3
0

Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


 invite response                
2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,919 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

« First        Comments 188 - 199 of 199        Search these comments

188   Tenpoundbass   2024 Nov 5, 5:21am  

WookieMan says

Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.


Horse owners rig their races to put their horses over for the biggest purse all the time.
If you pay attention to the racing forms, and follow the race results. There are subtle things they do that is legal but intentional to skew the results.
On the racing form, you'll see track heats the horse ran for the last weeks or months. If a horse is a favorite because of the way the horse has been running during training. You'll also see that the horse has been training with a certain Jockey during those laps. On race day the horse is a favorite, but on the day of the race the trainer or owner will replace that jockey with another jockey. Horses are partial to favorite Jockeys. The horse may not run as well. The team behind the horse does this, because the horse is a favorite paying out crappy odds. So they'll do this for a couple races, so fans don't think the horse is a good horse, even though his test runs makes him seem fast. Eventually the horse will stop being a favorite and more of a longshot. Then they'll put the horses favorite jockey on him and the horse will win. The purse for winning a race isn't always as big as the gambling proceeds they can win.

They do this with new horses that are up and coming. They will also do this with horses that were in the group of winners but not the winner of last years major racing cups. To bring them back down in stature. SO they can put them over to win on bets.

They also may over water them, or give them too much water to drink right before they race. That is what you should be looking for when betters are inspecting the horses at the paddock before the race. But most people are looking at the horse in their favorite color leggings, and blinders. They don't know what people are looking at or for.

Once the horse does win a major cup or race. They sell the horse to other racers, who will probably just race them and not monkey around with the elements that maximizes the most gambling wins, and are pushing the horse to win races for the glory of the photo ops and trophies. And of course the puny purse.
189   PeopleUnited   2024 Nov 5, 6:29am  

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

They were lined up before polls opened today. Got there 4 minutes early and there were already 70 people in front of me. Had to wait a bit but wasn’t bad. Turnout is likely to be huge if this is any evidence.
190   zzyzzx   2024 Nov 5, 6:54am  

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.


Last time I tried that, they opened late. As in voting time started and the place wasn't even open. I think it took them at least 25 minutes for them to show up and stuff.
191   WookieMan   2024 Nov 5, 7:25am  

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

Last time I tried that, they opened late. As in voting time started and the place wasn't even open. I think it took them at least 25 minutes for them to show up and stuff.

Aren't you in Baltimore? I'm in a town of 2,200 people and there was about 40 people at 5:55am. Cities are run like shit hence why I won't live in one again. Opening late is of concern for you. As in your vote being counted.
192   Patrick   2024 Nov 6, 11:07am  

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/euphoria-wednesday-november-6-2024


Trump defeated the Polls. For the last three weeks, the polls claimed Kamala Harris enjoyed a slight 1-3% lead over Trump, calling it “essentially neck and neck.” A couple of outlier polls from “respected” pollsters early this week even purported to show Kamala surging ahead.

The polls are a dead letter.

In another shift that may be a forever change, in contrast to the official polls, the layman’s betting markets correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race. The polls were, once again, badly wrong. The polls are pure propaganda.

Transparent betting markets offer disintermediated, direct access to voter’s pre-election preferences. The polls will never be the same after this.

For another delicious thought, imagine how many ecstatic conservatives will be counting the cash they won from disappointed democrats. The top pro-Trump better on Polymarket put up $29 million. Ouch.
193   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2024 Nov 6, 11:25am  

Fwiw Rasmussen had it right yet again as they did in 2016(and they weren’t far off in 2020)

What is true is the hoi poloi that didn’t already realize how corrupt the msm is now are fully aware. The msm lied incessantly running up to this election. Lied about who trump is, what he’s don’t and most of all lied about what he would do. No longer. Black(males), brown, white…..all are fully alert. And if they weren’t, last night they saw all the ugly leftist media faces in full ugliness all night long.

Norah O’’Donnell on CBS almost cried a few times and basically looked like she had taken an unwanted surprise back door entry all night long.

Former Fox ancho Chris Wallace on CNN is the biggest pile of turds ever…an absolute elitist who couldn’t relate to a blu collar worker if his life depended on it.

Fuck all of them.
194   Patrick   2024 Nov 7, 12:29pm  




Money on the line is a far better indicator of truth than the CIA/corporate media polls.
195   RC2006   2024 Nov 7, 12:35pm  

After looking at all the numbers for 2020 and 2024 Democrates agree that Trump won in 2020. Then they will say Trump can't win a third term from 2024 election.
197   Patrick   2024 Nov 29, 9:40am  

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump


Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?




Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

We should remember that Rasmussen was the most honest of them.
198   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Nov 29, 10:38am  

Patrick says

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump



Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?




Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.


The polls were bullshit?

Shocked!


199   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Nov 29, 12:01pm  

Patrick says

because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.


The last several years I've been thinking it's more to help COVER the cheating. "Nobody was cheating - this goes along with the polls!"

« First        Comments 188 - 199 of 199        Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste