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412
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 18, 1:10pm
WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?
And what happens with this now?
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 18, 1:10pm
WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?
And what happens with this now?
413
AD
2025 Sep 18, 1:28pm
AD
2025 Sep 18, 1:28pm
MolotovCocktail says
Once FHA and VA mortgages steady around 5.5% (and conventional mortgages around 6%) then timing is right to buy down 4 discount points to lower the mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.
Consider all time high prices were around early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%, and for every 1% increase in 30 year mortgage rate there is a 10% drop in price. But factor in or adjust for median household income has increased from early 2022 to present day about 20%.
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WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?
And what happens with this now?
Once FHA and VA mortgages steady around 5.5% (and conventional mortgages around 6%) then timing is right to buy down 4 discount points to lower the mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.
Consider all time high prices were around early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%, and for every 1% increase in 30 year mortgage rate there is a 10% drop in price. But factor in or adjust for median household income has increased from early 2022 to present day about 20%.
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415
Patrick
2025 Sep 18, 9:05pm
Patrick
2025 Sep 18, 9:05pm
MolotovCocktail says
I think that the market is saying that it expect that the cut will cause inflation and wants to be compensated now for that future inflation.
Mortgage rates spike 15 basis points the day after the Fed cuts rates.
Feels like the Fed has lost control of the long-end of the yield curve.
I think that the market is saying that it expect that the cut will cause inflation and wants to be compensated now for that future inflation.
416
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 18, 9:38pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 18, 9:38pm
Patrick says
Yup. And as Trump forces the Fed to cut rates more, what do you think will happen to mortgage rates as well?
Housing Experts of PatNet^^^^! Talking to you!
I think that the market is saying that it expect that the cut will cause inflation and wants to be compensated now for that future inflation.
Yup. And as Trump forces the Fed to cut rates more, what do you think will happen to mortgage rates as well?
Housing Experts of PatNet^^^^! Talking to you!
418
AD
2025 Sep 18, 11:17pm
AD
2025 Sep 18, 11:17pm
MolotovCocktail says
.
Wow, so if that is a +30% drop in price assuming that $599K is all time high price.
But that makes sense based on the all time high price set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% and now it is at 6% as there is a 10% drop in price for every 1% increase in the mortgage rate.
But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.
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https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1mrGmBOyQANJy
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Wow, so if that is a +30% drop in price assuming that $599K is all time high price.
But that makes sense based on the all time high price set in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% and now it is at 6% as there is a 10% drop in price for every 1% increase in the mortgage rate.
But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.
.
419
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 19, 8:02am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 19, 8:02am
AD says
I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.
But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.
I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.
420
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Sep 19, 8:36am
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Sep 19, 8:36am
MolotovCocktail says
The car market is anticipating the Real Estate Market by a few quarters, IMHO.
I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.
The car market is anticipating the Real Estate Market by a few quarters, IMHO.
421
AD
2025 Sep 19, 11:27am
AD
2025 Sep 19, 11:27am
MolotovCocktail says
Even if median household income went up 15% to 20% since early 2022, there still may be large amount of households that do not live within their means and are careless with their finances even though they qualified for a car loan.
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AD says
But Molotov Cocktail does not agree median household income has increased 20% or even 15% since early 2022 as far as applying to housing affordability analysis.
I find it highly unlikely. Else, car repos wouldn't at all time highs right now - just one example.
Even if median household income went up 15% to 20% since early 2022, there still may be large amount of households that do not live within their means and are careless with their finances even though they qualified for a car loan.
.
422
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 19, 6:57pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 19, 6:57pm
AD says
That too. But I am wondering if that data is skewed in someway. We know that most home sales are Boomers selling to Boomers, for example. Whereas, GenZ is not able to afford to buy no matter how responsible they are with their finances or not. They just mostly are so far down the scale such distinctions don't matter
Also, do insurance and property taxes get included in that affordable income range? Expenses for both are not the same for $500k house bought vs a $250k one. And it often not just 'half' - esp for the insurance, I bet.
Even if median household income went up 15% to 20% since early 2022, there still may be large amount of households that do not live within their means and are careless with their finances even though they qualified for a car loan.
That too. But I am wondering if that data is skewed in someway. We know that most home sales are Boomers selling to Boomers, for example. Whereas, GenZ is not able to afford to buy no matter how responsible they are with their finances or not. They just mostly are so far down the scale such distinctions don't matter
Also, do insurance and property taxes get included in that affordable income range? Expenses for both are not the same for $500k house bought vs a $250k one. And it often not just 'half' - esp for the insurance, I bet.
423
AD
2025 Sep 19, 8:21pm
AD
2025 Sep 19, 8:21pm
MolotovCocktail says
When we bought our townhome within 2 miles of the white sand beaches of the Florida panhandle the bank and mortgage provider told us we are buying a monthly payment of principal + interest + property insurance + property tax + HOA assessment
They took all that into account versus our income as far as calculating if we were qualified for the mortgage. I think they also look at assets as a mitigating factor, such as if you have a lot of assets, as well as credit history.
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Also, do insurance and property taxes get included in that affordable income range?
When we bought our townhome within 2 miles of the white sand beaches of the Florida panhandle the bank and mortgage provider told us we are buying a monthly payment of principal + interest + property insurance + property tax + HOA assessment
They took all that into account versus our income as far as calculating if we were qualified for the mortgage. I think they also look at assets as a mitigating factor, such as if you have a lot of assets, as well as credit history.
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424
zzyzzx
2025 Sep 23, 5:16am
zzyzzx
2025 Sep 23, 5:16am
The COVID-19-era FHA mortgage relief options will expire on September 30, 2025, with a new set of permanent loss mitigation options taking effect on October 1, 2025. This is not a broad foreclosure moratorium, but a scheduled sunset of specific pandemic-era programs.
426
SunnyvaleCA
2025 Sep 23, 10:44am
AD says
That might be a good sales tactic, but are points ever a good idea? I looked into it back when I was looking to refinance and it never seemed like a worthwhile idea. It seemed that the "payoff" from the lendee's side required the lendee to stay with the home for 10+ years and that the market rates stay high for at least that long. That's a lot of long-term commitment for a large up-front added cost.
I picture someone buying down the interest rate now and then winding up refinancing to "for free" in 5 years when the market rate dips to 4%, throwing out all the money they spent up front.
One thing that comes to mind, though, is playing the income-tax system. But this requires that the tax system remains the same for a long time. Right now a married couple can choose the SALT cap of $10k or standard deduction of $24k (married, filing jointly). so if you want to write off mortgage interest, you lose $14k right off the bat. So... pay huge points up front, write off that giant deduction in a few years (while suffering that $14k SALT difference); then, since you have low interest and therefore low interest writeup, take the $24k standard deduction in further years.
Once the rate gets to 5.5% then sellers should offer to buy up to 4 discount points to lower the buyer's mortgage rate to 4.5% considering all time high prices were around a rate of 3% in 2022. Buying 4 discount points costs 4% of the mortgage but it is like lowering the home price 10%.
That might be a good sales tactic, but are points ever a good idea? I looked into it back when I was looking to refinance and it never seemed like a worthwhile idea. It seemed that the "payoff" from the lendee's side required the lendee to stay with the home for 10+ years and that the market rates stay high for at least that long. That's a lot of long-term commitment for a large up-front added cost.
I picture someone buying down the interest rate now and then winding up refinancing to "for free" in 5 years when the market rate dips to 4%, throwing out all the money they spent up front.
One thing that comes to mind, though, is playing the income-tax system. But this requires that the tax system remains the same for a long time. Right now a married couple can choose the SALT cap of $10k or standard deduction of $24k (married, filing jointly). so if you want to write off mortgage interest, you lose $14k right off the bat. So... pay huge points up front, write off that giant deduction in a few years (while suffering that $14k SALT difference); then, since you have low interest and therefore low interest writeup, take the $24k standard deduction in further years.
427
AD
2025 Sep 23, 1:05pm
AD
2025 Sep 23, 1:05pm
SunnyvaleCA says
This equates to lowering the price 4% (by buying 4 discount points) and offering a very attractive deal of lowering the buyers 30 yr mortgage rate from 6% to a very attractive rate of 5%.
Plus lower the price about 10% from all time high price set around 2022, and factor in about a 15% increase in median household income, this will be seen as a major incentive to a buyer.
It comes out of the sellers pocket, and yes the buyer can refinance when the 30 year mortgage rate drops to 4% or lower.
.
That might be a good sales tactic, but are points ever a good idea?
This equates to lowering the price 4% (by buying 4 discount points) and offering a very attractive deal of lowering the buyers 30 yr mortgage rate from 6% to a very attractive rate of 5%.
Plus lower the price about 10% from all time high price set around 2022, and factor in about a 15% increase in median household income, this will be seen as a major incentive to a buyer.
It comes out of the sellers pocket, and yes the buyer can refinance when the 30 year mortgage rate drops to 4% or lower.
.
428
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Sep 23, 1:19pm
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Sep 23, 1:19pm
Cars now, houses tomorrow! Prices are returning to normalcy.
The fundamental consideration is price, not rate. When a place is about half again as expensive as renting the same thing (plus carrying costs!) $200-$400/month off due to low rates is unimportant.
Why pay $2500 instead of $2800 when you can rent for $1800 and not be responsible for TIM (taxes, insurance, maintenance)?
The fundamental consideration is price, not rate. When a place is about half again as expensive as renting the same thing (plus carrying costs!) $200-$400/month off due to low rates is unimportant.
Why pay $2500 instead of $2800 when you can rent for $1800 and not be responsible for TIM (taxes, insurance, maintenance)?
429
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 23, 1:59pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Sep 23, 1:59pm
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/23/the-14-bigger-cities-with-the-biggest-price-declines-of-single-family-homes-10-to-24-through-august/
Oakland, CA: -24%
Austin, TX: -24%
Cape Coral, FL: -19%
New Orleans, LA: -18%
San Francisco, CA: -16%
Birmingham, AL: -15%
Fort Myers, FL: -13%
Washington, DC: -12%
Sarasota, FL: -11%
Denver, CO: -10%
Portland, OR: -10%
Phoenix, AZ: -10%
Naples, FL: -10%
Hayward, CA: -10%
There are many other bigger cities where single-family home prices have declined but haven’t made the 10% cutoff, such as Los Angeles and San Diego (both -4% from the 2024 peak), San Antonio (-8%), Dallas (-6%), Fort Worth (-9%), San Jose (-5%), Atlanta (-5%), Memphis (-7%), Tampa (-6%), Seattle (-7%)…. Each monthly decline gets them closer to the double-digit zone.
In some other cities, prices of single-family homes have continued to rise or have flattened out.
434
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 1, 11:29am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 1, 11:29am
DemoralizerOfPanicans says
But that's impossible!
The Housing Experts of PatNet...
Oh wait! That's coastal...and urban or at least suburban?...and a tad bit hipster, right?
Cape Coral is in free fall.
But that's impossible!
The Housing Experts of PatNet...
Oh wait! That's coastal...and urban or at least suburban?...and a tad bit hipster, right?
435
HeadSet
2025 Oct 1, 11:50am
HeadSet
2025 Oct 1, 11:50am
DemoralizerOfPanicans says
Would that be caused by the increase in monthly payment to cover higher insurance payments and increased HOA fees? The house price would have to decrease to keep the monthly payment the same as before.
Cape Coral is in free fall.
Would that be caused by the increase in monthly payment to cover higher insurance payments and increased HOA fees? The house price would have to decrease to keep the monthly payment the same as before.
437
Blue
2025 Oct 13, 8:38am
@MolotovCocktail
15m boomers houses last for 3 out of 10 years supply at best if all are in good shape. I am not sure that it can pull down prices significantly down given the inflation rate is always higher.
15m boomers houses last for 3 out of 10 years supply at best if all are in good shape. I am not sure that it can pull down prices significantly down given the inflation rate is always higher.
438
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 13, 8:45am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 13, 8:45am
Blue says
MolotovCocktail
15m boomers houses last for 3 out of 10 years supply at best if all are in good shape. I am not sure that it can pull down prices significantly down given the inflation rate is always higher.
439
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Oct 13, 10:33am
DemoralizerOfPanicans
2025 Oct 13, 10:33am
MolotovCocktail says
YEP!
Just like demographics of the burst of Boomers INTO the housing market drove up prices in the 70s, they had been fairly flat for the 15 years previous.
YEP!
Just like demographics of the burst of Boomers INTO the housing market drove up prices in the 70s, they had been fairly flat for the 15 years previous.
442
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 13, 12:22pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 13, 12:22pm
DemoralizerOfPanicans says
MolotovCocktail says
YEP!
Just like demographics of the burst of Boomers INTO the housing market drove up prices in the 70s, they had been fairly flat for the 15 years previous.
444
Misc
2025 Oct 13, 1:17pm
In the US about 12% of the population owns 2 or more properties. In China it is about 25% of the population. So, if we simply get to the level the Chinese are at today, that absorbs all the excess property coming from the Boomers.
445
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 13, 1:26pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 Oct 13, 1:26pm
Misc says
You are being sarcastic, right?
In the US about 12% of the population owns 2 or more properties. In China it is about 25% of the population. So, if we simply get to the level the Chinese are at today, that absorbs all the excess property coming from the Boomers.
You are being sarcastic, right?
446
Misc
2025 Oct 13, 2:28pm
MolotovCocktail says
No, not sarcastic. The elites in America have really kept the boot down on regular Americans achieving affluence. The home ownership rate in the US is about 66% where in China it is about 90%, so that increase in the number of people having multiple properties equates more to second homes for the Chinese whereas in AMerica it usually means a rental unit.. Now you can talk about the quality of the housing unit, but here in the US over the last 15 years or so the number of occupants per dwelling has been surging. The media over the last 10 years has been promoting that Americans want "Smaller" homes and TPTB have forced homebuilders to comply through higher land prices, local building fees and interest rate policies.
There's plenty of the population to absorb the incoming properties if the elites allow it. They could of course increase prices some more to limit people's disposable income, increase property taxes some more or buy up the properties themselves and rent them back to the commoners. All of which the elites have done since the last Housing Bubble.
You are being sarcastic, right?
No, not sarcastic. The elites in America have really kept the boot down on regular Americans achieving affluence. The home ownership rate in the US is about 66% where in China it is about 90%, so that increase in the number of people having multiple properties equates more to second homes for the Chinese whereas in AMerica it usually means a rental unit.. Now you can talk about the quality of the housing unit, but here in the US over the last 15 years or so the number of occupants per dwelling has been surging. The media over the last 10 years has been promoting that Americans want "Smaller" homes and TPTB have forced homebuilders to comply through higher land prices, local building fees and interest rate policies.
There's plenty of the population to absorb the incoming properties if the elites allow it. They could of course increase prices some more to limit people's disposable income, increase property taxes some more or buy up the properties themselves and rent them back to the commoners. All of which the elites have done since the last Housing Bubble.
447
Misc
2025 Oct 13, 3:25pm
As a side note, in China there are over 100 car companies building cars. The elites in the US would lose their SHIT if something like that was tried in the US even compensating for population.
448
mell
2025 Oct 13, 3:29pm
Prices will hold in desirable areas but overall it's in a correction no doubt, but not a crash. Next 5 years will bring on avg. low single digit appreciation at best imo
449
RWSGFY
2025 Oct 13, 5:51pm
RWSGFY
2025 Oct 13, 5:51pm
Misc says
Been there, done that: the US used to have over 100 car companies at the dawn of the last century. But, unlike in China now, these weren't government-subsidized.
As a side note, in China there are over 100 car companies building cars. The elites in the US would lose their SHIT if something like that was tried in the US even compensating for population.
Been there, done that: the US used to have over 100 car companies at the dawn of the last century. But, unlike in China now, these weren't government-subsidized.
450
AD
2025 Oct 13, 6:10pm
AD
2025 Oct 13, 6:10pm
MolotovCocktail says
*************************************************************************************************
Yes, it is brand new and first listed in December 2024 for $416,500
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3382-Wood-Stork-Drive-Sw-Wilmington-LOT-37-Ocean-Isle-Beach-NC-28469/443112242_zpid/
.
*************************************************************************************************
Yes, it is brand new and first listed in December 2024 for $416,500
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3382-Wood-Stork-Drive-Sw-Wilmington-LOT-37-Ocean-Isle-Beach-NC-28469/443112242_zpid/
.
451
Misc
2025 Oct 13, 6:27pm
Looks like today's Zillow listing is $10k more than what was posted.
Buy now or be priced out forever ! ! !
Buy now or be priced out forever ! ! !
« First « Previous Comments 412 - 451 of 599 Next » Last » Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.