harris signs out of 800 homes in a purple county. I think we go red. Cook county (Chicago) fucks our entire state.
183   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 10:51pm  

WookieMan says


It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.


That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.
184   AD   2024 Nov 4, 11:01pm  

.

for what its worth, the 6 registered voters in this New Hampshire town voted at 12:01 am today (election day) and they split 3 for Trump and 3 for Harris

as a comparison, Biden got 5 out of 5 votes in 2020

in 2016, Hilary got 4, Trump got 2 , Gary Johnson got 1 and Mitt Romney got 1

and Ayote got 5 out of 6 votes for governor in November 2024 ; Ayote seems like a solid Republican candidate

https://www.wmur.com/article/midnight-voting-new-hampshire-election-results-24/62810457

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results

,
185   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 11:02pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

WookieMan says



It's an anecdotal poll essentially with gambling. I think it's more accurate than traditional polls. People see signs. People talk with neighbors.


That's not a poll. Americans can't even bet on Polymarket.

Yes they can. VPN. It's not 2000. 90% of the population didn't know about the existence of VPN. Much different now. I can "live" anywhere in the world. Especially younger guys that are more tech savvy. It's not hard to skirt around state and federal laws.

Either way Polymarket just shows you that guys are not voting for Harris in large numbers. Women generally don't gamble unless at a casino.
186   WookieMan   2024 Nov 4, 11:08pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

That's not a poll.

Tell that to someone that bets on the horses. The betting odds usually favor the best horse. That horse is Trump.

Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.
187   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 11:51pm  

WookieMan says


Tell that to someone that bets on the horses.


I will. Along with a justified barrage pissing over the crappy education they got.

Betting isn't a poll on horses any more than they are on voters. Period.

« First        Comments 180 - 187 of 187        Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste