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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,796 views  602 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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358   WookieMan   2025 Sep 2, 10:54am  

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

You probably shouldn't post anything. If you could teach retardation you're the professor.

Shocker. No troll response yet. You're a burden to this site. Take that as you will. It hurts new user sign ups and getting different content.
359   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 2, 12:58pm  

Glock-n-Load says


I only put Wookie on ignore. I can’t imagine he’s the only one who made a comment during those 7 days.


When he gets triggered by people who challenge his 'expertise', he goes on the warpath.

See? https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2203752
360   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 2, 12:59pm  

WookieMan says

WookieMan says


MolotovCocktail says



Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

You probably shouldn't post anything. If you could teach retardation you're the professor.


Shocker. No troll response yet. You're a burden to this site. Take that as you will. It hurts new user sign ups and getting different content.


Translation: You can't stand having your bullshit exposed for what it truly is.
362   AD   2025 Sep 2, 6:26pm  

MolotovCocktail says









.

There is no lack of nationwide inventory with 9.2 months of supply and rents going down in Panama City Beach where a 3 bedroom 2 car garage rents for $2000.

Still no new construction after RD Offutt cleared the land for its Hathaway Luxury Apartments (about a mile west of Hathaway Bridge) last year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

Maybe Trump going to offer vouchers to working class to help with rent or mortgage payments, which subsidizes the private equity firms that own apartments and single family homes.

Notice the default rate for multi-family mortgage backed securities is around 7% as recently reported by the Wolfman at Wolf Street website.

.
363   AD   2025 Sep 2, 7:51pm  

.

If this story becomes more commonplace think about the impact on housing prices (as well as rent prices) especially middle and upper class zip codes ?

what happens in San Fran Bay Area and Silicon Valley with a lot of layoffs and no foreign buyers ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-microsoft-worker-job-hunt-money-struggles-2025-9

Before he was fired last December, Mody Khan was earning a six-figure salary as a cloud solution architect at Microsoft. Nine months into his job search, he's at risk of losing his home.

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364   WookieMan   2025 Sep 2, 8:16pm  

WookieMan says

personal

edit this comment to get it re-moderated



Someone is butt hurt.
365   AD   2025 Sep 2, 9:12pm  

Another way Trump can act is not bail out the private equity firms that own apartments and houses, but to lower the lending standards like allow a large debt to income ratio for mortgagees, in addition to giving home purchase vouchers (or tax credits) to the working class.
366   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 2, 9:42pm  

Allowing large debt to income ratios to purchase housing will just lead more people who are absolutely shitty at managing money to be That much closer to impending foreclosure. Not a good thing to do for the people needing housing nor the communities it happens in. It will just enrich the FIRE economy that feeds on the churn….
367   SunnyvaleCA   2025 Sep 3, 1:56am  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

What creates affordability? When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

The Zestimate™ for 641 Castlewood Ln, Deerfield, IL 60015 is $665k now! Guess it's in a pretty good location.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/641-Castlewood-Ln-Deerfield-IL-60015/4912314_zpid/
368   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 4:04am  

SunnyvaleCA says

The Zestimate™ for 641 Castlewood Ln, Deerfield, IL 60015 is $665k now! Guess it's in a pretty good location.

Deerfield is a wealthy suburb north of Chicago. A lot of Jews and athletes with $$$$. Chicago Bulls had their training center there during the Jordan years, Berto Center. Metra train line with commuting hour rides of only 47 minutes which would take 2 hours driving most days to get downtown. Lake Forest just to the north has the Bears practice facility, but a lot of those guy and staff live in Deerfield because it's closer to the highway downtown, plus it's cheaper than Lake Forest.

Not as high as New York, but north Chicagoland suburbs has a boatload of Jews. This where the more blue collar lives or low level white collar people live. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20514/skokie-il/

Still close to the city. A two income home is affordable if going by the 3X income to price metric. If two people can make $60-70k each, owning is not out of reach at all at $350-400k.

The IL problem is that $350-400k home will probably hit you up for $9K roughly in property taxes annually. Nice thing is unless you need flood insurance, we have some of the cheapest rates for insurance. A hail storm and new roof is about 90% of the claims here. And for the one troll lately (not you Sunny), State Farm and All State headquarters are located here. I know plenty of employees and agents. I'm not making things up.
370   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 10:17am  

MolotovCocktail says




https://x.com/m3_melody/status/1963213700426338433

Cool. You trust a woman that looks like that?? For real? Then trust another random that name drops people no one knows. I think you're losing it dude. Show me, links, where this crash is coming? Hell even the hipster and coastal areas are not that bad. It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.
371   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 10:26am  

Surprised at the link to an image. I guess progress takes time. Still no proof besides a crazy looking chick that knows about nothing housing related. Lending is a business contract. Don't pay, you lose the house. Not complicated. No emotions.

And she's bat shit crazy that lenders won't do modifications. They will. They learned from 2008ish. Costs them more to foreclose instead of getting a payment every other month in the first 1-3 years. After that, foreclose. They got their amortized payment and at least broke even. The house would have to go down 20-30% for them to legit lose.
372   HeadSet   2025 Sep 3, 12:40pm  

WookieMan says

They learned from 2008ish. Costs them more to foreclose

A bigger issue than "cost to foreclose" is mark-to-market. In 2008, prices declined and turning a $450k loan asset into a $375k REO asset would mean less reserves and thus less ability to make future loans. If prices do not decline in today's market, and someone who bought 4 years ago and now defaults on a $450k balance on a home worth $475k (job loss or death of breadwinner), the bank will likely foreclose. It would seem that the bank would try loan modification like extend the term but increase the rate but still wind up with a lower payment. I have never seen that happen, though. It would also seem that when a bank does foreclose and acquires an REO, they would let a well-qualified buyer assume the loan. I never saw that, either.
373   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 1:21pm  

HeadSet says

It would seem that the bank would try loan modification like extend the term but increase the rate but still wind up with a lower payment. I have never seen that happen, though. It would also seem that when a bank does foreclose and acquires an REO, they would let a well-qualified buyer assume the loan. I never saw that, either.

Forbearance. Add months on. Way cheaper for the bank and they're able to label it as performing. So they can keep lending. Even then we're no where near the problems of 2006-08. Not even close.

I get what you're saying, but banks will approach it differently this time. I had to invoice banks on foreclosures for our services and we did short sales. They lost a shit ton of money more than they should have. Even if a semi crash is 1/10th as bad, it will be handled way differently. I know our resident troll will put his small brain to it, but I lived through it and made good money in real estate during those times. I know what I'm talking about.

Outside of a non-performing note an individual foreclosure on say a $300k house will cost $30-50k to the bank, wiping out years of interest payments. That's not including the non-payment of the loan for 12-24 months through the foreclosure process.
374   Glock-n-Load   2025 Sep 3, 5:25pm  

I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.
375   AD   2025 Sep 3, 5:40pm  

Glock-n-Load says

I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.


yep, at least going by what the "government" did around 2008 and having Zero Interest Rate Policy during Obama

like they said on CNBC around 2013 that 1/2 the gains of the stock market since 2008 was due to the Federal Reserve policies not because of productivity gains
376   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 6:40pm  

AD says

Glock-n-Load says
I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.

yep, at least going by what the "government" did around 2008 and having Zero Interest Rate Policy during Obama

I think we're just back to a normal market and rates in most places. Double digit increases are done. Some are struggling, but it's not that bad at all. I'm looking at 3-5% gains across my region. I won't say the regions doing bad as i don't want the troll to come out of his cave. You cats know FL. Not good, but also not bad really.

I'll just plant this here... Coastal. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/4841/galveston-tx/
378   GNL   2025 Sep 3, 7:52pm  

I do not believe we have a real economy. It is managed. TPTB look at numbers. They are only concerned about numbers. It is over my head and my thoughts and beliefs would make most people think I'm a conspiracy theorist. There is a ledger high up that controls, or controls as best it can, the economy.
379   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 3, 8:17pm  

WookieMan says

Cool. You trust a woman that looks like that?? For real? Then trust another random that name drops people no one knows


More than I trust your bullshit

Lay off the booze.
380   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 3, 8:18pm  

WookieMan says

It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.


So the Housing Expert of PatNet declares!

Where's your links?
381   PeopleUnited   2025 Sep 3, 8:26pm  

GNL says


TPTB look at numbers. They are only concerned about numbers.

The are concerned about control. They are power hungry, and under the spell of Satan. They will not rest until they have full control. They think they can become gods. They will lose in the end of course. But not before a culmination of efforts in taking control of the last thing every human has in their possession, free will. The final insult to humanity will be when people are forced to decide to live in the beast system where only those who enter the hive mind technocracy are allowed to buy or sell, and those who refuse are martyred for their refusal to take the mark of the beast.

Even so, don’t take the mark. Your free will is the most important gift God gave you. Choose Him and choose life, forsake Him and embrace destruction of your very eternal soul.
382   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 2:54am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.


So the Housing Expert of PatNet declares!

Where's your links?

Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.
383   AD   2025 Sep 4, 7:59am  

.

a return to the mean, which should be around 2 as far as number unemployed to number of job openings

this all plays into housing and rent prices

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA

.
384   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 8:59am  

AD says

.

a return to the mean, which should be around 2 as far as number unemployed to number of job openings

this all plays into housing and rent prices

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA

.

Thank you for the link.

I think income is the bigger factor though. A lot of people stopped working after the housing crash and then covid. Family formation stopped/stalled and you could get away with a full time breadwinner and a part timer in most cases and in most areas without kids which is common now.

Unemployment is a bad metric as it's going to be low as people stopped looking for work. A teacher and a part time bartender with no kids can make $120k per year pretty easily. Income is the biggest factor. 90% of people are not going to be able to afford a coastal CA home. You can correct me but I think FL is a demographic issue and insurance issue for home ownership. It's a service based economy with a lot of seniors and people on vacation that need service. Basically low wage jobs. FL housing prices should technically be higher besides the super popular beach areas.
385   HeadSet   2025 Sep 4, 7:44pm  

WookieMan says

A teacher and a part time bartender with no kids can make $120k per year pretty easily.

Sure, if she has an OF page to boot. Illinois median income for a teacher is about $56k.
386   AD   2025 Sep 4, 8:03pm  

WookieMan says

Unemployment is a bad metric


yes its one metric, boy

you have to be a systems thinker like Patrick is

so examine many metrics on your socioeconomic health dashboard such as unemployment to open jobs ratio and labor participation rate

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

.
387   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 4, 8:04pm  

WookieMan says

Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.


You said, "nobody is going broke"

Where's your links proving that?

Nowhere, yet you keep claiming otherwise.

This is where your bullshit problem arises.
388   WookieMan   2025 Sep 5, 2:55am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.

You said, "nobody is going broke"

This is a real estate thread. I posted links about housing prices. That's more than enough.

In my sphere no one is going broke. There's not a link for that. You know that too. I'm guessing you're surrounded by people that are not doing well. Sad for them. The world is not as bad as you want to think it is. At least the United States.

Click the links. I back my claims up when I can. My friends and family are doing just fine mostly outside of drama. Maybe don't surround yourself with weak people, if they exist?
389   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 8, 7:49pm  

WookieMan says


This is a real estate thread. I posted links about housing prices. That's more than enough.


You never posted links that prove your bullshit statement 'nobody is going broke'

WookieMan says


In my sphere no one is going broke


PROVE IT.

And 'nobody' isn't limited to 'in your [imaginary] sphere', whatever that magical bullshit means. You fucked up, not my problem.

WookieMan says


There's not a link for that. You know that too.


First you say you have links backing up the crap you dish out...now you admit that you don't.

WookieMan says


Click the links. I back my claims up when I can


Now you just flipped again! In the same comment!

Dude....


392   AD   2025 Sep 9, 10:15pm  

MolotovCocktail says

(0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag


yes since there should be a 10% change (either increase or decrease) for every 1% change (increase or decrease) for the 30 year mortgage

so discount it 40% in this example but then apply an adjustment factor of 0.8 since household income has increase 20% since early 2022

hence, it should be a 40% x 0.8 or 32% decrease in housing prices since early 2022

.
393   Misc   2025 Sep 9, 11:04pm  

The price of housing has another component. Since over 14% of the population of the US is now foreign born, the price of housing could have taken a permanent upturn as the number of people per dwelling has increase dramatically over the last 16 years or so. There's about 50 million foreign born people in the US today, and that's not including their offspring. Not only do these immigrants push up the price of rents and housing by having more wage earners per dwelling, but this has had an impact on the native households as well. Native households are now having their children stay with their parents far longer than historical norms. Also, the elderly are moving back in with their children to cut costs.

Additionally, there has been an ever expanding role of the government to "keep housing affordable". This involves some transfer of funds from the public to homebuyers. On average a State gives $10k towards first time home buyers. (Florida is right in the middle of the pack giving away $10k). On top of this, about 40% of new home buyers received financial aid for their purchase from their parents. Basically, the older and wiser generation don't want their offspring to get their starter house in the ghetto.

All of this has increased the cost of a house beyond the old rules of thumb.
394   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 9, 11:23pm  

AD says

household income has increase 20% since early 2022



395   WookieMan   2025 Sep 10, 7:20am  

Misc says

Basically, the older and wiser generation don't want their offspring to get their starter house in the ghetto.

I agree, but living and/or working in a ghetto is eye opening. Creates more conservative/libertarian voters. 25-30 years ago Wicker Park in Chicago was a shit hole. Double Door which I've played at closed and now is a Yuppie venue and neighborhood. https://www.doubledoor.com/ That's not the original building by the way.

I wouldn't live there now, but I miss the old grit. Progress is not always positive. You can still get shot there for no reason as well. 3% of me misses it sometimes, but I'm way better off in a rural area where I grew up. No homeless though, maybe some beggars and drugged out people.
396   GNL   2025 Sep 10, 7:42am  

There are some very successful real estate investors who show why housing will not go down. Basically, builders simply won't build unless/until prices support their profit goals. These builders have contracts and/or have large holdings of land. I think builders would have to go bust and/or jobs will have to disappear on a large scale for housing to take a dump.
397   AD   2025 Sep 10, 10:58am  

GNL says

There are some very successful real estate investors who show why housing will not go down. Basically, builders simply won't build unless/until prices support their profit goals. These builders have contracts and/or have large holdings of land. I think builders would have to go bust and/or jobs will have to disappear on a large scale for housing to take a dump.


yeah case in point RD Offutt cleared ground last year on the +250 unit luxury apartments called Hathaway Luxury Apartments and then stopped construction

I was told by a point of contact within the county's economic development alliance that multifamily housing starts wont commence again until rents start going up

.

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