patrick.net

@DeficitHawk

California may be in the midst of an energy and debt crisis, but Governor Gavin Newsom continues to fight Washington on behalf of migrants. California’s Cash Assistance Program for Immigrants (CAPI) provides cash payments to migrants who are ineligible for Social Security.

You liberals are quite the self loathing bunch. Why do we have to pay them? In most of the history of immigration we didn't pay them at all. In fact, we vetted them and made them pass tests and speak English. I can only believe that you want America destroyed. This is why I say you are a dishonest person.

WookieMan says

Where does that come from mainly Mexico but also Canada.

Ultimately CHYna. China prefers soft methods to weaken enemies rather than a crush of heavy infantry. Long history of subverting, dividing, weakening opponents.

GNL says

You liberals are quite the self loathing bunch. Why do we have to pay them? In most of the history of immigration we didn't pay them at all. In fact, we vetted them and made them pass tests and speak English.

I do think Hawk is trying to be a decent liberal. We all aren't going to agree, but he's being decent about it. Give him a chance.

I'm in 100% agreement with you GNL, but at least hear the other side. Look at the Dem party. They didn't listen and are in shambles and are a wasteland right now. I think Hawk knows this and like Maher and the like are throwing out olive branch. I personally appreciate that even though we don't agree. Do not turn into a leftoid. That's the worst outcome.

Life is a give and take. Everyone here is wrong. Myself included. He's have a civil discussion about a topic. There's no trans bull shit with it. I think liberals like this can meet in the middle. Won't be perfect, but better than the current situation. I also believe legit liberals don't want to see this shit storm crumble their beliefs. They're at the cliffs edge.

Wookie, I just don't believe he's being honest. Several commenters have given every good reason for Trump to do what he wants to do for the American citizen. America is being overrun, used and robbed. I remember years ago, visiting friends in Myrtle Beach. The wife was a restaurant manager and she told me that every summer, she hires all foreign guest workers for the summer. That is fucked. Why? Why and who is allowing it? Fuck.

To say American kids won't work is bullshit. Kids need summer jobs badly. Your comments are 100% spot on.

I think @DeficitHawk is a Saboteur. Notice he has not condemned the political underhandedness that got us here. Maybe the Republicans are just as bad and have given lip service for decades. Remember the Dems talking about immigration and how it is out of hand? Well, at least they did a couple decades ago. Just spit balling here but I think the Dems and Reps are working together and don't really care who comes in as long as they can use it to their benefit somehow. And I see @DeficitHawk in the same light.

WookieMan says

I do think Hawk is trying to be a decent liberal. We all aren't going to agree, but he's being decent about it. Give him a chance.

This is, probably, the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me on this forum.

WookieMan says

Look at the Dem party. They didn't listen and are in shambles and are a wasteland right now. I think Hawk knows this and like Maher and the like are throwing out olive branch.

This is true. This is exactly my intention.

Dem party has a LOT of issues. While I complain about Trump and his divisive style (which I genuinely feel is true, and revolting)... the Dem party has its own form of division. Identity politics have replaced common sense with some sort of fractured tribalism... every group has to be identified as a group, and then the social justice for each group has to be debated.

You can tell from my posts above, that I am pro immigration. I like immigrants. I know many of them, have worked with many of them, and feel that they add to our community. I am pro "Multiculturalism" in that I am perfectly fine that my neighbors and co workers come from different cultural and ethnic backgrounds. I think its interesting to learn about their cultures, eat their foods, and celebrate their holidays. All of that is a plus for me and I welcome it. The key ingredient to me is 'common values'... rule of law, Constitutional freedoms, pay your taxes, be respectful, Meritocracy not Aristocracy, etc, and thats what I judge the people I interact based on. These are American values that I hold dear.

I am NOT in favor of "DEI policies" that take every group of people, divide them up into races, and whatever other divisions, and then apply race and gender based rules in some attempt to forcibly counteract every groups past inequities with new inequities... I don't like those policies, I dont think two wrongs make a right, and I dont like the tactic of dividing people against each other. I feel that the democratic party has lost itself in a swamp of such policies, and has lost sight of the most fundamental goal "Unify people through common American values, and ensure that all of us have social mobility on the basis of our efforts". That is to say I support equal opportunity and social mobility, but I don't support equal outcomes.

So when I talk about immigration, and I talk about "rule of law" being important to me, you will obviously say "Hey even if you like multiculturalism and immigration, Illegal immigration is not respecting rule of law"... and that is true. It is not fair for illegal immigrants to 'skip the line' while people who follow the rules didnt get to come. So what to do about that conundrum?

First, I am not talking about criminals and gang members, etc... I get it that Fox news bombards everyone with the message that they are ALL criminals and gang members... but thats just not my experience at all. I want the criminals and gang members removed and sent home, using legal and constitutional means.

I am now talking about people who broke the law in coming here... but otherwise are productive members of society and not engaging in crime. These people STILL represent an unfairness in that they skipped the line, and letting them stay requires accepting the morally frustrating fact that their action will ultimately benefit them even though they cheated. But I am more lenient towards these people than most conservatives.

Here is why:
I think our immigration policy (sheer numbers of legal immigrants) has been too low for a long time, and the illegals came to satisfy the economic demand that existed. People on both sides of the aisle allowed this to go on for many decades because they both benefited, and no 'legal' compromise could be reached. Just as skipping the line is immoral.... Knowingly allowing these people to come and not rectifying the situation for decades.... then suddenly taking the position of "Hey you cheated, get out" is equally immoral. Given the immorality of switching the standards after decades of "dont ask dont tell", I think a compromise is in order.

So to me, I'd let the illegal population be eligible to apply for a legal pathway. There can be a penalty for the original crime, because there was a crime. But encouraging the crime to go on for decades as a 'nudge nudge wink wink' and then suddenly applying the full force of law is not moral to me.

And to me, the quantity of people should be close to the quantity here today, give or take. I know many of you disagree on this point.

DeficitHawk says

It's just US born people don't choose to do it because there's better options for them.

This is the infinitely-repeated fallacious justification of "Americans won't work for the low wages that illegals will, therefore we need illegals."

No, we need higher wages for Americans, not wholesale betrayal of young Americans so that the rich can pay less for landscaping. Americans will do any job if paid enough.

Illegals drive down wages. That is their sole function. To harm low-income Americans for the benefit of high-income people who have no sense of responsibility to their fellow citizens, or sense of unity as Americans.

Patrick says

Illegals drive down wages. That is their sole function.

And drive up housing costs. It's no accident that housing costs exploded when they did. I'm starting to think their "value" to the "Economy" is rescuing landlords and asset holders from price declines/stagnation that would inevitably come with a softly dropping natural population. It's at least 30% of the reason, if not as much or more.

That mayor in Ohio immediately began snatching up old delapidated housing the moment he got tipped off that Haitans were on the way, and rents exploded 30%.

Which is self-healing, anyway - eventually housing becomes so economical that a barrier to household formation is completely breached.

True, I exaggerated.

Criminal aliens are also useful for driving up rents and the cost of a house for the benefit of landlords and current owners.

They are also useful for getting more Congressional representation in far-left extremist districts and for casting illegal votes for far-left extremist candidates.

Patrick says

Illegals drive down wages. That is their sole function

Both legal and illegal immigrants drive down wages. But that is not their sole function. They also enable us to sustain and grow the capacity of our industrial output, while constantly bringing a flow of "above average motivation" people who keep us more productive than we would be otherwise.

Who is this "us", kemosabe?

Sounds like your "us" does not include low-income Americans, who are directly harmed by the massive inflow of illegals.

Reminds me of a company I was at which "regretted" the mass layoffs they were imposing, but claimed that "We will be a stronger company for it."

DeficitHawk says

Both legal and illegal immigrants drive down wages. But that is not their sole function. They also enable us to sustain and grow the capacity of our industrial output, while constantly bringing a flow of "above average motivation" people who keep us more productive than we would be otherwise.

Pretty sure that most people would agree the standard of living has declined, not increased, due to wage busting, housing cost increasing immigrants. Especially those under 40-50.

We actually know now thanks to the NIST releases that the impetus for H1Bs and "Skilled Immigrants" wasn't a shortage, but a desire to cut salaries for American skilled workers.

We also know that there was never a shortage of STEM. The reason the best and brightest switch from Math and Engineering to Finance at MIT and elsewhere is because STEM wages have been pounded down. Engineers used to blow schoolteachers away, but when you factor in the latter often has a higher starting salary, far easier time at getting a job, tenure and almost total layoff protection without protracted intervening job searches or cross-country moving, and Executive level health and pension benefits plus far more time off and way less hours, why be an Engineer? Math and Science teachers are in high demand. Throw in a Spanish cert instead of cramming hard to pass tough upper level Engineering classes, and you can booze your way through school.

Patrick says

Americans will do any job if paid enough.

We will do any job if paid enough. But we can not do all of the jobs. There are not enough of us to do do all of the jobs.

Just raising wages wont fix the problem... I will move from Job A to Job B if job B increases the pay. And if Job A will increase the pay I will go back to Job A... and so on... but the whole time, only one of the jobs is getting done and the other one isn't getting done. That's just inflation, its not increased productivity. It doesn't help anything.

My bad, that's National Science Foundation, not NIST:

"A growing influx of foreign PhD's into U.S. labor markets will hold down the level of PhD salaries to the extent that foreign students are attracted to U.S. doctoral programs as a way of immigrating to the U.S."



-Photograph from the secret @NSF study that led to the H-1B.
https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1873283988804223195

This NSF study also whinged that Americans were happy using BS and MS degrees without going on to PhD (thus making PhD's "More expensive") because the pre-Invasion salaries were generous. Note that during this time we had a massive explosion in Telecom and Chip tech.

DeficitHawk says

We will do any job if paid enough. But we can not do all of the jobs. There are not enough of us to do do all of the jobs.

Nah. Corporate-Dem Propaganda. Like I said, prior to the 90s we were explosively innovating and had a greater share of the world's patents than we do today. Also, tons of foreign personnel are sending secrets back to China and India.

Back to housing for a second: How have immigrants helped affordable living costs in one Tech Heavy Area of the country? Is life as affordable today in SFBA as it was in the 70s, 80s? How is the traffic and quality of life?

If immigration is the key to success, why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese students and STEM personnel and vice versa?

Where is Modi and XI's H1B program for hundreds of thousands each year trying to poach each other's best and brightest?

The same Indians who proclaim that H1B is essential for America's success - though nothing in history suggests that - would chant "Death to MODI!" if he suggested bringing in 100k's Chinese or Bangladesh workers and students every year.

It's very much like Tariffs and NTTBs.
"Tariffs and Quotas are bad, America"
"Great, get rid of yours first"
"NoooOOOOooo"

AmericanKulak says

Pretty sure that most people would agree the standard of living has declined, not increased, due to wage busting, housing cost increasing immigrants. Especially those under 40-50.

You keep blaming immigrants for everything.. but fundamentally the problem is demographics. a pyramid shaped age distribution with many people working and few people retired is what brings those benefits. an inverted age distribution causes the pressures where you have to be taxed and pay for the retirees and work hard, but dont get the beneifts of housing, etc because they are occupied by non working retirees.

Not that i hate old people, and its not their fault... but its true. You are to ready to blame immigrants for the economic pressures we all feel instead of demographics.

Houses are expensive due to population, thats true. And while some of housing stock is occupied by immigrants cramming 5 families to a house, a lot of the population is also widows and widowers rattling around in large houses they bought 50 years ago. I dont hate them for this, its not their fault, but its true. There's like 10-15 million illegal immigrants. Estimates vary. They live multiple people and multiple families to one house. maybe 5 people or more per house. There are 60 million retired old people, most of whom live 1-2 people per house. So thats like 3 million houses occupied by illegal immigrants and 40 million houses occupied by retired old people.

I love my parents, I don't advocate to turn them into soylent green. But saying that immigrants are the reason housing costs are high, and the reason why living standards are going down is missing the true root cause. The true root cause demographics and its no ones fault.

DeficitHawk says

They live multiple people and multiple families to one house. maybe 5 people or more per house.

Wow, imagine how awful housing prices would be if they didn't.

Also, this is a great example of how immigrants PUSH natives to change. We like nuclear families in one house, not living extended. Why should privileged-to-be-here guests pressure us to change?

DeficitHawk says

So thats like 3 million houses occupied by illegal immigrants and 40 million houses occupied by retired old people.

No way. You're also not including all the H1Bs, Green Card Holders, etc. We saw videos of ICE taking away one illegal, and 3 of the 4 neighboring houses Rosita and Fernanda came out screaming. Also probably getting taxpayer money laundered via Catholic Charities, HIAC, etc. if not outright via the State.

In fact, much of the "Investment" is simply Patels buying a hotel from an American, firing half the staff, getting a tax break, and bringing their family over to run it. They literally added nothing TO the economy, and in fact destroyed jobs. When the tax break investor visa thing expires, they "Sell" the motel to Uncle Raj who gets a whole new investor visa and tax break.

We need a break from immigration.

AmericanKulak says

why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

DeficitHawk says

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

Also, much of the demographic issue was caused by the high cost of housing and artifically supressed wages by immigration policy.

AmericanKulak says

Also, this is a great example of how immigrants PUSH natives to change. We like nuclear families in one house, not living extended. Why should privileged-to-be-here guests pressure us to change?

You are missing my point.

No one has to change. But the presence or absence of illegal immigrants who dont consume much housing stock is not the main factor explaining why housing got expensive compared to generations ago. The demographics of our native population is the main factor. The abundance of retirees did not exist generations ago.

AmericanKulak says

Also, much of the demographic issue was caused by the high cost of housing and artifically supressed wages by immigration policy.

No, its the consequence of industrialization and urbanization, and has occurred in pretty much every industrialized country.

DeficitHawk says

No one has to change. But the presence or absence of illegal immigrants who dont consume much housing stock is not the main factor explaining why housing got expensive compared to generations ago. The demographics of our native population is the main factor. The abundance of retirees did not exist generations ago.

Absolutely incorrect. Our population exploded in the last 30 years, almost entirely driven by immigration.

It's rank ignorance to claim it doesn't effect housing prices, which skyrocketed at about the same time.

And it's not necessarily, not never. Correlation is the first place you should look and until it's been completely disproven after looking at multiple factors around it, THEN look for non-correlated causality.

AmericanKulak says

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

This is totally true. China has bad demographics, and will feel the pain of it soon. You are right. Their total population is in decline now just slightly. But the ratio of retirees to working people has been growing VERY fast.

China will suffer in coming decades due to its demographics, and it has not brought in enough immigration to avert its fate.

Ah, constant massive increases in population. Paradise awaits.

AmericanKulak says

Our population exploded in the last 30 years, almost entirely driven by immigration.

Population certainly matters. And so does how much housing stock is consumed per capita, which is tied to demographics. Both matter.

Immigrants consume less housing per capita, and also work to build new housing. Retirees consume a lot of housing per capita, and dont work to build new housing. If you are looking for an answer to the question "What changed vs 30 years ago to make it hard to buy a house"... you cant ignore the change in retired populations, and the proportion of housing consumed by them.

AmericanKulak says

Pretty sure that most people would agree the standard of living has declined, not increased, due to Illegals. Especially those under 40-50.

Under 30. Off by a decade. If you're 20 and can't get a $15-20/hr job which gets you a studio apartment you're screwed. Yes not luxurious but everyone needs a start.

I'm wealthy, my kids will want for nothing. 100 hispanics illegally here means you kids can't get a job. He then gets into drugs and the fentanyl pours in. This mainly is about young boys and men. We shouldn't be taking other countries outcasts. Take care of our own.

First argument:

DeficitHawk says

It's just US born people don't choose to do it because there's better options for them.

First argument failed, pivot to new argument:

DeficitHawk says

There are not enough of us to do do all of the jobs.

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

The low birth rate is driven by low wages and lack of cheap houses, both of which are driven by the flood of criminal aliens. Deport all the criminal aliens, and Americans will increase their birth rate.

Did I call it? He/she/zer is dishonest. He/she/zer would be much more honest if he/she/zer just came out and said he/she/zer is an anti White American.

AmericanKulak says

Ah, constant massive increases in population. Paradise awaits.

I dont know where this picture is taken, but Ive seen similar sights in downtown San Francisco lately.

Funny thing is, San Francisco population has been decreasing in recent years while these problems keep getting worse. those problems in San Francisco ARE related to the housing cost crisis, but the primary cause related to drug problems and untreated schizophrenia and other mental illness, and a political environment that tolerates it to go on. Building more housing stock alone wont fix those tent cities. But nevertheless, the housing cost crisis is very real, and it makes life hard for people who didn't buy houses 30 years ago.

Certainly increased population is one force pushing housing prices up. New construction to increase housing numbers pushes it down. People cramming in to share one space between many people pushes it down.

Low pay immigrants often live many to a unit, and then go build new houses for their day job. High pay (typically legal) immigrants and citizens typically live fewer people per housing unit. Some build housing stock as their day job, but many do other things. Retirees dont build housing stock, and live very few people per housing unit.

If you want to point fingers at who is driving up the cost of housing... its really not driven by the low pay immigrants who work in construction and cram a bunch of people into a house. They occupy relatively little housing per capita. Its driven by the high pay people and families who buy houses, and the retirees who own and occupy houses for a long time with just 1 or 2 people in the house.

Deporting the guys who are out there building the houses but not occupying them is not going to fix the housing cost crisis.

DeficitHawk says

Immigrants consume less housing per capita, and also work to build new housing. Retirees consume a lot of housing per capita, and dont work to build new housing. If you are looking for an answer to the question "What changed vs 30 years ago to make it hard to buy a house"... you cant ignore the change in retired populations, and the proportion of housing consumed by them.

"Boomer/Silents who were already in housing by the 90s (with the majority of both cohorts actually being homeowners already by 1990) caused housing prices to skyrocket in the late 90s.

But the Tens of Millions of Immigrants who arrived in numbers not seen since the Coolidge Administration starting also in the late 90s had little impact on housing prices"

Patrick says

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

There are more US Citizens today than 30, 50, 70 years ago. Yet we had no problem arming UK, USSR and ourselves simultaneously.

And in fact, that was back when we literally DID make everything from aluminium aircraft to olive drab socks and fleecing the wool for them to cigarettes and the tobacco and paper used in it.

Funny how we cannot only not build TVs anymore, but we also can't develop software or tech innovations whereas we did both not only with 30%+ less people, but with most women out of the workforce.

AmericanKulak says

Patrick says

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

There are more US Citizens today than 30, 50, 70 years ago. Yet we had no problem arming UK, USSR and ourselves simultaneously.

And in fact, that was back when we literally DID make everything from aluminium aircraft to olive drab socks and fleecing the wool for them to cigarettes and the tobacco and paper used in it.

Funny how we cannot only not build TVs anymore, but we also can't develop software or tech innovations whereas we did both not only with 30%+ less people, but with most women out of the workforce.

Yes, and why, exactly, is this? I'd say it's really because our government simply does not care. They use everything to their advantage to stay in the "group" (bribery) and because of greed. IMO.

America really was an amazing and blessed country.

DeficitHawk says

Patrick says

Illegals drive down wages. That is their sole function

Both legal and illegal immigrants drive down wages. But that is not their sole function. They also enable us to sustain and grow the capacity of our industrial output, while constantly bringing a flow of "above average motivation" people who keep us more productive than we would be otherwise.

Please get serious. Most gains in productivity comes from technology advances. We really need H1Bs? You’re not a serious person.

DeficitHawk says

AmericanKulak says

why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

Have you ever wondered why we have a demographic imbalance? Why? I’d wager feminism had a lot to do with it. And no fault divorce.

DeficitHawk says

AmericanKulak says

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

This is totally true. China has bad demographics, and will feel the pain of it soon. You are right. Their total population is in decline now just slightly. But the ratio of retirees to working people has been growing VERY fast.

China will suffer in coming decades due to its demographics, and it has not brought in enough immigration to avert its fate.

Holy shit, you admonished a commenter over immigration being the end all boogeyman yet it seems you say immigration is the great problem solution?

Patrick says

Reminds me of a company I was at which "regretted" the mass layoffs they were imposing, but claimed that "We will be a stronger company for it."

America needs to downsize, by removing all the illegal immigrants. And we will be stronger for it.

Patrick says

The low birth rate is driven by low wages and lack of cheap houses, both of which are driven by the flood of criminal aliens. Deport all the criminal aliens, and Americans will increase their birth rate.

There are many reasons the birth rate is low, women’s lib/more women working outside the home, abortion (65 million American babies killed by mothers and doctors since Roe), high cost of childcare, low value of children by working parents, divorce, low wages/declining benefits, increasing cost of healthcare while simultaneously companies eliminated most retirement plans/pensions forcing people to save more for retirement, lack of religion which tends to place high value on children... the list goes on.

But ultimately a society that values kids, rewards parents for being good parents. Our society rather rewards workers for being good slaves to their companies rather than good parents to their children. Illegal immigration is just one more way that America has said fuck the kids we prefer criminals who came here illegally over natural born kids from working class families. Everything wrong with America can be illustrated in the illegal immigration crisis. No respect to law, no value of loyal hard working Americans, no fair wages, no respect for life in the human trafficking and drug smuggling that is part of the illegal immigration programs sponsored by the government and the cartels. And lies abound, no one is taking responsibility, the the liberals feign to tell us that it is for our own good that housing is scarce, jobs are not paying well, crime and drugs in the streets. We can fix it all if we just “have a heart” and welcome more illegals.

Sorry we are not buying the bullshit. Sell crazy somewhere else, we’re all stocked up here.

DeficitHawk says

People cramming in to share one space between many people pushes it down.

What? No, just the opposite.

Lots of illegals cramming into one space drives prices up because they pay more with their combined illegal incomes than US citizens can.

If they were back in their home countries, those US citizens would not have that competition for housing.

Glock-n-Load says

We really need H1Bs? You’re not a serious person

In my area, H1B's probably drive housing cost a lot more than illegal immigrants. They are higher income and they buy houses. But if we send them away, then several industries around here would become non-competitive, and the industry itself would move overseas.

Yes, we need H1Bs if we want to keep a leadership role in technology industries.