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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,593 views  599 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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398   GNL   2025 Sep 10, 11:16am  

AD says

GNL says


There are some very successful real estate investors who show why housing will not go down. Basically, builders simply won't build unless/until prices support their profit goals. These builders have contracts and/or have large holdings of land. I think builders would have to go bust and/or jobs will have to disappear on a large scale for housing to take a dump.


yeah case in point RD Offutt cleared ground last year on the +250 unit luxury apartments called Hathaway Luxury Apartments and then stopped construction

I was told by a point of contact within the county's economic development alliance that multifamily housing starts wont commence again until rents start going up

.

This is why I say they have to go bust in order to change anything. What is the likelihood of that? Again, as I said above, government will simply bail any and all TBTF organizations out. It is a loooooooooooooooooong way from going down.
399   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 10, 11:10pm  

MolotovCocktail says







That’s just what the same $1,850 payment can afford, not realistic to what the house is worth. That’s excuse logic for those who haven’t saved/invested money to purchase a house to shout down a valuation.
400   AD   2025 Sep 10, 11:40pm  

ForcedTQ says

not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.
401   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 11, 6:56am  

AD says

ForcedTQ says


not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.

AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.
402   WookieMan   2025 Sep 11, 7:24am  

ForcedTQ says

AD says


ForcedTQ says



not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.


AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.

Depends where you are. Did they stop building for 15 years after the bust? I'm in a town with 800 homes and there will be 30 new ones this year that sold. First builds since the bust.

This is why I hate real estate topics. My area might be doing better and others get upset that theirs isn't (this is not directed at any user). I appreciate AD's comments because he keeps it to the area he knows and I'm somewhat familiar with that region. I know he's not a bull shitter. I'd love to tell you the town I live in, but it would be easy to dox me pretty quickly. PCB is a way larger area population wise. With 3 kids and the occasional whacko on the site, I'll just talk about life and not location details. I'm just from IL and housing is doing fine.
403   HeadSet   2025 Sep 11, 6:57pm  

ForcedTQ says

AD says


ForcedTQ says



not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.


AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.

Since houses are typically sold on a monthly payment, a 6.5% market full of $1850/mo buyers will find any house priced over $300k will stay unsold and new houses that would cost more than $300k will not be built.
404   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 11, 7:00pm  

HeadSet says


ForcedTQ says


AD says


ForcedTQ says


not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.


AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.


Since houses are typically sold on a monthly payment, a 6.5% market full of $1850/mo buyers will find any house priced over $300k will stay unsold and new houses that would cost more than $300k will not be built.



^^^ Classic 2nd order and 3rd order effects thinking applied. Eventually homes that stay unsold get sold one way or another. Or abandoned like Detroit and Future Detroit (SF Bay Area).
405   AD   2025 Sep 12, 1:55pm  

I was looking around and VA Mortgage rates (just like FHA) are around 5.8% which is inline with them typically being less than 0.5% than conventional rates.

Once the rate gets to 5.5% then sellers should offer to buy up to 4 discount points to lower the buyer's mortgage rate to 4.5% considering all time high prices were around a rate of 3% in 2022. Buying 4 discount points costs 4% of the mortgage but it is like lowering the home price 10%.
................................

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/11/economy/mortgage-rates-sept-11

"The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.35% for the week ending September 11, down from 6.50% last week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac."
406   mell   2025 Sep 12, 2:05pm  

They will keep going down somehwat in anticipation of rate cuts
407   Blue   2025 Sep 12, 3:56pm  

https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026/
The above link is not directly related to this thread.
But it gives a relatively what can be expected when the other big ticket item will go double digit rate hikes!
408   AD   2025 Sep 12, 8:28pm  

Blue says


https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026/
The above link is not directly related to this thread.
But it gives a relatively what can be expected when the other big ticket item will go double digit rate hikes!


Obama and his sycophants knew it would get so unsustainable that people would beg for a single payer system.

A lot of Democrats said this was a bridge or path to single payer system.

This is what they wanted ultimately as they already had the solution but it was too early to try to convince the public to accept it.

To paraphrase Rahm Emmanuel, never let a crisis go unexploited.

So healthcare insurance premium will eat into more household income and make less available for housing, which impacts housing as some will have to have roommates to help pay the rent or find cheaper rental properties.

.
409   mell   2025 Sep 12, 8:45pm  

Agreed, but the money is mostly with boomers and aging gen X ers on medicare
410   AD   2025 Sep 12, 9:00pm  

mell says

Agreed, but the money is mostly with boomers and aging gen X ers on medicare


Yeah, as far as health care industry has seen a boon with Baby Boomers since around 2005.

Just look at how Vanguard Healthcare Fund took off, and now that Baby Boomers are dying off, and the percentage of population on Medicare is decreasing then that may impact money spent on healthcare.

.
411   GNL   2025 Sep 13, 9:40am  

The best thing Americans can do to fight healthcare price abuse it to cancel all health insurances.
412   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 18, 1:10pm  




WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?

And what happens with this now?


413   AD   2025 Sep 18, 1:28pm  

MolotovCocktail says




WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?

And what happens with this now?





Once FHA and VA mortgages steady around 5.5% (and conventional mortgages around 6%) then timing is right to buy down 4 discount points to lower the mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.

Consider all time high prices were around early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%, and for every 1% increase in 30 year mortgage rate there is a 10% drop in price. But factor in or adjust for median household income has increased from early 2022 to present day about 20%.

.
414   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 18, 3:06pm  

AD says


median household income has increased from early 2022 to present day about 20%.


Hahahah. Sure it did.

AD says

then timing is right to buy down 4 discount points to lower the mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.


Let them eat cake, too!
415   Patrick   2025 Sep 18, 9:05pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Mortgage rates spike 15 basis points the day after the Fed cuts rates.
Feels like the Fed has lost control of the long-end of the yield curve.


I think that the market is saying that it expect that the cut will cause inflation and wants to be compensated now for that future inflation.
416   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 18, 9:38pm  

Patrick says

I think that the market is saying that it expect that the cut will cause inflation and wants to be compensated now for that future inflation.


Yup. And as Trump forces the Fed to cut rates more, what do you think will happen to mortgage rates as well?

Housing Experts of PatNet^^^^! Talking to you!
418   AD   2025 Sep 18, 11:17pm  

MolotovCocktail says




https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1mrGmBOyQANJy


.

Wow, so if that is a +30% drop in price assuming that $599K is all time high price.

But that makes sense based on the all time high price set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% and now it is at 6% as there is a 10% drop in price for every 1% increase in the mortgage rate.

But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.

.
419   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 19, 8:02am  

AD says

But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.


I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.
420   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Sep 19, 8:36am  

MolotovCocktail says

I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.

The car market is anticipating the Real Estate Market by a few quarters, IMHO.
421   AD   2025 Sep 19, 11:27am  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.


I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.


Even if median household income went up 15% to 20% since early 2022, there still may be large amount of households that do not live within their means and are careless with their finances even though they qualified for a car loan.

.
422   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 19, 6:57pm  

AD says

Even if median household income went up 15% to 20% since early 2022, there still may be large amount of households that do not live within their means and are careless with their finances even though they qualified for a car loan.


That too. But I am wondering if that data is skewed in someway. We know that most home sales are Boomers selling to Boomers, for example. Whereas, GenZ is not able to afford to buy no matter how responsible they are with their finances or not. They just mostly are so far down the scale such distinctions don't matter

Also, do insurance and property taxes get included in that affordable income range? Expenses for both are not the same for $500k house bought vs a $250k one. And it often not just 'half' - esp for the insurance, I bet.
423   AD   2025 Sep 19, 8:21pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Also, do insurance and property taxes get included in that affordable income range?


When we bought our townhome within 2 miles of the white sand beaches of the Florida panhandle the bank and mortgage provider told us we are buying a monthly payment of principal + interest + property insurance + property tax + HOA assessment

They took all that into account versus our income as far as calculating if we were qualified for the mortgage. I think they also look at assets as a mitigating factor, such as if you have a lot of assets, as well as credit history.
.
424   zzyzzx   2025 Sep 23, 5:16am  

The COVID-19-era FHA mortgage relief options will expire on September 30, 2025, with a new set of permanent loss mitigation options taking effect on October 1, 2025. This is not a broad foreclosure moratorium, but a scheduled sunset of specific pandemic-era programs.
425   GNL   2025 Sep 23, 10:19am  

How many mortgages will be effected?
426   SunnyvaleCA   2025 Sep 23, 10:44am  

AD says


Once the rate gets to 5.5% then sellers should offer to buy up to 4 discount points to lower the buyer's mortgage rate to 4.5% considering all time high prices were around a rate of 3% in 2022. Buying 4 discount points costs 4% of the mortgage but it is like lowering the home price 10%.

That might be a good sales tactic, but are points ever a good idea? I looked into it back when I was looking to refinance and it never seemed like a worthwhile idea. It seemed that the "payoff" from the lendee's side required the lendee to stay with the home for 10+ years and that the market rates stay high for at least that long. That's a lot of long-term commitment for a large up-front added cost.

I picture someone buying down the interest rate now and then winding up refinancing to "for free" in 5 years when the market rate dips to 4%, throwing out all the money they spent up front.

One thing that comes to mind, though, is playing the income-tax system. But this requires that the tax system remains the same for a long time. Right now a married couple can choose the SALT cap of $10k or standard deduction of $24k (married, filing jointly). so if you want to write off mortgage interest, you lose $14k right off the bat. So... pay huge points up front, write off that giant deduction in a few years (while suffering that $14k SALT difference); then, since you have low interest and therefore low interest writeup, take the $24k standard deduction in further years.
427   AD   2025 Sep 23, 1:05pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

That might be a good sales tactic, but are points ever a good idea?


This equates to lowering the price 4% (by buying 4 discount points) and offering a very attractive deal of lowering the buyers 30 yr mortgage rate from 6% to a very attractive rate of 5%.

Plus lower the price about 10% from all time high price set around 2022, and factor in about a 15% increase in median household income, this will be seen as a major incentive to a buyer.

It comes out of the sellers pocket, and yes the buyer can refinance when the 30 year mortgage rate drops to 4% or lower.

.
428   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Sep 23, 1:19pm  

Cars now, houses tomorrow! Prices are returning to normalcy.

The fundamental consideration is price, not rate. When a place is about half again as expensive as renting the same thing (plus carrying costs!) $200-$400/month off due to low rates is unimportant.

Why pay $2500 instead of $2800 when you can rent for $1800 and not be responsible for TIM (taxes, insurance, maintenance)?
429   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 23, 1:59pm  

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/23/the-14-bigger-cities-with-the-biggest-price-declines-of-single-family-homes-10-to-24-through-august/




Oakland, CA: -24%
Austin, TX: -24%
Cape Coral, FL: -19%
New Orleans, LA: -18%
San Francisco, CA: -16%
Birmingham, AL: -15%
Fort Myers, FL: -13%
Washington, DC: -12%
Sarasota, FL: -11%
Denver, CO: -10%
Portland, OR: -10%
Phoenix, AZ: -10%
Naples, FL: -10%
Hayward, CA: -10%

There are many other bigger cities where single-family home prices have declined but haven’t made the 10% cutoff, such as Los Angeles and San Diego (both -4% from the 2024 peak), San Antonio (-8%), Dallas (-6%), Fort Worth (-9%), San Jose (-5%), Atlanta (-5%), Memphis (-7%), Tampa (-6%), Seattle (-7%)…. Each monthly decline gets them closer to the double-digit zone.

In some other cities, prices of single-family homes have continued to rise or have flattened out.
432   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Sep 30, 11:22pm  

Cape Coral is in free fall.
433   Glock-n-Load   2025 Oct 1, 3:52am  

So, just the hipster areas? :)
434   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 1, 11:29am  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Cape Coral is in free fall.


But that's impossible!

The Housing Experts of PatNet...

Oh wait! That's coastal...and urban or at least suburban?...and a tad bit hipster, right?
435   HeadSet   2025 Oct 1, 11:50am  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Cape Coral is in free fall.

Would that be caused by the increase in monthly payment to cover higher insurance payments and increased HOA fees? The house price would have to decrease to keep the monthly payment the same as before.
437   Blue   2025 Oct 13, 8:38am  

@MolotovCocktail
15m boomers houses last for 3 out of 10 years supply at best if all are in good shape. I am not sure that it can pull down prices significantly down given the inflation rate is always higher.

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