patrick.net

DeficitHawk says

We will do any job if paid enough. But we can not do all of the jobs. There are not enough of us to do do all of the jobs.

Nah. Corporate-Dem Propaganda. Like I said, prior to the 90s we were explosively innovating and had a greater share of the world's patents than we do today. Also, tons of foreign personnel are sending secrets back to China and India.

Back to housing for a second: How have immigrants helped affordable living costs in one Tech Heavy Area of the country? Is life as affordable today in SFBA as it was in the 70s, 80s? How is the traffic and quality of life?

If immigration is the key to success, why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese students and STEM personnel and vice versa?

Where is Modi and XI's H1B program for hundreds of thousands each year trying to poach each other's best and brightest?

The same Indians who proclaim that H1B is essential for America's success - though nothing in history suggests that - would chant "Death to MODI!" if he suggested bringing in 100k's Chinese or Bangladesh workers and students every year.

It's very much like Tariffs and NTTBs.
"Tariffs and Quotas are bad, America"
"Great, get rid of yours first"
"NoooOOOOooo"

AmericanKulak says

Pretty sure that most people would agree the standard of living has declined, not increased, due to wage busting, housing cost increasing immigrants. Especially those under 40-50.

You keep blaming immigrants for everything.. but fundamentally the problem is demographics. a pyramid shaped age distribution with many people working and few people retired is what brings those benefits. an inverted age distribution causes the pressures where you have to be taxed and pay for the retirees and work hard, but dont get the beneifts of housing, etc because they are occupied by non working retirees.

Not that i hate old people, and its not their fault... but its true. You are to ready to blame immigrants for the economic pressures we all feel instead of demographics.

Houses are expensive due to population, thats true. And while some of housing stock is occupied by immigrants cramming 5 families to a house, a lot of the population is also widows and widowers rattling around in large houses they bought 50 years ago. I dont hate them for this, its not their fault, but its true. There's like 10-15 million illegal immigrants. Estimates vary. They live multiple people and multiple families to one house. maybe 5 people or more per house. There are 60 million retired old people, most of whom live 1-2 people per house. So thats like 3 million houses occupied by illegal immigrants and 40 million houses occupied by retired old people.

I love my parents, I don't advocate to turn them into soylent green. But saying that immigrants are the reason housing costs are high, and the reason why living standards are going down is missing the true root cause. The true root cause demographics and its no ones fault.

DeficitHawk says

They live multiple people and multiple families to one house. maybe 5 people or more per house.

Wow, imagine how awful housing prices would be if they didn't.

Also, this is a great example of how immigrants PUSH natives to change. We like nuclear families in one house, not living extended. Why should privileged-to-be-here guests pressure us to change?

DeficitHawk says

So thats like 3 million houses occupied by illegal immigrants and 40 million houses occupied by retired old people.

No way. You're also not including all the H1Bs, Green Card Holders, etc. We saw videos of ICE taking away one illegal, and 3 of the 4 neighboring houses Rosita and Fernanda came out screaming. Also probably getting taxpayer money laundered via Catholic Charities, HIAC, etc. if not outright via the State.

In fact, much of the "Investment" is simply Patels buying a hotel from an American, firing half the staff, getting a tax break, and bringing their family over to run it. They literally added nothing TO the economy, and in fact destroyed jobs. When the tax break investor visa thing expires, they "Sell" the motel to Uncle Raj who gets a whole new investor visa and tax break.

We need a break from immigration.

AmericanKulak says

why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

DeficitHawk says

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

Also, much of the demographic issue was caused by the high cost of housing and artifically supressed wages by immigration policy.

AmericanKulak says

Also, this is a great example of how immigrants PUSH natives to change. We like nuclear families in one house, not living extended. Why should privileged-to-be-here guests pressure us to change?

You are missing my point.

No one has to change. But the presence or absence of illegal immigrants who dont consume much housing stock is not the main factor explaining why housing got expensive compared to generations ago. The demographics of our native population is the main factor. The abundance of retirees did not exist generations ago.

AmericanKulak says

Also, much of the demographic issue was caused by the high cost of housing and artifically supressed wages by immigration policy.

No, its the consequence of industrialization and urbanization, and has occurred in pretty much every industrialized country.

DeficitHawk says

No one has to change. But the presence or absence of illegal immigrants who dont consume much housing stock is not the main factor explaining why housing got expensive compared to generations ago. The demographics of our native population is the main factor. The abundance of retirees did not exist generations ago.

Absolutely incorrect. Our population exploded in the last 30 years, almost entirely driven by immigration.

It's rank ignorance to claim it doesn't effect housing prices, which skyrocketed at about the same time.

And it's not necessarily, not never. Correlation is the first place you should look and until it's been completely disproven after looking at multiple factors around it, THEN look for non-correlated causality.

AmericanKulak says

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

This is totally true. China has bad demographics, and will feel the pain of it soon. You are right. Their total population is in decline now just slightly. But the ratio of retirees to working people has been growing VERY fast.

China will suffer in coming decades due to its demographics, and it has not brought in enough immigration to avert its fate.

Ah, constant massive increases in population. Paradise awaits.

AmericanKulak says

Our population exploded in the last 30 years, almost entirely driven by immigration.

Population certainly matters. And so does how much housing stock is consumed per capita, which is tied to demographics. Both matter.

Immigrants consume less housing per capita, and also work to build new housing. Retirees consume a lot of housing per capita, and dont work to build new housing. If you are looking for an answer to the question "What changed vs 30 years ago to make it hard to buy a house"... you cant ignore the change in retired populations, and the proportion of housing consumed by them.

AmericanKulak says

Pretty sure that most people would agree the standard of living has declined, not increased, due to Illegals. Especially those under 40-50.

Under 30. Off by a decade. If you're 20 and can't get a $15-20/hr job which gets you a studio apartment you're screwed. Yes not luxurious but everyone needs a start.

I'm wealthy, my kids will want for nothing. 100 hispanics illegally here means you kids can't get a job. He then gets into drugs and the fentanyl pours in. This mainly is about young boys and men. We shouldn't be taking other countries outcasts. Take care of our own.

First argument:

DeficitHawk says

It's just US born people don't choose to do it because there's better options for them.

First argument failed, pivot to new argument:

DeficitHawk says

There are not enough of us to do do all of the jobs.

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

The low birth rate is driven by low wages and lack of cheap houses, both of which are driven by the flood of criminal aliens. Deport all the criminal aliens, and Americans will increase their birth rate.

Did I call it? He/she/zer is dishonest. He/she/zer would be much more honest if he/she/zer just came out and said he/she/zer is an anti White American.

AmericanKulak says

Ah, constant massive increases in population. Paradise awaits.

I dont know where this picture is taken, but Ive seen similar sights in downtown San Francisco lately.

Funny thing is, San Francisco population has been decreasing in recent years while these problems keep getting worse. those problems in San Francisco ARE related to the housing cost crisis, but the primary cause related to drug problems and untreated schizophrenia and other mental illness, and a political environment that tolerates it to go on. Building more housing stock alone wont fix those tent cities. But nevertheless, the housing cost crisis is very real, and it makes life hard for people who didn't buy houses 30 years ago.

Certainly increased population is one force pushing housing prices up. New construction to increase housing numbers pushes it down. People cramming in to share one space between many people pushes it down.

Low pay immigrants often live many to a unit, and then go build new houses for their day job. High pay (typically legal) immigrants and citizens typically live fewer people per housing unit. Some build housing stock as their day job, but many do other things. Retirees dont build housing stock, and live very few people per housing unit.

If you want to point fingers at who is driving up the cost of housing... its really not driven by the low pay immigrants who work in construction and cram a bunch of people into a house. They occupy relatively little housing per capita. Its driven by the high pay people and families who buy houses, and the retirees who own and occupy houses for a long time with just 1 or 2 people in the house.

Deporting the guys who are out there building the houses but not occupying them is not going to fix the housing cost crisis.

DeficitHawk says

Immigrants consume less housing per capita, and also work to build new housing. Retirees consume a lot of housing per capita, and dont work to build new housing. If you are looking for an answer to the question "What changed vs 30 years ago to make it hard to buy a house"... you cant ignore the change in retired populations, and the proportion of housing consumed by them.

"Boomer/Silents who were already in housing by the 90s (with the majority of both cohorts actually being homeowners already by 1990) caused housing prices to skyrocket in the late 90s.

But the Tens of Millions of Immigrants who arrived in numbers not seen since the Coolidge Administration starting also in the late 90s had little impact on housing prices"

Patrick says

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

There are more US Citizens today than 30, 50, 70 years ago. Yet we had no problem arming UK, USSR and ourselves simultaneously.

And in fact, that was back when we literally DID make everything from aluminium aircraft to olive drab socks and fleecing the wool for them to cigarettes and the tobacco and paper used in it.

Funny how we cannot only not build TVs anymore, but we also can't develop software or tech innovations whereas we did both not only with 30%+ less people, but with most women out of the workforce.

AmericanKulak says

Patrick says

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

There are more US Citizens today than 30, 50, 70 years ago. Yet we had no problem arming UK, USSR and ourselves simultaneously.

And in fact, that was back when we literally DID make everything from aluminium aircraft to olive drab socks and fleecing the wool for them to cigarettes and the tobacco and paper used in it.

Funny how we cannot only not build TVs anymore, but we also can't develop software or tech innovations whereas we did both not only with 30%+ less people, but with most women out of the workforce.

Yes, and why, exactly, is this? I'd say it's really because our government simply does not care. They use everything to their advantage to stay in the "group" (bribery) and because of greed. IMO.

America really was an amazing and blessed country.

DeficitHawk says

Patrick says

Illegals drive down wages. That is their sole function

Both legal and illegal immigrants drive down wages. But that is not their sole function. They also enable us to sustain and grow the capacity of our industrial output, while constantly bringing a flow of "above average motivation" people who keep us more productive than we would be otherwise.

Please get serious. Most gains in productivity comes from technology advances. We really need H1Bs? You’re not a serious person.

DeficitHawk says

AmericanKulak says

why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

Have you ever wondered why we have a demographic imbalance? Why? I’d wager feminism had a lot to do with it. And no fault divorce.

DeficitHawk says

AmericanKulak says

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

This is totally true. China has bad demographics, and will feel the pain of it soon. You are right. Their total population is in decline now just slightly. But the ratio of retirees to working people has been growing VERY fast.

China will suffer in coming decades due to its demographics, and it has not brought in enough immigration to avert its fate.

Holy shit, you admonished a commenter over immigration being the end all boogeyman yet it seems you say immigration is the great problem solution?

Patrick says

Reminds me of a company I was at which "regretted" the mass layoffs they were imposing, but claimed that "We will be a stronger company for it."

America needs to downsize, by removing all the illegal immigrants. And we will be stronger for it.

Patrick says

The low birth rate is driven by low wages and lack of cheap houses, both of which are driven by the flood of criminal aliens. Deport all the criminal aliens, and Americans will increase their birth rate.

There are many reasons the birth rate is low, women’s lib/more women working outside the home, abortion (65 million American babies killed by mothers and doctors since Roe), high cost of childcare, low value of children by working parents, divorce, low wages/declining benefits, increasing cost of healthcare while simultaneously companies eliminated most retirement plans/pensions forcing people to save more for retirement, lack of religion which tends to place high value on children... the list goes on.

But ultimately a society that values kids, rewards parents for being good parents. Our society rather rewards workers for being good slaves to their companies rather than good parents to their children. Illegal immigration is just one more way that America has said fuck the kids we prefer criminals who came here illegally over natural born kids from working class families. Everything wrong with America can be illustrated in the illegal immigration crisis. No respect to law, no value of loyal hard working Americans, no fair wages, no respect for life in the human trafficking and drug smuggling that is part of the illegal immigration programs sponsored by the government and the cartels. And lies abound, no one is taking responsibility, the the liberals feign to tell us that it is for our own good that housing is scarce, jobs are not paying well, crime and drugs in the streets. We can fix it all if we just “have a heart” and welcome more illegals.

Sorry we are not buying the bullshit. Sell crazy somewhere else, we’re all stocked up here.

DeficitHawk says

People cramming in to share one space between many people pushes it down.

What? No, just the opposite.

Lots of illegals cramming into one space drives prices up because they pay more with their combined illegal incomes than US citizens can.

If they were back in their home countries, those US citizens would not have that competition for housing.

Glock-n-Load says

We really need H1Bs? You’re not a serious person

In my area, H1B's probably drive housing cost a lot more than illegal immigrants. They are higher income and they buy houses. But if we send them away, then several industries around here would become non-competitive, and the industry itself would move overseas.

Yes, we need H1Bs if we want to keep a leadership role in technology industries.

Patrick says

What? No, just the opposite.

Lots of illegals cramming into one space drives prices up because they pay more with their combined illegal incomes than US citizens can.

I mean per capita... people who cram into small space consume less housing per capita. People who live solo in a house occupy more housing per capita. So for a given population size, people who share housing have less impact than people who have their own.

Im saying 1 million illegal construction workers put less pressure on house prices than 1 million H1B holders or 1 million retirees.

DeficitHawk says

In my area, H1B's probably drive housing cost a lot more than illegal immigrants. They are higher income and they buy houses. But if we send them away, then several industries around here would become non-competitive, and the industry itself would move overseas.

US Tech actually created entirely new markets using almost entirely US Native born workers before.

Starlink and SpaceX basically refuse to hire Mainland Chinese for any sort of R&D or Production role, because they know how much the SEOs controlled by the CCP want to steal the tech: Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology and China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, as well as pass-throughs like CASIL Telecommunications Holdings Limited.

AmericanKulak says

US Tech actually created entirely new markets using almost entirely US Native born workers before.

Doesn't change the truth of what I said though.

AmericanKulak says

Starlink and SpaceX basically refuse to hire Mainland Chinese

yeah, thats defense critical work. Its reasonable to have requirements for citizenship for those companies.

DeficitHawk says

Doesn't change the truth of what I said though.

Sure it does. We created entirely new markets and produced for them and it's pretty clear 90%+ of them were native born.

The "We'll die without a huge number of foreign workers" is unalloyed malarky. We're not talking the odd genius who ALWAYS got a visa no problem, esp. if they had a University or Corporate sponsor.

DeficitHawk says

Yes, we need H1Bs if we want to keep a leadership role in technology industries.

That's the lie that Zuckerberg et al tell over and over, just like the "Americans don't want those jobs" lie. The truth is that the H1B program is just another way to stiff American workers by hiring compliant foreigners instead. The proof is that H1Bs are generally paid less than Americans for the same jobs:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/12/27/silicon-valleys-open-secret-h-1b-visa-workers-paid-10-less-than-american-counterparts/

H1B should be strictly limited to people who will get paid twice as much as the average American in the same job. If they're that good, they'll be worth it. Otherwise, it's just yet more bullshit designed to screw American workers to pay for the next yacht or private plane for the boss.

Even if H1B workers were paid the same as Americans, they would still be putting downward pressure on US salaries.

DeficitHawk says

I mean per capita... people who cram into small space consume less housing per capita.

Who cares?

The result is that illegal immigration drives up housing costs for Americans, especially the poorest Americans.

Patrick says

DeficitHawk says

I mean per capita... people who cram into small space consume less housing per capita.

Who cares?

The result is that illegal immigration drives up housing costs for Americans, especially the poorest Americans.

we all know this. but as long as some assholes make fortunes from fucking over America, it’ll continue.

Patrick says

The result is that illegal immigration drives up housing costs for Americans, especially the poorest Americans.

I think you are thinking short term... like "if there are less people tomorrow, there will be less demand for housing and prices will go down". But you are not thinking longer term.. like "If there are less people repairing and building new housing, the housing inventory will decrease, and the cost to replace it will increase".

I know that americans will take the job building houses if the jobs pay enough, but the americans would be quitting some other job (which currently pays more than construction) to take it... leaving that field understaffed and so on. That's been my whole point that you seem to refuse to hear.

I really believe there is a demographic shortage of people that makes it hard to fill all of the jobs we want filled without immigrants... so sending migrants home will just compound that problem. You want the native population to have more kids to supply the labor force?... ok... but theres two problems with that. One: They wont. Two: Even if they did that just recreates the same housing supply/demand situation as we have today, just with native born people instead of immigrants. How does it fix anything?

Maybe you want the Japan style population decline, with abandoned houses overgrown with weeds in rural towns while the remaining population moves to the cities to keep the factories running..

I just dont understand what you think will happen long term if we send all the immigrants away and leave ourselves with an inverted population pyramid.

DeficitHawk says

I just dont understand what you think will happen long term if we send all the immigrants away and leave ourselves with an inverted population pyramid.

Stop listening to Peter Ziehan. He's been massively wrong on many topics. He has a disdain for Trump. He really doesn't know anything if you listen enough. I feel like that's where you're getting some of your information. I listen to all sides and he's left leaning and talks out his ass 95% of the time.

You can physically know every country and every industry in in the world. That's what he claims. China is collapsing the the next decade. He said that a decade ago.... He dislikes Trump which is his right. But be careful to who you listen to.

Not solid on his take of something that's going to happen in the next 2 years. It's always a decade. He's a personality that hates Trump. Tread lightly when he speaks, it's mostly lies and he's wrong. Won't ever admit it.

Wow. Did somebody turn his buttplug 180 degrees? Was it something Trump said? Was there an agreement on Epstein vids?

No, we can see the Jesuit hand in the Episcopal Church. Follow the money.

DeficitHawk says

I really believe there is a demographic shortage of people that makes it hard to fill all of the jobs we want filled without immigrants

Workforce participation numbers suggest that there is no shortage of potential workers.