patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Also, much of the demographic issue was caused by the high cost of housing and artifically supressed wages by immigration policy.

No, its the consequence of industrialization and urbanization, and has occurred in pretty much every industrialized country.

DeficitHawk says

No one has to change. But the presence or absence of illegal immigrants who dont consume much housing stock is not the main factor explaining why housing got expensive compared to generations ago. The demographics of our native population is the main factor. The abundance of retirees did not exist generations ago.

Absolutely incorrect. Our population exploded in the last 30 years, almost entirely driven by immigration.

It's rank ignorance to claim it doesn't effect housing prices, which skyrocketed at about the same time.

And it's not necessarily, not never. Correlation is the first place you should look and until it's been completely disproven after looking at multiple factors around it, THEN look for non-correlated causality.

AmericanKulak says

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

This is totally true. China has bad demographics, and will feel the pain of it soon. You are right. Their total population is in decline now just slightly. But the ratio of retirees to working people has been growing VERY fast.

China will suffer in coming decades due to its demographics, and it has not brought in enough immigration to avert its fate.

Ah, constant massive increases in population. Paradise awaits.

AmericanKulak says

Our population exploded in the last 30 years, almost entirely driven by immigration.

Population certainly matters. And so does how much housing stock is consumed per capita, which is tied to demographics. Both matter.

Immigrants consume less housing per capita, and also work to build new housing. Retirees consume a lot of housing per capita, and dont work to build new housing. If you are looking for an answer to the question "What changed vs 30 years ago to make it hard to buy a house"... you cant ignore the change in retired populations, and the proportion of housing consumed by them.

AmericanKulak says

Pretty sure that most people would agree the standard of living has declined, not increased, due to Illegals. Especially those under 40-50.

Under 30. Off by a decade. If you're 20 and can't get a $15-20/hr job which gets you a studio apartment you're screwed. Yes not luxurious but everyone needs a start.

I'm wealthy, my kids will want for nothing. 100 hispanics illegally here means you kids can't get a job. He then gets into drugs and the fentanyl pours in. This mainly is about young boys and men. We shouldn't be taking other countries outcasts. Take care of our own.

First argument:

DeficitHawk says

It's just US born people don't choose to do it because there's better options for them.

First argument failed, pivot to new argument:

DeficitHawk says

There are not enough of us to do do all of the jobs.

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

The low birth rate is driven by low wages and lack of cheap houses, both of which are driven by the flood of criminal aliens. Deport all the criminal aliens, and Americans will increase their birth rate.

Did I call it? He/she/zer is dishonest. He/she/zer would be much more honest if he/she/zer just came out and said he/she/zer is an anti White American.

AmericanKulak says

Ah, constant massive increases in population. Paradise awaits.

I dont know where this picture is taken, but Ive seen similar sights in downtown San Francisco lately.

Funny thing is, San Francisco population has been decreasing in recent years while these problems keep getting worse. those problems in San Francisco ARE related to the housing cost crisis, but the primary cause related to drug problems and untreated schizophrenia and other mental illness, and a political environment that tolerates it to go on. Building more housing stock alone wont fix those tent cities. But nevertheless, the housing cost crisis is very real, and it makes life hard for people who didn't buy houses 30 years ago.

Certainly increased population is one force pushing housing prices up. New construction to increase housing numbers pushes it down. People cramming in to share one space between many people pushes it down.

Low pay immigrants often live many to a unit, and then go build new houses for their day job. High pay (typically legal) immigrants and citizens typically live fewer people per housing unit. Some build housing stock as their day job, but many do other things. Retirees dont build housing stock, and live very few people per housing unit.

If you want to point fingers at who is driving up the cost of housing... its really not driven by the low pay immigrants who work in construction and cram a bunch of people into a house. They occupy relatively little housing per capita. Its driven by the high pay people and families who buy houses, and the retirees who own and occupy houses for a long time with just 1 or 2 people in the house.

Deporting the guys who are out there building the houses but not occupying them is not going to fix the housing cost crisis.

DeficitHawk says

Immigrants consume less housing per capita, and also work to build new housing. Retirees consume a lot of housing per capita, and dont work to build new housing. If you are looking for an answer to the question "What changed vs 30 years ago to make it hard to buy a house"... you cant ignore the change in retired populations, and the proportion of housing consumed by them.

"Boomer/Silents who were already in housing by the 90s (with the majority of both cohorts actually being homeowners already by 1990) caused housing prices to skyrocket in the late 90s.

But the Tens of Millions of Immigrants who arrived in numbers not seen since the Coolidge Administration starting also in the late 90s had little impact on housing prices"

Patrick says

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

There are more US Citizens today than 30, 50, 70 years ago. Yet we had no problem arming UK, USSR and ourselves simultaneously.

And in fact, that was back when we literally DID make everything from aluminium aircraft to olive drab socks and fleecing the wool for them to cigarettes and the tobacco and paper used in it.

Funny how we cannot only not build TVs anymore, but we also can't develop software or tech innovations whereas we did both not only with 30%+ less people, but with most women out of the workforce.

AmericanKulak says

Patrick says

Equally bogus argument. There are plenty of US citizens.

There are more US Citizens today than 30, 50, 70 years ago. Yet we had no problem arming UK, USSR and ourselves simultaneously.

And in fact, that was back when we literally DID make everything from aluminium aircraft to olive drab socks and fleecing the wool for them to cigarettes and the tobacco and paper used in it.

Funny how we cannot only not build TVs anymore, but we also can't develop software or tech innovations whereas we did both not only with 30%+ less people, but with most women out of the workforce.

Yes, and why, exactly, is this? I'd say it's really because our government simply does not care. They use everything to their advantage to stay in the "group" (bribery) and because of greed. IMO.

America really was an amazing and blessed country.

DeficitHawk says

Patrick says

Illegals drive down wages. That is their sole function

Both legal and illegal immigrants drive down wages. But that is not their sole function. They also enable us to sustain and grow the capacity of our industrial output, while constantly bringing a flow of "above average motivation" people who keep us more productive than we would be otherwise.

Please get serious. Most gains in productivity comes from technology advances. We really need H1Bs? You’re not a serious person.

DeficitHawk says

AmericanKulak says

why aren't Indians importing 100k's of Mainland Chinese

Setting aside the reality that India and China hate each other.... India has a much more healthy demographic picture than we do. It has abundance of youth, and no boomer bulge. They dont have a demographic problem that they need to solve through immigration.

Have you ever wondered why we have a demographic imbalance? Why? I’d wager feminism had a lot to do with it. And no fault divorce.

DeficitHawk says

AmericanKulak says

China does not, in fact in 10 years China is going to have a far worse situation because 100M's of middle aged men will be expected to support their kids, wife, and parents all on one income. One-child policy; but with the repeal of it, the babies aren't coming.

This is totally true. China has bad demographics, and will feel the pain of it soon. You are right. Their total population is in decline now just slightly. But the ratio of retirees to working people has been growing VERY fast.

China will suffer in coming decades due to its demographics, and it has not brought in enough immigration to avert its fate.

Holy shit, you admonished a commenter over immigration being the end all boogeyman yet it seems you say immigration is the great problem solution?

Patrick says

Reminds me of a company I was at which "regretted" the mass layoffs they were imposing, but claimed that "We will be a stronger company for it."

America needs to downsize, by removing all the illegal immigrants. And we will be stronger for it.

Patrick says

The low birth rate is driven by low wages and lack of cheap houses, both of which are driven by the flood of criminal aliens. Deport all the criminal aliens, and Americans will increase their birth rate.

There are many reasons the birth rate is low, women’s lib/more women working outside the home, abortion (65 million American babies killed by mothers and doctors since Roe), high cost of childcare, low value of children by working parents, divorce, low wages/declining benefits, increasing cost of healthcare while simultaneously companies eliminated most retirement plans/pensions forcing people to save more for retirement, lack of religion which tends to place high value on children... the list goes on.

But ultimately a society that values kids, rewards parents for being good parents. Our society rather rewards workers for being good slaves to their companies rather than good parents to their children. Illegal immigration is just one more way that America has said fuck the kids we prefer criminals who came here illegally over natural born kids from working class families. Everything wrong with America can be illustrated in the illegal immigration crisis. No respect to law, no value of loyal hard working Americans, no fair wages, no respect for life in the human trafficking and drug smuggling that is part of the illegal immigration programs sponsored by the government and the cartels. And lies abound, no one is taking responsibility, the the liberals feign to tell us that it is for our own good that housing is scarce, jobs are not paying well, crime and drugs in the streets. We can fix it all if we just “have a heart” and welcome more illegals.

Sorry we are not buying the bullshit. Sell crazy somewhere else, we’re all stocked up here.

DeficitHawk says

People cramming in to share one space between many people pushes it down.

What? No, just the opposite.

Lots of illegals cramming into one space drives prices up because they pay more with their combined illegal incomes than US citizens can.

If they were back in their home countries, those US citizens would not have that competition for housing.

Glock-n-Load says

We really need H1Bs? You’re not a serious person

In my area, H1B's probably drive housing cost a lot more than illegal immigrants. They are higher income and they buy houses. But if we send them away, then several industries around here would become non-competitive, and the industry itself would move overseas.

Yes, we need H1Bs if we want to keep a leadership role in technology industries.

Patrick says

What? No, just the opposite.

Lots of illegals cramming into one space drives prices up because they pay more with their combined illegal incomes than US citizens can.

I mean per capita... people who cram into small space consume less housing per capita. People who live solo in a house occupy more housing per capita. So for a given population size, people who share housing have less impact than people who have their own.

Im saying 1 million illegal construction workers put less pressure on house prices than 1 million H1B holders or 1 million retirees.

DeficitHawk says

In my area, H1B's probably drive housing cost a lot more than illegal immigrants. They are higher income and they buy houses. But if we send them away, then several industries around here would become non-competitive, and the industry itself would move overseas.

US Tech actually created entirely new markets using almost entirely US Native born workers before.

Starlink and SpaceX basically refuse to hire Mainland Chinese for any sort of R&D or Production role, because they know how much the SEOs controlled by the CCP want to steal the tech: Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology and China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, as well as pass-throughs like CASIL Telecommunications Holdings Limited.

AmericanKulak says

US Tech actually created entirely new markets using almost entirely US Native born workers before.

Doesn't change the truth of what I said though.

AmericanKulak says

Starlink and SpaceX basically refuse to hire Mainland Chinese

yeah, thats defense critical work. Its reasonable to have requirements for citizenship for those companies.

DeficitHawk says

Doesn't change the truth of what I said though.

Sure it does. We created entirely new markets and produced for them and it's pretty clear 90%+ of them were native born.

The "We'll die without a huge number of foreign workers" is unalloyed malarky. We're not talking the odd genius who ALWAYS got a visa no problem, esp. if they had a University or Corporate sponsor.

DeficitHawk says

Yes, we need H1Bs if we want to keep a leadership role in technology industries.

That's the lie that Zuckerberg et al tell over and over, just like the "Americans don't want those jobs" lie. The truth is that the H1B program is just another way to stiff American workers by hiring compliant foreigners instead. The proof is that H1Bs are generally paid less than Americans for the same jobs:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/12/27/silicon-valleys-open-secret-h-1b-visa-workers-paid-10-less-than-american-counterparts/

H1B should be strictly limited to people who will get paid twice as much as the average American in the same job. If they're that good, they'll be worth it. Otherwise, it's just yet more bullshit designed to screw American workers to pay for the next yacht or private plane for the boss.

Even if H1B workers were paid the same as Americans, they would still be putting downward pressure on US salaries.

DeficitHawk says

I mean per capita... people who cram into small space consume less housing per capita.

Who cares?

The result is that illegal immigration drives up housing costs for Americans, especially the poorest Americans.

Patrick says

DeficitHawk says

I mean per capita... people who cram into small space consume less housing per capita.

Who cares?

The result is that illegal immigration drives up housing costs for Americans, especially the poorest Americans.

we all know this. but as long as some assholes make fortunes from fucking over America, it’ll continue.

Patrick says

The result is that illegal immigration drives up housing costs for Americans, especially the poorest Americans.

I think you are thinking short term... like "if there are less people tomorrow, there will be less demand for housing and prices will go down". But you are not thinking longer term.. like "If there are less people repairing and building new housing, the housing inventory will decrease, and the cost to replace it will increase".

I know that americans will take the job building houses if the jobs pay enough, but the americans would be quitting some other job (which currently pays more than construction) to take it... leaving that field understaffed and so on. That's been my whole point that you seem to refuse to hear.

I really believe there is a demographic shortage of people that makes it hard to fill all of the jobs we want filled without immigrants... so sending migrants home will just compound that problem. You want the native population to have more kids to supply the labor force?... ok... but theres two problems with that. One: They wont. Two: Even if they did that just recreates the same housing supply/demand situation as we have today, just with native born people instead of immigrants. How does it fix anything?

Maybe you want the Japan style population decline, with abandoned houses overgrown with weeds in rural towns while the remaining population moves to the cities to keep the factories running..

I just dont understand what you think will happen long term if we send all the immigrants away and leave ourselves with an inverted population pyramid.

DeficitHawk says

I just dont understand what you think will happen long term if we send all the immigrants away and leave ourselves with an inverted population pyramid.

Stop listening to Peter Ziehan. He's been massively wrong on many topics. He has a disdain for Trump. He really doesn't know anything if you listen enough. I feel like that's where you're getting some of your information. I listen to all sides and he's left leaning and talks out his ass 95% of the time.

You can physically know every country and every industry in in the world. That's what he claims. China is collapsing the the next decade. He said that a decade ago.... He dislikes Trump which is his right. But be careful to who you listen to.

Not solid on his take of something that's going to happen in the next 2 years. It's always a decade. He's a personality that hates Trump. Tread lightly when he speaks, it's mostly lies and he's wrong. Won't ever admit it.

Wow. Did somebody turn his buttplug 180 degrees? Was it something Trump said? Was there an agreement on Epstein vids?

No, we can see the Jesuit hand in the Episcopal Church. Follow the money.

DeficitHawk says

I really believe there is a demographic shortage of people that makes it hard to fill all of the jobs we want filled without immigrants

Workforce participation numbers suggest that there is no shortage of potential workers.

WookieMan says

Stop listening to Peter Ziehan. He's been massively wrong on many topics.

I have seen his podcasts. I agree he is a bit of a drama queen and always takes the most sensationalist extrapolation, which wont actually happen.

BUT, the fact that demographics really does affect the economic pressures of a country is really true. A country with a pyramid shaped demographics will have fundamentally different prospects and challenges than a country with an inverted pyramid.

My views on immigration are mostly informed by my work alongside many immigrants, and travels to other countries. Look at South Korea, which is a country who's population is declining and does not have a big immigration component. The young people I work with there are total workaholics with a stressful and unenjoyable quality of life. Those guys carry a heavy burden, they have to do all the work of a population that has fewer workers. You would think they have cheap houses because population is declining... but most of them move to urban centers which are still growing in density to find jobs. Its the rural areas that are getting depopulated. So even though their country's population is declining, they still have to contend with expensive housing, traffic, and all of the challenges of population density, along with extreme working hours, and their quality of life is not great.

I sometimes think the Silicon Valley work-life balance is unpleasant, and even inhuman... But its nothing to complain about compared to the South Koreans.

Similar thing has been happening in Japan for a long time. While population is declining, the urban areas themselves are growing and the rural areas are depopulating rapidly. There ARE cheap houses available in Japan... but they are in depopulated rural areas where only a few retired people live anymore, and the schools have closed down and there are no jobs. In fact, Japan has started to allow more immigration to get foreigners to occupy the abandoned rural houses.

Imagine if we snap our fingers and suddenly all the immigrants are gone from the USA. Wont we look forward to a future like Japan and South Korea? Workers have to work harder to support the retirees, urban centers continue to grow and densify while rural areas deplete, and people dont get the good quality of life they are being promised.

You guys all seem to think that if we stop immigration, and deport all the immigrants who are here... that somehow we will create a utopia where workers will get a greater share of the 'good life'... Good wages, cheap housing, no traffic, everything you can want.... but I think its a false promise and wont happen. We'll have labor shortage, yes high wages, but even higher costs. Fewer workers have to support more retirees either directly or through taxes and it will drain on their income. Urbanites will still suffer with expensive housing and traffic, and rural people will watch their towns decay to just a few grandmas and a bunch of empty rotting houses. Thats what happened in two countries I visit frequently who do NOT have much immigration.

I agree, our quality of life is suffering. We work harder and seem to get less of a share. Housing is super expensive, traffic sucks, and we have to work long hours to get by. I don't know the solution. I think blaming the immigrants is not the right answer, and removing them wont fix the problem.

zzyzzx says

Workforce participation numbers suggest that there is no shortage of potential workers.

Yes but those potential workers are 75 years old and retired. Workforce participation shows retirees are not working, which is normal and expected. The fraction of retirees is growing. The fastest growing segment of the population is >75 years old. That's what I've been trying to say over and over. That's our core demographic challenge.

'Prime Age Workforce Participation' is near all time highs ~83% today vs ~70% in the 1960's. Unemployment is low.

It is also true that school aged kids have a little bit lower participation rates than in the 90's because they spend more time on education, but participation of those kids is still up compared to the 1960s. Its also true that women are a higher fraction of the total today than they were in the 60s.

Everyone is trying to spin a narrative that there are heaps of working age people who would work if the damn immigrants hadn't suppressed their wages, and are now not even trying to work. That's not what I am seeing in this data, and not in the people I know. I literally know 0 people who meet that description. I am seeing people working many hours at one or multiple jobs, and feeling stressed out... and still having trouble affording mortgages, and I see that EVERYWHERE in many of my friends and family.

I agree there IS a problem. We are working hard but not getting the good life. I just don't agree with the 'Its the immigrants' narrative for why. I think the low labor participation rate IS a big factor, but I think the non-participants are the retirees, and they are also responsible for occupying an increasing share of the housing stock. That's why everyone has to work harder and gets less.

The slave masters want foreign workers; it's not always a question of price either.
My Jewish, rich, female friend in a small rich town in Connecticut which is a train commute to Manhattan hired an illegal alien nanny for her children.
Why? Because it's likely she needed to feel superior, feel like she's "helping someone", she also needed to pay someone less than the white WASP towns people where she lived, and of course, as a Jew, she deep down hates white American WASPs.
She wanted someone who would be slightly submissive to her, as latina servants generally are.

clambo says

My Jewish, rich, female friend in a small rich town in Connecticut which is a train commute to Manhattan hired an illegal alien nanny for her children.
Why? Because it's likely she needed to feel superior, feel like she's "helping someone", she also needed to pay someone less than the white WASP

And taxes.

Illegals are immune to prosecution for crimes that would put a citizen in jail:

Blue state prosecutor gives unlicensed illegal immigrant probation for causing deadly car wreck

https://thedailybs.com/2025/05/14/blue-state-prosecutor-gives-unlicensed-illegal-immigrant-probation-for-causing-deadly-car-wreck/

I'm now pretty sure DeficitHawk is actually Iwog.

Patrick says

I'm now pretty sure DeficitHawk is actually Iwog.

Did he escape and survive from being tied to a masthead naked by immense hirsute lesbians after his last 'undercover' operation as Berkeley street investigator at one of their insane, violent protests? I thought they were to sail him out past the Golden Gate and sacrifice him to the Goddess of Bush.

They musta diddled with his brain and turned him into a propaganda dafter.